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PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1

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Diablos

Member
At first the message was clear and people were blaming the republicans but somehow over the last few days the message has changed and its starting to slip. The longer this goes on the worse it gets for Obama and the democrats. I have heard the tone change to the democrats need to start letting the parks open back up and world war II memorial the republicans want to get it done a little at a time lets do it.


what in the actual fuck..
Where did you hear this
 
Democrats haven't poll tested their strategy? wtf

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewi...ecorded-while-talking-shutdown-strategy-video

He's probably right. Refusing to negotiate doesn't seem like it's an effective, poll tested position. Neither is republicans shutting down the government, but I believe their messaging seems effective. Which is why I was shocked Boehner let them put contraceptive bullshit into their earlier CR; it fucks their entire message.

Latest CBS poll has GOP only being blamed more than Obama by 9 points. If this prolongs, that may decrease.

Personally I'm starting to believe we'll see some type of two sided cave. Republicans give up on Obamacare, democrats give up entitlement cuts. Which...is a ridiculous notion of compromise but ultimately I'm beginning to think republicans might "win" this. I think Boehner's last minute grand bargain idea was specifically meant to distract Obama, who also wants a grand bargain.
 
*checks profile*

you live in Utah? Well I wouldn't worry too much.

I suppose this is true, Like I said its personal experience and these are people that were blaming their own party to start but have slipped over the last 48 hours.. due to war vets.. how stupid can people be?
 

pigeon

Banned
Latest CBS poll has GOP only being blamed more than Obama by 9 points. If this prolongs, that may decrease.

Personally I'm starting to believe we'll see some type of two sided cave. Republicans give up on Obamacare, democrats give up entitlement cuts. Which...is a ridiculous notion of compromise but ultimately I'm beginning to think republicans might "win" this. I think Boehner's last minute grand bargain idea was specifically meant to distract Obama, who also wants a grand bargain.

Please stop encouraging Diablos.
 

Diablos

Member
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewi...ecorded-while-talking-shutdown-strategy-video

He's probably right. Refusing to negotiate doesn't seem like it's an effective, poll tested position. Neither is republicans shutting down the government, but I believe their messaging seems effective. Which is why I was shocked Boehner let them put contraceptive bullshit into their earlier CR; it fucks their entire message.

Latest CBS poll has GOP only being blamed more than Obama by 9 points. If this prolongs, that may decrease.

Personally I'm starting to believe we'll see some type of two sided cave. Republicans give up on Obamacare, democrats give up entitlement cuts. Which...is a ridiculous notion of compromise but ultimately I'm beginning to think republicans might "win" this. I think Boehner's last minute grand bargain idea was specifically meant to distract Obama, who also wants a grand bargain.
Looks like it hasn't changed.
 

pigeon

Banned
The much, much larger concern I'm having is that apparently the federal exchange is completely failing to enroll anybody. Thankfully, the shutdown bought some time, and people do give a certain amount of leeway to new web services. But if they can't get the exchange working in the next week, it's going to be pretty painful.

Note that the state-run exchanges have been successful -- it's specifically the fed exchange that has apparently had near-zero conversion rates.
 
The polling is whatever, the most depressing thing I've read is that the tea party faction causing all this doesn't care about money or Wall Street. The one thing I was hoping would reign these assholes in.
 

Cloudy

Banned
BVqgc29IEAA5Cge.jpg


LOL, Senate Dems brought a poster of Marlin Stutzman's "disrespected" quote to their presser

lolz
 

Diablos

Member
The much, much larger concern I'm having is that apparently the federal exchange is completely failing to enroll anybody. Thankfully, the shutdown bought some time, and people do give a certain amount of leeway to new web services. But if they can't get the exchange working in the next week, it's going to be pretty painful.

Note that the state-run exchanges have been successful -- it's specifically the fed exchange that has apparently had near-zero conversion rates.
It is pretty ironic that the site doesn't work right. Is there any way they can buy more servers/bandwidth despite the Government being shut down? They desperately need it.
 
Why? The GOP supports them during what, 11 of 12 months a year? Besides, Koch money props up the tea party more than Wall Street.
I guess it's more "moderate" (ha) republicans like Peter King whose voting records are the same as any teabagger.

Kind of like how Erik Paulsen and John Kline are seen as moderates here. They are just as bad as Bachmann. The only difference is they don't talk a lot.
 
It is pretty ironic that the site doesn't work right. Is there any way they can buy more servers/bandwidth despite the Government being shut down? They desperately need it.

It's not just the traffic/servers, the site is poorly designed. As I said in the ACA thread, the security question page doesn't even let you select a security question; you have to type in 3 answers to get it to work, but I'm noticing many people are just giving up instead of experimenting. That has nothing to do with traffic.

Setting up a decent website shouldn't be hard in 2013. This is like Nintendo levels of incompetence in relation to modern expectations/tech.
 

Diablos

Member
I suppose this is true, Like I said its personal experience and these are people that were blaming their own party to start but have slipped over the last 48 hours.. due to war vets.. how stupid can people be?
fwiw, yesterday in a restaurant I heard a bunch of seniors talking about how they don't like Obamacare but think the Republicans are crazy for stopping budgetary measures from coming to light every single time. They seemed pretty sharp for their age, stating we should see how the law works before proposing changes, etc., and the Republicans have no spine.

It's not just the traffic/servers, the site is poorly designed. As I said in the ACA thread, the security question page doesn't even let you select a security question; you have to type in 3 answers to get it to work, but I'm noticing many people are just giving up instead of experimenting. That has nothing to do with traffic.

Setting up a decent website shouldn't be hard in 2013. This is like Nintendo levels of incompetence in relation to modern expectations/tech.
I got to do the security questions yesterday. I think it has to do with traffic and where the page code is getting that dropdown list from (it must be generated by some process on another part of the server or something, I have no idea)

The problem is, when I enrolled, it had an error when taking the final step -- connecting to a server for my specific classification for health insurance options. The portal was borked.
 

Cloudy

Banned
It's not just the traffic/servers, the site is poorly designed. As I said in the ACA thread, the security question page doesn't even let you select a security question; you have to type in 3 answers to get it to work.

It works fine in iOS. It seems the site is designed by/for apple users (dumb)

There's obviously a traffic issue as well cos the page takes so long to load the next page. They really should have anticipated the media and GOP haters logging on in droves as well (looking for things to criticize)
 

pigeon

Banned
It's not just the traffic/servers, the site is poorly designed. As I said in the ACA thread, the security question page doesn't even let you select a security question; you have to type in 3 answers to get it to work, but I'm noticing many people are just giving up instead of experimenting. That has nothing to do with traffic.

The stuff I read said that the security questions weren't loading due to traffic. It's honestly not that straightforward to identify your stress points without extensive testing, so it's probably safe to assume nearly anything that looks unfinished is traffic-related.

But it would've been nice to have done extensive testing....

This is what happens when you let your web team go to work for Upworthy.
 
^ I'm sure that will go over well with people...

The stuff I read said that the security questions weren't loading due to traffic. It's honestly not that straightforward to identify your stress points without extensive testing, so it's probably safe to assume nearly anything that looks unfinished is traffic-related.

But it would've been nice to have done extensive testing....

This is what happens when you let your web team go to work for Upworthy.

I've seen discussion over it being a coding issue moreso than traffic.

Regardless it's an unforced error at the worst possible time. I've seen a couple stories about people finding good rates but overall the site's coverage has been rather negative. You can't fuck up the easy stuff.

And the rate/price/etc experiences of people in the ACA thread are far from reassuring.
 

Cloudy

Banned
Robert Costa ‏@robertcostaNRO 2m

Just got my hands on Cantor's Thurs memo to House Rs: "We are really in an unprecedented place," he writes. O "refusing to actively engage"

Like I said, this ends today...
 

Crisco

Banned
Jesus, it really seems like they believed in their heart of hearts that democrats would fold. Which, to be honest, is entirely reasonable given prior history. What we're seeing now is essentially a decades long rope a dope.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Jesus, it really seems like they believed in their heart of hearts that democrats would fold. Which, to be honest, is entirely reasonable given prior history. What we're seeing now is essentially a decades long rope a dope.

This is probably the best way to put it.

They just see this as a messaging victory. There's no way the shutdown ends before the debt ceiling.

The earliest it'll end is Monday I think, people will start to notice the pain more this weekend.
 
Honestly, he really shouldn't give two fucks. He's a second term president and he's dealing with a bunch of complete assholes. Fuck them.
Thats right. And libs/dems need fire under their asses and not lube themselves and bend over. Screw what others think. Good prepwork for 2014 elections too.
 
Republicans Say Boehner Has Offered Assurances on Default

With a budget deal still elusive and a deadline approaching on raising the debt ceiling, Speaker John A. Boehner has told colleagues that he is determined to prevent a federal default and is willing to pass a measure through a combination of Republican and Democratic votes, according one House Republican.

The lawmaker, who spoke on the condition of not being named, said Mr. Boehner indicated he would be willing to violate the so-called Hastert rule if necessary to pass a debt limit increase. The informal rule refers to a policy of not bringing to the floor any measure that does not have a majority of Republican votes.
http://www.nytimes.com/news/fiscal-...assurances-on-default/?smid=tw-thecaucus&_r=0

Called it. The shut down fight is mainly happening because he already knows he will have to cave on the debt ceiling. He wants that to be the first cave, not the second, to save his job.
 

Cloudy

Banned
WSJ reporting that some democrats are endorsing a repeal of the medical device tax in exchange for an end of the shutdown.

Yeah red-state dems and folks with device makers in their state. If it does happen, it won't be in the context of the CR or debt-ceiling
 

pigeon

Banned
If true that won't end well.

Honestly, if your prior is that the GOP has no conceivable long-term option except for passing a clean CR and a debt ceiling, and your goal is to win a political victory over them rather than to build a consensus for working together, then being aggressive is probably the right move. Sure, you might suffer a temporary loss from people thinking you won't compromise, but when they eventually cave and you win, you'll get a huge boost from people thinking you were STRONG, and the other side will have serious morale problems. It's a little more cynical than Obama usually is. It's about as cynical as Clinton was, though!
 

Renji_11

Member
The issues with the site to me seem like the database is being overloaded. Usually a site with have "glitches" when a node is reached capacity and the connection to the database drop.
 
Jesus, it really seems like they believed in their heart of hearts that democrats would fold. Which, to be honest, is entirely reasonable given prior history. What we're seeing now is essentially a decades long rope a dope.

I still see the democrats folding.

They've folded every time on everything for well over a decade now.

Obama needs to start tightening the rope. Cut tsa staffing by 5% a day.
 

gcubed

Member
http://www.nytimes.com/news/fiscal-...assurances-on-default/?smid=tw-thecaucus&_r=0

Called it. The shut down fight is mainly happening because he already knows he will have to cave on the debt ceiling. He wants that to be the first cave, not the second, to save his job.

Well, that says to me that the shutdown will last until the debt ceiling vote. Both will end then.

I have no problem with getting rid of the device tax, just not for a CR or Debt Limit raise. Pass the clean bills and then negotiate... and I'm looking at you GOP, since you refuse to go to conference with the Senate on their budget.
 

pigeon

Banned
but it makes them look like batman villains

And yet it's on the front page of the Daily Caller, at the same time that Eric Cantor's "leaked memo" about how Obama is refusing to negotiate hits National Review. And McConnell goes out of his way to say that Obama is privately as well as publicly resisting negotiation.

Don't kid yourselves. This is a messaging effort. McConnell even SAYS he's wired. You don't think he would have stopped Rand if he started talking about the Civil Rights Act?

It's a setup. They think it makes them look good. Which might be the saddest part, but then, it's Rand and McConnell.
 
I'd keep the medical device tax but shitcan the employer mandate. But not for a clean CR - I'd agree to it later during budget negotiations.

Boehner raised the prospect of a grand bargain-type deal at the White House meeting and was laughed at because everyone feels like they’ve heard this song and dance before. The general feeling is, if he’s really ready to make some tough choices – read, revenue – then great. But the history of this from where we sit is Boehner talking a big game, then bailing as soon as he runs into the inevitable resistance from a certain faction in his caucus. So we will believe it when we see it, but are proceeding under the assumption that this is just more of the same big talk, no walk.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/360254/re-grand-bargain-robert-costa

lmao, so Obama didn't take the bait afterall. Reassuring. Boehner has 3 years of evidence that he can't get his caucus to agree to one cent of revenue, that's not going to magically change now. It's far better to put the onus on him to come up with some general, sensible framework for a deal than rely on solely his word. Because when his word fails and talks break down the WH gets hit with the "Obama can't make a deal/why can't Obama do x" stick from the establishment media/Bob Woodward.
 

Fox318

Member
Why doesn't one of the Tea Party people push Boehner more for impeachment? Tea party has talked about it for so long but now they have the power to do it?

If you are gonna do crazy do it the craziest
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
So I'm watching CNN and Blitzer is actually calling out the House GOP on the whole clean CR vote. It's like sometimes he can remember he's a journalist and this is one of those times. Why can't he do this shit more often? It's not that hard Blizter.
 
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