I'm kind of feeling the 48 D - 52 R at this point.
Udall seems to be in a tougher place than Bennett was, and Bennett barely won in the first place, making me not feel so good about relying on the polling bias. I'm not really liking the early voting numbers here.
Iowa doesn't seem to have near as much of a history of bad polling, outside of 2012 presidential race, making me wonder if there's enough to count on there being any polling bias at all. I also don't trust the good turnout numbers over 2010 because 2010 was so bad, anything would be an improvement there.
Hagan and Shaheen win. Both their polls aren't exactly showing them that much stronger than Ersnt or Gardner which we all agree are still vulnerable to losing, but early voting seems to be confirming their leads.
That's 47-50 on election night.
LA goes to Cassidy as we all expect on Dec 8th, completely sealing the senate for Republicans.
Orman wins but caucuses with republicans to join with the majority party. Though he'll still swing on a lot of issues that Roberts wouldn't have, and will thus still be a victory in my eyes. He still might caucus with Democrats if Republicans feel they don't need him and don't want him, but McConnell will probably keep that from happening.
Nunn barely misses 50% in less than 40,000 votes, bringing the lost voter registrations into play big time. Combine that with Republican laziness of already having the senate, and Nunn wins January 6th runoff easy.
I do still wonder if Angus King will do what he says and caucus with republicans if they win, making it 47 D - 53 R, but no one else seems to care about it or believe it.