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[B-Dubs]

Right, when you insure someone, the expected payout is just the average for that person's demographic with the same risk factors. But because of individual randomness, the standard deviation is much higher. So the expected payout for an individual could be $2000, but with a standard deviation of $0 to $20,000. With groups, the larger sample size creates a much smaller standard deviation, and you don't see nearly as much variance in costs. If the group is large enough, you should be able to model the costs on a Normal distribution. This allows you to even out the premiums across members.

Also, I believe the ACA is mandating community rating, which means a standard price for everyone regardless of risk factors.

Yup. Right on all counts.

I wouldn't mind if the ACA was set up not to create plans for states that didn't comply with the law - it should be all or nothing. It's hard to see the government creating more than a dozen effective exchanges for states that refuse to even work with them.

You get what you vote for.

Except I don't really think that people should be denied health insurance at an affordable price because 51% of the populace (or just the politicians) are goddamn morons. I guarantee that if you put the exchange up for a vote in Jersey they would want to do it, it's just Christie being a dummy and positioning himself for 2016.

 

[thezerofire]

They are a way of grouping large numbers of people together so as to get them a better price on health insurance. It's basically how businesses get a good price on health insurance for their employees. You join the exchange and pick from a number of providers and plans, all cheaper than trying to get that same coverage alone.

Right, when you insure someone, the expected payout is just the average for that person's demographic with the same risk factors. But because of individual randomness, the standard deviation is much higher. So the expected payout for an individual could be $2000, but with a standard deviation of $0 to $20,000. With groups, the larger sample size creates a much smaller standard deviation, and you don't see nearly as much variance in costs. If the group is large enough, you should be able to model the costs on a Normal distribution. This allows you to even out the premiums across members.

Also, I believe the ACA is mandating community rating, which means a standard price for everyone regardless of risk factors.

Thanks. The article mentions that state-led exchanges might be more progressive than federal ones, what does that mean? How is an exchange more or less progressive?

 

[FyreWulff]

That should be an indicator more than ever that the GOP isn't actually about state's rights. So freaking hilarious that the state's rights party cedes control to the feds, while the liberal party states come up with their own plan..

 

[kehs]

Obama's hand written notes on Inaugural address

"We project the peaceful power of our democracy"

I'd totally fire that guy for trying to get me to say those words.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Georgia Senate - PPP

If Cleland could be coaxed into the race he would start out with a lead over every Republican we tested him against. He's up 1 against Price, 3 against Kingston, 5 against Gingrey, and 7 against Broun and Handel.

Democratic prospects for winning the seat might not hinge on what could be an unlikely Cleland candidacy though. John Barrow trails by an average of only 4/10ths of a point against the Republicans we tested- leading Gingrey and Handel by 1, tying Broun, trailing Price by 1, and trailing Kingston by 3. Carter trails the quintet of Republicans we tested by an average of 3.8 points- he's down 2 to Broun and Gingrey, 4 to Handel, 5 to Price, and 6 to Kingston.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

"We project the peaceful power of our democracy"

I'd totally fire that guy for trying to get me to say those words.

That correction is pretty genius, but maybe I'm just easily impressed. The original is cringe worthy though.

Reading Boehner's/speakerboehner's tweets is hurting my head.

 

[B-Dubs]

Thanks. The article mentions that state-led exchanges might be more progressive than federal ones, what does that mean? How is an exchange more or less progressive?

Basically the state led exchanges may go farther in controlling costs or mandating coverage than the federally led exchanges. For example for a number of years now NY has mandated that insurance companies cover reconstructive surgery following a mastectomy. Not every state does.

 

[RustyNails]

Teaparty Patriots sending out shopped image of Karl Rove as a nazi

 

[Diablos]

So TPM has a map showing which states are opting into the federal exchange, and which are doing it themselves.

Yup.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...ilding-obamacare-exchanges.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

Thanks, Corbett.
>:|

Don't they end up getting forced to conform anyway?

 

[B-Dubs]

Teaparty Patriots sending out shopped image of Karl Rove as a nazi

This isn't a cold war anymore!

 

[Forever]

Teaparty Patriots sending out shopped image of Karl Rove as a nazi

This is just so delicious.

 

[thezerofire]

Basically the state led exchanges may go farther in controlling costs or mandating coverage than the federally led exchanges. For example for a number of years now NY has mandated that insurance companies cover reconstructive surgery following a mastectomy. Not every state does.

Thanks a lot, I'm beginning to understand it.

I really wish that news establishments would call the GOP out on stuff like this. I'm not really surprised that they don't though

 

[B-Dubs]

Thanks a lot, I'm beginning to understand it.

I really wish that news establishments would call the GOP out on stuff like this. I'm not really surprised that they don't though

I'm sure that there are a few editorials out there about it, but since the Feds come in and set one up anyway its probably not seen as a big deal.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

A whole lot of irony.

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/obamacare-is-still-vulnerable

Stumbled upon this article. The Cato institute lol

 

[GhaleonEB]

Thanks, Corbett.
>:|

Don't they end up getting forced to conform anyway?

The states have a pretty large degree of flexibility in how they set up and run their exchange, IIRC. So it would make sense for a pro states rights, small c conservative to want to own the process at the state level, rather than have the federal government do it. I remember reading that was the reasoning of the Idaho governor, and it's one that fits the governing ideology. Something about a state knowing their citizens best and being able to set up an exchange to best suit their needs, unlike the "one size fits all" approach of the federal government. (Personally I think that's doublespeak for GOP governors wanting to set up the most industry-friendly exchange regulations possible, but that's me.)

But it’s also bad optics to the GOP base to do it, as that base can’t distinguish endorsing Obamacare vs. complying with it. Letting the feds do it makes it look like they are fighting it, rather than just letting the feds do it. It strikes me as the cowardly option, but hey. It will probably ensure greater consistency between exchanges.

 

[Opiate]

I don't think McCain has approached McCarthy levels of recognition, so he won't be remembered too well, if at all.

I agree. Being remembered for being wrong takes monumental levels of wrongness, as such people are remembered as cautionary tales. Otherwise, you're largely forgotten, and I think McCain fits the latter description better than the former.

 

[Link]

Teaparty Patriots sending out shopped image of Karl Rove as a nazi

 

[Averon]

Why is the Tea Party turning on Rove?

 

[Fenderputty]

Why is the Tea Party turning on Rove?

Rove started it.

Rove has backed other right-wing groups, such as the Conservative Victory Project, which Tea Party members have seen as a way to detract support and funds from their movement and block them from office.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/07/karl-rove-tea-party_n_2638176.html

On a sidenote, you know you're fringe when Rove is the voice of reason.

 

[LosDaddie]

Then the WSJ ran that story about all powerful junior Senator Obama shitcanning Bush's immigration plan.

Anyone remember the thread in OT started by the bronie based on that very WSJ article? Good times.

 

[Oblivion]

Obama's hand written notes on Inaugural address

pathetic, but i guess it's kinda hard to write notes on a telemprompter

 

[Jack Remington]

It's more like Jordan vs a 3rd grader...

On the subject of feuds, is the Ronito vs. Jackson50 thing still going on, or did that die down?

 

[CHEEZMO™]

Teaparty Patriots sending out shopped image of Karl Rove as a nazi

Kinda funny considering most in the Teabacco Party could very well be called Fascists.

 

[Ecotic]

The Georgia Senate race is fascinating, the first event in Georgia politics in years to make me excited about my home State politics. My Congressman (Jack Kingston) is running, that idiot Paul Broun ("evolution and embryology are lies straight from the pit of hell") is running. I've pretty much been to a speaking event of every candidate who might be running, and we actually have a couple of Democrats who could be competitive. It really is a free-for-all. If John Barrow decides to run, I would seriously consider joining his campaign.

 

[Oblivion]

Oh btw, why did Black Mamba get banned?

 

[TheLaughingStock]

Here's a link just to give some background to what I was talking about regarding the rise of health care costs.

http://www.healthcarepayernews.com/content/cbos-latest-budget-forecast-finds-growth-healthcare-spending-still-rising-slowly

What does inflation have to do with it? Projections are typically in % GDP.

If health care costs rise to 25% of GDP, then their weight on the rate of inflation needs to be correspondingly 25%. The CBO's nominal GDP and inflation projections simply don't match up with the story they're trying to tell.

https://skydrive.live.com/redir?resid=8639C9274E06C173!368&authkey=!AA_4R5wb4l4WsLU

https://skydrive.live.com/redir?resid=8639C9274E06C173!369&authkey=!AFT-Tn9lOZ6aOaQ

 

[Oblivion]

Well this is an interesting twist on the abortion argument. Apparently babies are organs now:

“When a physician removes a child from a woman, that is the largest organ in a body,” McClurkin said in an interview Thursday. “That’s a big thing. That’s a big surgery. You don’t have any other organs in your body that are bigger than that.”

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/...largest-organ-in-a-body-because-she-s-a-moron

 

[Shadow Hog]

Organs aren't people, though, so surely this wasn't meant as a pro-life argument.

 

[kehs]

Well this is an interesting twist on the abortion argument. Apparently babies are organs now:



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/...largest-organ-in-a-body-because-she-s-a-moron

Figures she'd say, it's no skin off her back.

---

Obama called Rubio over the immigration thing.

RIP Rubio 2016 and Immigration Reform.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/02/obama-calls-rubio-immigration-reform.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

 

[Snake]

Oh btw, why did Black Mamba get banned?

Recommended Tool as the best alternative music in the '90s.

Personally I think he got off easy.

 

[Link]

Figures she'd say, it's no skin off her back.

---

Obama called Rubio over the immigration thing.

RIP Rubio 2016 and Immigration Reform.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/02/obama-calls-rubio-immigration-reform.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

Damn, I read that as "called out" and I got excited.

 

[ronito]

On the subject of feuds, is the Ronito vs. Jackson50 thing still going on, or did that die down?

Who did the what now?

 

[Jooney]

Recommended Tool as the best alternative music in the '90s.

Personally I think he got off easy.

This makes sense because Lateralus is the best album.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Recommended Tool as the best alternative music in the '90s.

Personally I think he got off easy.

Classic album, and their best

I assumed he was banned for lying about Kobe Bryant being better than LeBron James.

 

[Oblivion]

Recommended Tool as the best alternative music in the '90s.

Personally I think he got off easy.

As long as it was for a good reason I guess.



You know, it's a shame we don't have many right leaning folks in poligaf, but I'm just gonna throw this out there. Now, libertarians and conservatives support the idea of cutting things like medicare, and SS and like. Now I get that those people are generally ideologically opposed to those progams on accounta the gubment and all. But from a practical standpoint, wouldn't supporting the idea of cutting these programs be self destructive? I mean, you already paid into these programs with your taxes, and by supporting cuts, you are in effect allowing the government to pay out less in benefits. Why would anyone support something like this?

 

[Piecake]

Supreme Court backs Monsanto in GMO seed case (likely)

 

[kehs]

As long as it was for a good reason I guess.



You know, it's a shame we don't have many right leaning folks in poligaf, but I'm just gonna throw this out there. Now, libertarians and conservatives support the idea of cutting things like medicare, and SS and like. Now I get that those people are generally ideologically opposed to those progams on accounta the gubment and all. But from a practical standpoint, wouldn't supporting the idea of cutting these programs be self destructive? I mean, you already paid into these programs with your taxes, and by supporting cuts, you are in effect allowing the government to pay out less in benefits. Why would anyone support something like this?

I think the general logic as far as wasted money is that you don't look backward, and deal with what you can do at the moment. Oddly similar to the Forward campaign.

There might also be a false idea that if these programs get cut, their taxes will get cut as well, even though most everybody knows that's pretty laugh inducing. (pay it towards the debt instead!)

Thirdly, most of the people supporting cuts on these problems consider themselves self reliant and can't or don't want to see a situation where they might need those services in the first place. In the case of SS, I've seen it mentioned that since it's "going bankrupt in 25 years" there won't be anything for them anyways.

 

[Owzers]

Herman Cain on O'Reilly saying 51% of people in the U.S.(those who voted for Obama) are dumb and were mislead into voting for Obama


Thanks Fox News, quote me some Pokemon please.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Supreme Court backs Monsanto in GMO seed case (likely)

I can't tell from the specifics of the case, going by the article. But it sounds similar to issues I heard about involving genetically engineered crops. When I was living in Iowa (nine years ago) it was causing problems because large farms would plant their proprietary engineered plants (corn, in Iowa's case) in fields upwind from other corn fields (one case I read about, it was a small organic farm). That would cause cross pollination, and the large company would then turn around and sue the smaller farm when they replanted the cross-pollinated field. So the smaller farm had the option of going out of business or paying out the ears for the unintentionally cross pollinated crops.

Again I can’t tell from a reading of the linked article if it was intentional or not. And I’m not sure where or if case law or Congress bottomed out on that kind of thing. Do you know which situation this is?

 

[Piecake]

I can't tell from the specifics of the case, going by the article. But it sounds similar to issues I heard about involving genetically engineered crops. When I was living in Iowa (nine years ago) it was causing problems because large farms would plant their proprietary engineered plants (corn, in Iowa's case) in fields upwind from other corn fields (one case I read about, it was a small organic farm). That would cause cross pollination, and the large company would then turn around and sue the smaller farm when they replanted the cross-pollinated field. So the smaller farm had the option of going out of business or paying out the ears for the unintentionally cross pollinated crops.

Again I can’t tell from a reading of the linked article if it was intentional or not. And I’m not sure where or if case law or Congress bottomed out on that kind of thing. Do you know which situation this is?

Well, in this case, It seems very intentional. The old dude just wanted to save some money and planted third generation seeds instead of buying new monsanto seeds every year

That story is pretty fucked up though

 

[Al-ibn Kermit]

That should be an indicator more than ever that the GOP isn't actually about state's rights. So freaking hilarious that the state's rights party cedes control to the feds, while the liberal party states come up with their own plan..

"You'll push healthcare into our cold, dead hands."

 

[jdouglas]

As long as it was for a good reason I guess.



You know, it's a shame we don't have many right leaning folks in poligaf, but I'm just gonna throw this out there. Now, libertarians and conservatives support the idea of cutting things like medicare, and SS and like. Now I get that those people are generally ideologically opposed to those progams on accounta the gubment and all. But from a practical standpoint, wouldn't supporting the idea of cutting these programs be self destructive? I mean, you already paid into these programs with your taxes, and by supporting cuts, you are in effect allowing the government to pay out less in benefits. Why would anyone support something like this?

Uhh...I guess I'm right leaning. Though I am a liberal. A liberal Republican/Libertarian. So...as an 18 year old just getting into politics (not really though) I guess I'll try my best to answer this question though it may have a doppelganger-esqe feel to it (as it may or may not be someone else's opinion (and I guess that's the only way for something/opinion to be legitimate here eh?(unless it's from FOX ...of course))

Here is my bias: I have only had 2 semesters of macro and micro economics with a few competitions sprinkled in (by no means supposed to be impressive; just to show I'm not talking out of my ass (well...most of the time)). I also live in one of the richest cities in the country with a median income of...a lot. I'm definitely out of touch. I may seem callous.

This is (probably) what it boils down to: we(they(someone)) thinks that it is a crutch that people rely on too much. and that if they cut spending they in turn will have less taxes to pay.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Herman Cain on O'Reilly saying 51% of people in the U.S.(those who voted for Obama) are dumb and were mislead into voting for Obama


Thanks Fox News, quote me some Pokemon please.

He's just mad he couldn't catch 'em all.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Here's an interesting article - maybe Rand won't be able to carry on the Paul name as effectively as some thought?

http://dailycaller.com/2013/02/14/ron-paul-supporters-denounce-rand-paul-for-hagel-vote/

It's the Daily Caller, so not exactly an objective news source, but in this case it's probably best that it's from a libertarian/conservative viewpoint

 

[PhoenixDark]

Here's an interesting article - maybe Rand won't be able to carry on the Paul name as effectively as some thought?

http://dailycaller.com/2013/02/14/ron-paul-supporters-denounce-rand-paul-for-hagel-vote/

It's the Daily Caller, so not exactly an objective news source, but in this case it's probably best that it's from a libertarian/conservative viewpoint

He came out as pretty much a neoconservative a few weeks ago in his big fp speech; apparently foreign aid is only wasteful when not going to Israel, he supports various anti-terror programs, etc. I still think if anyone can put together a decent online presence, he can; he has had a first hand look at how impressive his dad's online base was/is, I'm sure he'll work to quickly create his own. That being said I'd imagine the Ron Paul folks will vote for Gary Johnson again in 2016.

 

[worldrunover]

Herman Cain on O'Reilly saying 51% of people in the U.S.(those who voted for Obama) are dumb and were mislead into voting for Obama


Thanks Fox News, quote me some Pokemon please.

From the limited conservative punditry I listen to, it seems the overarching theme is that people are low information voters and going against their own interests because the media and Hollywood tell them to.

Not that it's a new strategy, but they seem to be pushing it hard.

 

[Gotchaye]

From the limited conservative punditry I listen to, it seems the overarching theme is that people are low information voters and going against their own interests because the media and Hollywood tell them to.

Not that it's a new strategy, but they seem to be pushing it hard.

To be fair, this is a pretty common response among political losers of all ideologies. No one decides that the voters were right not to like their ideas. The more unusual and worrying thing is that lots of conservatives say that many voters - the takers - knew what they were doing when they voted for more gifts.

 

[Nert]

From the limited conservative punditry I listen to, it seems the overarching theme is that people are low information voters and going against their own interests because the media and Hollywood tell them to.

Not that it's a new strategy, but they seem to be pushing it hard.

Well, a lot of the people that prefer Democrats say the same thing about the people that vote for Republicans.

Spoiler

I know, I know, false equivalency and all, just pointing out that this is a common line of attack in politics. In an ideal world, people would just try to persuade others to their side through evidence and well developed arguments instead of attacks.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Class has its perks, I'm now at a little soirée at James Carville house. Man lives good...

 

[PhoenixDark]

To be fair, this is a pretty common response among political losers of all ideologies. No one decides that the voters were right not to like their ideas. The more unusual and worrying thing is that lots of conservatives say that many voters - the takers - knew what they were doing when they voted for more gifts.

Clinton did a good job of moving democrats away from some of its less popular ideas like Welfare; ultimately he governed like a center-right republican and revived the party enough for it to move back to the left (to a degree *winks at Empty Vessel*). Republicans need their own Clinton type to move them to the center-left but unfortunately their base is predominantly located in far right territory (the south and heartland).

Best guy to do it (IMO) would be Christie.