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[Forever]

I think people on here have too much faith in Obama. He's been a good President, but he's not (currently) the game changer that someone like Clinton was.

If the economy recovers and is doing well when he leaves office you can bet that Obama will absolutely be our Reagan.

 

[Brinbe]

That Bama ground game... http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/09/3042391/president-obamas-campaign-makes.html

President Obama’s campaign makes massive Florida push for absentee votes

President Barack Obama’s campaign, eager to bank as many early votes as possible in Florida, is launching an unprecedented program to encourage supporters to vote by absentee ballot right away.

The "Vote Now!" initiative aims to spread the word that voters can go to their local elections office, request an absentee ballot, and complete and return the ballot on the spot. That option has been available for years, but this is the first time a campaign has organized a statewide effort to promote the process.

"We’re encouraging voters to not wait and cast their ballot today," said Ashley Walker, Florida director of the Obama for America campaign. "We will be utilizing all of the resources we have available to us to ensure folks know about this option, and understand how it works. We want to make this election as easily accessible and open to any eligible voter as possible."

Walker said they will spread the word through phone banks, door-to-door canvassing and other outreach efforts.

The Legislature and Gov. Rick Scott last year cut the number of early voting days from 14 to eight and eliminated early voting on the Sunday before election day — over the objections of Democratic leaders. The Florida Obama campaign decided in response to make more of a push on absentee ballots, and encourage people to treat them much like in-person early voting, which doesn’t start until Oct. 27.

The deadline to register for the Nov. 6 election ended Tuesday, and now comes the phase where campaigns will feverishly work to turn out voters.

Florida Democrats have enjoyed a significant advantage over Republicans with in-person early votes since that option began in 2002, while Republicans have long had an advantage with absentee voting.

Early absentee ballot statistics this year show Democrats significantly cutting into that traditional GOP advantage in Florida — in 2008 Republicans requested 15 percent more absentee ballots than Democrats, but so far this year Republicans have requested only 4 percent more — and the "Vote Now!" effort underway quietly for several weeks could help continue that trend.

"This is just another way that you can vote," Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections Earl Lennard, a Republican, said of the effort.

Last year, Lennard noticed people picking up mail-in ballots in person and filling them out in the parking lot before returning them, so he added privacy booths inside for people to complete the ballot. The more people who vote early either with absentee ballots or at early voting locations, Lennard said, means less chance for people to show up at the wrong precinct on election day.

Pasco County elections supervisor Brian Corley earlier this month said many voters were confused about a recorded call from the Obama campaign encouraging them to visit their elections office, request absentee ballots, and cast them on the spot. He said some voters did not understand the difference between voting at early voting sites, which begins Oct. 27, and voting in-person using absentee ballots, which is already underway.

Absentee ballots can be turned in up until 7 p.m. on election day.

The Obama campaign kicks off the "Vote Now!" campaign Wednesday with events featuring volunteers and supporters casting absentee ballots in St. Petersburg, Orlando, Jacksonville, Miami, Sarasota, Pensacola and St. Lucie County.

Meanwhile, Republicans are touting a much more robust voter mobilization effort in Florida than they mounted four years ago.

"Just yesterday, we surpassed nine million voter contacts in Florida alone. The unprecedented support for Gov. Romney is seen in the hours volunteers have dedicated to making phone calls and knocking on doors, and it was on full display last weekend as thousands of Florida voters, who know we can’t afford four more years like the last four years, came out to hear more about his plan for a stronger middle class," said campaign spokesman Jeff Bechdel, referring to Romney’s three-day swing through the state. "The infrastructure we have in place now to contact voters will be a powerful tool in our ’get out the vote’ efforts in the coming weeks."

 

[eBay Huckster]

Personally I think he will win 300+ evs. That to me is a blowout.

even assuming the election-day results are 2 points closer than pre-debate across the board (i.e., a 4-4.5-point PV win rather than the 6-6.5 that was starting to become the norm) i've still got him winning 332-347 EVs and barely, barely, all kinds of barely winning NC

the pre-debate numbers were arguably enough for him to threaten 370 w/ the progressively lowering republican enthusiasm - missouri, montana, and arguably indiana and arizona were all trending closer.

 

[aronnov reborn]

Romney can win ALL FOUR of those and still lose.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Glm

that's why i didnt say he would win. he just has a good chance right now. and if he got those 4 states i think he'll win and grab another state. Like NH that he's up in right now by a couple points.

 

[ascii42]

even assuming the election-day results are 2 points closer than pre-debate across the board (i.e., a 4-4.5-point PV win rather than the 6-6.5 that was starting to become the norm) i've still got him winning 332-347 EVs and barely, barely, all kinds of barely winning NC

the pre-debate numbers were arguably enough for him to threaten 370 w/ the progressively lowering republican enthusiasm - missouri, montana, and arguably indiana and arizona were all trending closer.

370 would be pretty crazy, but I'd believe it if Obama had come out from the debate looking better

 

[Aaron Strife]

He does if his support gets complacent and just tells pollsters that they approve of him and don't actually vote.

Approval =/= Votes

I have to imagine in this day and age if you're taking a phone survey on your political opinions, you probably care to some degree about politics.

 

[B-Dubs]

I...I just an Ann Coulter robo call...I feel dirty...I need a shower...

 

[Stinkles]

Man, if Texas ever goes blue...I don't know how you get past that. That seems insurmountable, you'd have to get basically the entire midwest solid red

Latin Americans in Texas, less barbeque, more oysters.

I...I just an Ann Coulter robo call...I feel dirty...I need a shower...

Yeah, well serves you right for touching yourself during an Anne Coulter robocall.

 

[RDreamer]

That Bama ground game... http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/09/3042391/president-obamas-campaign-makes.html

That's pretty awesome. I think Wisconsin has some early voting stuff too. I'm contemplating doing that, but I need to find more info on if I can just hand it in right there or not. I don't feel like mailing a ballot.

 

[AniHawk]

I...I just an Ann Coulter robo call...I feel dirty...I need a shower...

no! that's where she'll show up next! you have seen the grudge, right?

 

[Cloudy]

Last post of last page:

I think people on here have too much faith in Obama. He's been a good President, but he's not (currently) the game changer that someone like Clinton was.

What were Clinton's tangible achievements for progressives outside of a good economy (which is no small thing)? Obama has quite a few. Obviously changing times have a bit to do with some of the social issue achievements but they're on his record nonetheless

 

[Stinkles]

no! that's where she'll show up next! you have seen the grudge, right?

Dude, imagine washing your hair and accidentally grabbing her Adam's Apple.


Shivers.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

that's why i didnt say he would win. he just has a good chance right now. and if he got those 4 states i think he'll win and grab another state. Like NH that he's up in right now by a couple points.

The poll average for Obama in NH right now is a 10 point lead. The most recent NH poll with post-debate numbers had him up six.

 

[B-Dubs]

no! that's where she'll show up next! you have seen the grudge, right?

God...I live in NYC...I'm supposed to be safe from her! But seriously, wtf am I getting robo calls from her for? I hung up when I heard her name and didn't stick around and listen, maybe I should have. Then again if I did my brain would have exploded.

 

[speculawyer]

Once Texas goes demographically blue, the GOP will be forced to review its core positions and completely abandon its Southern Strategy (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_..._of_southern_voters_bolster_its_chances_.html), lest it be replaced by another party.

If they're smart, they'll realize they need to do this sooner rather than later.

There are people on the right that have admitted that this is the last presidential election where they can actually run on just trying to get as many angry white conservatives as possible. The demographic shifts will make it a hopeless strategy in the future.

They'll have have to switch. Perhaps they can make a libertarian shift on immigration if they can Sister-Soulja their nativist base. They can then play up the anti-abortion angle with the heavily Catholic latino vote. They might be able to cobble together a majority with that. George W Bush tried to lead them on this path but the base rejected it.

 

[Black Republican]

7.3% unemployment on gallup? lolzz wut

 

[Cloudy]

370 would be pretty crazy, but I'd believe it if Obama had come out from the debate looking better

He didn't win 370 in a gimme year for Dems. Come on, folks. 332 seems to be his maximum looking at projection maps with a month to go..

 

[Stinkles]

God...I live in NYC...I'm supposed to be safe from her! But seriously, wtf am I getting robo calls from her for? I hung up when I heard her name and didn't stick around and listen, maybe I should have. Then again if I did my brain would have exploded.

It never forgives. It never forgets.

 

[Cloudy]

7.2% unemployment on gallup? lolzz wut

They get those figures the same way the government does. It's a phone poll. BLS does 50,000 households while Gallup probably does a lot less. The margin of error gets larger the smaller the sample size is.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I have to imagine in this day and age if you're taking a phone survey on your political opinions, you probably care to some degree about politics.

I don't want to argue too much on this point.

I'm just saying that when someone says, "No way he loses with a 53% approval rating" I'm calling into question if that turns into votes, 1 for 1.

I seriously doubt it does but hey, what do I know?

 

[Officerrob]

I envy those who don't live in swing states. The T.V. ads were bad enough, but now the robo-calls, pollsters, and calls from the campaign are totaling about 8-10 calls per day here in southwest VA. It's really out of control.

 

[speculawyer]

7.3% unemployment on gallup? lolzz wut

Clearly the Chicago thugs got to the people at gallup. Jack Welch knows what's up.

 

[Trakdown]

That Bama ground game... http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/09/3042391/president-obamas-campaign-makes.html

Anything to make voting in Florida easier. Between Scott's shenanigans and a 7 page ballot any help is good.

 

[Snake]

because 90% of GAF isn't a lib or socialist?

The other 10% of GAF is clearly in favor of a single-party clerical fascist dictatorship by your level of thinking.

that's why i didnt say he would win. he just has a good chance right now. and if he got those 4 states i think he'll win and grab another state. Like NH that he's up in right now by a couple points.

Romney certainly has a better chance right now than he had for most of the race. But if you're relying on New Hampshire for his victory you're going to be sorely disappointed.

 

[Black Republican]

I envy those who don't live in swing states. The T.V. ads were bad enough, but now the robo-calls, pollsters, and calls from the campaign are totaling about 8-10 calls per day here in southwest VA. It's really out of control.

suck it up bird!

 

[speculawyer]

I envy those who don't live in swing states. The T.V. ads were bad enough, but now the robo-calls, pollsters, and calls from the campaign are totaling about 8-10 calls per day here in southwest VA. It's really out of control.

One of my biggest compliments to George Bush is a hearty thanks for getting the "Do Not Call List" law past. But that said, the politicians did leave a huge loophole in there for themselves. They should really plug up that loophole.

 

[Magni]

There are people on the right that have admitted that this is the last presidential election where they can actually run on just trying to get as many angry white conservatives as possible. The demographic shifts will make it a hopeless strategy in the future.

They'll have have to switch. Perhaps they can make a libertarian shift on immigration if they can Sister-Soulja their nativist base. They can then play up the anti-abortion angle with the heavily Catholic latino vote. They might be able to cobble together a majority with that. George W Bush tried to lead them on this path but the base rejected it.

The Catholic base among Latino voters, as well as high religious levels among black voters could constitute a new base for the GOP, if these two groups manage to forget what the GOP has been spouting since the Goldwater years. Religious levels on the whole are decreasing though (cf the latest Pew stat), so the Republican party might also need to reconsider its fierce opposition on issues such as abortion or gay marriage over the next decades.

I envy those who don't live in swing states. The T.V. ads were bad enough, but now the robo-calls, pollsters, and calls from the campaign are totaling about 8-10 calls per day here in southwest VA. It's really out of control.

Hey, at least your vote matters!

 

[eBay Huckster]

He didn't win 370 in a gimme year for Dems. Come on, folks. 332 seems to be his maximum looking at current polls with a month to go..

the only reason he didn't win 376 instead of 365 that year was because he lost a state by literally 3,000 votes, and GOP enthusiasm was arguably looking *lower* than 2008 until the first debate

 

[RDreamer]

I envy those who don't live in swing states. The T.V. ads were bad enough, but now the robo-calls, pollsters, and calls from the campaign are totaling about 8-10 calls per day here in southwest VA. It's really out of control.

Between the wife and I, we've only got 1 call total. TV is pretty fucking hard to watch now, though.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I don't want to argue too much on this point.

I'm just saying that when someone says, "No way he loses with a 53% approval rating" I'm calling into question if that turns into votes, 1 for 1.

I seriously doubt it does but hey, what do I know?

You do have a point, especially since there's still a general sense that Obama's got it in the bag, but I have to imagine the horserace numbers would track pretty closely to approval. I feel like anyone who cares enough to have an opinion of Obama is going to care enough to vote.

7.2% unemployment on gallup? lolzz wut

October surprise

 

[pigeon]

I don't want to argue too much on this point.

I'm just saying that when someone says, "No way he loses with a 53% approval rating" I'm calling into question if that turns into votes, 1 for 1.

I seriously doubt it does but hey, what do I know?

I think it's funny, because the GOP was making the same argument when he was drastically overperforming his approval rating -- "people who don't approve of Obama but are voting for him are going to peel off in the end." Now he's underperforming it briefly. Frankly, I think the takeaway is that elections really are choices, not referendums, or at least that this one is. That said, a spread of 5% between approval and vote share is likely to close in some direction -- just as the previous one closed to some degree when his approval ticked up after the DNC.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Between the wife and I, we've only got 1 call total. TV is pretty fucking hard to watch now, though.

i'm actually fairly sure i've gotten at least a dozen calls (in central ohio), i just haven't answered any of them

commercial breaks are aggravating as all hell though

7.3% unemployment on gallup? lolzz wut

eh, gallup's employment questions usually aren't a particularly accurate indicator of anything

 

[Cloudy]

Internals of the UNF FL poll

http://www.scribd.com/doc/109614609/Toplines-10-10-12

Those Medicare numbers are devastating for Romney if accurate

 

[reilo]

Internals of the UNF FL poll

http://www.scribd.com/doc/109614609/Toplines-10-10-12

Q9. Which presidential candidate do you trust more on the issue of strengthening Medicare?

Barack Obama 51%
Mitt Romney 35%

.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Last post of last page:

What were Clinton's tangible achievements for progressives outside of a good economy (which is no small thing)? Obama has quite a few. Obviously changing times have a bit to do with some of the social issue achievements but they're on his record nonetheless

I think Clinton's power lies in his high approval rating and his ability to truly connect with people. That's very, very powerful for a politician. His presence can force a lot of things that someone like Obama can't. If Clinton ran for like 12 more terms, he'd probably win all of them in a blowout.

If the economy recovers and is doing well when he leaves office you can bet that Obama will absolutely be our Reagan.

The reason why I doubt this is because Hillary is likely to run when Obama leaves. It's not easy to leave a legacy when you're the President stuck between two Clintons (even if you're a great President). Obama has been pretty good, but will he stand the test of time? I'm not sure about that. A lot of our opinions are skewed because most of us are too young to remember the last good President besides Clinton.

 

[Forever]

The reason why I doubt this is because Hillary is likely to run when Obama leaves. It's not easy to leave a legacy when you're the President stuck between two Clintons (even if you're a great President). Obama has been pretty good, but will he stand the test of time? I'm not sure about that. A lot of our opinions are skewed because most of us are too young to remember the last good President besides Clinton.

If Hillary succeeds Obama that will only enrich both of their legacies by intertwining them. American Presidential politics from 1989-2024 will be remembered and probably taught as one cohesive narrative.

 

[Cloudy]

I think Clinton's power lies in his high approval rating and his ability to truly connect with people. That's very, very powerful for a politician. His presence can force a lot of things that someone like Obama can't. If Clinton ran for like 12 more terms, he'd probably win all of them in a blowout.

That's great but what great Democratic reforms/ideals did Clinton accomplish with all his political power? That is how I judge presidents besides the economy, judicial appointments and national security. What on their agenda did they accomplish?

 

[TacticalFox88]

I think Clinton's power lies in his high approval rating and his ability to truly connect with people. That's very, very powerful for a politician. His presence can force a lot of things that someone like Obama can't. If Clinton ran for like 12 more terms, he'd probably win all of them in a blowout.


The reason why I doubt this is because Hillary is likely to run when Obama leaves. It's not easy to leave a legacy when you're the President stuck between two Clintons (even if you're a great President). Obama has been pretty good, but will he stand the test of time? I'm not sure about that. A lot of our opinions are skewed because most of us are too young to remember the last good President besides Clinton.

You're asking if the first African American President whoose made significant social changes and a record that has the potential to be incredible if he'll stand the test of time?


lol.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

If Hillary succeeds Obama that will only enrich both of their legacies by intertwining them. American Presidential politics from 1989-2024 will be remembered and probably taught as one cohesive narrative.

I see what you did there...

 

[Black Mamba]

So, polling good for Obama today so far. Couple more days of this and hopefully some of you calm down

 

[Stinkles]

There are people on the right that have admitted that this is the last presidential election where they can actually run on just trying to get as many angry white conservatives as possible. The demographic shifts will make it a hopeless strategy in the future.

They'll have have to switch. Perhaps they can make a libertarian shift on immigration if they can Sister-Soulja their nativist base. They can then play up the anti-abortion angle with the heavily Catholic latino vote. They might be able to cobble together a majority with that. George W Bush tried to lead them on this path but the base rejected it.

That admission is in itself a tacit admission that it's, for the party as a beast at least, all about money, since they are willing to squeeze the party into any shape whatsoever, simply to retain a chance at owning the control of the economy, regardless of what happens to the social elements of that economy. "They" in this case being the GOP's amazingly small and wealthy constituency of power. They don't give a fuck about abortion, healthcare, science or the death penalty.

What they care about is the most profitable angle. Which is why I think rank and file Republicans are identifying more and more as independents, because the party is constantly changing and driving ina different direction and they aren't quite sure how to identify with it. Which is also one of the reasons for the preponderence of single issue voters. Can't keep them interested in the whole platform, but we can contain hotbutton bulletpoints and keep it sticky for those passionate small constituencies. Abortion, Jesus, Racism etc. It's also part of the reason Romney is all over the fucking place, on a daily basis.

He can sustain all of those bullet points and bounce between them. Single issue voters only have to think about one flip-flop and they can ignore the ridiculous picture that presents to everyone else.

At this point the Republican Party is unrecognizable, but more than that, it's difficult to contain visually. It's like a political tesseract. The Dems on the other hand have always been a bit like that - a big clump of really varied voters and in some ways just as hard to identify. But they're rarely single issue.

 

[Zzoram]

I know it would never happen, but are former presidents allowed to be the VP for a future president after they've served their 2 terms?

 

[Black Republican]

So, polling good for Obama today so far. Couple more days of this and hopefully some of you calm down

after Obama wins reelection

"why did he loose (insert state) by less votes than in 2008?!?!"

 

[SmokeMaxX]

I envy those who don't live in swing states. The T.V. ads were bad enough, but now the robo-calls, pollsters, and calls from the campaign are totaling about 8-10 calls per day here in southwest VA. It's really out of control.

Officerrobo-call
Member
(Today, 12:50 PM)

 

[TacticalFox88]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7EyYhbLn98&feature=g-all-u

I fucking love Bill Clinton.

 

[smurfx]

.

those numbers might be even better for obama if he actually called out romney on his obama cutting 700 billion from medicare lie.

 

[Cloudy]

IBD Daily Poll R+5

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

Polling period: 10/4 - 10/9
Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%
Sample Size: 757 likely voters (identified from 873 registered voters with party affiliation of 39% Dem, 31% GOP, 30% Ind.)

 

[RustyNails]

I think people on here have too much faith in Obama. He's been a good President, but he's not (currently) the game changer that someone like Clinton was.

Clinton wasn't a game changer for his time either. He was slightly left of Reagan, and the liberals butchered him over welfare reform. In fact, Clinton couldn't get anything much done in domestic policy in his second term. Dat lewinsky scandal. For foreign policy, he blew the call in Somalia. He blew the call in Rwanda. Only operation Allied Force was success (Serbian conflict).

He is fondly remembered for being a nice white southern boy who didn't fuck up the country.

 

[StopMakingSense]

7.3% unemployment on gallup? lolzz wut

Looks like Axelrod's check went through.


Gallups UE thing is noisy and only loosely correlates to BLS. It's kinda okay for seeing trends over time, though, in a kinda, if you squint, sort of way.

 

[Black Mamba]

Who is IDP and how does their five day tracker have only 750 respondents.