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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World

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So GDP had 3.5% growth in the third quarter.

High GDP growth, low unemployment, and yet the Dems are still gonna lose the senate. America, ladies and gentlemen.

:cryingeagle

I am quite disappointed how forgetful and ungrateful people are.

FFS, the stock market is at record highs, gas prices are CHEAP, unemployment is low, interest rates are still low, GDP growth is high, inflation is controlled, the deficit is at one of the lowest rates compared to GDP in the last 40 years . . . and yet people still whine?


I guess we have to get into some wars and crash the financial system again because people forgot already. Idiots.
 
CNN: Ernst up 2, Hagan up 2 among likely voters.

Including all voters though Braley and Hagan are both up 6.

Given the ferocity of Democrats' GOTV operation in both states I think that might be closer to the truth.

Would be funny if after spending months Diablosing over Iowa he wins by like 5
 

Elrond Hubbard

Neo Member
My final predictions:

MT, SD, WV - Easy GOP pickups
NC - Hagan
LA - Cassidy
GA - Perdue in a runoff
AR - Cotton
CO - Udall in a squeaker
IA - Braley in another squeaker
KS - Orman
KY - Turtle with a comfortable win
AK - Begich

50 D, 49 R, 1 I.

Not willing to bet an avatar on it though.
 

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
I am quite disappointed how forgetful and ungrateful people are.

FFS, the stock market is at record highs, gas prices are CHEAP, unemployment is low, interest rates are still low, GDP growth is high, inflation is controlled, the deficit is at one of the lowest rates compared to GDP in the last 40 years . . . and yet people still whine?


I guess we have to get into some wars and crash the financial system again because people forgot already. Idiots.

You're not leaving a lot of room for low-income people who, out of that selection, would probably only care about the gas prices. You know, on the whole those are real improvements to the economy I suppose, but the high level of inequality means that that's not being felt by the majority of voters.
 
My final predictions:

MT, SD, WV - Easy GOP pickups
NC - Hagan
LA - Cassidy
GA - Perdue in a runoff
AR - Cotton
CO - Udall in a squeaker
IA - Braley in another squeaker
KS - Orman
KY - Turtle with a comfortable win
AK - Begich

50 D, 49 R, 1 I.

Not willing to bet an avatar on it though.
Head is telling me 50-50 split. Udall and Braley win, Orman caucuses with the Democrats or starts a "fuck y'all" caucus with King or something. Begich, Pryor, Landrieu, Nunn, Grimes lose in addition to WV/SD/MT which are foregone conclusions.

Gut is telling me 53-47, which is basically your prediction but Democrats win the runoffs in LA and GA. Pryor and Grimes lose.

Heart is telling me 56-44 where Democrats win everything including South Dakota. The shock is so huge Reince Priebus accidentally says his name backwards at the following press conference and returns to his ancient puzzle box while taking Boehner with him a la Jafar and Iago at the end of Aladdin.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I'm kind of feeling the 48 D - 52 R at this point.

Udall seems to be in a tougher place than Bennett was, and Bennett barely won in the first place, making me not feel so good about relying on the polling bias. I'm not really liking the early voting numbers here.

Iowa doesn't seem to have near as much of a history of bad polling, outside of 2012 presidential race, making me wonder if there's enough to count on there being any polling bias at all. I also don't trust the good turnout numbers over 2010 because 2010 was so bad, anything would be an improvement there.

Hagan and Shaheen win. Both their polls aren't exactly showing them that much stronger than Ersnt or Gardner which we all agree are still vulnerable to losing, but early voting seems to be confirming their leads.

That's 47-50 on election night.

LA goes to Cassidy as we all expect on Dec 8th, completely sealing the senate for Republicans.

Orman wins but caucuses with republicans to join with the majority party. Though he'll still swing on a lot of issues that Roberts wouldn't have, and will thus still be a victory in my eyes. He still might caucus with Democrats if Republicans feel they don't need him and don't want him, but McConnell will probably keep that from happening.

Nunn barely misses 50% in less than 40,000 votes, bringing the lost voter registrations into play big time. Combine that with Republican laziness of already having the senate, and Nunn wins January 6th runoff easy.

I do still wonder if Angus King will do what he says and caucus with republicans if they win, making it 47 D - 53 R, but no one else seems to care about it or believe it.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
I am quite disappointed how forgetful and ungrateful people are.

FFS, the stock market is at record highs, gas prices are CHEAP, unemployment is low, interest rates are still low, GDP growth is high, inflation is controlled, the deficit is at one of the lowest rates compared to GDP in the last 40 years . . . and yet people still whine?


I guess we have to get into some wars and crash the financial system again because people forgot already. Idiots.

What hasn't budged and has actually gotten worse: wages for middle income earners. The stock market doesn't affect them much, no one cares about the deficit, GDP is top-heavy (corporate profits are up...that doesn't help people), the jobs coming back have been (until recently) lower wage jobs than before the crash. Low inflation and lower gas prices are nice, but most people haven't really felt the recovery since their wages either haven't budged or are lower than before the recession.

People are pretty foolish/ignorant/forgetful about how we got in this situation, but I can't blame folks for being angry about the economy. It's not helping them.
 
People are pretty foolish/ignorant/forgetful about how we got in this situation, but I can't blame folks for being angry about the economy. It's not helping them.
Because they keep electing morons that impede progress. It's a vicious circle created by fat cats with fat wallets to keep the people placid about everything. I normally dont like condensing complicated stuff to a one-liner like this. But everything speculawyer said is true and then some. They should look at the whole picture instead of just looking at their pockets. I'll go one step further and say most of the Americans are stupid and downright idiotic when it comes to politics. We cherish values like "I wanna have a beer with him" over "He has a PhD in economics". Michael Grimm, who has been indicted on 20 counts of fraud and threatened to throw a journalist over the balcony is leading by 4 points. That slimeball Christian Conservative congressman from Tennessee who is staunchly pro-life and heavy on family values forced his mistress to have abortions, and he is going to win on Tuesday. Because the voters think "they are like them". Smart politicians have to behave like idiots to appeal to idiots. Look at Obama. He also does it sometimes. Its IDIOTIC. Republicans have mastered the American politics and have the whole country eating out of their hands when it comes to their creation myths (high deficit is bad! government is evil!), and our idiotic citizenry now thinks Republicans are more adept at handling economy and foreign policy. Goobmints am evil! dumbocRATS are vampires who want to destroy you with social safety net programs and EPA! Elect us, we will go and show those politician snakes HOW to run a proper government. 2 years later, it's the same thing again.
 

benjipwns

Banned
The Voter/Non-Voter lists/mailers aren't attempts at voter suppression, they're trying to shame people with peer pressure into wasting their valuable time on voting.

They'd do it with the actual votes if they could, but the stupid secret ballot prevents it.
 

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
AqVASx4.jpg

The local elections here are depressing. Why is coroner an elected office?
 

benjipwns

Banned
I am quite disappointed how forgetful and ungrateful people are.

FFS, the stock market is at record highs, gas prices are CHEAP, unemployment is low, interest rates are still low, GDP growth is high, inflation is controlled, the deficit is at one of the lowest rates compared to GDP in the last 40 years . . . and yet people still whine?
Seriously, just look at that list of all the good things the GOP House and GOP members of the Senate have helped bring about.

EDIT: Can't forget SCOTUS! Medals all around!
 

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
Because they keep electing morons that impede progress. It's a vicious circle created by fat cats with fat wallets to keep the people placid about everything. I normally dont like condensing complicated stuff to a one-liner like this. But everything speculawyer said is true and then some. They should look at the whole picture instead of just looking at their pockets. I'll go one step further and say most of the Americans are stupid and downright idiotic when it comes to politics. We cherish values like "I wanna have a beer with him" over "He has a PhD in economics". Michael Grimm, who has been indicted on 20 counts of fraud and threatened to throw a journalist over the balcony is leading by 4 points. That slimeball Christian Conservative congressman from Tennessee who is staunchly pro-life and heavy on family values forced his mistress to have abortions, and he is going to win on Tuesday. Because the voters think "they are like them". Smart politicians have to behave like idiots to appeal to idiots. Look at Obama. He also does it sometimes. Its IDIOTIC. Republicans have mastered the American politics and have the whole country eating out of their hands when it comes to their creation myths (high deficit is bad! government is evil!), and our idiotic citizenry now thinks Republicans are more adept at handling economy and foreign policy. Goobmints am evil! dumbocRATS are vampires who want to destroy you with social safety net programs and EPA! Elect us, we will go and show those politician snakes HOW to run a proper government. 2 years later, it's the same thing again.
Yeah, I mean, middle and low-income voters should prefer left-wing politics when it comes to economics and I suppose that means they should vote for the Dems if the economy is their chief concern. But, the point being made here is that the improving economy has only been noticeable to the wealthy. It's disingenuous to say they should look at the big picture and be happy when their lives, for the most part, haven't gotten better under a Democratic presidency.
 
CNN: Ernst up 2, Hagan up 2 among likely voters.

Including all voters though Braley and Hagan are both up 6.

Given the ferocity of Democrats' GOTV operation in both states I think that might be closer to the truth.

Would be funny if after spending months Diablosing over Iowa he wins by like 5
Going by the ad tone benchmark (neg ads means candidate is desperate to move numbers, positive ads means candidate is winning going away,) it's Ernst in a landslide. Finally saw a positive Braley ad this morning, but it's been all attack other than that for the past few weeks. I even saw a negative yard sign for Braley in my neighborhood.

EDIT: Which should not be taken to mean that I think it's Ernst in a landslide. I'd normally say Braley by 4-5%, but I'm not sure how much Branstad's coattails are going to help Joni.
 
AqVASx4.jpg

The local elections here are depressing. Why is coroner an elected office?
I can understand it being an elected office, but why is it a partisan office. That's just crazy

But then in MN you have Republican-endorsed school board candidates which is bullshit.

Squirrel Killer said:
Going by the ad tone benchmark (neg ads means candidate is desperate to move numbers, positive ads means candidate is winning going away,) it's Ernst in a landslide. Finally saw a positive Braley ad this morning, but it's been all attack other than that for the past few weeks. I even saw a negative yard sign for Braley in my neighborhood.
Something upward of 80% of Obama's ads in both 2008 and 2012 were negative. I question this line of thinking.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
So this is a very bizarre poll to look at:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/.../28/National-Politics/Polling/release_371.xml

The Republicans absolutely thrash the Democrats (and Obama) on pretty much every subject. And yet, despite all that:

Overall, which party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years?

Dems: 39%
Reps: 37%

This fucking country.

Also too:

Do you think the U.S. economic system (generally favors the wealthy) or (is fair to most Americans)?

Favors the wealthy: 71%
Is fair to most Americans: 24%

And yet, they will still choose Republicans to control the senate next week.

To reiterate: this fucking country.
 

Averon

Member
And yet, they will still choose Republicans to control the senate next week.

To reiterate: this fucking country.

"These policies may screw me over 9 times out of 10 right now. But, dammit, I may get rich someday, and I want these policies to be there when I hit it big!"
 

Diablos

Member
That's fucking fraud. I don't give a fuck what the law/our rights say, our laws and often rights tend to be ass backwards and this is a textbook fucking example. It's a mailer designed with the sole purpose of intimidating/scaring voters.

Any other westernized country -- hell, any country that is not a full blown totalitarian state/dictatorship would not stand for this, PERIOD.

I swear, if you play a really long game, as in looking ahead 50 years, the US is doing a fine job of slowly but surely ensuring there will be a coffin to put the final nail into. This is ABSURD.
 
That's fucking fraud. I don't give a fuck what the law/our rights say, our laws and often rights tend to be ass backwards and this is a textbook fucking example. It's a mailer designed with the sole purpose of intimidating/scaring voters.
Sadly I think it falls under "FREEDOMS". I think US courts traditionally are very apprehensive on stopping things that are in the grey zone between offensive versus free speech
 

Diablos

Member
Sadly I think it falls under "FREEDOMS". I think US courts traditionally are very apprehensive on stopping things that are in the grey zone between offensive versus free speech
Explain to me how this is free speech?

One should not be free to falsely accuse a voter of committing voter fraud when there is zero evidence. This is absurd.

Going by this logic a police officer should be able to arrest me for theft because I unlocked my own vehicle.
 
Explain to me how this is free speech?

One should not be free to falsely accuse a voter of committing fraud.

That's like a police officer arresting your for theft when he saw you enter your own car.
I think this is better suited for metabolism to answer, but I mean the courts ruled that Fox News can spew legit bullshit under "News" banner, moved away from fighting words doctrine, protects hate speech etc. I think this is small beans compared to some of that stuff.
 

Diablos

Member
I think this is better suited for metabolism to answer, but I mean the courts ruled that Fox News can spew legit bullshit under "News" banner, moved away from fighting words doctrine, protects hate speech etc. I think this is small beans compared to some of that stuff.
Metamucil can lecture to me all he wants; while I accept the reality of the situation that does not make it right.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
"Free speech" is not a type of speech that can be distinguished from other types, like "offensive speech." It refers to the lack of government control over what is said, regardless what adjectives might be used to describe what is said.

Aside from being in poor (though creative) taste, I don't see what's wrong with McConnell's mailing (though I confess I don't know whether what is said inside the advertisement is true). It's a stretch to say that the mailing accuses the recipient of engaging in election fraud; it states clearly on the front that the person is "at risk of acting on fraudulent information." To the extent that the mailing can be construed as accusing Grimes of committing election fraud (and I don't think it's much of a stretch to say it does), then it can be dealt with under existing defamation laws, without the need to further restrict political speech.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Because they keep electing morons that impede progress. It's a vicious circle created by fat cats with fat wallets to keep the people placid about everything. I normally dont like condensing complicated stuff to a one-liner like this. But everything speculawyer said is true and then some. They should look at the whole picture instead of just looking at their pockets. I'll go one step further and say most of the Americans are stupid and downright idiotic when it comes to politics. We cherish values like "I wanna have a beer with him" over "He has a PhD in economics". Michael Grimm, who has been indicted on 20 counts of fraud and threatened to throw a journalist over the balcony is leading by 4 points. That slimeball Christian Conservative congressman from Tennessee who is staunchly pro-life and heavy on family values forced his mistress to have abortions, and he is going to win on Tuesday. Because the voters think "they are like them". Smart politicians have to behave like idiots to appeal to idiots. Look at Obama. He also does it sometimes. Its IDIOTIC. Republicans have mastered the American politics and have the whole country eating out of their hands when it comes to their creation myths (high deficit is bad! government is evil!), and our idiotic citizenry now thinks Republicans are more adept at handling economy and foreign policy. Goobmints am evil! dumbocRATS are vampires who want to destroy you with social safety net programs and EPA! Elect us, we will go and show those politician snakes HOW to run a proper government. 2 years later, it's the same thing again.

Right, I don't think we actually disagree with one another. The GOP's great political accomplishment is getting people to vote against their own interests. In fact they actively fight against their own interests. We agree on the diagnoses, but I disagreed with the assessment that people are ungrateful for this amazing economy. For most people it's really still kind of sucky. If only they'd wake up and realize why, but here we are talking about the GOP that stymied the economy since 2010 taking the Senate. It's bad comedy.
 

stonesak

Okay, if you really insist
Right, I don't think we actually disagree with one another. The GOP's great political accomplishment is getting people to vote against their own interests. In fact they actively fight against their own interests. We agree on the diagnoses, but I disagreed with the assessment that people are ungrateful for this amazing economy. For most people it's really still kind of sucky. If only they'd wake up and realize why, but here we are talking about the GOP that stymied the economy since 2010 taking the Senate. It's bad comedy.

If Democrats simply came out in the same number as they did for the presidential election Democrats would walk away with the Senate. Just how are Republicans responsible for the apathy of Democrats?
 
Sadly I think it falls under "FREEDOMS". I think US courts traditionally are very apprehensive on stopping things that are in the grey zone between offensive versus free speech
I'm not awake enough yet this morning to do the research, but I seem to recall a case where deceptive design of a mailer overrode the free speech argument. I think it involved the use of a seal that imitated a state's official seal (maybe WY or MT?) The design of the KY GOP mailer looks to me to cross the deceptive line, but IANAL.

I voted for the first time today!

Too bad it's in dumb shit Texas where my vote mean nothing. :(
Congratulations on voting!

Tell me, what mythical state would you have to live in for your vote to mean anything as you've framed it? I hate to tell you, but your vote, individually, will never mean anything. Voting out of a sense of efficacy will always lead you to choose to not vote. That's an empty reason to vote that will lead you to cynicism and eventually, to not voting. You vote because, in aggregate, it determines the direction of government. Vote, not out of a sense of efficacy, but out of a sense of civic duty. Your vote means everything because you've exercised your right to do it.
 
I am quite disappointed how forgetful and ungrateful people are.

FFS, the stock market is at record highs, gas prices are CHEAP, unemployment is low, interest rates are still low, GDP growth is high, inflation is controlled, the deficit is at one of the lowest rates compared to GDP in the last 40 years . . . and yet people still whine?


I guess we have to get into some wars and crash the financial system again because people forgot already. Idiots.
What does any of that have to do with being grateful? The economy isn't good. People aren't finding work and have given up, most people say they're worse off now, most people dislike Obamacare, etc. Throwing out GDP numbers isn't going to change anything.

People have simply tuned the president out, and when thy tune on the news it's nonstop negative news. It's not Obama's fault that the world blew up but lord knows he didn't respond well in the eyes of most people.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I am so happy that Brownback will be sent packing along with Roberts on Tuesday. Scott will be toast and Walker will flee into the sunset.
 

RedSwirl

Junior Member
"These policies may screw me over 9 times out of 10 right now. But, dammit, I may get rich someday, and I want these policies to be there when I hit it big!"

My current theory is, a lot of people, maybe even a majority of Americans, know of the problems with our economy, but kind of just accept it as how things are. Things like a top-heavy economy or the condition of public schools are seen as kind of just facts of life.
 

Muzy72

Banned
I'm not awake enough yet this morning to do the research, but I seem to recall a case where deceptive design of a mailer overrode the free speech argument. I think it involved the use of a seal that imitated a state's official seal (maybe WY or MT?) The design of the KY GOP mailer looks to me to cross the deceptive line, but IANAL.


Congratulations on voting!

Tell me, what mythical state would you have to live in for your vote to mean anything as you've framed it? I hate to tell you, but your vote, individually, will never mean anything. Voting out of a sense of efficacy will always lead you to choose to not vote. That's an empty reason to vote that will lead you to cynicism and eventually, to not voting. You vote because, in aggregate, it determines the direction of government. Vote, not out of a sense of efficacy, but out of a sense of civic duty. Your vote means everything because you've exercised your right to do it.

Oh no, I definitely understand that. But it'd be nice if my vote wasn't essentially being thrown away since everyone else in Texas will be voting against what I voted for, haha. Basically, I'm just being a sore loser, since I'm not voting for the winner.
 

Retro

Member
Texas going blue has been discussed quite a bit in this thread, and not as some crazy long shot but a real possibly in the future. Not this election, or the next one, or even one years down the road. But someday, and you voting against a seemingly endless tide of red makes that future one vote closer to reality.
 
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