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[gcubed]

I'm surprised Aaron Strife didn't post this

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/upshot/why-polls-tend-to-undercount-democrats.html


its a really long article so i'll only cut the beginning piece out

Polls show that the Republicans have an advantage in the fight for control of the Senate. They lead in enough states to win control, and they have additional opportunities in North Carolina and New Hampshire to make up for potential upsets. As Election Day nears, Democratic hopes increasingly hinge on the possibility that the polls will simply prove wrong.

But that possibility is not far-fetched. The polls have generally underestimated Democrats in recent years, and there are reasons to think it could happen again.

In 2010, the polls underestimated the Democrats in every competitive Senate race by an average of 3.1 percentage points, based on data from The Huffington Post’s Pollster model. In 2012, pre-election polls underestimated President Obama in nine of the 10 battleground states by an average of 2 percentage points.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

2012 really undermined my confidence in polling. How Gallup had Mitt Romney winning by like 5 points I will never understand.

 

[Black Mamba]

All of the polls are forecasting a runoff election in Louisiana next month between incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy.

But former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin sees it differently.

In a statement to RealClearPolitics, the 2008 vice presidential nominee predicted that her preferred candidate in the race -- long-shot GOP contender Rob Maness -- will pull off a major surprise on Election Day.

“Like a gator in the swamp, Col. Rob Maness may have been seen as sharply lurking, but is now ready to pounce,” Palin said in the statement. “It is time. This is the election that will be the shocker on Tuesday.”

Welp, pack it up. Manes got this.

 

[benjipwns]

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...orados-senate-race-lead-to-a-condom-shortage/

It’s getting personal in the final days of Colorado’s Senate race.

Naral Pro-Choice America is out with a $450,000 ad campaign that some might say is hitting below the belt.

The group is targeting Representative Cory Gardner’s position on birth control pills, calling the Republican an “anti-birth control extremist” and claiming that if he defeats Senator Mark Udall, a Democrat, it would cause a run on condoms as other methods of contraception become more expensive.

“If Cory Gardner gets his way, you better stock up on condoms,” the narrator says, as a man in bed fumbles through condom wrappers in his dresser.

The ad was inspired by Mr. Gardner’s previous support for a “personhood amendment,” which would treat embryos as people and ban certain forms of contraception.

Mr. Gardner later reversed his position on the amendment and has been arguing that birth control pills should be available over the counter at drugstores.

Karen Middleton, executive director of Naral Pro-Choice Colorado, said that Mr. Gardner’s position would make birth control more expensive for women.

A spokesman for Mr. Gardner did not immediately respond to a request for a comment about the ad.

Church & Dwight, one of the world’s biggest condom makers, did not respond to questions about the impact that Mr. Gardner might have on its inventory if he is elected.

Ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeLTovp5E44
Similar but different radio version: http://www.prochoiceamerica.org/elections/2014/GMMB_25914_NARAL_CO_ThisGuy.mp3

He has returned home to report failure in his mission to purchase condoms. “How did this happen?” she asks.

He replies: “Cory Gardner banned birth control, and now it’s all on us guys. And you can’t find a condom anywhere. And the pill was just the start. The Pell grants my little brother was counting on for college? Cory cut them! Climate change that everyone knows is weirding our weather—Cory flat-out denies it! Sweet pea, Cory denies science!”

Sales of Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s memoir fell by more than 43 percent to 535 copies in its second week on shelves.

Mr. Cuomo’s latest book, “All Things Possible: Setbacks and Success in Politics and Life,” sold 945 copies in the week after its Oct. 15 release, according to BookScan, a subscription service that tracks sales at over 80 percent of book vendors in the United States but does not include e-books, which can increase sales by about 15 percent.

At a news conference on Monday, Mr. Cuomo joked that health care workers returning from treating Ebola patients in West Africa could pass the time in a 21-day quarantine by reading his book. “Twenty-one days, in your home, with your friends and your family, and you’ll be compensated,” he said. “Read a book, read my book.”

The 528-page memoir, which chronicles Mr. Cuomo’s rise in politics in New York, has received tepid reviews. The book, for which Mr. Cuomo received an advance of more than $700,000, comes as he seeks re-election

 

[speculawyer]

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...orados-senate-race-lead-to-a-condom-shortage/

Ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeLTovp5E44

Cuomo the lesser is a douche.

 

[benjipwns]

How do you write a 500 page book about how you have the same last name as your dad?

 

[Mike M]

How do you write a 500 page book about how you have the same last name as your dad?

Large margins, font size, line spacing, and some coloring and activity book pages.

 

[Wilsongt]

The Five are idiots. Wow

Harry Reid as bad as the tea party. Young voters moving towards the GOP. Lol

 

[Joe Molotov]

How do you write a 500 page book about how you have the same last name as your dad?

You're not even a little interested in his brave Riches-to-Riches story and how hard he's had to struggle to keep the silver spoon in his mouth?

 

[rocketknight]

Taibbi has left First Look Media.

 

[Tamanon]

It's not easy being Cuomo. Think how hard it is to go through life knowing that failure won't hurt you at all. The sheer strength of will he had to have to do anything knowing that he didn't have to.

Such a strong man, the very definition of bootstraps.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

Going to vote next week...not sure why, Wendy Davis has zero chance of winning. Really hate living in Texas at times. So how bad are the next two years gonna be nationally when Republicans gain the Senate?

 

[thepotatoman]

lol? just because I said it?

ftr I believe Democrats have a very real chance at winning IA, LA, GA, AK on election night. that prediction gives IA/AK to Republicans while assuming LA/GA go to run-offs. if anything I view the 48-49-Orman-2 runoffs as sort of a worst case scenario because I can't see Democrats losing much more than that.

Finally a non-partisan Colorado poll that makes me not want to strangle something

Of course SurveyUSA has to counter with a Gardner +2 poll. Oh well, could be worse.

I do like how they basically preface the whole thing with a "hell, we don't know whats going on in colorado, no one knows what's going on in Colorado, but this is our best guess."

 

[Aaron Strife]

If SUSA only has Gardner up by 2 then that's probably ok. They had Buck leading by 5 around this time in 2010, who of course lost.

 

[WayneMorse]

I'm just praying that the polls are oversampling Republicans, as far fetched as that sounds.

 

[thepotatoman]

If SUSA only has Gardner up by 2 then that's probably ok. They had Buck leading by 5 around this time in 2010, who of course lost.

This is the closest to election poll they had in 2010. They had it at a tie, while noting that Bennett was winning among respondents that already voted. Here they noted Gardner up 3 among those who already voted, which is troubling to me.

Both polls have the democrat only up 3 among hispanics.

I don't know how much reliable info you can get comparing two polls like this, but it certainly isn't very favorable to democrats if you do.

 

[thepotatoman]

I'm just praying that the polls are oversampling Republicans, as far fetched as that sounds.

Hey, at least a lot of these races are basically within the margin of error. The polls can be completely unbiased and dems would could still win on the simple roll of the dice of statistical error, represented by the 30%-40% shot multiple aggregators are giving the democrats.

Don't be too pulled in by the narrative that the Dems one and only shot is the polls being fundamentally wrong.

 

[Oblivion]

So GDP had 3.5% growth in the third quarter.

High GDP growth, low unemployment, and yet the Dems are still gonna lose the senate. America, ladies and gentlemen.

:cryingeagle

 

[NeoXChaos]

So GDP had 3.5% growth in the third quarter.

High GDP growth, low unemployment, and yet the Dems are still gonna lose the senate. America, ladies and gentlemen.

:cryingeagle

Look at the bright side. Hillary will sweep while the clowns reap

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

Look at the bright side. Hillary will sweep while the clowns reap

Sweet four, maybe eight more years of do nothing Congress...thats progress America.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Sweet four, maybe eight more years of do nothing Congress...thats progress America.

This was guaranteed the day after the 2010 elections, when the GOP won their way into gerrymandering the House for the GOP for the next decade. Nothing is going to change it until the 2020 election.

 

[NeoXChaos]

This was guaranteed the day after the 2010 elections, when the GOP won their way into gerrymandering the House for the GOP for the next decade. Nothing is going to change it until the 2020 election.

^^
Under the radar fact that for the last 18 of the 22 years since 94, R's will have control by 2017

So its likely that if Hillary cant sweep in 2016 & 2018 with a final blow in 2020. We might have to get used to a R house for a couple of decades.

D's had the house for 40 years. 54-94. We could be headed that way but dont be discouraged. Anything can happen.

Something is going to have to break. None of us live long enough for a repeat of the last 6 years of R house rule. It make my stomach sick. Im sure none of us want to see that. Lets hope the hate for Hilary if it comes to pass isnt like the hate for Obama.

But if America keeps electing clowns "no offense to joni ernst", Hillary might not get that far since at that point in 2017, the people she served with in the senate will be 1/2 to 2/3rds gone.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Christie: "Sit down and shut up"

Your self imploding in more ways than I could every want me boy. Absolutely beautiful yet again. I am loving this guy more each day it seems.

 

[Chris R]

So proud of my little state. Finally reaching the big leagues with attempted voter suppression.

http://www.ktuu.com/news/news/alaskans-incensed-by-letters-publishing-their-voting-records/29343796

So much out of state money pouring in for almost EVERY statewide race now, even the Governor. Hell, even Mittens and Rafael Cruz are coming up to stump for Sullivan's senate attempt.

 

[Oblivion]

Guys, it seems the Democrat Party's worst fear may actually be realized: the Mama Grizzly might actually run for president:

Fox Business host Stuart Varney] asked if the "disgraceful" "hatred level" directed at Palin over the years had "driven her out of politics for good."

"No, bless their hearts. Those haters out there, they don't understand that it invigorates me, it wants me to get out there and defend the innocent. It makes me want to work so hard for justice in this country. So hey, the more they're pouring on, the more I'm gonna bug the crap out them by being out there, with a voice, with a message, hopefully running for office again in the future too."

 

[VanMardigan]

This thread is now Unskewed Polls: Liberal Edition

 

[NYCmetsfan]

So GDP had 3.5% growth in the third quarter.

High GDP growth, low unemployment, and yet the Dems are still gonna lose the senate. America, ladies and gentlemen.

:cryingeagle

If Romney were president would you use this to show how we should keep him or how he's an amazing president?

 

[thepotatoman]

edit: nevermind

 

[RustyNails]

Christie: "Sit down and shut up"

Your self imploding in more ways than I could every want me boy. Absolutely beautiful yet again. I am loving this guy more each day it seems.

How is this blowhard going to withstand the national media scrutiny when he runs for President? He is going to crash and burn faster than a blindfolded Tim Pawlenty in a clownmobile.

 

[Oblivion]

Regarding that catcalling video that was posted the other day:

And let’s be honest. What makes these catcalls offensive isn’t that they come from men. It’s that they come from low-status men. Like an unconsented kiss from President Obama, if the catcalls came from George Clooney there’d be much less female outrage.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

How is this blowhard going to withstand the national media scrutiny when he runs for President? He is going to crash and burn faster than a blindfolded Tim Pawlenty in a clownmobile.

No worry, Chris Christie has zero chance of getting past the primaries. Which is really a damned shame, I would love to see him in a general election.

 

[Oblivion]

If Romney were president would you use this to show how we should keep him or how he's an amazing president?

The point being that the conventional wisdom that people vote based on how the economy is doing clearly doesn't apply in this case.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

It's that time of year you just sit in the office listening to voicemails about how offensive it is that you ask demographic questions

#Merica

 

[PhoenixDark]

Can you imagine how ugly Christie would look against Hillary? He'd be such a perfect candidate in the 80s or early 90s when laughing at liberals was in vogue, but now he just looks like a fucking bully. And him and his staff seem to think it's endearing. The tough guy thing works to a degree but he crossed the line long ago, and apparently no one has told him to dial it down.

Good luck dealing with hostile conservative crowds in South Carolina bro.

 

[Chichikov]

Taibbi has left First Look Media.

That's a shame, I love Taibbi, I hope he find a good home.

Regarding that catcalling video that was posted the other day:

Just so we're clear, this a "point and laugh at the idiot" post, not "he has an interesting point", right?

 

[Oblivion]

Just so we're clear, this a "point and laugh at the idiot" post, not "he has an interesting point", right?

Come on now.

Spoiler

Yes, I'm leaving the post as ambiguous as that to add to the MYSTERY!

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

Can you imagine how ugly Christie would look against Hillary? He'd be such a perfect candidate in the 80s or early 90s when laughing at liberals was in vogue, but now he just looks like a fucking bully. And him and his staff seem to think it's endearing. The tough guy thing works to a degree but he crossed the line long ago, and apparently no one has told him to dial it down.

Good luck dealing with hostile conservative crowds in South Carolina bro.

So true, honestly I used to 'like' Christie this was before all the bridgegate stuff though. Mainly because he came across as a straight-shooter, this is the way it is kind of candidate. Someone that would be honest even if you didn't like the answer. Of course, that has changed and it just comes across as being an asshole bully now.

 

[RustyNails]

Can you imagine how ugly Christie would look against Hillary? He'd be such a perfect candidate in the 80s or early 90s when laughing at liberals was in vogue, but now he just looks like a fucking bully. And him and his staff seem to think it's endearing. The tough guy thing works to a degree but he crossed the line long ago, and apparently no one has told him to dial it down.

Good luck dealing with hostile conservative crowds in South Carolina bro.

Problem is the beltway media treats it like its his thing. He's "brash" they say. He's "not afraid" they say.

 

[Tamanon]

Media will be lusting to compare Christie from ol' calm and professorial Obama.

"It's refreshing to see emotion" and all that nonsense.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

Problem is the beltway media treats it like its his thing. He's "brash" they say. He's "not afraid" they say.

You really find that true now, post bridgegate and all that? I really don't, it seems the narrative has really shifted to he is a bully.

 

[RustyNails]

You really find that true now, post bridgegate and all that? I really don't, it seems the narrative has really shifted to he is a bully.

I personally don't. I think he's just a new jersey asshole and always has been. Media loves their politicians with personality though, that's why he's still a darling.

 

[Diablos]

Media will be lusting to compare Christie from ol' calm and professorial Obama.

"It's refreshing to see emotion" and all that nonsense.

lol @ Gloria Berger on Christie's re-election night.
"now Christie can say, 'LOOK AT WHAT I CAN DO!!!!'"

 

[Squirrel Killer]

So proud of my little state. Finally reaching the big leagues with attempted voter suppression.

http://www.ktuu.com/news/news/alaskans-incensed-by-letters-publishing-their-voting-records/29343796

I got a very similar one in Iowa. Judging from the research I did in the group that sent it and knowing my household, I doubt it's meant as voter suppression but rather I think it's a severely misguided attempt to GOTV via name and shame.

 

[Bel Marduk]

2012 really undermined my confidence in polling. How Gallup had Mitt Romney winning by like 5 points I will never understand.

I certainly haven't heard much at all from Gallup this year..

 

[speculawyer]

I got a very similar one in Iowa. Judging from the research I did in the group that sent it and knowing my household, I doubt it's meant as voter suppression but rather I think it's a severely misguided attempt to GOTV via name and shame.

I'm starting to think these voter suppression efforts may do more harm to the GOP than good. They may shave out a few voters but as long as these efforts are constantly discussed in the news, they will piss off the targets of the efforts which will energize them to go to the polls and vote against the GOP. But this does require keeping the suppression efforts discussed in the news.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

I'm starting to think these voter suppression efforts may do more harm to the GOP than good. They may shave out a few voters but as long as these efforts are constantly discussed in the news, they will piss off the targets of the efforts which will energize them to go to the polls and vote against the GOP. But this does require keeping the suppression efforts discussed in the news.

To be clear, my research revealed the organization to be R-aligned, and nothing in my household's voting record would indicate anything other than two loyal, straight party ticket Rs lived here. If the intent was voter suppression*, it meant that some conservative sat around and thought to himself, "You know what would help the Rs out in this election? If we sent out a mailer to depress the GOP turnout."

 

[ivysaur12]

This one would make me lol:

http://fox13now.com/2014/10/30/new-poll-shows-doug-owens-closing-in-on-mia-love-in-4th-congressional-district-race/

SALT LAKE CITY – The latest Utah Policy poll shows the race for the 4th Congressional District is tightening between Mia Love and Doug Owens.

According to UtahPolicy.com, Mia Love has 48 percent with Doug Owens at 43 percent just days before the election.

The poll, conducted by Dan Jones and Associates, shows 6 percent of voters are still undecided which means this election could easily go either way.

UtahPolicy.com said its poll two weeks ago found Love leading Owens 49 percent to 40 percent.

Two week ago independents favored Owens 50 percent to 33 percent.

Now Owens leads with the independents 57 percent to 29 percent.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Well Ras came out with a poll of Iowa that had Ernst only up 1, according to Nate they've had a 3 pt R bias so that's like a Braley lead!

Alt. lol Ras

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

So GDP had 3.5% growth in the third quarter.

High GDP growth, low unemployment, and yet the Dems are still gonna lose the senate. America, ladies and gentlemen.

:cryingeagle

Even the most popular presidents have difficulty holding anything in 6th year midterms that's no surprise. Guess whose party lost 8 Senate seats in his 6th year?

 

[benjipwns]

Even the most popular presidents have difficulty holding anything in 6th year midterms that's no surprise. Guess whose party lost 8 Senate seats in his 6th year?

Obama's?