• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

Status
Not open for further replies.
T

Tim-E

Member
Decided to look up the times in which the winner of the election lost the popular vote:

The 2000 election was the most recent when the candidate who received the greatest number of electoral votes, and thus won the presidency, didn’t win the popular vote. But this scenario has played out in our nation’s history before.

In 1824, John Quincy Adams was elected president despite not winning either the popular vote or the electoral vote. Andrew Jackson was the winner in both categories. Jackson received 38,000 more popular votes than Adams, and beat him in the electoral vote 99 to 84. Despite his victories, Jackson didn’t reach the majority 131 votes needed in the Electoral College to be declared president. In fact, neither candidate did. The decision went to the House of Representatives, which voted Adams into the White House.

In 1876, Rutherford B. Hayes won the election (by a margin of one electoral vote), but he lost the popular vote by more than 250,000 ballots to Samuel J. Tilden.

In 1888, Benjamin Harrison received 233 electoral votes to Grover Cleveland’s 168, winning the presidency. But Harrison lost the popular vote by more than 90,000 votes.

In 2000, George W. Bush was declared the winner of the general election and became the 43rd president, but he didn’t win the popular vote either. Al Gore holds that distinction, garnering about 540,000 more votes than Bush. However, Bush won the electoral vote, 271 to 266.
http://www.factcheck.org/2008/03/presidents-winning-without-popular-vote/
Click to expand...
 
R

RedSwirl

Junior Member
RDreamer said:
Right, a lot of these people just don't understand economics. To them they feel like Europe got into this mess because of spending way too much, and thus had to swallow this hard pill. To them austerity is necessary because of their spending habits. They don't see that the opposite would be the better approach, because it's hard for them to wrap their minds around spending = less deficit in the long run. They think of it like a household. You get into money problems, well, fuck, you have to cut things even if you want them.

In fact a lot of these people bring up Europe as an attack on Obama and the left. They say "You see Europe? If we keep going this way we'll end up like Greece," as you said.

Basically, it's just really hard to explain how their situation was brought about by something entirely unlike our current situation (they gave up their monetary sovereignty), but how austerity they've put themselves into in response to it is in turn like what Republicans want to do.

The other thing is that the Republican base fervently believes that, but you can tell the higher ups and even Romney himself knows you need to government spend in order to get out of a recession. He's just pulling a switcheroo on his base and spending in defense and hoping they don't realize it's actually Keynesianism.
Click to expand...

So, basically, stimulus. Sort of (we never really covered Keynes in school, we were only taught about WWII and the "New Deal" getting us out of the Depression). If that's the case, then the problem with this is that ads (well, Romney's whole campaign line really) have gotten people scared shitless of "Obama's failed stimulus."

Frank the Great said:
both parties here are on the austerity bandwagon, hoping to use fear-mongering about the deficit to obtain policy goals that they are too scared to push otherwise. republicans are using this opportunity to push through an agenda that involves gutting social programs, firing government workers, and eliminating tax deductions that only benefit middle and lower class folk . democrats are attempting to raise taxes on the rich and cut the military, both of which have long been policy goals that they were too terrified to pursue in other political environments.

both parties are generally on the same page though, which is why neither has an interest in pointing to the UK's example of austerity. and i'm sure the top policymakers in each party realize the deficit thing is just a vehicle for each side to push their agenda.
Click to expand...

See, I've always wanted to see one side draw a directly line between cutting the debt and how that helps the economy. If I had a question for the debate, that would probably be it, because I still haven't seen anyone answer it. To me they are still two separate issues.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Frank the Great said:
they are going to bitch and moan and question his legitimacy no matter what happens (see; birth certificate, voter fraud). the rest of the country will move on and accept the president, as we did in 2000.

the great thing about a popular vote loss is that we would not only get salty republican tears, but we would get blatantly hypocritical salty republican tears, which are far more potent.
Click to expand...
You know how politicizing certain things are bad? This is one.
 
P

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
Media is getting more laughable by the day.

Reality: "Obama doing well on the polls"
Media: "Romney has bigger ceiling! Obama in trouble"
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Here are the latest polls from the battleground, updated through the day:

Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (Rasmussen)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 43% (Angus Reid)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Angus Reid)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (CBS News/Quinnipiac)

Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Morning Call/Muhlenberg)

Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Pulse Opinion Research)

Virginia: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Angus Reid)

Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (Pulse Opinion Research)
Click to expand...

Good WI polls.
1 Good OH poll, Angus Reid one not so good but its just 500 LV compared to 1500LV for Quinn.
VA poll is good
CO poll is bad, only because even though its Ras, Ras had O+1 in last poll.
MI/PA done deal.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Plinko said:
I've been saying this for weeks.

Finally the right will try and push for the end of the ludicrous electoral vote.
Click to expand...

The idiots on the right will scream for that but the leaders on the right will realize that the electoral college is totally skewed for them due to the small rural states with no population which have 2 senators and 1 Congressperson.

Instead, they'll take the low-level right-wing seething rage and use it as a 'mandate' to filibuster absolution EVERYTHING that the whitehouse proposes because 'he was not elected by a majority of the electorate'.


(Never mind that was true for George Bush and he pushed through massive tax cuts, 2 wars, and a massive medicare expansion that was a gift to Pharma.)
 
M

MrCheez

President/Creative Director of Grumpyface Studios
daedalius said:
Ugh, rl friend opening up a can of ignorance and anger about Obama on Facebook; I love it.

"Abortion - Men - wear the freaking condom and take responsibility for your actions should it fail - Women - understand that when sex happens babys can too but like the men take the responsibility. FU Pro-Choice
(will make exceptions for rape and death. I know its evil but only because another evil was committed not hypocritical but realistic. Only idiots deal in absolutes . ie Democrats and Women's groups)".
Click to expand...

Only a sith deals in absolutes!
 
T

Tim-E

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Good WI polls.
1 Good OH poll, Angus Reid one not so good but its just 500 LV compared to 1500LV for Quinn.
VA poll is good
CO poll is bad, only because even though its Ras, Ras had O+1 in last poll.
MI/PA done deal.
Click to expand...

I'd classify Wisconsin as a done deal, too. That state was never going to flip.
 
A

Aylinato

Member
RedSwirl said:
So, basically, stimulus. Sort of (we never really covered Keynes in school, we were only taught about WWII and the "New Deal" getting us out of the Depression). If that's the case, then the problem with this is that ads (well, Romney's whole campaign line really) have gotten people scared shitless of "Obama's failed stimulus."



See, I've always wanted to see one side draw a directly line between cutting the debt and how that helps the economy. If I had a question for the debate, that would probably be it, because I still haven't seen anyone answer it. To me they are still two separate issues.
Click to expand...

On the first point, for every dollar the government spends on infrastructure, it is a known fact that it creates at the very least(and this is my most conservative number, given the worst conditions possible) $1.13(give or take some).

It is known that tax cuts, for every dollar cut, given the best case scenario for everything, will only generate .82 cents(give or take some)


Cutting the debt is ok as a policy, but does not really help out during recession/depressions because that is when spending is needed the most
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Tim-E said:
If Romney mistreated people and there's good documentation of it, then I don't really mind if it's made into a bigger story. I try to not get swept up into every story that gets liberal blogs worked up, but most of them gain no traction outside of those sources for a reason. But, the democrat deep within that simply wants to win won't be heartbroken if such a story does come out.
Click to expand...

I agree. This would actually play into the Republican playbook, too. Seeing Romney as an ardent supporter of fetal rights would get more fervor out of people who think he is a secret moderate or pro-choice candidate.
 
D

daedalius

Member
MrCheez said:
Only a sith deals in absolutes!
Click to expand...

I loved how he called out democrats and Women's groups; I was seriously just saying 'what the fuck' to myself.

Maybe instead of telling him how he is just misinformed, I should have told him how he was making an excellent case for all of his points; and it would surely bring people over to his side of things.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
NV early voting favoring Dems

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012...-favors-obama-in-battleground-nevada-20121022

About 53 percent of the voters who turned out on Saturday and Sunday in Clark County, the state's most populous, were Democrats, while just 31 percent were Republicans. The 22-point disparity is higher than the 15 points by which Democrats outnumber Republicans—a sign, the party says, of the field organization Sen. Harry Reid and Nevada Democrats have spent a decade building.
Click to expand...
 
T

Tim-E

Member
daedalius said:
I loved how he called out democrats and Women's groups; I was seriously just saying 'what the fuck' to myself.

Maybe instead of telling him how he is just misinformed, I should have told him how he was making an excellent case for all of his points; and it would surely bring people over to his side of things.
Click to expand...

It's hard to stop yourself from combating the dumb things said on Facebook, but I've learned that it isn't worth it. When presented with sources they will just become more defensive and angry. They won't learn anything because they are dead set in their ideology. The best thing it could achieve is influence someone that's reading it.
 
J

Jadedx

Banned
Question: If Ras always leans right, but shifts back to the consensus near the end of a campaign why are they considered the most accurate? Shouldn't the poller with the record closest to the consensus be the most accurate?
 
M

MrCheez

President/Creative Director of Grumpyface Studios
daedalius said:
I loved how he called out democrats and Women's groups; I was seriously just saying 'what the fuck' to myself.

Maybe instead of telling him how he is just misinformed, I should have told him how he was making an excellent case for all of his points; and it would surely bring people over to his side of things.
Click to expand...

Just tell him he somhow managed to quote the dumbest line in the history of cinema in his rant... Also explain to him the difference between your/you're (caught that in his post)

Tee hee
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Jadedx said:
Question: If Ras always leans right, but shifts back to the consensus near the end of a campaign why are they considered the most accurate? Shouldn't the poller with the record closest to the consensus be the most accurate?
Click to expand...

A lot of times "accuracy" is based upon their polls right before election day, and in most cases nearly everyone will be in the ballpark at that point.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
A post on the DNC Facebook says:
"Get the facts wrong, undermine your relationships with allies, assemble a team committed to endless war: If you're looking for someone who will blunder their way through foreign policy, then Mitt Romney's your guy."

Probably reasonable to assume that Obama will bring up the fact that Romney's foreign policy team is awfully similar to GWB's.
 
A

Arrowgigantic

Member
tumblr_mcawfai3wG1ruwc07o1_500.jpg

There were a number of people there, but no line. In, done, out. +1 for Obama.

Bad news for Obama.
 
D

daedalius

Member
Tim-E said:
It's hard to stop yourself from combating the dumb things said on Facebook, but I've learned that it isn't worth it. When presented with sources they will just become more defensive and angry. They won't learn anything because they are dead set in their ideology. The best thing it could achieve is influence someone that's reading it.
Click to expand...

Well, I didn't try to specifically argue his points; I only told him these things are complicated and he was misinformed. I think that was really the best way I could go. Also the little jab about my wife getting an 'exception' if she was going to die and all that.

I play Warhammer with this guy like, every week almost, and I didn't really know how deep-seated this kind of thinking was in him. Sad, really.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
Tim-E said:
A lot of times "accuracy" is based upon their polls right before election day, and in most cases nearly everyone will be in the ballpark at that point.
Click to expand...

Ras is pretty schizo, as their 2008 polls were dead on, but 2010 was way, way way off.

I think this cycle anyone not polling cellphones is going to be off a bit, probably towards Romney.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
PhoenixDark said:
Obama and Biden will be blitzing Ohio this week; Romney has no appearances scheduled in the state
Click to expand...

Cartoon_soldier just posted a tweet on the previous page showing both Romney and Ryan will be there this week.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
50-45 O in OH

Another poll showing the Ohio race has tightened, but not to the point that Barack Obama has lost his lead over Mitt Romney
Click to expand...

50-45 O in PA

The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll offers a reality check to Republicans hoping to make a run at the Keystone State, showing Mitt Romney close to the president there but still trailing by the kind of margin that's difficult and expensive to overcome this late
Click to expand...

Same reporter in 2 Politico articles today lol
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Post your backlog list!
2
82
3K
TheDrunkenMerchant replied
[Wired] AI Is Already Taking Jobs in the Video Game Industry
2 3 4
195
8K
TommyCronin6969 replied
  • Locked
Apple's organic push towards AAA gaming jeopardizes PC gaming and benefits from this "need" where Xbox tried to reject. Exclusive Games.
Opinion 2
64
5K
Roxkis_ii replied
Show us your gaming setup: 2024 Edition
2 3 4 5
234
42K
Bloobs replied
Spectrum Studio Boss in Hot Water as “Naked Sauna” outlined as Part of Employees Requirements Surface
News Drama Cringe 2 3 4
182
10K
PeteBull replied
Top Bottom