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[benjipwns]

I'm going by PPP's most recent poll which showed a tie. I tend to trust their polling above most others.

But above all others?

At least that one has Barack Obama winning the 2012 vote. lol

EDIT: Snyder is destroying Schauer with independents now according to that poll, wasn't the case six months ago when they were even.

And 22% of the black vote!

 

[ivysaur12]

Sam Wang has Senate control at 50-50. Nice to see after it fell so hard recently.

Given the momentum towards Nunn, you'd expect these probabilities to drift back towards a median (538 is down a tick too, but still above 60%).

 

[benjipwns]

 

[thepotatoman]

Do voters really like republicans on the issues better than democrats, or are republicans more partisan and less likely to ever consider democrats being better at anything?

I might look at that poll more as proof that democrat voters are more likely to say "both sides are the same" on various issues. At least anecdotally that's definitely true.

 

[JesseEwiak]

Do voters really like republicans on the issues better than democrats, or are republicans more partisan and less likely to ever consider democrats being better at anything?

I might look at that poll more as proof that democrat voters are more likely to say "both sides are the same" on various issues. At least anecdotally that's definitely true.

I think moderates prefer the magical Republican's in their head view on various issues, which if you ask them, basically end up being the Democratic position, with less waste and fraud.

 

[Diablos]

If Baker wins it will generate a kind of "Northeast conservative Governors omfg" media hype.
Coakley must have a lot of connections in order to run for something big again.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I'm going by PPP's most recent poll which showed a tie. I tend to trust their polling above most others.

This will come down to turnout. If turnout is high Schauer wins.

Let me ask you: Do you think Snyder would prefer - for the sake of his own campaign - if Land was in a close contest, or if she were getting blown out like she is now?

Sam Wang has Senate control at 50-50. Nice to see after it fell so hard recently.

Of course any campaign would prefer to have decent people in close races on their ticket, but it's clearly not a noteworthy issue here. Land is getting blown out while Snyder is constantly up by 4-6 points in polls. They're considered different types of politicians. Land has run a race based entirely around outside money and outside views (ie what her financiers want her to believe). She's the worst senate candidate in the country. Whereas Snyder is doing fine with voters, is winning independents, wins a decent amount of black support, and most importantly had convinced people that the state is on the right track.

Shauer wasn't going to win unless the economy was in utter shambles. Unless black voting reaches 2012 levels or comes close he's fucked.

 

[Plinko]

LOL at republicans having edge on economy. Come on, people.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Given the momentum towards Nunn, you'd expect these probabilities to drift back towards a median (538 is down a tick too, but still above 60%).

It's hard to say how good this is considering a lead won't matter if she doesn't clear the runoff. Granted, if she DOES have the lead in the initial count that could give her a boost, but I'm skeptical she could win in that. CNN did release a poll that had her up 51-47 in a two way but it remains to be seen if the turnout will be at that level.

 

[BSsBrolly]

LOL at republicans having edge on economy. Come on, people.

Now you know why Republicans fought so hard against the economy. They knew Obama would be blamed for it and the rest of the Democrats along with him.

I look forward to the day this kind of strategy backfires in a brutal way.... That'll never happen, will it?

 

[NeoXChaos]

LOL at republicans having edge on economy. Come on, people.

Agreed. They are the reason the economy is in this mess in the first place.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Really shows that views are less idealogical than economical. If the economy was good people would side with democrats. I think this is understandable but also a sign of how people treat important topics like fast food. We got into an economic mess because both parties deregulated the financial sector and let it go wild...now people want to give the reigns to the only party cheerleading deregulation? The same party which lambasts economic issues most people support like raising the minimum wage and expanding Medicaid?

We wasted a trillion dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives in Iraq...now people want to go back because a couple people got beheaded in the wrong place at the wrong time. Fear.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Guy Cecil (DSCC executive director) on Bloomberg Politics talking about Senate elections. Here's some tidbits:

Alaska - Will turnout the most disenfranchised votes in the country, there are offices in the middle of nowhere. Native vote bigger than it was for presidential election. 150 paid staff, 600 canvassers. Third party candidate will be important.

Arkansas - Registered 95,000 new black voters in Pine Bluff and Little Rock. Hoping for 5% increase over 2010/90% of 2012 turnout.

Colorado - Vote-by-mail will be key, thinks there will be over 2 million votes this time.

Georgia - Nunn will outperform the last Democrats to run in South Georgia, internals have her at 46-47.

Iowa - Dominating with those who didn't vote in 2010, 22% lead with those voters. Most of the early Republican voters voted in 2010. Braley's ahead in Des Moines, eastern Iowa and his district.

Kansas - Never polled, not spending anything.

Kentucky - Almost a tied race.

Louisiana - Thinks there's a chance to hit 50, early black vote highest it's ever been, 900,000 more registered black voters than there were pre-Katrina. Internal polls have Landrieu at 47%.

New Hampshire - Shaheen was up 5 in their last internal, has never dropped below 50 in their polling.

North Carolina - Has stayed at a 4-5 point Hagan lead for the past six weeks, steady lead over the past six months. Haugh is taking votes from both Hagan and Tillis, Hagan leads in both 2 way and 3 way contests.

South Dakota - Weiland within single digits, Republican polls suck. DSCC will be on the air and in the field until the end.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Guy Cecil (DSCC executive director) on Bloomberg Politics talking about Senate elections. Here's some tidbits:

Alaska - Will turnout the most disenfranchised votes in the country, there are offices in the middle of nowhere. Native vote bigger than it was for presidential election. 150 paid staff, 600 canvassers. Third party candidate will be important.

Arkansas - Registered 95,000 new black voters in Pine Bluff and Little Rock. Hoping for 5% increase over 2010/90% of 2012 turnout.

Colorado - Vote-by-mail will be key, thinks there will be over 2 million votes this time.

Georgia - Nunn will outperform the last Democrats to run in South Georgia, internals have her at 46-47.

Iowa - Dominating with those who didn't vote in 2010, 22% lead with those voters. Most of the early Republican voters voted in 2010. Braley's ahead in Des Moines, eastern Iowa and his district.

Kansas - Never polled, not spending anything.

Kentucky - Almost a tied race.

Louisiana - Thinks there's a chance to hit 50, early black vote highest it's ever been, 900,000 more registered black voters than there were pre-Katrina. Internal polls have Landrieu at 47%.

New Hampshire - Shaheen was up 5 in their last internal, has never dropped below 50 in their polling.

North Carolina - Has stayed at a 4-5 point Hagan lead for the past six weeks, steady lead over the past six months. Haugh is taking votes from both Hagan and Tillis, Hagan leads in both 2 way and 3 way contests.

South Dakota - Weiland within single digits, Republican polls suck. DSCC will be on the air and in the field until the end.

I hope he is not bluffing.

If not and the D's pull this off? Oh boy. Republican meltdown we have never witnessed in our lifetime will commence. Grab the popcorn because it is going to be absolutely beautiful(plz be true).

 

[HylianTom]

I'm sorry, but I love stories like this:

Gohmert: Gays Shouldn't Serve in Military Because They'd Just Be 'Getting Massages All Day'

I’ve had people say, “Hey, you know, there’s nothing wrong with gays in the military. Look at the Greeks.” Well, you know, they did have people come along who they loved that was the same sex and would give them massages before they went into battle. But you know what, it’s a different kind of fighting, it’s a different kind of war and if you’re sitting around getting massages all day ready to go into the big, planned battle, then you’re not going to last very long. It’s guerrilla fighting. You are going to be ultimately vulnerable to terrorism and, you know, if that’s what you start doing in the military like the Greeks did, as people have said, “Louie, you have got to understand, you don’t even know your history.” Oh, yes, I do. I know exactly. It’s not a good idea.

Not all at surprising, coming from crazy Louie.. he apparently spends a lot of time thinking about this topic.

(I'm linking to the FR thread because that's the meat ("meat".. huh huh!) of the mini-article they're discussing.)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3219116/posts

 

[Jack Remington]

A few months ago, I was pretty confident because all that was needed to prevent a GOP Senate was a split among LA, Iowa, CO, Arkansas, Alaska, and Kentucky. Pryor was in good shape, Begich was in good shape, and I didn't even consider the idea of losing Iowa.

Now it's looking like Democrats will go 0 for 6. Even 1 for 5 in those races would be an improvement over the polls. Even with Nunn and Orman coming out of nowhere, we're still looking at 51-49 R. Jesus.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Nah we'll be fine.

 

[Jack Remington]

It's not really "we" for me. I don't identify as a Democrat at all. I'm just in horror of the idea of a GOP Congress.

And McConnell is one of the biggest scumbags alive right now.

 

[NeoXChaos]

It's not really "we" for me. I don't identify as a Democrat at all. I'm just in horror of the idea of a GOP Congress.

And McConnell is one of the biggest scumbags alive right now.

I'm sure underneath McConnell is a warm, nice and friendly man. He probably acts tough in front of the cameras. He is a dad so I'm sure he has a soft side. (or atleast I would hope in our politicians when they are off partisan script)

Then again, most are there to serve their own interest. x(

 

[thepotatoman]

Kansas - Never polled, not spending anything.

My gut reaction to this sort of thing is always that of rage that someone like the DSCC would discount such an obviously important and winnable state.

And then I remember the DSCC can't act that way because Orman's not a democrat and can't be seen as a democrat.

Kind of impressive how well Orman's doing basically all by himself.

 

[GhaleonEB]

It's not really "we" for me. I don't identify as a Democrat at all. I'm just in horror of the idea of a GOP Congress.

And McConnell is one of the biggest scumbags alive right now.

I think that's what he meant.

We'll be fine.

 

[Jack Remington]

I wonder if Grimes would be in better shape if she'd run as an independent.

 

[Aaron Strife]

My gut reaction to this sort of thing is always that of rage that someone like the DSCC would discount such an obviously important and winnable state.

And then I remember the DSCC can't act that way because Orman's not a democrat and can't be seen as a democrat.

Kind of impressive how well Orman's doing basically all by himself.

If he wins I expect No Labels/Americans Elect/other such groups going hard on independent candidates in House and Senate races in 2016. I think there's always been a potential for a centrist-y third party (read: people who are basically moderate Democrats but technically nonpartisan) to break through but it has to be a coordinated campaign. Most third parties simply try and nominate someone famous for their presidential ticket and hope the cult of personality alone will raise awareness. The problem is that people didn't vote for Ralph Nader (for example) because they supported the Green Party, they voted for him because he was the lessest (?) of three evils.

Senate Majority PAC just released a new ad against McConnell. Holy crap, it's brutal.

 

[Jack Remington]

I kind of lost hope in Kentucky voters after reading that interview with people who had gained health insurance for the first time in years dup to Kynect, but still planned to vote McConnell.

 

[Oblivion]

Republicans leading Democrats by 6 on the economy.

Obama not doing a good job fixing the economy? Let's vote in the guys who destroyed it in the first place!

ARGH.

 

[Teggy]

If Baker wins it will generate a kind of "Northeast conservative Governors omfg" media hype.
Coakley must have a lot of connections in order to run for something big again.

Meh. Republican governors have been common in MA. Baker is pro-choice and pro-same-sex marriage. I'm surprised those guys who told people not to vote for Richard Tisei haven't said not to vote for Baker either.

 

[Oblivion]

My man:

#Caintrain2016

 

[Aaron Strife]

"A rising tide lifts all boats?" That's just what Nintendo says about Wii sales

 

[spyder_ur]

My man:

#Caintrain2016

If your boat is at the bottom of the ocean aren't you pretty damn screwed regardless?

 

[theprodigy]

"A rising tide lifts all boats?" That's just what Nintendo says about Wii sales

There's a joke about sinking tides and the Wii U here somewhere...

 

[Teggy]

My man:

Is that english? Because I sure as hell don't know what that means. Boats stack on top of other boats?

 

[B-Dubs]

My man:

#Caintrain2016

I don't think he understands that turn of phrase at all...

 

[Aaron Strife]

what

 

[Teggy]

what

Is that girl intending to turn that into a tattoo? Weird either way. I guess more weird if she's getting tattooed with Purdue's signature, but weird regardless.

 

[Wilsongt]

Gohmert saying gays are getting massages, Steve King saying that he won't see gays in heaven.

Should we change our "Number of days without a GOP mention or rape" to "Number of days without a GOP mention of gays?"

 

[RustyNails]

...so Herman Cain Nintendo fanboy confirmed.

 

[jamesinclair]

If your boat is at the bottom of the ocean aren't you pretty damn screwed regardless?

If youre at the bottom, a low tide helps you, as youre now above water.

A low tide is also great for small, middle and low class boats like canoes and small rafts. Yachts get fucked with a low tide.

 

[FiggyCal]

what

Video was removed. Can I pls get a vivid description?

My man:

#Caintrain2016

By helping the top 1% at the bottom, we can help the bottom 99% at the top. His logic is sound.

Edit: I didn't even realize, he really doesn't know what he's talking about. It's not just a bad analogy.

 

[speculawyer]

I'm sorry, but I love stories like this:

Gohmert: Gays Shouldn't Serve in Military Because They'd Just Be 'Getting Massages All Day'


Not all at surprising, coming from crazy Louie.. he apparently spends a lot of time thinking about this topic.

(I'm linking to the FR thread because that's the meat ("meat".. huh huh!) of the mini-article they're discussing.)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3219116/posts

Oh please let there be audio of this.

 

[speculawyer]

My man:

#Caintrain2016

I am laughing so hard at this. WTF does that even mean? The boats at the bottom? The ones that are already sunk?


He has got to be performance artist.

 

[demon]

I am laughing so hard at this. WTF does that even mean? The boats at the bottom? The ones that are already sunk?


He has got to be performance artist.

*puffs cigarette*
*creepy smile*

 

[Joe Molotov]

Oh please let there be audio of this.

Audio AND Video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWlmtcGxvyI

 

[speculawyer]

Audio AND Video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWlmtcGxvyI

That was glorious. PoliGAF providing me the laughs today.

 

[Oblivion]

What a douche:

BLITZER: You said "I guarantee we would not be worrying about Ebola right now had Mitt Romney been president of the United States." Do you stand by that?

BROWN: With all respect, what I said, we were talking about many different issues. We were talking about Obamacare. We were talking about him being right on Russia. And I said and I'll say it again. Had he been in charge, we would have a clear, concise policy as to what we're going to do, where we're going, and how we can help, and with regard to immigration. …

BLITZER: Let me interrupt, Senator. You also said, "we would not be worrying about Ebola right now" if Romney had been president.

BROWN: No, that's taken out of context. ...

BLITZER: It's not taken out of context. This was in the Fox News interview last Friday.

BROWN: Once again, it was taken out of context. If you take the whole answer, when we talked about obviously him being right on Obamacare, him being right on Russia, and that he, that we would not be in this situation with regard to the economy. …

BLITZER: Let me read to you exactly what you said. You said, "Mitt was great. Can you imagine if Mitt was president right now? He was right on Russia, he was right on Obamacare, he was right on the economy, and I guarantee you we would not be worrying about Ebola right now or worrying about our foreign policy screw-ups."

BROWN: Thank you for repeating it for the fourth time.

 

[Wilsongt]

That idiot.

 

[Aaron Strife]

R affiliated poll has Begich up 10 in Alaska

It would be hilarious if this was the only poll that got it right.

 

[Teggy]

Video was removed. Can I pls get a vivid description

Girl (sort of pudgy, not a girls gone wild sort of thing) lifts shirt and asks Purdue to sign her side. Guys carrying Purdue signs hold them up to block the camera.

 

[Coriolanus]

What a douche:

Wut. When did blitzer grow a spine?

 

[ivysaur12]

Girl (sort of pudgy, not a girls gone wild sort of thing) lifts shirt and asks Purdue to sign her side. Guys carrying Purdue signs hold them up to block the camera.

He was singing her insulin pump, it seems

 

[Particle Physicist]

What a douche:

I love when the robot malfunctions and actually takes someone to task.