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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World

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2018 is bad but if we can get a 55-majority we should hold the senate or be able to fillibuster.

The thing i fear is those seats that we're defending aren't really facing the demographic changes. North Dakota and Montana mostly. But I don't know how likely they are to toss out incumbents.
 
Arizona would be a potential pickup opportunity in 2018 as well. Flake only won in 2012 by 3 points. Sure it was an open seat, but the state will only get bluer and Democrats will probably take it more seriously then. In fact the same could be said for 2016 when McCain's seat is up. Either he leaves behind an open seat or his shit approval ratings make him a target a la McConnell (but in much more favorable territory than Kentucky).

Just for the sake of tempering expectations I'm going to say Ds end up with 48 seats on election night, Rs with 49, Orman playing rope-a-dope about who he'll caucus with and it'll come down to two run-offs for all the marbles. That's my superduper final prediction before election night.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
2018 is bad but if we can get a 55-majority we should hold the senate or be able to fillibuster.

The thing i fear is those seats that we're defending aren't really facing the demographic changes. North Dakota and Montana mostly. But I don't know how likely they are to toss out incumbents.

MN & ND definitely not. WV will be gone if Manchin goes. IN & MO are going to be in danger. FL if Nelson goes is going to be a free for all with a likely Crist re-elect or open seat (we will see Tuesday)

Even having 55 wont be enough because like this year, the R's have plenty of races to target and break their way if the environment is crap. The purple and light blue like PA, OH, MI, MN etc are not solid enough to stay D even in bad years like Oregon is. Fascinating considering PA has voted 6 straight elections D.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Arizona would be a potential pickup opportunity in 2018 as well. Flake only won in 2012 by 3 points. Sure it was an open seat, but the state will only get bluer and Democrats will probably take it more seriously then. In fact the same could be said for 2016 when McCain's seat is up. Either he leaves behind an open seat or his shit approval ratings make him a target a la McConnell (but in much more favorable territory than Kentucky).

Just for the sake of tempering expectations I'm going to say Ds end up with 48 seats on election night, Rs with 49, Orman playing rope-a-dope about who he'll caucus with and it'll come down to two run-offs for all the marbles. That's my superduper final prediction before election night.

McCain is vulnerable but what credible D is going to challenge him? Not so much with Grassly but will D's try to take him down? Will he get tea partied?

We know the D's top targets will be in Obama states like Ayotte, Johnson, Kirk, & Toomey.

Every other race, depends on retirement and defeating incumbents with GOOD candidates.

See: Burr, Rubio?, Paul?, Issackson?, Blunt? Holding Reid and Bennett
 
Wondering how much of an impact Obama's race has on his standing in states like ND, MT, MO, IN which will have vulnerable Dem senators up for re-election in 2018. Maybe not much since he almost won MT and MO in 08 and won IN but didn't compete there in 2012, but perhaps it'll be easier for certain states to elect Democrats with Hillary in the White House instead.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Wondering how much of an impact Obama's race has on his standing in states like ND, MT, MO, IN which will have vulnerable Dem senators up for re-election in 2018. Maybe not much since he almost won MT and MO in 08 and won IN but didn't compete there in 2012, but perhaps it'll be easier for certain states to elect Democrats with Hillary in the White House instead.

Well if 2018 is a localized election. They all have good shots to win but if it is nationalized in a 2010 or 2014 environment. Say goodbye.

A shame but Congress needs more moderates from all states especially those ones willing to buck state tradition and elect someone form the opposite party from the presidential result like ND.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Without even knowing who the president is or the outlook of the economy, it's not really that worthwhile to look at 2018.

Should we be discussing how a second term Hilary will help or hurt Kay Hagan's chances in 2020?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Without even knowing who the president is or the outlook of the economy, it's not really that worthwhile to look at 2018.

Should we be discussing how a second term Hilary will help or hurt Kay Hagan's chances in 2020?

It would be bad news for Kay Hagan, I thought we knew that was the standard already? Even good news for Kay Hagan is really just bad news for Kay Hagan.
 
Just for the record, there's no chance in hell McConnell will get rid of the filibuster. The changes to confirmation votes will most likely be rolled back of course, but the old guys in the GOP caucus will oppose a full repeal of the filibuster just like the old guys in the Dems did.

What will most likely happen are things like Keystone XL and TPP fast track where McConnell can get a few moderate Dems to go along passing the Senate and going to Obama's desk.

Keystone will get vetoed obviously but TPP is Obama's pet and it'll get signed. TPP will easily be the most destructive aspect of the Obama legacy.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Without even knowing who the president is or the outlook of the economy, it's not really that worthwhile to look at 2018.

Should we be discussing how a second term Hilary will help or hurt Kay Hagan's chances in 2020?

2018 is worth being discussed because this 2014 election will directly influence that, similar to how the 2010 election is having a huge influence on this 2014 election.

Though it might be a bit easier to determine that after we find out exactly where this election goes.
Just for the record, there's no chance in hell McConnell will get rid of the filibuster. The changes to confirmation votes will most likely be rolled back of course, but the old guys in the GOP caucus will oppose a full repeal of the filibuster just like the old guys in the Dems did.

What will most likely happen are things like Keystone XL and TPP fast track where McConnell can get a few moderate Dems to go along passing the Senate and going to Obama's desk.

Keystone will get vetoed obviously but TPP is Obama's pet and it'll get signed. TPP will easily be the most destructive aspect of the Obama legacy.

Indeed, the TPP is the scariest thing about this, beyond the loss of confirming nominees and loss of power in budget negotiations.

Chained CPI for social security might actually happen too, but I'm not 100% sure on that one.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Larry Sabato moved CO to leans Republican.

Polling in Colorado misfired in both 2010 and 2012, underestimating the Democratic vote in both years, and Democrats are banking on a similar mishap. They’re also counting on the state’s new all-mail balloting to boost Democratic turnout, delivering an upset victory for Sen. Mark Udall (D), who trails in nearly all independent polling to Rep. Cory Gardner (R). That is possible, but there is also reason to be skeptical. For one thing, Gardner is unquestionably a superior candidate to Ken Buck, the Republican who fumbled the 2010 race against Sen. Michael Bennet (D). And some pollsters have no doubt learned from their past mistakes. Gardner’s lead in polling averages is around three points, right around where we’d expect him to be to have a good shot of winning. So we’re calling Colorado Leans Republican, now, too, to go along with Alaska and Iowa.


X(.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
What is gonna happen till then?

exactly. Clown car for 2 years. Hillary sweep and 2018? seems likely if things continue the way they are.

Although as Larry mentioned, D's are gonna have to find some way for obama to leave on a high note of 50+ approval rating or Hillary will have problems.

If his approval rating continues to stagnate or sinks even lower, his standing will once again imperil Democrats, just as it did in 2010 and 2014. Democrats in and out of Congress will need to find ways to help Obama leave office on a high note, because their fortunes—and that of the Democratic nominee picked to succeed him—will still be linked to his.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...nate-majority-112329_Page2.html#ixzz3Hao3Fz00
 

HylianTom

Banned
exactly. Clown car for 2 years. Hillary sweep and 2018? seems likely if things continue the way they are.

Although as Larry mentioned, D's are gonna have to find some way for obama to leave on a high note of 50+ approval rating or Hillary will have problems.

If his approval rating continues to stagnate or sinks even lower, his standing will once again imperil Democrats, just as it did in 2010 and 2014. Democrats in and out of Congress will need to find ways to help Obama leave office on a high note, because their fortunes—and that of the Democratic nominee picked to succeed him—will still be linked to his.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...nate-majority-112329_Page2.html#ixzz3Hao3Fz00

The Clinton team's challenge will be to somehow say that they are the "proven-successful" (see: 1990s) alternative to Obama's way and to the Republicans' way - without offending Obama fans and by providing enough differentiation for winnable moderate voters who aren't quite happy with how Obama's term has unfolded.

They'd be offering a, errr.. hmm.. a third way! {*pause for laughs from older folks in crowd*}

They can point to improved ecnomic data over the past few years and claim that we are indeed on the right path, but that it needs Clinton-style adjustments to make the economy go from "second gear" to "fifth gear" so that folks on Main Street can really feel the effects (there's the old chestnut about the GOP being the reverse gear that'll work well in this context).

If the GOP nominee is Bush or if he advocates George W-style policies ("solve everything with TAX CUTS!"), then they should have no problem reminding voters that those policies are what got us into this mess in the first place. Bill is especially effective at nailing the hell out of them on this kind of message (note: his State of the Union addresses were in-friggin'-credible. If they're online and you haven't seen them, you're in for a treat).

They'll essentially be selling themselves as the porridge that's just right. Americans ate it up and loved it two decades ago, and it can work again. This message should be good enough to at least get a first term for Hillary. If things go downhill through 2020, a different message would be needed, but she'd have incumbent advantage at that point.

Aside:
I keep saying "they" because Bill and Hillary's team is going to end-up selling this as a co-presidency without explicitly saying so. They'll hint, they'll joke, they'll have fun with dancing around it.. and the GOP opposition will have to figure-out how to counter this sales technique without much historical precedent to draw-upon. We're going to see them stumble around on how to handle this unique situation.
 

Diablos

Member
That's what I've been trying to say all along. People act like Hillary can just cruise into the White House with zero effort, even if Obama is extremely unpopular by then. That is absurd. If Obama's approval hovers where he is now, that hurts Democrats, and ultimately Hillary. They are all Dems, and Hillary will have to defend what she believes in when people will associate it with Barack Obama, which isn't good for her or the party unless he finds a way to become popular.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
exactly. Clown car for 2 years. Hillary sweep and 2018? seems likely if things continue the way they are.

Although as Larry mentioned, D's are gonna have to find some way for obama to leave on a high note of 50+ approval rating or Hillary will have problems.

If his approval rating continues to stagnate or sinks even lower, his standing will once again imperil Democrats, just as it did in 2010 and 2014. Democrats in and out of Congress will need to find ways to help Obama leave office on a high note, because their fortunes—and that of the Democratic nominee picked to succeed him—will still be linked to his.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...nate-majority-112329_Page2.html#ixzz3Hao3Fz00

Does it matter if the poor approval comes completely from the other side?

iUw59aE.png
 

Diablos

Member
Just for the sake of tempering expectations I'm going to say Ds end up with 48 seats on election night, Rs with 49, Orman playing rope-a-dope about who he'll caucus with and it'll come down to two run-offs for all the marbles. That's my superduper final prediction before election night.
Dialing it back I see.

Yeah, when this is our best case scenario it's time to start facing the music.

I really hope the GOP doesn't shut down the Government contingent on it repoening only with Obamacare repealed/gutted.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Dialing it back I see.

Yeah, when this is our best case scenario it's time to start facing the music.

I really hope the GOP doesn't shut down the Government contingent on it repoening only with Obamacare repealed/gutted.
Eh.. it wouldn't even get past the Senate, let alone to Obama's desk. That's the kind of GOP overreach scenario that will make Dems salivate.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
So here's something fun.

David Kopel said:
How well do you know Watergate? This 100-question quiz from the summer of 1974 will provide the answer. If you were a newspaper reader when Watergate took place, the quiz will bring back lots of memories. If you don’t remember Watergate, then the quiz will inform you about the details of one of the most criminal and scurrilous presidential administrations in American history.

The quiz was distributed at the 1974 Colorado Democratic Assembly by the Dick Lamm for Governor campaign. It was titled “Watergate quiz (and assembly time-killer).” It was written by Democratic State Representative Dick Lamm (who was on his way to winning the first of three gubernatorial terms) and his campaign staff. At the time the quiz was distributed, the House Judiciary Committee had not yet begun the hearings which would lead to the Committee favorably reporting three articles of impeachment against Richard Milhous Nixon. Nor had the Supreme Court yet ruled in United State v. Nixon; the 8-0 decision of the Court would lead to the release of the “smoking gun” White House tape, which proved beyond any doubt that Nixon himself had orchestrated the Watergate cover-up right from the start.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Well, the Senate was fun while it lasted. But hey, we kept it for 6 years, so that's something, at least. Right?


On the plus side, McConnell will reinstate the filibuster.

lol
 
Dialing it back I see.

Yeah, when this is our best case scenario it's time to start facing the music.

I really hope the GOP doesn't shut down the Government contingent on it repoening only with Obamacare repealed/gutted.
When did I ever say that was our best case scenario
 
So...the fed ended its bond buying program in place for 6-years to help stabilize the economy.
The Federal Reserve announced the end of its bond-buying program Wednesday, marking the close of a six-year effort to stimulate the economy.

The decision reflects how much the economy has improved since the recession. It's akin to taking the training wheels off of a child's bike.

The Fed's announcement was overall positive, says Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at market research firm BTIG in New York.

"It's in response to the Fed acknowledging the improvement in the economy, the improvement in the labor market and the diminished risks on the inflation side of things," says Greenhaus.

The 12 members of the central bank's committee also voted to keep its key interest rate near zero. This means people with savings in the bank get little to no interest, but the low interest rates spur people and businesses to spend and invest.

The economy has come a long way in six years. The unemployment rate is now 5.9%, its lowest mark since QE began. There are over 8.5 million more people employed now than in November 2008, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In the announcement Wednesday, the Fed said the job market is improving.

"On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing," the statement read.

Current Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has often cited her concerns this year about the sluggish job market, but it appears the Fed's views have shifted somewhat.

The Fed also wants inflation to stay consistently above 2%, which it has not since the Fed lowered interest rates.

The total number of housing starts, an important measure of the health of the real estate market, has almost doubled since its low point shortly after QE began, according to the Census Bureau.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
In which Andrew Cuomo continues to be a douchebag to every Democratic constituency that aren't gay people.

www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer...ic-school-system-a-monopoly-he-wants-to-bust/

It's like he's daring us not to vote for him. If his opponent wasn't a nutter...

Well at least he's going to be raising the minimum wage to $10.10 next year...

Swear to god, he just wants another landslide so he's going for the GOP moderates...

Why can't I have a decent choice in this race?
 
It's like he's daring us not to vote for him. If his opponent wasn't a nutter...

Well at least he's going to be raising the minimum wage to $10.10 next year...

Swear to god, he just wants another landslide so he's going for the GOP moderates...

Why can't I have a decent choice in this race?

Cuomo's going to win, so vote for the Green Party candidate.
 
I can't believe I have to pull so hard for Doug Owens (who is the fakest Democrat ever) against a black woman in Utah.

Mia Love's crazy is tearing me apart. I hate Owens, I want more women of color in Congress, but then Mia Love's policies and ideas...
 

Diablos

Member
Looks like the GOP is poised to make even more gains in state legislatures nationwide:

The Republican landslide in 2010 and the subsequent redistricting process in 2012 gave the GOP control of a nearly unprecedented number of legislative chambers. Today, the party controls 59 of the 98 partisan chambers in 49 states, while Democrats control only 39 chambers (One legislature, Nebraska’s is officially nonpartisan).

Once election results are tabulated in the 6,049 legislative races on the ballot in 46 states this year, Republicans could find themselves running even more.

If Iowa Democrats can’t hang on to control of the state Senate, Gov. Terry Branstad (R) will be freer to pursue an ambitious agenda. If Arkansas Republicans keep control of the state House and win the governor’s mansion, the future of that state’s unique approach to Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act is at risk. In Kentucky, Sen. Rand Paul (R) could take advantage of a Republican state legislature to change a law that prevents him from running for president and re-election to the U.S. Senate at the same time.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...number-of-legislatures-into-republican-hands/

I do worry about soon to be Governor Wolf here in PA and how he's going to do anything with a GOP legislature. I hope he can at least manage to tax all the Marcellus Shale assholes and their friends. We're the only state in the country that currently does not tax them...

PA had a single payer healthcare system movement, and even a bill in the state House (and Senate) but it was contingent on having a progressive legislature, something they were hoping to obtain but obviously completely backfired on them in 2010.

Cuomo sucks. I can't believe New York has such a soft Democrat in charge.

When did I ever say that was our best case scenario
When you said it was your superduper final prediction? :p
 
Prognosticating 2018 and later elections? I'm sorry but this is stupid lol. I seem to remember a lot of rosy assumptions about Obama's second term, circa November 2012. The future isn't certain. And with banks propping up junk mortgages again plus student loan debt I wouldn't want to be the party in control over the next 4-5 years, unless I had the means to change things. Barring some historical election I doubt Hillary will get that advantage.
 

FreezeSSC

Member

Now if only they'll retake steps to improve housing, if McConnell takes back the senate he might try to push the johnson-crapo bill which passed the senate finance committee with strong R support, effectively wiping out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and destroying the 30 year mortgage as we know it. I don't know how Obama is allowing such a perilous risk to continue, if that passes good bye lower/middle class.
 
Looks like the GOP is poised to make even more gains in state legislatures nationwide:


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...number-of-legislatures-into-republican-hands/

I do worry about soon to be Governor Wolf here in PA and how he's going to do anything with a GOP legislature. I hope he can at least manage to tax all the Marcellus Shale assholes and their friends. We're the only state in the country that currently does not tax them...

PA had a single payer healthcare system movement, and even a bill in the state House (and Senate) but it was contingent on having a progressive legislature, something they were hoping to obtain but obviously completely backfired on them in 2010.

Cuomo sucks. I can't believe New York has such a soft Democrat in charge.


When you said it was your superduper final prediction? :p

The Marcellus tax is an inevitability in PA and has republican support. Or at least enough to pass with democratic votes.

The overhaul of state taxes probably isn't going anywhere, but property taxes might.
 

Diablos

Member
The Marcellus tax is an inevitability in PA and has republican support. Or at least enough to pass with democratic votes.

The overhaul of state taxes probably isn't going anywhere, but property taxes might.
I'll believe it when I see it. The state GOP would be wise for taxation in favor of restoring some life back into education. I've never seen so many Republicans eager to vote against their own party's governor.

PA is a bureaucratic mess. It's the 5th most corrupt state in the nation for a reason...

Now if only they'll retake steps to improve housing, if McConnell takes back the senate he might try to push the johnson-crapo bill which passed the senate finance committee with strong R support, effectively wiping out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and destroying the 30 year mortgage as we know it. I don't know how Obama is allowing such a perilous risk to continue, if that passes good bye lower/middle class.
Obama should veto the fuck out of Johnson-Crapo/something similar if it ever gets to his desk.
 

benjipwns

Banned
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/joe-biden-2016-elections-112328.html
DAVENPORT, Iowa — Hillary Clinton came here Wednesday to sharpen her stump speech and, while she was at it, campaign for Bruce Braley for Senate.

Joe Biden came Monday to shake hands, pose for photos, wallop Republicans and try to convince the 150 people in an executive suite at the city’s minor league ballpark that Braley’s race is more important than either of the ones that put him and President Barack Obama in office.

...

“I look out on that field, and first thing I think is, ‘Coach, put me in, man, I’m ready to play,’” Biden said.

Most of the time, it’s not so hard to tell what Biden’s thinking — he’s just said it. But even his inner circle doesn’t seem to know where his head is on 2016 — whether he is actually going to get in the game or stay on the sidelines, dreaming of his glory days.

Throughout the midterms, he has been helping out candidates all over the country. It’s not clear to anyone, though, that there’s been the kind of strategy to help himself he’d need if he were serious about a White House run.

“You know the idea’s rattling around there, but I think that’s as far as we can speculate at this point,” said Larry Rasky, communications director for Biden’s two previous presidential runs and still an adviser and friend.

...

People who’ve been talking to Biden say the factor weighing on his mind may be less Clinton than Obama. Even as a sitting vice president, Biden might not be too proud to run a long-shot campaign, they insist. He was living it up during those months in 2007 when he was lucky to get a dozen people in a room and finished with a grand total of 1 percent in the Iowa caucuses.

...

Anyway, some around Biden say, maybe he’d be a better fit to be Clinton’s secretary of state.

...

A presidential campaign platform seems easy to imagine to Biden fans: He has been a middle- and working-class warrior for decades, and he has years of experience dealing with foreign policy and building relationships. He’s a hero to the LGBT community for pushing ahead of the president on gay marriage. He’s been around Washington forever, and while critics and Washington politicos say his gaffe-tastic speeches have given him the image of a political buffoon, Biden fans believe they make him seem outside-the-Beltway authentic.

“Average Americans would like more of that, not less of that. I think they’re tired of this calculating, intellectualized, very scripted politics,” said Mark Gitenstein, a former aide who recently returned from a tour as ambassador to Romania and remains in touch with the vice president. “Biden says what he thinks, and I think we ought to see more of it.”

“The world is a very scary place to a lot of people, and a wise old fatherly figure would say to people, ‘This guy gets it,’” Rasky said.

As in Iowa, Biden’s been eagerly sought for midterm campaigns in places Obama, with his low approval ratings, can’t go near. With a little less prestige and fewer motorcade cordons than when the president comes to town, and a lot less scrutiny and blowback, Biden’s been talking student loans, health care, Social Security, the wage gap, budget cuts that cost cops on the street — all the things Democrats want people to be thinking about on Election Day.

...

Later that day at a Rockford, Illinois, union hall rally for Gov. Pat Quinn, he went after multimillionaire Republican nominee Bruce Rauner.

“You’d think he’d be embarrassed,” Biden said. “My God, how can you have that much money and say we should have no minimum wage?”

A number of Democratic operatives involved in this year’s races wish they’d heard more of that. They blame Biden’s indecision for not being as active and effective a midterm weapon as they’d wanted, not stumping more and planning more carefully the stops he has made. With the presidential talk in their minds, they see a politician who’s anxious about putting himself in a position where he might look like he’s running for president, and anxious, too, about not doing enough.

“He should be owning and selling the fact that he’s a useful surrogate,” said a Democratic strategist involved in this year’s races.

...

“Everyone makes too much of the preparation,” said Ted Kaufman, a former Biden aide and temporary U.S. senator from Delaware.

In the group that’s starting to get anxious, though, are people like Biden superfan Sharon Holle, a retired nurse who was the Davenport field director for his 2008 run who gushes about every encounter she’s ever had with him.

Whenever Biden comes to town, she’s there, along with all the other supporters who are wishing he’d run.

“He hears that we’re on board, and his eyes just twinkle,” Holle said at a café overlooking the Mississippi just before Monday’s event.

Maybe that’s a yes. Maybe that’s a wistful no. Holle said she has no idea.

“If Biden is going to run for president, he needs to start getting staffers on the ground here in Iowa now,” she said.

There are people on his staff convinced he’ll run and have been since election night 2012. There are people on his staff who are sure he won’t.

In Davenport, Biden tells a story he’s told before, a lesson he says he learned in his earliest days in the Senate, when candidates kept asking him his secret to winning.

Simple, Biden remembers saying.

“You have to figure out what’s worth losing over.”
Biden/Wasserman-Schultz vs. Walker/Martinez in 2016. Book it.
 
When you said it was your superduper final prediction? :p
lol? just because I said it?

ftr I believe Democrats have a very real chance at winning IA, LA, GA, AK on election night. that prediction gives IA/AK to Republicans while assuming LA/GA go to run-offs. if anything I view the 48-49-Orman-2 runoffs as sort of a worst case scenario because I can't see Democrats losing much more than that.

Finally a non-partisan Colorado poll that makes me not want to strangle something
 
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