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[Black Mamba]

So, apparently Kansas is even worse off than reported on months ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/23/u...?rref=upshot&smid=tw-upshotnyt&abt=0002&abg=0

They missed their summer tax revenues target by even more than expected (10%) and way more than any other state and are looking at a massive windfall that is between $250-500 million more than expected which means budget cuts or tax raises are coming no matter what.

Brownback winning this election would be such a shame.

 

[Aaron Strife]

In case you didn't have enough reason to doubt that Suffolk poll, they have Gardner winning women 46-39. Sheesh.

 

[speculawyer]

So, apparently Kansas is even worse off than reported on months ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/23/u...?rref=upshot&smid=tw-upshotnyt&abt=0002&abg=0

They missed their summer tax revenues target by even more than expected (10%) and way more than any other state and are looking at a massive windfall that is between $250-500 million more than expected which means budget cuts or tax raises are coming no matter what.

Brownback winning this election would be such a shame.

How dare you doubt the gospel truth of Saint Reagan!

 

[Tamanon]

Whoa, Tillis bringing out the big guns now. Must be super desperate. He's running a commercial with Rand Paul now. It's a nonsense one about "Kay Hagan thinks you aren't smart enough to pick your doctors". Just a weird waste of getting Paul on there for a weak Obamacare attack.

 

[thepotatoman]

So, apparently Kansas is even worse off than reported on months ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/23/u...?rref=upshot&smid=tw-upshotnyt&abt=0002&abg=0

They missed their summer tax revenues target by even more than expected (10%) and way more than any other state and are looking at a massive windfall that is between $250-500 million more than expected which means budget cuts or tax raises are coming no matter what.

Brownback winning this election would be such a shame.

I still feel like this story is absolutely huge, and should be treated as one of the biggest political stories of the year. I know if a state did a similar progressive dream of instituting a minimum income and a large 70% tax brackets and found businesses everywhere failing to make ends meet and unemployment raise through the roof, I'd strongly reconsider a lot of things, and vote for a moderate republican to get things back on track.

Seriously, what better proof can you have that things have been taken too far than what is happening in Kansas right now?

 

[Wilsongt]

Whoa, Tillis bringing out the big guns now. Must be super desperate. He's running a commercial with Rand Paul now. It's a nonsense one about "Kay Hagan thinks you aren't smart enough to pick your doctors". Just a weird waste of getting Paul on there for a weak Obamacare attack.

What? That's such a stupid point. People are smart enough to pick their doctors. They are just too stupid to pik adequate elected officials.

 

[Aaron Strife]

What? That's such a stupid point. People are smart enough to pick their doctors. They are just too stupid to pik adequate elected officials.

Well yeah, that's why we should repeal the 17th Amendment. Then we can gerrymander the Senate too! (Preemptive "but it already is" comment goes here)

 

[B-Dubs]

Well yeah, that's why we should repeal the 17th Amendment. Then we can gerrymander the Senate too! (Preemptive "but it already is" comment goes here)

How the hell would you gerrymander the Senate? Unless it's a filibuster joke, in which case well done.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

dnc is tweeting out polls showing udall down 2. :/

How the hell would you gerrymander the Senate? Unless it's a filibuster joke, in which case well done.

give the power back to state legislatures. which are gerrymandered

 

[NeoXChaos]

dnc is tweeting out polls showing udall down 2. :/



give the power back to state legislatures. which are gerrymandered

Link to DNC?

 

[RustyNails]

dnc is tweeting out polls showing udall down 2.

Well of course. "Democrats are in danger! Click here to send us $5!"

 

[RustyNails]

Seriously, what better proof can you have that things have been taken too far than what is happening in Kansas right now?

I have heard excuses ranging from the current deficit is the fault of previous administrations to Brownback not cutting enough spending to go along with the tax cuts, to CBO not accurately predicting the numbers, to Obama's expiring of Bush tax cuts to lower sales revenue due to bad economy. They have countless reasons. Of course if you dredge further you will hear cries of him being not conservative enough.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Well of course. "Democrats are in danger! Click here to send us $5!"

Money will not save udall at this point. The solace in all this is that CO & IA will still be purple in the next 4-6 years and demographics will keep all 4 seats competitive for a while now.

Now can someone tell me why Mark Warner of all purple states is cruising to reelection? He clearly must be doing something that Hagan & Udall did not do during their 6 year stint. Warner needs to sprinkle some of that magic to the above. Amazing that out the 4 Marks running(Pryor, Warner, Begich, Udall) Warner might be the only one that survives. Did I mention that Arkansas has had 2 mikes(mike huckabee & mike bebee) serve consecutively and if by miracle mike ross wins he would be the 3rd Governor in a row named mike.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Link to DNC?

https://twitter.com/MikeCzin/status/525071313753636865

its in MoE but still. his post hypes it up and udall is still down.

its clear Udall is down in polling, the question is if that polling reflects the electorate that will vote.

 

[HylianTom]

Money will not save udall at this point. The solace in all this is that CO & IA will still be purple in the next 4-6 years and demographics will keep all 4 seats competitive for a while now.

Now can someone tell me why Mark Warner of all purple states is cruising to reelection? He clearly must be doing something that Hagan & Udall did not do during their 6 year stint. Warner needs to sprinkle some of that magic to the above. Amazing that out the 4 Marks running(Pryor, Warner, Begich, Udall) Warner might be the only one that survives. Did I mention that Arkansas has had 2 mikes(mike huckabee & mike bebee) serve consecutively and if by miracle mike ross wins he would be the 3rd Governor in a row named mike.

Virginia might be tilting for good, which would bode well for a relatively early/calm Election Night 2016..

 

[Ecotic]

Now can someone tell me why Mark Warner of all purple states is cruising to reelection?

He was a very popular former Governor, so long as he did nothing disqualifying he was always going to coast to re-election every time.

There's something uniquely unimpeachable in American politics about being a former popular Governor turned Senator. A lifetime legislator is forever defined as a dirty, money-stuffed politician, but a former State executive is just seen as doing their civic republican duty when they become a Senator.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Money will not save udall at this point. The solace in all this is that CO & IA will still be purple in the next 4-6 years and demographics will keep all 4 seats competitive for a while now.

Now can someone tell me why Mark Warner of all purple states is cruising to reelection? He clearly must be doing something that Hagan & Udall did not do during their 6 year stint. Warner needs to sprinkle some of that magic to the above. Amazing that out the 4 Marks running(Pryor, Warner, Begich, Udall) Warner might be the only one that survives. Did I mention that Arkansas has had 2 mikes(mike huckabee & mike bebee) serve consecutively and if by miracle mike ross wins he would be the 3rd Governor in a row named mike.

Warner plays pretty conservative/bipartisian even if his votes aren't, was a popular Gov, and is well loved and connected in VA. People like him. And he's running against a lobbyist.

one a side note I hope beebe runs in 2016 but wouldn't be surprised if he's out. he'd only maybe get 2 terms he'd be close to 70 running for a first term. though cotes did it recently

 

[NeoXChaos]

Warner plays pretty conservative/bipartisian even if his votes aren't, was a popular Gov, and is well loved and connected in VA. People like him. And he's running against a lobbyist.

one a side note I hope beebe runs in 2016 but wouldn't be surprised if he's out. he'd only maybe get 2 terms he'd be close to 70 running for a first term. though cotes did it recently

John McCain is 80 election day 2016 and he is running again so Bebee can run. He will get pressured by Clinton to do it as well as many other former governors and state officials in Swing and blue states. They have to compete everywhere for potential senate pickups in purple, blue and red states in case of a wave. They have no other choice or risk a 2018 midterm swing back and they need every open Gubernatorial seat in swing states they can get that year like NM & NV

AK, AR, CO, NV, NH, WI, PA, NC, OH, LA, IL, FL, KY etc (2016 senate races)

They cant afford another 2010 or 2014 in 2018. The mid-term curse has to stop its bleeding in 2018 for the D's to get some control going into 2020.

 

[HylianTom]

They cant afford another 2010 or 2014 in 2018. The mid-term curse has to stop its bleeding in 2018 for the D's to get some control going into 2020.

One comforting thought: hopefully we're getting closer to the point where a properly-stacked judiciary will serve as a check on extreme gerrymandering.

 

[Oblivion]

So, apparently Kansas is even worse off than reported on months ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/23/u...?rref=upshot&smid=tw-upshotnyt&abt=0002&abg=0

They missed their summer tax revenues target by even more than expected (10%) and way more than any other state and are looking at a massive windfall that is between $250-500 million more than expected which means budget cuts or tax raises are coming no matter what.

Brownback winning this election would be such a shame.

This really needs way more exposure.

I'd like to see Metaknight's defense for this. Not cause I wanna gloat or anything, but I'd like to see a legit conservative leaner provide some justification.

Whoa, Tillis bringing out the big guns now. Must be super desperate. He's running a commercial with Rand Paul now. It's a nonsense one about "Kay Hagan thinks you aren't smart enough to pick your doctors". Just a weird waste of getting Paul on there for a weak Obamacare attack.

He came out today saying that he's not "ideologically" opposed to medicaid. A teabagger isn't ideologically opposed to a fully government run program? LOL.

I have heard excuses ranging from the current deficit is the fault of previous administrations to Brownback not cutting enough spending to go along with the tax cuts

His majesty, the Lord Ronaldas Mangus never cut spending either.

to CBO not accurately predicting the numbers, to Obama's expiring of Bush tax cuts to lower sales revenue due to bad economy.

But...his stupidass gave some new tax CUTS. The tax cuts should more than have offset Obama's tax hikes.

They have countless reasons. Of course if you dredge further you will hear cries of him being not conservative enough.

What possible non-conservative thing has this douchebag done?

 

[NeoXChaos]

One comforting thought: hopefully we're getting closer to the point where a properly-stacked judiciary will serve as a check on extreme gerrymandering.

I hope so. Congress is so inept these days. Toying with people's lives over their inaction is childish and ill deserving. If your not going to legislate and compromise then all your doing is getting a paycheck. It is a horrible thing to watch. Americans are suffering and Congress is racking in millions over inaction. "Too many on food stamps" but they oppose raising the minimum wage which might get people off them. "I like you Bill, but I cant be seen working with you. My constituency sent me here to stop you". "I know its not right and I don't want to but please understand". "I am going to Washington to prosecute the president"

Republicans deserve an implosion.

 

[ivysaur12]

538 isnt buying anything wrong with the CO polls:

http://53eig.ht/1s9QULk

The FiveThirtyEight forecast projects Gardner as an 80 percent favorite. The polls aren’t too far off from our model’s “fundamentals” projection, which accounts for the state’s partisan history, the national political environment, candidate quality and candidate fundraising. Gardner leads in our fundamentals projection by 0.5 percentage points.

The polls and the fundamentals tell the same basic story: An unpopular incumbent is losing in a purple state against a decent candidate in a slightly Republican-leaning year. That’s a pretty believable story.

 

[NeoXChaos]

538 isnt buying anything wrong with the CO polls:

http://53eig.ht/1s9QULk

Its over. x(

The D's tried but the environment is too much for udall to pull through. The D's got lucky last time.

R+8 I predict it now. I cant believe we are going to be steamrolled again. Why cant we win midterms aside from 2006? I cant believe saying no to Obama allows them to win.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

538 isnt buying anything wrong with the CO polls:

http://53eig.ht/1s9QULk

If this was a silver post I'd be more concerned

enten is crap though, he's absolutely horrible at interpreting data

i'm not going to be shocked if udall loses but that post is horrible and pretty much cherry picking data that counters arguments against the polling rather than grappling with the fundamental questions being raised.

 

[theprodigy]

Its over. x(

The D's tried but the environment is too much for udall to pull through. The D's got lucky last time.

R+8 I predict it now. I cant believe we are going to be steamrolled again. Why cant we win midterms aside from 2006? I cant believe saying no to Obama allows them to win.

Diablos why did you feel the need to make an alt here?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Its over. x(

The D's tried but the environment is too much for udall to pull through. The D's got lucky last time.

R+8 I predict it now. I cant believe we are going to be steamrolled again. Why cant we win midterms aside from 2006? I cant believe saying no to Obama allows them to win.

because we've been in power besides 2002? it SOP vote out the party in power in midterms.

 

[NeoXChaos]

because we've been in power besides 2002? it SOP vote out the party in power in midterms.

We got steamrolled in 2010.

D's good at presidential, bad at midterms?
R's good at midterm, bad at presidential?

 

[HylianTom]

We got steamrolled in 2010.

D's good at presidential, bad at midterms?
R's good at midterm, bad at presidential?

If this is true, I'd much rather be in the Dems' shoes than the Reps'. The GOP can only play defense/prevent/obstruct at this point. And time is not on their side.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

We got steamrolled in 2010.

D's good at presidential, bad at midterms?
R's good at midterm, bad at presidential?

the party out of power has lost midterms for awhile. the big exceptions are 1998 and 2002. otherwise whoever is in power tends to loose.

 

[thepotatoman]

Its over. x(

The D's tried but the environment is too much for udall to pull through. The D's got lucky last time.

R+8 I predict it now. I cant believe we are going to be steamrolled again. Why cant we win midterms aside from 2006? I cant believe saying no to Obama allows them to win.

2010 was odd because people weren't very happy that all focus was on health care when the economy was still in crisis mode, and the health care they did get was a big let down with an individual/business mandate that sounded terrible.

2014 is just a common cyclical occurrence of a president's second midterm where the worst damage is being done in purple states which is actually not so bad. The real loss was back in 2010, which was so bad it became fairly clear that very night that republicans would have the senate in 2014 with the class of 2008 up for reelection. There was a lot to lament that night of long term losses putting 6 years worth of weight on the senate and 10 years of weight on the house.

Part of it may also be looked at as the dieing breath of conservative red state Ds and liberal blue state Rs in an increasingly polarized political atmosphere.

It would be nice to see what would happen in a potentially less eventful midterm like 2018 with only a few senate seats with a chance of changing and there being plenty of time for the gerrymandering to lose a little effectiveness as people move around and demographics shift, but who knows, the economy might be back at '08 levels from student loans busting or auto loan default swaps busting or some other crazy thing like that with the Democrat president getting all the blame.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Nah Udall will win

 

[120v]

it's pretty much given the senate will flip, but i don't read much into it... it just so happens a lot of the seats that are up are from wave elections or states that didn't go obama last election. that and midterms generally aren't great for whoever won the last cycle, and dem turnout is generally lower

i mean, it sucks. and it puts the country in a very precarious position... but the odds of a republican winning the presidency in two years is still very low. and i don't think a republican congress will have much staying power running on derp

 

[Metaphoreus]

This really needs way more exposure.

I'd like to see Metaknight's defense for this. Not cause I wanna gloat or anything, but I'd like to see a legit conservative leaner provide some justification.

Being from Kansas originally, I remain interested in the goings-on in, and well-being of, the state. Unfortunately, not being in Kansas presently, I haven't been able to justify pouring time into researching those goings-on or that well-being, so I can't offer much on that subject. One interesting (and easily researched) metric may bode well for the state, however: FY2014 (July 2013 - June 2014) state sales tax collections were up 2% over FY2013 (July 2012 - June 2013) collections, despite a cut in the state sales tax rate from 6.3% to 6.15% effective July 1, 2013. A quick calculation shows that those increased collections correspond to a 4.5% increase in sales. Importantly, I don't know how that compares to past years or to similarly situated states that didn't cut taxes, but it's something, at least.

 

[thcsquad]

it's pretty much given the senate will flip, but i don't read much into it... it just so happens a lot of the seats that are up are from wave elections or states that didn't go obama last election. that and midterms generally aren't great for whoever won the last cycle, and dem turnout is generally lower

i mean, it sucks. and it puts the country in a very precarious position... but the odds of a republican winning the presidency in two years is still very low. and i don't think a republican congress will have much staying power running on derp

Also, the Senate fundamentals are just as bad for the Republicans in 2016 as they are for the Democrats in 2014. Even if a Republican somehow won the presidency, he would have a Democratic Senate.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Also, the Senate fundamentals are just as bad for the Republicans in 2016 as they are for the Democrats in 2014. Even if a Republican somehow won the presidency, he would have a Democratic Senate.

But it will involve D's beating many incumbents like McCain and Grassely. Hard task to do when the only possible open R seat is Fl if Rubio runs for president & GA if Isackson retires.

and in all my constant postings, I realized the D's dodged a bullet with Peters in MI

 

[PhoenixDark]

Rubio could lose regardless. He has alienated his base and the tea party is begging Allen West to take him on. All democrats need is a good candidate.

 

[benjipwns]

D's good at presidential, bad at midterms?
R's good at midterm, bad at presidential?

Go back to 1986 and ask people this.

Spoiler

Then ask them where the nuclear wessels are.

Spoiler

Hello computer.

 

[Diablos]

Rubio for VP 2016. Book it.

 

[HylianTom]

Rubio for VP 2016. Book it.

If they were purely playing for the electoral map, it'd have to be Walker-Rubio, right?

 

[Armoured Priest]

Go back to 1986 and ask people this.

Spoiler

Then ask them where the nuclear wessels are.

Spoiler

Hello computer.

Spoiler

"Alameda" and "use the keyboard."

 

[HylianTom]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/reagan-aide-calls-for-southern-secession

Reagan Aide Wants The South To Secede And Form Anti-Gay 'Reagan' Nation

A former aide to President Ronald Reagan is calling for southern states to secede from the union and form a new conservative nation called "Reagan" where citizens wouldn't be forced to compromise on "traditional values" like marriage.

Right Wing Watch on Wednesday flagged conservative author Douglas MacKinnon's interview with evangelical radio host Janet Mefferd, in which he hocked his new book, "The Secessionist States of America: The Blueprint for Creating a Traditional Values County … Now." Cautioning that all his secession talk was purely "academic," MacKinnon suggested that South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida break away from the United States and form a new republic named "Reagan."

"You have to remember that all 11 states from the South, including ultimately Texas, seceded legally," MacKinnon told Mefferd. "They left the union peacefully, they left the union legally, and then President Lincoln … part of the problem there was that the North realized very quickly that it could not survive economically without the power of the South."

Secession over gay marriage? A country named "Reagan?" (And why not "Reagonia" or "Ronaldland?"). This is fantastic stuff.

 

[speculawyer]

Its over. x(

The D's tried but the environment is too much for udall to pull through. The D's got lucky last time.

R+8 I predict it now. I cant believe we are going to be steamrolled again. Why cant we win midterms aside from 2006? I cant believe saying no to Obama allows them to win.

That is a great Diablosing impression.

 

[RustyNails]

Rubio for VP 2016. Book it.

Awesome. Will be amazing to see him backpedal on immigration like old man McCain did. He is gonna need a bigger water bottle.

 

[speculawyer]

If this is true, I'd much rather be in the Dems' shoes than the Reps'. The GOP can only play defense/prevent/obstruct at this point. And time is not on their side.

But here is the sad thing . . . that is their political governing objective at this point. They don't need to hold majority power to do nothing, they just need enough seats.


Can you name a single thing the GOP actually wants to do?

 

[speculawyer]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/reagan-aide-calls-for-southern-secession

Reagan Aide Wants The South To Secede And Form Anti-Gay 'Reagan' Nation


Secession over gay marriage? A country named "Reagan?" (And why not "Reagonia" or "Ronaldland?"). This is fantastic stuff.

These people are fucking bigoted and senile . Reagan was against the anti-gay Prop 6 (Briggs Initiative).

 

[HylianTom]

But here is the sad thing . . . that is their political governing objective at this point. They don't need to hold majority power to do nothing, they just need enough seats.


Can you name a single thing the GOP actually wants to do?

Hmm. Claim that the free market will solve all of our social, economic, and existential woes while funneling money in various forms to their favored donors?

For many issues facing the country and humanity, they won't even get to step one - admitting that there is a problem.

I'd love to see a Democrat point this out in a primetime convention speech, when a somewhat significant portion of the country is paying attention. Maybe Bill Clinton could kill them on this, delivering the message in his usual folksy way..?

Wasn't Reagan our first divorcee president?

Yup!

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/reagan-aide-calls-for-southern-secession

Reagan Aide Wants The South To Secede And Form Anti-Gay 'Reagan' Nation


Secession over gay marriage? A country named "Reagan?" (And why not "Reagonia" or "Ronaldland?"). This is fantastic stuff.

Wasn't Reagan our first divorcee president?

 

[NeoXChaos]

That is a great Diablosing impression.

Who is Diablos? Overreacting statements guy? I am new x(

 

[Wilsongt]

Who is Diablos? Overreacting statements guy? I am new x(

Yes. You learn quick.

Republican New Hampshire senatorial candidate Scott Brown (R-Northeast) has largely survived carpetbagging accusations after moving from Massachusetts, where he lost a reelection bid for his Senate seat, to New Hampshire, where he challenges incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH).

But that doesn’t mean things don’t get awkward sometimes. Via WMUR’s James Pindell, a campaign finance report shows Brown donating to his own campaign — and listing his employment as state senator for “the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.”

lololol

Brown should just go back to posing nude. You can't mess that up. That much.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Yes. You learn quick.



lololol

Brown should just go back to posing nude. You can't mess that up. That much.

I cant help it. x)

Scott Brown's political career ends November 4th.