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PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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Ember128

Member
Some states will have much more lax gun laws than others that they are adjacent to.

Guns then flow from one area with lax gun laws into states with more restrictive gun laws (which are used in an attempt to curb crime) and sold illegally from one state to another.

It's basically the same thing that happens with The Canadian Border, but it's way harder to sneak guns across the border than it is to do it across state lines.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I'm not into this debate and I did a search for a prior thread and found nothing, but because I'm not into it I don't know if it has been made into a thread.

I thought this was interesting:

States’ crime rates show scant linkage to gun laws

Someone more into it than me can make a thread if they want.

Mostly because the guns come into the states with strict gun laws from those with lax gun laws. NYC did a study on it showing that most of the guns used in crime in the city came from out of state.
 

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Since we know John Roberts is concerned first and foremost with his legacy, I don't see any way he upholds the Circuit Court's ruling, knowing that to do so is to strike down nearly 200 years of executive precedent. At least I hope that's the case.
We don't know that Roberts is primarily concerned with his legacy, as his court has had NO trouble overturning precedent at all other times. It's been suggested that the ACA ruling was just to provide cover for conservative rulings down the line, and to me that doesn't sound entirely crazy.
 

Chichikov

Member
I'm not into this debate and I did a search for a prior thread and found nothing, but because I'm not into it I don't know if it has been made into a thread.

I thought this was interesting:

States’ crime rates show scant linkage to gun laws

Someone more into it than me can make a thread if they want.
They don't link to any of the studies, so it's hard to evaluate them, but at least as they're presented in the article, their methodology seem suspect to me.
Studies like this one seem to suggest such correlation in fact exists, though I doubt you'll fine them published on in the Washington Times; it's not exactly famous for printing stories that contradict its editorial positions.
 
We don't know that Roberts is primarily concerned with his legacy, as his court has had NO trouble overturning precedent at all other times. It's been suggested that the ACA ruling was just to provide cover for conservative rulings down the line, and to me that doesn't sound entirely crazy.
I am of this opinion. That's why he's hearing the VRA.
 
But sales taxes change the prices of goods much more directly than other forms of taxes.

And income taxes change wages and benefits. And corporate taxes change compliance costs.

Also, if a good is very inelastic, then a sales tax on it doesn't affect quantity supplied much or at all even if it raises prices. This matters because GDP is output and it the quantity output is unchanged, then it's good, all else equal.

I said taxes affect prices and quantity supplied but that includes wages and labor supply.

First of all, investment is the opposite of saving, what encourage saving discourage investment and vice versa.

You've got this wrong, saving is the opposite of consumption.

Not sure why this has gotten mentioned here a few times the past month. Savings is not the opposite of investment; in fact you can see savings as equal to investment in the long run.

In fact, when investment increases, we see savings increase in the long run coming back into equilibrium. Simply put, what is saved gets invested.

The IS-LM model explains all this. In the long run, Savings = Investment (with savings defined as both private and public savings combined).


Also, income tax doesn't really penalize saving on the personal level, it's not like I can buy things with my pre-tax dollars, it does discourage corporations from saving, or more accurately, sitting on a mountain of cash, but that's not a bad thing, unless you're a supply side economist (are you? I tend to assume the worst about Lakers fans, but I'll give the benefit of the doubt).

Income taxes most certainly taxes savings on a personal level. Ever save money? What happens when you fill out your taxes? You're taxed on what your savings accrue (granted the interest rates are such shit right now it's nothing). If it's sales taxes only your money accrues tax free.

If you make $50k and pay 20% of it to taxes, you have $40k after tax dollars. With no income taxes it's just $50k (really, it's less because wages would drop but I don't want to get complicated so let's stay simple).

Even if you buy the same packet of goods and services under both scenarios and let's assume it leads to 20% of your income in the sales tax scenario going to taxes, you can still spend and save $40k. Let's assume you spend $30k in the former and $40k in the latter ($10k taxes). You save $10k in both scenarios. At a 3% annual interest rate, which one will be higher in 10 years? Well, the latter since in the former you pay tax on it every year.

Supply-sider? Hell no. You said that sales taxes had no benefits. I was simply correcting you. I am not arguing sales taxes are always better and I've been pretty adamant against the idea of sales taxes replacing our income taxes (in fact, the Fair Tax is the dumbest tax proposal we've ever seen).

I'm just correcting what you said. Taxes have pros and cons and we have to establish who we want to pay and once we do that figure out the most efficient way to do it by weighing pros and cons.

I don't think they're easier to enforce, they definitely create more avoidance, which is a bad thing.

Sales taxes are much easier to enforce than income taxes. You cut down on the paperwork immensely. All major corporations have little way around it. A few million people reporting taxes or 100 million?

There's avoidance for income taxes, too. Ever report that $50 you won from your fantasy football league? Or that $500 baseball card you sold on ebay? Or are you Mitt Romney with off-shore accounts?

A VAT also makes it very hard to avoid the tax at most levels.


As for the deadweight loss issue, I've never seen it address taxes in such gradual level, it was about the level of taxation and maybe some simple modeling about the
progressiveness of the tax code, never the details of collection mechanism.

DWL is dependent on the elasticities of the market being taxed. Different taxes are for different markets.

That doesn't mean it's wrong, that means that this theory claim that increased inequality yield better economic efficiency, and if that's the case you're making (please say if I'm barking at the wrong tree though) I think it can and should be attacked on more substantial ground that the efficiency of the markets.

I am not saying inequality yields better economic efficiency. I am saying sales taxes tend to be more efficient at the low levels.

You know, you can have a sales tax (which is regressive) and then rebate the people who need it to remove the regressivity at the bottom. For instance, instead of taxing people who make $10k at 5% total, you could have a 4% sales tax and rebate people who make $10k $400. Not only would the person have the same money to spend in the end, it would increase efficiency in the economy.

I believe some states do just that and they're better off for it. There are many things you can do to be more efficient while driving down inequality. Just because we have idiots like Jindal who want sales taxes because it taxes the rich less doesn't mean you can't use sales taxes and still shift burdens away from the poor.

Finally, you really need to show that "market distortion" is a bad thing.

All market distortions are bad. But, and this is important, in a real economy (opposed to the ones on paper), all markets are distorted without gov't intervention. My belief is it's mostly the gov't role to remove the "distortion," which is defined as away from the competitive price and quantity, while weighting against social welfare (if distortion brings a better social welfare outcome, then it's fine).

I mean, minimum wages distort the market in a more profound way than all our tax code put together, does that mean it's a bad thing?

Minimum wages only distort perfectly competitive markets. Ours aren't. Minimum wages in real life actually remove the distortion which is why Card and Kruger, as well as other economists, have found positive correlations with minimum wage hikes and employment.

Minimum Wage laws are good because the rectify the assymetric information gap between employers and employees.
 
We don't know that Roberts is primarily concerned with his legacy, as his court has had NO trouble overturning precedent at all other times. It's been suggested that the ACA ruling was just to provide cover for conservative rulings down the line, and to me that doesn't sound entirely crazy.

That's a good point, but upholding this ruling would be the single biggest change in the governmental balance of power in... at least a very long time. Is there anything about Roberts that indicates that he wants to fundamentally change the way the executive branch has operated for nearly 200 years?

To put it another way: if it weren't for the fact that this hurts Obama, is there any reason a conservative would agree with the District Court's ruling?

P.S. Black Mamba knows his micro-econ.
 

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
That's a good point, but upholding this ruling would be the single biggest change in the governmental balance of power in... at least a very long time. Is there anything about Roberts that indicates that he wants to fundamentally change the way the executive branch has operated for nearly 200 years?
Read the fine print. While concurring with the ACA Roberts also took a huge swipe at the Commerce Clause.
 
In the Republicans Are Wearing Clown Shoes Edition Of The News:

Some Republicans in Arizona are trying to make all public school students take this oath in order to graduate:

15-701.03. Graduation requirement; constitutional oath
BEGINNING IN THE 2013‑2014 SCHOOL YEAR, IN ADDITION TO FULFILLING THE COURSE OF STUDY AND ASSESSMENT REQUIREMENTS PRESCRIBED IN THIS CHAPTER, BEFORE A PUPIL IS ALLOWED TO GRADUATE FROM A PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOL IN THIS STATE, THE PRINCIPAL OR HEAD TEACHER OF THE SCHOOL SHALL VERIFY IN WRITING THAT THE PUPIL HAS RECITED THE FOLLOWING OATH:

I, _________, DO SOLEMNLY SWEAR THAT I WILL SUPPORT AND DEFEND THE CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED STATES AGAINST ALL ENEMIES, FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC, THAT I WILL BEAR TRUE FAITH AND ALLEGIANCE TO THE SAME; THAT I TAKE THIS OBLIGATION FREELY, WITHOUT ANY MENTAL RESERVATION OR PURPOSE OF EVASION; AND THAT I WILL WELL AND FAITHFULLY DISCHARGE THESE DUTIES; SO HELP ME GOD.
http://legiscan.com/AZ/text/HB2467

Pesky 1st Amendment!


In other news, a Tennessee legislator wants to tie welfare to student grades.

Tennessee state Rep. Stacey Campfield (R) introduced a bill this week seeking to make welfare benefits contingent upon the grades of a would-be recipient's children.

Campfield's legislation, filed Thursday, would "require the reduction of Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) payments for parents or caretakers of TANF recipients whose children fail to maintain satisfactory progress in school." TANF is more commonly referred to as welfare.

Under Campfield's bill, welfare recipients would face a loss of benefits if their children showed poor academic performance. It's unclear how these factors would be tied to one another, or how the children's performance would be assessed.

In a blog addressing his proposal, Campfield calls his bill a measure to "break the cycle of poverty." According to Campfield, education is a "three legged stool" comprised of schools, teachers and parents. He claims the state has adequately held the first two legs of the school accountable, but argues that it should apply more pressure on the third.

"The third leg of the stool (probably the most important leg) is the parents," Campfield writes. "We have done little to hold them accountable for their child's performance. What my bill would do is put some responsibility on parents for their child's performance."

Campfield has been a pioneer of creative ways to target beneficiaries of entitlement programs in the past. He was a driving force behind failed efforts to require Tennesseeans seeking government benefits to first pass drug tests.

He was also the legislator behind Tennessee's controversial and ill-fated "don't say gay bill" in early 2012.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/...p00000009&utm_hp_ref=fb&src=sp&comm_ref=false

Clown shoes, all of them.
 

Piecake

Member
We don't know that Roberts is primarily concerned with his legacy, as his court has had NO trouble overturning precedent at all other times. It's been suggested that the ACA ruling was just to provide cover for conservative rulings down the line, and to me that doesn't sound entirely crazy.

Anthony Kennedy

In fact, Kennedy has a passion for foreign cultures and ideas, and, as a Justice, he has turned it into a principle of jurisprudence. Over the past two years, he has become a leading proponent of one of the most cosmopolitan, and controversial, trends in constitutional law: using foreign and international law as an aid to interpreting the United States Constitution. Kennedy’s embrace of foreign law may be among the most significant developments on the Court in recent years—the single biggest factor behind his evolution from a reliable conservative into the likely successor to Sandra Day O’Connor as the Court’s swing vote. Kennedy continues to oppose racial preferences and to argue for expansive Presidential powers. He was a principal author of the unsigned majority opinion in Bush v. Gore. But he also wrote the two most important pro-gay-rights decisions in the Court’s history and has at least tentatively affirmed his support for Roe v. Wade. Conservatives regard these decisions as a betrayal. In 2003, James Dobson, the founder and director of the influential evangelical group Focus on the Family, called Kennedy “the most dangerous man in America.”

http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/09/12/050912fa_fact

Well, if Kennedy is in favor of expansive presidential powers, it seems likely that he will overturn the lower court's decision
 

Piecake

Member
You know, you can have a sales tax (which is regressive) and then rebate the people who need it to remove the regressivity at the bottom. For instance, instead of taxing people who make $10k at 5% total, you could have a 4% sales tax and rebate people who make $10k $400. Not only would the person have the same money to spend in the end, it would increase efficiency in the economy.

I believe some states do just that and they're better off for it. There are many things you can do to be more efficient while driving down inequality. Just because we have idiots like Jindal who want sales taxes because it taxes the rich less doesn't mean you can't use sales taxes and still shift burdens away from the poor.

Isnt that basically what Europe does? Have an extremely regressive taxation system, but spend it in a very progressive manner?

Ooo, found a link

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/09/19/other-countries-dont-have-a-47/

What’s going on here? Basically, all of the progressivity of our fellow developed nations’ welfare states comes on the spending side. They spend a whole lot more on transfer programs, education and health services, and other initiatives that are redistributive in impact. We, by contrast, tax progressively, and then spread the money around in a less progressive fashion.
This isn’t an accident. UC Davis’s Peter Lindert has argued in his book “Growing Public” that European social democracies were only able to develop the programs they did because they used efficient consumption taxes that didn’t lower growth as much as progressive income taxes, particularly those on capital income. European countries needed tax systems that could raise a lot of money without hurting growth, and only regressive consumption taxes fit the bill.
But in addition to troublesome growth effects, taxes on capital income and savings tend to produce taxpayer backlashes. Monica Prasad, who co-produced the above charts, has argued that countries like the United States with progressive tax codes saw a strong conservative reaction against high taxes and welfare policies, with the net effect being that the redistributive agenda lost ground. In any case, Prasad and Deng found that when the progressivity of countries’ tax codes is negatively correlated with the amount of redistribution they do. In English: The less progressive the code, the more progressive the system.

The X tax is starting to become more intriguing to me. Still not really sure how this taxes capital gains though. If it doesnt, we at least need some serious tax on short term trades (because thats not investment) and an estate tax

Found this interesting

The Graetz plan is revenue neutral but it could be tweaked to raise more revenue overall or to be more progressive. Any plan that attempts to compensate for the regressive nature of a VAT by means of credits or rebates for working Americans that would be administered through the payroll tax would necessarily reduce payroll tax revenues for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. But that is a point in its favor. In a society in which more and more of the gains from economic growth are going to capital, rather than labor, it makes sense to shift from a system in which social insurance relies solely on payroll taxes to a new system in which it relies on a mix of payroll taxes and higher taxes on the consumption or non-wage income of the rich. Medicare has always been funded in part by payroll taxes and general revenues. Funding Social Security by general revenues or other dedicated taxes, in addition to payroll taxes, might permit not only income taxes but also payroll taxes to be permanently reduced for the majority of working Americans.

This approach to tax reform should appeal to progressives and genuine centrists for another reason. It would almost certainly doom the conservative project of replacing public social insurance programs with tax credits or private accounts subsidized through personal income tax expenditures, because only affluent Americans would pay income taxes and middle-class voters would no longer enjoy the benefits of those programs. Tax reform that limited income taxation to the affluent few could thus build support for the replacement of the unfair and inefficient private welfare state run through the IRS — a system that includes 401Ks, IRAs and tax credits for employer and individual health insurance — with a simpler, cheaper, more efficient system of public provision or public utility regulation in the fields of retirement security and healthcare.

http://www.salon.com/2012/04/24/a_radical_tax_solution/singleton/
 
Isnt that basically what Europe does? Have an extremely regressive taxation system, but spend it in a very progressive manner?

Ooo, found a link

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/09/19/other-countries-dont-have-a-47/



The X tax is starting to become more intriguing to me. Still not really sure how this taxes capital gains though. If it doesnt, we at least need some serious tax on short term trades (because thats not investment) and an estate tax

Yes. Funny how universal healthcare tends to shift the welfare in a nation, eh?

Again though, not a fan of not taxing investment income and fear high levels of VAT (VAT in Europe isn't that high).
 

Dice

Pokémon Parentage Conspiracy Theorist
In the Republicans Are Wearing Clown Shoes Edition Of The News:

Some Republicans in Arizona are trying to make all public school students take this oath in order to graduate:

http://legiscan.com/AZ/text/HB2467

Pesky 1st Amendment!
Not only that, but how can you put this in a mandatory oath?

I TAKE THIS OBLIGATION FREELY, WITHOUT ANY MENTAL RESERVATION OR PURPOSE OF EVASION
lol

In other news, a Tennessee legislator wants to tie welfare to student grades.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...comm_ref=false
This one just makes me angry.
 

HylianTom

Banned
A bit late to the Hillary discussion, but I want her to win primarily for one reason: the Supreme Court. She's as close as we get to a guaranteed win in 2016, and I'll be blunt:
she'd force Scalia, Thomas, and the others on the right-wing side of the court to hang-on that much longer. And I don't see them all staying alive through 8 more years of a Democrat in the White House. She wins, we own the Supreme Court for the rest of my lifetime, and the "culture wars" are pretty much over.

Scalia.jpg

Unfortunately for Scalia, this isn't an option yet.
 

Clevinger

Member
Another McConnell email

"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is taking credit for defeating filibuster reform and preserving the GOP’s ability to block legislation.

The email, subject line 'We Beat the Liberals,' bragged that President Obama was 'furious' after liberal senators and left-wing groups failed to pass their 'dangerous scheme' to break down the checks and balances in the Senate.

'Bottom line,' Benton declared, 'Mitch McConnell saved the ability of Republicans to filibuster any bill at 60 votes. Period. … We all owe Leader McConnell a debt of gratitude today. We won the first battle. But there will be many more to come.'"
 
Another McConnell email

"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is taking credit for defeating filibuster reform and preserving the GOP’s ability to block legislation.

The email, subject line 'We Beat the Liberals,' bragged that President Obama was 'furious' after liberal senators and left-wing groups failed to pass their 'dangerous scheme' to break down the checks and balances in the Senate.

'Bottom line,' Benton declared, 'Mitch McConnell saved the ability of Republicans to filibuster any bill at 60 votes. Period. … We all owe Leader McConnell a debt of gratitude today. We won the first battle. But there will be many more to come.'"
Isn't there new rules mandating that they actually have to come forth and do the filibuster instead of just threatening to do so?
 
Another McConnell email

"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is taking credit for defeating filibuster reform and preserving the GOP’s ability to block legislation.

The email, subject line 'We Beat the Liberals,' bragged that President Obama was 'furious' after liberal senators and left-wing groups failed to pass their 'dangerous scheme' to break down the checks and balances in the Senate.

'Bottom line,' Benton declared, 'Mitch McConnell saved the ability of Republicans to filibuster any bill at 60 votes. Period. … We all owe Leader McConnell a debt of gratitude today. We won the first battle. But there will be many more to come.'"
I will totally contribute to Ashley Judd's campaign, even though she likely has no chance in hell.

Kentucky already has one crazy senator... Certainly it's not too much to ask for.
 

Jimothy

Member
Another McConnell email

"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is taking credit for defeating filibuster reform and preserving the GOP’s ability to block legislation.

The email, subject line 'We Beat the Liberals,' bragged that President Obama was 'furious' after liberal senators and left-wing groups failed to pass their 'dangerous scheme' to break down the checks and balances in the Senate.

'Bottom line,' Benton declared, 'Mitch McConnell saved the ability of Republicans to filibuster any bill at 60 votes. Period. … We all owe Leader McConnell a debt of gratitude today. We won the first battle. But there will be many more to come.'"

FOR THE GREAT LEADER
 

Jooney

Member
A question about the filibuster:

I agree that the current filibuster rules are absurd and have led to unprecedented obstruction in the senate.

From a political perspective, I am thinking that perhaps Reid didn't want to lift the rules given that the House is under Republican control, and may remain so for at least a couple of cycles. If the rules were changed for this session, it would be considered largely symbolic seeing that the democrat's agenda will be stonewalled in the House. If significant new rules came into effect, the democrats would wear the negative consequences (uninformed media coverage, the appearance of changing the rules to benefit their agenda, etc.) for the largely hollow benefit of being able to pass more easily bills in the senate (although I will admit not being able to confirm appointees is a negative)

I have no doubt that once Republicans would change the rules once they return to power in the senate. However, that may the point: the democrats don't be the ones responsible for changing the rules in the first place.
 

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Can we please stop pretending that having an unstaffed executive and judicial branch are minor issues? Appointments are a big deal.
 

Jooney

Member
Can we please stop pretending that having an unstaffed executive and judicial branch are minor issues? Appointments are a big deal.

If that is directed at me, I clearly stated that not being able to appoint nominees is a negative.

I'm just trying to flesh out the political maneouvring that was made. I know that the "Reid has no balls" explanation sounds satisfying but I am skeptical that its the right one.
 

Gotchaye

Member
If that is directed at me, I clearly stated that not being able to appoint nominees is a negative.

I'm just trying to flesh out the political maneouvring that was made. I know that the "Reid has no balls" explanation sounds satisfying but I am skeptical that its the right one.

I would imagine that a big part of it is that there actually weren't 50 Democrats willing to vote for significant reform. Several of them have a lot of reason to publicly express a willingness to go along with it while privately urging reformers to back off. The filibuster is a phenomenal excuse for a Senator who wants to appear liberal to constituents without having to do things that major donors might not like.

Now, I think the right response from reformers here is to point fingers, so Reid's not off the hook. Ultimately, if he's allowing other Democrats to hide behind his name on this deal, then he's as responsible as they are.
 
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