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[TheHeretic]

You guys suck. Period. Stop panicking like little children. The numbers right now aren't much different than pre debate or pre convention. The race is gonna stabilize pretty soon because Romney peaked for 2 nights, which is what Nate's graph is showing. They're taking into account the laughable Pew poll which showed 8 million people switching Party IDs in one night, and the TIBB poll that has this written at the bottom: *Small sample size. Interpret with caution.

Considering his debate performance has led to one of the most dramatic shifts in a campaign ever, and Romney is exploding out of the polls, its entirely possible (if not likely) that Romney is going to take this election without a turnaround from Obama.

 

[XenodudeX]

Yeah he's exploding out of the polls, and still losing. Give me a break.

 

[Suikoguy]

Considering his debate performance has led to one of the most dramatic shifts in a campaign ever, and Romney is exploding out of the polls, its entirely possible (if not likely) that Romney is going to take this election without a turnaround from Obama.

Yep, and this is why i've avoided posting lately.

Just WTF.

 

[Kinvara]

Considering his debate performance has led to one of the most dramatic shifts in a campaign ever, and Romney is exploding out of the polls, its entirely possible (if not likely) that Romney is going to take this election without a turnaround from Obama.

"exploding"? really?

 

[Cloudy]

Latest 2008 Silver poll I could find was from October 8th
http://www.flickr.com/photos/blakespot/2923906677/

89% win chance

I stand corrected. Obama was in the 80s a week ago though lol. Also Obama doesn't have IN and NC (and maybe FL and VA) this cycle so obviously his odds SHOULD be worse.

 

[Downhome]

"exploding"? really?

The drastic shift in only one week, one of the biggest shifts ever, I think can be considered an explosion. Time will tell if it lasts and continues.

 

[Cloudy]

The drastic shift in only one week, one of the biggest shifts ever, I think can be considered an explosion. Time will tell if it lasts and continues.

Actially, It's about the same shift Obama had after the conventions

 

[Magni]

It's not completely impossible.

Texas as a state has pretty low voter turnout, and that combined with a dramatic increase in Latino voters in Texas lately will change the dominant demographics. IIRC, at the rate things are going, Latinos will be the majority (surpassing Anglos) by ~2016 (? I'll need to verify the exact year, but it's basically within the next few years).

EDIT: We're already seeing a shift in party voting in rural cities. Austin, of course, is overwhelmingly democrat, and Houston is rising fast. It was funny in 2008 where those votes were counted first and Texas showed up blue in the voter tracking maps on CNN and the like for a few hours. Wouldn't be surprised if it stays for a little while longer this time around.

http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2008G.html

Voter turnouts on the whole are so bad.

 

[pigeon]

Considering his debate performance has led to one of the most dramatic shifts in a campaign ever, and Romney is exploding out of the polls, its entirely possible (if not likely) that Romney is going to take this election without a turnaround from Obama.

In top 9 tipping point states (CO FL VA OH IA WI PA NH NV) RCP has Obama up 2.3% on average, Pollster.com 2.8%, 538 "now-cast" 2.4%.

Field goal.

Touchdown.

Do the math.

Unless you're suggesting that Romney is going to keep gaining in the polls at this rate.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Field goal.

Touchdown.

Do the math.

Unless you're suggesting that Romney is going to keep gaining in the polls at this rate.

I wonder what happens when you remove PA (which Silver has Obama's win chance at 90% for) from that average

 

[el retorno]

Unless you're suggesting that Romney is going to keep gaining in the polls at this rate.

That's what the people panicking think. It's irrational.

 

[Clevinger]

That's what the people panicking think. It's irrational.

When he trashes Obama (and Biden) in the rest of the debates, why wouldn't he? Él ganará.

 

[pigeon]

When he trashes Obama (and Biden) in the rest of the debates, why wouldn't he? Él ganará.

Dat fundamental attribution error.

 

[Clevinger]

Dat fundamental attribution error.

Do you mean Obama has a clear floor above Romney because of fundamentals? I hope you're right, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[pigeon]

Do you mean Obama has a clear floor above Romney because of fundamentals? I hope you're right, but I'm not holding my breath.

In this case, what I meant was that it's probably a mistake to assume that that debate performance was the rule and not the exception, especially when there are good reasons to expect the first debate to be a performance nadir for Obama. So I would not, personally, expect it to repeat -- and so I would not expect the consequences to repeat either. Frankly, for reasons previously stated, even if the debate did go equally badly I wouldn't expect the consequences to repeat -- a lot of Romney's gains should essentially have been considered baked in and likely to occur at some point in any case.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

What if the reason that Obama bombed in the debates is because he sub-consciously is spent and has no desire to carry on as President?

He has easily been the most questioned, berated, "can't do anything right" President in my lifetime. They were trying to de-legitimize his Presidency when he was President-Elect status.

And most of these attacks have NOTHING to do with his policies.

I wonder if he is emotionally gassed and it came out in the debate...

 

[littleworm]

Just got back from an interesting lecture on the electoral college, its a much more involved process than I would of imagined, and it opens the door for some shady stuff to happen.

 

[fallagin]

Where can I watch a recording of todays warren/brown debate?

 

[Frank the Great]

The next debate cant be as bad for obummer, simply because of expectations.

 

[Half and half]

He just needs a tie or small win/loss. Just deliver them lines with some god damned conviction and he'll be fine.

 

[pigeon]

What if the reason that Obama bombed in the debates is because he sub-consciously is spent and has no desire to carry on as President?

He has easily been the most questioned, berated, "can't do anything right" President in my lifetime. They were trying to de-legitimize his Presidency when he was President-Elect status.

And most of these attacks have NOTHING to do with his policies.

I wonder if he is emotionally gassed and it came out in the debate...

Plus, it's gotta be pretty tough for him now that his wife doesn't love him any more.

Just got back from an interesting lecture on the electoral college, its a much more involved process than I would of imagined, and it opens to door for some shady stuff to happen.

Oh, yeah. I am pretty excited to see how many faithless electors we get this year. Imagine if it went to 269-269 and then somebody cast their vote for Ron Paul.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Plus, it's gotta be pretty tough for him now that his wife doesn't love him anymore.

I'm being serious.

 

[Downhome]

It would be amazing to have an election, this one or one in the future, to end up being tied at 269.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Gwg

 

[Kinvara]

It would be amazing to have an election, this one or one in the future, to end up being tied at 269.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Gwg

More like terrifying.

 

[tranciful]

So are you guys still thinking Obama's safe in his impenetrable fortress?

 

[Dude Abides]

What if the reason that Obama bombed in the debates is because he sub-consciously is spent and has no desire to carry on as President?

He has easily been the most questioned, berated, "can't do anything right" President in my lifetime. They were trying to de-legitimize his Presidency when he was President-Elect status.

And most of these attacks have NOTHING to do with his policies.

I wonder if he is emotionally gassed and it came out in the debate...

You spell pretty well for a four year old.

 

[jbug617]

Where can I watch a recording of todays warren/brown debate?

They have some videos up on http://www.necn.com/pages/video

 

[Wray]

Ya.

Dem demographics.

 

[PantherLotus]

wtf has happened to this thread

 

[B-Dubs]

wtf has happened to this thread

Fear.

 

[fallagin]

They have some videos up on http://www.necn.com/pages/video

Oh thank you, I'm gonna check them out right now.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

You spell pretty well for a four year old.

Awesome bro.

No real response, just a personal attack. You must be a Republican.

 

[schuelma]

Field goal.

Touchdown.

Do the math.

Unless you're suggesting that Romney is going to keep gaining in the polls at this rate.

I don't think that is nearly as rosy as you think it is.

The RCP averages in Florida and Virginia are essentially tied right now. Obama's lead is under a point in Ohio (though I concede there has been only one really reputable poll so far and that showed Obama up 4.). It is basically tied in Colorado.

If Romney wins Florida, Virginia, and Ohio he needs 4 more electoral votes, which he gets from Colorado.

Right now I agree it doesn't look likely because I think Ohio is still an uphill battle. But if we get polls this week showing Romney within 1 or 2 points, him winning is not nearly as far fetched as you think.

 

[Dude Abides]

Awesome bro.

No real response, just a personal attack. You must be a Republican.

Whoosh.

 

[Raine]

That "Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts" part of the title ended up being more literal than I thought it would be :|

 

[Cloudy]

Lmao at the new FLOHVA twitter handle

@chucktodd: Look at this new twitter handle. Trouble? RT @FLOHVA: @chucktodd, dad, it's me.

 

[pigeon]

I'm being serious.

I know. I wasn't.

This comparison is really a direct lift from Ta-Nehisi Coates, but he's not here right now, so. Here's James Fallows, a month before the debate:

He faces the temptation not to prepare. A president has every reason to postpone or avoid mock-debate sessions. The schedule is full; the necessity to play-act is demeaning; emergencies crop up. And thus a president avoids practicing skills that are indeed different from what he does day by day. "This is one of the reasons incumbent presidents tend to lose the first debate," David Axelrod told me. "Generally, they have not had a debate for four years. You do your press conferences, but there are no time limits or rebuttals. We went through the most gifted sparring partner anyone has ever had last time, in Hillary Clinton. We don't have that this time." Even allowing for possible flattery of a former foe who is now an invaluable member of the Obama team, the point remains: an incumbent president is never challenged the way a mere candidate is.

Here's the New York Times, a few days after:

Like other presidents, Mr. Obama's debate preparations were hindered by his day job, his practice sessions often canceled or truncated because of events, advisers said. One session took place just after he addressed a service for the four Americans slain in Libya, leaving him distracted.

Mr. Obama does not like debates to begin with, aides have long said, viewing them as media-driven gamesmanship. He did not do all that well in 2008 but benefited from Senator John McCain's grumpy performances. Mr. Obama made clear to advisers that he was not happy about debating Mr. Romney, whom he views with disdain. It was something to endure, rather than an opportunity, aides said.

Why do we need more theories?

 

[el retorno]

Just got back from an interesting lecture on the electoral college, its a much more involved process than I would of imagined, and it opens the door for some shady stuff to happen.

Are you talking about electors changing their votes?

 

[SolKane]

What are the chances of Texas going for Obama?

Anecdotal, but even in the burbs I'm seeing more Obama signs than Romney signs. Which is interesting given that most of the local and state signs are all for Republicans. In other words, give it time.

It's not completely impossible.
EDIT: We're already seeing a shift in party voting in urban areas. Austin, of course, is overwhelmingly democrat, and Houston is rising fast. It was funny in 2008 where those votes were counted first and Texas showed up blue in the voter tracking maps on CNN and the like for a few hours. Wouldn't be surprised if it stays for a little while longer this time around.

Every metro area in Texas went blue in 2008 except Ft Worth, IIRC.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I know. I wasn't.

This comparison is really a direct lift from Ta-Nehisi Coates, but he's not here right now, so. Here's James Fallows, a month before the debate:

Here's the New York Times, a few days after:

Why do we need more theories?

It's hard to get up for competition when you're already the champ. See: Rocky 3.

 

[RustyNails]

I don't think that is nearly as rosy as you think it is.

The RCP averages in Florida and Virginia are essentially tied right now. Obama's lead is under a point in Ohio (though I concede there has been only one really reputable poll so far and that showed Obama up 4.). It is basically tied in Colorado.

If Romney wins Florida, Virginia, and Ohio he needs 4 more electoral votes, which he gets from Colorado.

Right now I agree it doesn't look likely because I think Ohio is still an uphill battle. But if we get polls this week showing Romney within 1 or 2 points, him winning is not nearly as far fetched as you think.

If Romney wins Florida, Virginia and Ohio and Obama wins the rest, Romney still needs 19 more votes. If Romney wins Colorado and New Hampshire/Iowa, he still loses to Obama. That's the crazy uphill Battle Romney is up against.

I think we've played this electoral math game a thousand times now.

 

[schuelma]

If Romney wins Florida, Virginia and Ohio and Obama wins the rest, Romney still needs 19 more votes. If Romney wins Colorado and New Hampshire/Iowa, he still loses to Obama. That's the crazy uphill Battle Romney is up against.

I don't think that is correct. If Romney wins those 3 states, I have him at 266 (I'm assuming a NC win).

 

[Cloudy]

If Romney wins Florida, Virginia and Ohio and Obama wins the rest, Romney still needs 19 more votes. If Romney wins Colorado and New Hampshire/Iowa, he still loses to Obama. That's the crazy uphill Battle Romney is up against.

I think we've played this electoral math game a thousand times now.

I don't think Romney can win OH without winning Wisconsin as well

 

[littleworm]

Are you talking about electors changing their votes?

Mostly, but more so the second campaign that goes on to make sure they vote loyally, or attempts to make them change their vote. Apparently the Birther movement was going all out to make people change their vote away from Obama is 2008.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Governor Dayton remembers Senator Paul Wellstone.

 

[HyperionX]

Electoral college map still looks like this:

Without Rasmussen it looks like this:

http://electoral-vote.com/

I don't see what the hoopla is all about. If Romney somehow gets significantly better than he is at now, maybe he'll have a chance. Right now he is still destined to lose. Just August-level doomed instead of September-level doomed.

 

[Wall]

President Obama should take notes from Elizabeth Warren. That is how you sell the Democratic platform and debate a moderate Republican.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3SREj4atlFU

Don't give me the line that Massachusetts is a blue state either. Warren is basically selling the boilerplate platform of the Democratic Party. What she is arguing should play anywhere if you go by the polling of peoples' opinions and their priorities.

 

[Puddles]

If Romney wins Florida, Virginia and Ohio and Obama wins the rest, Romney still needs 19 more votes. If Romney wins Colorado and New Hampshire/Iowa, he still loses to Obama. That's the crazy uphill Battle Romney is up against.

I think we've played this electoral math game a thousand times now.

Are you giving Obama North Carolina in this model? Because he isn't winning that state.

If Obama gets NV, CO, NM, IA, WI, and PA, but Romney gets OH, FL, VA, and NC, then Romney is at 266. He would just need to flip one of the smaller states in Obama's column at that point.

 

[Incognito]

i mean, it's only reasonable to assume that if you extrapolate romney's gains from his first debate until election day he will not only win the election, but in an electoral landslide to boot.

 

[RustyNails]

I don't think that is correct. If Romney wins those 3 states, I have him at 266 (I'm assuming a NC win).

Ah, didn't factor that consideration.