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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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Eidan

Member
The Technomancer said:
From the debate thread:

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/imag...servicepoll_464_romney_embargoed_23102012.gif

qhi7s.gif
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I always find these kind of things interesting. Question though. How many of those polled can say that they know much about Romney or his positions? How much of Obama's support is simply going with the established, well known politician, and opposing the guy they barely know from the party of George W. Bush?
 
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Manmademan

Member
Eidan said:
I always find these kind of things interesting. Question though. How many of those polled can say that they know much about Romney or his positions? How much of Obama's support is simply going with the established, well known politician, and opposing the guy they barely know from the party of George W. Bush?
Click to expand...

doesn't really matter. if obama was fucking up overseas (like say, Bush) they'd want to see him gone and back someone else regardless.

The fact that there's almost unanimous support for Obama overseas means they're doing a lot of things right compared to the prior administration.
 
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Heisenberg

Member
Officerrob said:
The polls where Obama's chances have increased almost 10% over the last 11 days in 538's forecast?
Click to expand...

I'm happy to be talked off a cliff - but the fact that all the individual polls seem to be trending for Romney as far as I can tell. If that keeps up for another 2 weeks . . .
 
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gkryhewy

Member
The rasmussen poll is just their daily tracking poll. It's all or mostly pre-debate. They've been R+2 for awhile, so R+4 is an oddly timed bump.
 
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Manmademan

Member
IGSaint said:
It doesn't seem like it, if people are going to post poll numbers they should know whether it's pre or post debate.
Click to expand...

It's pre debate. Pollsters dont generally reach people until after work- 6 or 7 at night. That debate ended at what, 10:30 eastern? they weren't polling people at 2am here.

I'm happy to be talked off a cliff - but the fact that all the individual polls seem to be trending for Romney as far as I can tell. If that keeps up for another 2 weeks . . .
Click to expand...

Polls tightened after debate 1, but stalled into stability around debate 2. there really hasn't been any significant movement since, and it's unlikely we'll see tangible bumps after debate 3. The aggregate of most polls show a tie or statistical tie nationally for some time now, minus Gallup and Rasmussen.

Gallup is on record as admitting that their likely voter model is heavily dependent on voter enthusiasm (the rest of the polls don't do this, iirc), and Rasmussen has been making shit up for as long as anyone can remember. Their numbers adjust to fit republican talking points then magically fall in line a couple days before the election.
 
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Brinbe

Member
Wish CO was a bit more nailed down, just to take the pressure off OH just a bit. I know it's probably going to Bams anyway, but having that emergency back-up road through NV/CO/IA/WI/NH to 272 would be just as sweet and probably result in a hilariously scary panic in the election-day thread.

And polls have not been trending towards Romney, if anything they've all come around to a small Obama lead, with potential for a bit more based on the debate and even a bit more from Obama's ground game.
 
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electricpirate

Member
Manmademan said:
true, but it IS 15 electoral votes, within the margin of error, and having NC on top of Ohio turns Romneys path from "implausible" to "impossible."

it's worth the investment.
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I agree, it's a long shot, but it shouldn't be abandoned. The damage to the narrative of "pulling out of NC" would counter whatever small effect the money could have in other areas.
 
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GashPrex

NeoGaf-Gold™ Member
I kind of feel bad for Ohioians - I've said all along it will be the deciding state (IMO) and now it seems that the national attention will be zeroing in it - which means lots of ads and other BS for the next 2 weeks.
 
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ascii42

Member
Eidan said:
I always find these kind of things interesting. Question though. How many of those polled can say that they know much about Romney or his positions? How much of Obama's support is simply going with the established, well known politician, and opposing the guy they barely know from the party of George W. Bush?
Click to expand...

That's basically it, I think. It's the guy they know vs. some guy who might be like W.
 
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electricpirate

Member
Brinbe said:
Wish CO was a bit more nailed down, just to take the pressure off OH just a bit. I know it's probably going to Bams anyway, but having that emergency back-up road through NV/CO/IA/WI/NH to 272 would be just as sweet and probably result in a hilariously scary panic in the election-day thread.

And polls have not been trending towards Romney, if anything they've all come around to a small Obama lead, with potential for a bit more based on the debate and even a bit more from Obama's ground game.
Click to expand...

National polls have been ambigous, but State polls have recovered to Obama nicely.
 
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metalslimer

Member
ascii42 said:
That's basically it, I think. It's the guy they know vs. some guy who might be like W.
Click to expand...

Well considering Romney stance on healthcare, I'm sure the rest of the world knows about that as well. Then again, the rest of the world is completely dumbfounded how terrible our system is to begin with. In fact, I would wager that the people around the world have a better idea in general of Romney's policies than many people voting for him or Obama.
 
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electricpirate

Member
Once again, don't focus on a single poll, wait for the data, wait for the state data, put it into an average and look at that.

Perseverating on a single poll, whether it's good or bad isn't going to give you a good idea of what's going on.
 
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Incognito

Troll
ugh. with ppp showing romney +2 and rasmussen +4, isn't it safe to say that if last night's debate doesn't provide a bump for obama the race is pretty much over?
 
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methane47

Member
My Republican colleague on FB with more Choice quotes. This is his current status:

"Even if 'horses and bayonets' sounds funny, it ignores that adm mullen DID request a fleet of 300+ and not continue the trend of 6 new / 20 decommissions per year. So what romney said was true. And it shows how obama continues to ignore his military leaders."
 
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HylianTom

Banned
Brinbe said:
Wish CO was a bit more nailed down, just to take the pressure off OH just a bit. I know it's probably going to Bams anyway, but having that emergency back-up road through NV/CO/IA/WI/NH to 272 would be just as sweet and probably result in a hilariously scary panic in the election-day thread.

And polls have not been trending towards Romney, if anything they've all come around to a small Obama lead, with potential for a bit more based on the debate and even a bit more from Obama's ground game.
Click to expand...

This is, perhaps, the biggest source of my confidence. The guys on PBS last night were saying that Obama's ground game is the best they've ever seen - ever - and that he'd likely be able to get it done just based off of his organization.

Among the various Republican reactions we'll see to this election, they'll learn this time that they've gotta upgrade their own operations. It will be a must if they wish to remain competitive. They'll also likely fight to restrict early voting.
 
H

Heisenberg

Member
Incognito said:
ugh. with ppp showing romney +2 and rasmussen +4, isn't it safe to say that if last night's debate doesn't provide a bump for obama the race is pretty much over?
Click to expand...

This is my question? I understand fivethirtyeight says 70%+ for O but it seems to be the only place I can go where the news is good.

Also, it's going to get really ugly if O loses popular but wins on electoral - I really don't want to see that even if it would be exactly what happened in 2000.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
Incognito said:
ugh. with ppp showing romney +2 and rasmussen +4, isn't it safe to say that if last night's debate doesn't provide a bump for obama the race is pretty much over?
Click to expand...

You might be right, Incog.

Heisenberg said:
This is my question? I understand fivethirtyeight says 70%+ for O but it seems to be the only place I can go where the news is good.

Also, it's going to get really ugly if O loses popular but wins on electoral - I really don't want to see that even if it would be exactly what happened in 2000.
Click to expand...

I'll give you a piece of advice so you don't become another Diablos. Don't watch the polls. Ignorance is bliss, and Obama or Romney will win either way, so why bother worrying about something you can't change? If you really want to do something, you can do something productive like phone banking for Obama's campaign.
 
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Manmademan

Member
HylianTom said:
This is, perhaps, the biggest source of my confidence. The guys on PBS last night were saying that Obama's ground game is the best they've ever seen - ever - and that he'd likely be able to get it done just based off of his organization.

Among the various Republican reactions we'll see to this election, they'll learn this time that they've gotta upgrade their own operations. It will be a must if they wish to remain competitive. They'll also likely fight to restrict early voting.
Click to expand...

I'm in the same boat with you. In states that show a statistical tie among likely voters (florida, CO, maybe NC), a strong ground game which obama has easily adds 1 or 2 points to the total. Romney lacks this advantage entirely, and it's already showing in early voter turnout in Ohio and NC.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Heisenberg said:
This is my question? I understand fivethirtyeight says 70%+ for O but it seems to be the only place I can go where the news is good.

Also, it's going to get really ugly if O loses popular but wins on electoral - I really don't want to see that even if it would be exactly what happened in 2000.
Click to expand...
http://election.princeton.edu/

And these seem to be the only places with good news is because they actually look at the numbers objectively, don't have an agenda of pushing a horse-race narrative, and don't cling to these notions of Romney's non-existent momentum.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
Heisenberg said:
This is my question? I understand fivethirtyeight says 70%+ for O but it seems to be the only place I can go where the news is good.

Also, it's going to get really ugly if O loses popular but wins on electoral - I really don't want to see that even if it would be exactly what happened in 2000.
Click to expand...

Also, hit up the polltrackers (pollster.com), hit up http://election.princeton.edu/ These paint a picture of a tied national race, and Obama winning the swing states, which is why we aren't freaking out over here.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Clevinger said:
bad news for chickens
Click to expand...

Bad news for my longevity here on PoliGAF. This crap has gotten out of hand. If people are so worried, do something about it!. Donate! Sign-up and work for the campaign through their dashboard! Bitching for hours on end because a poll might move 1% (which considering margin of error means NOTHING) is ridiculous.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
He got some nerve

McCain: Obama’s ‘Bayonets And Horses’ Remark A ‘Cheap Shot’ And I ‘Resent It’
"Frankly, I don't understand why the president wants to take these kind of cheap shots -- bayonets and horses, what's that all about?" he said. "You know, when I debated then-Senator Obama I didn't criticize or belittle his lack of experience on national security issues. And he seemed to take these kind of cheap shots. ... I kind of resent it."

"I think you should treat your opponent with some respect. ... It was small ball."
Click to expand...
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/mccain-obamas-bayonets-horses-remark-cheap-shot-i
 
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