The Chosen One
Member
Biden needs to "slip-up" and refer to Ryan as "Congressman Ryan" at various points throughout the debate.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Souldriver
Member
Im on my phone with a slow connection so i cant check it out. All i know is that the last debate was at around 3 am where i live, so if the vp one is at the same time i know ive stil got some time to find a decent internet connection.
( im in belgium btw).FleckSplat
Member
Im on my phone with a slow connection so i cant check it out. All i know is that the last debate was at around 3 am where i live, so if the vp one is at the same time i know ive stil got some time to find a decent internet connection.
Yep, same time.
Probably, but that's pretty shady and I"m not sure what happens if you get caught doing something like that.
Black Mamba
Member
It's not dems switching, it's independents. And it seems it's a lot of Hispanic independents doing the switching.
I dunno, that doesn't seem to make sense to me. Minorities switching to Romney doesn't seem like something that would happen.
Though, didn't help that immigration wasn't even a topic at the debate.
The other Florida polls basically have it tied, so this one is very different than everyone else.
Dominican Power
Member
It's going to be a dog fight. I have to switch between the Yankee/Knicks game and the debate.
Souldriver
Member
Kay thanks!
yankees are playing the knicks? well it's about time
Just got polled in nc. Biased as hell. "What type of Christian are you" "do these negative statements about Obama make you very doubtful or not doubtful" "do these positive endorsements of Romney make you supportive or not supportive" loaded language. Never identified themselves. Felt like a sales pitch not a survey.
not, not, not. Next survey.
It's called a push poll
Black Mamba
Member
Ouch!
Still think the poll is an outlier, though.
Agent Unknown
Member
Yes
Haha Yikes.
Hmm. Never heard of them before but I googled it and you're right. Pissed me off by the end.
Black Mamba
Member
Now 65-35 on Silver's forecast.
Also of note, the Now-cast and forecast are basically identical. Don't think this had ever been the case nor was it supposed to get this close for 2 more weeks.
Come on Biden, give the dems some life back. Obama needs to bring it round 2. The debates don't generally matter but I think the media's reaction affected things. Not as much as it looks right now, but enough to rile up Repubs siting on the sidelines.
Worst part is these crappy polls are also giving them life. Florida up 7 gonna be big on the conservative circuit even if it's very inaccurate. Like I said, Obama had a chance to nail the election and fucked up.
Also of note, the Now-cast and forecast are basically identical. Don't think this had ever been the case nor was it supposed to get this close for 2 more weeks.
Come on Biden, give the dems some life back. Obama needs to bring it round 2. The debates don't generally matter but I think the media's reaction affected things. Not as much as it looks right now, but enough to rile up Repubs siting on the sidelines.
Worst part is these crappy polls are also giving them life. Florida up 7 gonna be big on the conservative circuit even if it's very inaccurate. Like I said, Obama had a chance to nail the election and fucked up.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I said until the VP debate day so here we are. Also, I haven't really commented much on polls. Not much to say really
Officerrob
Banned
I'm sorry, but any poll that has Romney leading among Hispanics is bullshit. That's like trying to say Obama was going to win white males in a swing state which was never going to happen even at the height of his post-convention bump.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Even if Biden does extremely well tonight, I don't expect the media to make a big deal out of it at all.
They only really care about Obama/Romney II, imo.
Ryan and Biden aren't running for President.
They only really care about Obama/Romney II, imo.
Ryan and Biden aren't running for President.
Fenderputty
Banned
Doesn't the hispanic (Cuban) poulation in Florida lean pretty heavily to the right?
Aaron Strife
Banned
Does MD have Romney winning Hispanics? lol
No more than the rest of the state leans republican.Fenderputty said:
Thing we have to understand about all the networks (Fox excluded for obvious reasons) is there's massive money in advertising. The amount of money they're raked in the last couple cycles is truly appalling. And considering the state of non-political advertising, it's really not realistic to expect any middle ground. They're going to appease all sides and keep things as tight as they possibly can for maximum profits. Political ads have become the networks cash cow.
Wouldn't say that, Cheney made a pretty big bounce happen in the polls in his VP debate because of his aggression on foreign policy and his unyielding attitude. VP debates are usually less about the VP candidates themselves but how they advocate and sell the ticket including the people at the top of each ticket, the attack dogs of the ticket if you will where they attack their opponent and its master equally. You won't see the President candidate attack the VP candidate but you will see the VP candidate attack the top of the ticket.
Officerrob
Banned
Because of the Cuban population Republicans do better among Hispanics in Florida then other states, but a Pew poll from 10 days ago had Obama leading Hispanics in Florida by 30% (61/31) (http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/10/01/latinos-in-the-2012-election-florida-2/). Yes it was before the first debate, but there is nothing out there to suggest the type of movement that Mason Dixon poll suggests
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
There have been good and bad polls so far. Panic mode is when you see all red all the time.
Hey poligaf, I just have one request from you if Biden doesn't "win" the debate today. For fuck's sake, don't actually ACT like he lost the goddamned debate! Show some fricken discipline! Ryan could shit himself on stage and run out crying, and Rush and Hannity will still go on their programs and say he made Biden his bitch. For once, take some notes!
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'm thinking it doesn't look great for Obama right now, and this is totally something he could have avoided - but all the same, he'll probably win in the end and I feel good about 332-206. Maybe even 347, no one's polled NC lately except Rasmussen, maybe because it's in the bag for Romney :rolleyes
Also, sadly I won't be able to watch the debate tonight
I wasn't able to watch the first presidential debate either for the same reason (late-night play rehearsal), but that seems to have been more of a blessing.teruterubozu
Member
Panic is good right now. Chill the fuck out keeps people at home.
Black Mamba
Member
Cubans over 40, yes. Everyone else, not so much.
There is a lot of non-Cuban hispanics in Florida. Florida is the place with the least democrat hispanic support as a result, of course.
Obama won 57% of hispanics in 2008 in Florida. This latest poll puts waaaaay behind that. I just don't see it.
Hey poligaf, I just have one request from you if Biden doesn't "win" the debate today. For fuck's sake, don't actually ACT like he lost the goddamned debate! Show some fricken discipline! Ryan could shit himself on stage and run out crying, and Rush and Hannity will still go on their programs and say he made Biden his bitch. For once, take some notes!
I mentioned this earlier and it's why MSNBC sucks. They don't understand how to be shills.
That said, Poli-gaf is not a news network. No reason to push a narrative here.
NullPointer
Member
The more Romney and Ryan speak the better I like the odds.
ryutaro's mama
Member
But he only has a 65% chance of winning and the polls keep tightening...
And Biden is sure to flame out tonight.
And Obama will turn in 2 more lousy debates.
Big Baybee
Member
Michael Steele reeeeaaaaally annoys me. I don't hate him, but he annoys me so much.
RustyNails
Member
Derp.
RustyNails
Member
Mason Dixon is the first poll that shows Romney past 50%. I'm having a hard time buying it.
Edit: I mean 50% threshold
Edit: I mean 50% threshold
I'm thinking it doesn't look great for Obama right now, and this is totally something he could have avoided - but all the same, he'll probably win in the end and I feel good about 332-206. Maybe even 347, no one's polled NC lately except Rasmussen, maybe because it's in the bag for Romney :rolleyes
Also, sadly I won't be able to watch the debate tonight
Ohio.
I did go through a few panic cycles in the last election, as polls fluctuated. I decided at the outset not to put myself through that this time around, so I'm trying to keep a bit of distance from the daily carnage.
The polls have swung hard for Romney, there is no doubt. And if that continues through next week - if we see a fundamental realignment rather than a narrowing or bounce - then I will certainly reasses Obama's chances. But right now I've moderated from certainty in Obama's victory to near certainty.
If Ohio is put in play - and right now it's not - that would be my tipping point.
Fenderputty
Banned
I'm just saying. I'm pretty sure the Cuban portion of the Hispanic vote leans right because of their past dealings with communism. I sure know my father in law does. It doesn’t shock me that a poll showing positive R numbers amongst Hispanics would come from Florida. That has nothing to do with the general political climate in the state either. AZ, NM and NV are examples of just the opposite actually.
According to this:
http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/10/01/latinos-in-the-2012-election-florida-2/
Though the article does go on to say that, while it used to be true that more Hispanics were registered R in Florida, the trend has shifted and is now leaning more left.
I guess that makes sense. It would align with the pew article too regarding the democratic shift in recent times.
The numbers for that poll look messed up in general, I don't trust it. It seems like an obvious outlier to me.
speculawyer
Member
How is that a slip-up?
He wasn't that bad until that segment there just now on Hardball. Good god, he was afraid of calling out the jobbers. Pathetic.
ryutaro's mama
Member
So we are 1 hour and some change out.
Predictions?
I got Biden going Biden and possibly overcompensating to get the ticket back on track--THERE BE GAFFES.
I got Ryan pivoting all night long and not actually answering questions when asked, similar to Palin in 2008.
Networks will pick the winner based on their preference and it will hardly move the needle either way in the polls.
Predictions?
I got Biden going Biden and possibly overcompensating to get the ticket back on track--THERE BE GAFFES.
I got Ryan pivoting all night long and not actually answering questions when asked, similar to Palin in 2008.
Networks will pick the winner based on their preference and it will hardly move the needle either way in the polls.
Black Mamba
Member
If the polls are tighter than they are now come Monday, then it's time to be worried. I'm betting on the polls loosening a bit over the weekend as the polling from directly after the debate fades a bit (edit: but I expect it to get tighter tomorrow at least, maybe Saturday).
What is a bit strange is the polls have been all over the place. 2 or 3 florida polls say tied, then 1 says +7. Someone put Penn at like +1. yeah right. IBD tracker goes from +5 to +1 in 1 day for a 7 day tracker. That is crazy. Do you know how high Obama's numbers must be yesterday for that to happen?
There is some strange things going on. For instance:
Florida showing hispanics all of a sudden loving Romney more
IBD saying there are a LOT more conservatives than moderates and liberals combined
IBD saying Jews favor Romney.
Many senators not affected by Obama's numbers (someone people are not voting Obama but still vote for their Dem Senator!?)
etc.
I have no idea what's causing this noise but common sense says these things can't be true.
edit: as for predictions tonight, probably both suck. Who knows though. Biden can't be terrible, that's for sure. The media narrative is making a difference right now.
What is a bit strange is the polls have been all over the place. 2 or 3 florida polls say tied, then 1 says +7. Someone put Penn at like +1. yeah right. IBD tracker goes from +5 to +1 in 1 day for a 7 day tracker. That is crazy. Do you know how high Obama's numbers must be yesterday for that to happen?
There is some strange things going on. For instance:
Florida showing hispanics all of a sudden loving Romney more
IBD saying there are a LOT more conservatives than moderates and liberals combined
IBD saying Jews favor Romney.
Many senators not affected by Obama's numbers (someone people are not voting Obama but still vote for their Dem Senator!?)
etc.
I have no idea what's causing this noise but common sense says these things can't be true.
edit: as for predictions tonight, probably both suck. Who knows though. Biden can't be terrible, that's for sure. The media narrative is making a difference right now.
Team Romney demanded in the debate agreement that Ryan be called "Mr" rather than the traditional "Congressman".
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/ashamed.php?ref=fpblg
teruterubozu
Member
I predict the media reaction will be: Old Man versus Young Guy.
With only two possible narratives:
1.) Biden is wise vs. Ryan is arrogant
or
2.) Biden is senile vs. Ryan is "fresh"
Take your pick.
With only two possible narratives:
1.) Biden is wise vs. Ryan is arrogant
or
2.) Biden is senile vs. Ryan is "fresh"
Take your pick.
speculawyer
Member
Yeah, considering what happened in the Obama/Romney debate there is a lot of pressure on this one. No one wants to be the passive guy since Mitt got lauded for throwing wild misinformation haymakers and flip-flop upper-cuts.
So it is gonna be a dog fight is right.
The campaign is trying to distance Ryan from Congress so people don't realize he's one of the guys that have been fucking them over. Shit, congressional approval is what? Under 10%? Can't say I blame them for trying, but everyone should ignore their shit.
EDIT: Beaten.
They've already started setting that narrative up. Fucking joke man.
Black Mamba
Member
All Biden has to keep saying is
"Ryan tried to pass so and so IN CONGRESS"
And
"Now, he along with fellow republican congressmen"
Problem SOLVED.
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