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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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Aaron Strife
Banned
Meh. It would be nice for Coakley to win but it's not like Baker would be able to do much.
Avon Barksdale
Member
Name recognition and money.
theprodigy
Member
I voted for the first time today!
Too bad it's in dumb shit Texas where my vote mean nothing.
hey, same here! *high five*
WayneMorse
Banned
If there's any silver lining to this at least it'll end her political career!
But to be fair she's actually run a better campaign than what she ran in 2010.
I'm glad Malloy is winning though.
But to be fair she's actually run a better campaign than what she ran in 2010.
I'm glad Malloy is winning though.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
2028 to turn purple assuming both whites and minorities continue voting the same way. Could be longer or shorter depending on if white people respond with increased fear and segregation or with understanding from more inclusiveness.
I know there's an organization, Battleground Texas, hard at work at making Texas turn blue possibility. Joaquin Castro name-dropped them on The Daily Show. Some weeks (months?) back Wendy Davis said in an interview with Rachel Maddow that Texas has a very low engagement because a lot of people who would vote Dem feel like their votes would be wasted so don't do it at all.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
In Colorado's 2010 election when Bennett won by 1.7 points, final voter registration was 33.0% D - 39.8% R. In early voting they are 32.3% D - 41.1% R right now, which is a 2 point swing.
Democrats + Independents are slowly making gains on republicans every day.
Dare I dream? This thing is so damn close it's killing me.
Democrats + Independents are slowly making gains on republicans every day.
Dare I dream? This thing is so damn close it's killing me.
benjipwns
Banned
Why does you voting the same way as everyone else make your vote matter?
WayneMorse
Banned
Aaron Strife wanna make an avatar bet? If the Dems hold Iowa and Colorado you can pick my avatar for the next six months.
Aaron Strife
Banned
PPP's Arkansas and Kentucky polls bumming me out. Cotton up 6, McConnell up 9.
Path to a majority never ran through them anyway I guess.
Not buying that DMR poll. Way too outliery.
Path to a majority never ran through them anyway I guess.
Not buying that DMR poll. Way too outliery.
I already have one going with PD sorry. Re: Iowa, Arkansas (hah), North Carolina.WayneMorse said:
WayneMorse
Banned
Welp this is slightly terrifying. I guess really it was all just a matter of messaging and not actually changing their views.
Nonthreatening face + quirky ads + [insert state here] values = electoral success
They asked what Braley's biggest "mistake" was, and it was the comment on Grassley because of course it was.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Landrieu polling ok per PPP. Down 48-47 in a run-off, up at 43 in the jungle primary with Cassidy at 35 and Maness at 15.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
SurveyUSA on Arkansas is interesting how they've corrected as the election drew closer to an end. They've been Grimes best hope in the last month, and they've abandoned her.
It's the type of thing that makes you wonder if they were purposely trying to pushing it one way and correcting by the final tally where they'll be most judged, or if they just don't like being an outlier and are readjusting according to the poll average and not according to any of their own research.
To be honest, the GOP could've taken control of the Senate much sooner if their candidates hadn't made idiotic missteps. There was that seat in Delaware, which was an ideal pickup for them, but was ruined due to them nominating a teabagger who couldn't keep her crazy under wraps until after the election. Then, of course, there was those string of GOP candidates who couldn't shutup about rape in 2012, which lost them seats in states they should have won.
Last election, IN, MO, and ND should've been easier wins (though I think that McCaskill would've won anyway given her margin of victory).
It's just the Democrats making the gaffes this year. And really poor recruiting in MT -- Schweitzer should've ran.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Cotton, sullivan, and those guys are at least sane.
Ernst scares me that she's winning. She reminds me of Palin in the sense she doesn't know half of the stuff she is going to be doing.
Ernst scares me that she's winning. She reminds me of Palin in the sense she doesn't know half of the stuff she is going to be doing.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Ernst up 7 in the last Iowa DMR poll. Looks like I'll be 2 of 3 and win the avatar bet.
I'd imagine we'll get a corporate tax cut early next year, and a fast track for TPP. Ugh..
I'd imagine we'll get a corporate tax cut early next year, and a fast track for TPP. Ugh..
benjipwns
Banned
Yeah, it's not hard to see how you could have been looking at 2010:
R wins in Colorado, Delaware, Nevada
And 2012:
R wins in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota
With some tougher shots like Wisconsin and Washington, one of McMahon's bids, and Brown's re-election potentially going their way too.
60-40 Senate becomes 51-49 then 49-51 and this year (again "best case") makes 41-59. Ouch.
It's easy to forget that McCaskill was trailing from pretty much the start until Akin fucked up and even then he had a bit of a late comeback. (Plus she's a terrible candidate so it's not out of the realm of possibility that it could have been her saying something beyond stupid late in the campaign.)
What? No.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2012#Polling_2
There was no comeback. In fact, every poll underestimated how much McCaskill won by. Given, Rassmussen's R lean in the last election, the polling between the two of them was fairly tight until his August 9th remarks.
I don't really know how one could describe McCaskill as a "terrible candidate" either.
neurosisxeno
Member
Because being a terrible candidate has ever stopped someone from winning an election.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Akin lost by 16 points.
"Comeback"?
Btw that Selzer poll has Ernst dominating the early vote, contrary to literally everyone. It's junk.
"Comeback"?
Btw that Selzer poll has Ernst dominating the early vote, contrary to literally everyone. It's junk.
benjipwns
Banned
Who said otherwise?
There was if you actually think polling trends identify the state of a race at a point in time.
Most candidates are either terrible or worse.
Please to point to the moment where Akin had an apparent late comeback.
A "legitimate" comeback.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Note that the SurveyUSA poll basically nailed the final result in Missouri.
Just because pollsters got shit results doesn't mean there was an actual comeback.
Just because pollsters got shit results doesn't mean there was an actual comeback.
benjipwns
Banned
At the start of October the aggregate lead for McCaskill dropped from 5+ to 1-2 points for a short period before beginning its upward climb again. It was because Akin had climbed back up from the deadzone he fallen to over August to almost 45 again after staying in the race, leading to a GOP flock effect, before his slow descent back down to 40. They had fallen towards each other in a number of polls.
The blip spawned plenty of "comeback" jabber from the hopeful:
http://www.businessinsider.com/todd...dylike-rape-legitimate-missouri-senate-2012-9
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/e...ating-missouri-sen.-mccaskill/article/2509741
http://mail.unitedliberty.org/articles/11417-mo-senate-new-poll-shows-akin-making-a-comeback
http://politicalpartytime.org/blog/2012/09/28/10282/
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/senate-race-rankings-good-charlotte-20121002
Considering how dead dead dead dead his campaign should have been, she should have never seen the aggregate drop, the non-movement among independents in all the polls alone prevented everyone but SurveyUSA from spotting the actual growing margin. PPP's week of poll had them TIED with independents and GOP turnout higher. SurveyUSA had tagged the actual mega-flip among independents not to mention the depressed Republican vote which is why they got the margin right.
The blip spawned plenty of "comeback" jabber from the hopeful:
http://www.businessinsider.com/todd...dylike-rape-legitimate-missouri-senate-2012-9
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/e...ating-missouri-sen.-mccaskill/article/2509741
http://mail.unitedliberty.org/articles/11417-mo-senate-new-poll-shows-akin-making-a-comeback
http://politicalpartytime.org/blog/2012/09/28/10282/
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/senate-race-rankings-good-charlotte-20121002
Considering how dead dead dead dead his campaign should have been, she should have never seen the aggregate drop, the non-movement among independents in all the polls alone prevented everyone but SurveyUSA from spotting the actual growing margin. PPP's week of poll had them TIED with independents and GOP turnout higher. SurveyUSA had tagged the actual mega-flip among independents not to mention the depressed Republican vote which is why they got the margin right.
Either polls are the empirical data underlying your desired narrative at the current point in time or they aren't. You don't get to pick and choose retrospectively.
benjipwns
Banned
Of course you're not going to see anything but straight lines when you smooth out all the data points over months of differing samples. Turn it off on HuffPo's and you'll see the tiny contraction when Akin becomes the guaranteed GOP candidate before the trends resume. (Especially if you dump the partisan Live Phone polls.)
I legitimately don't see what you're talking about that would be at all noteworthy, or could be even considered a "comeback".
Aaron Strife
Banned
You can only judge pollsters' accuracy retrospectively.
I'm well aware that they are used for other means during the campaign.
I'm well aware that they are used for other means during the campaign.
benjipwns
Banned
Every slight poll movement in the direction of the narrative you want is a comeback for the candidate you favor. Akin "erased" McCaskill's growing lead for a weekend on the back of becoming the guaranteed GOP candidate. The race stayed considered within striking distance because of that. (And some really botched independent polling.) A dead dead dead campaign getting within the margin of error is fertile ground for scripting a comeback possibility.
But it's not really a relevant point considering that had Akin not made his error, he likely wouldn't have needed a comeback, significant or not. And it'd be another seat the GOP would hold now.
But it's not really a relevant point considering that had Akin not made his error, he likely wouldn't have needed a comeback, significant or not. And it'd be another seat the GOP would hold now.
While we have no way of actually knowing that, given McCaskill's actual margin of winning and the Rassmussen lean from the last election that is in every single one of these averages, there is reason to doubt that hypothesis.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Huffpo's final average missed the result by 8 points as well. So they were already biased towards Akin.
This is a dumb fucking argument
This is a dumb fucking argument
benjipwns
Banned
The "Rassmussen lean" is irrelevant because they had McCaskill ahead more than every other regular pollster, the problem was that everyone had Independents as toss-ups. Only SurveyUSA had a margin larger, and it was 25, final exit polls had 12. And SurveyUSA was the only one to show significantly depressed GOP numbers.
(They also had it the opposite in the prior poll and thus were the only one to have both Akin and McCaskill ahead by more than ten points the entire cycle.)
(They also had it the opposite in the prior poll and thus were the only one to have both Akin and McCaskill ahead by more than ten points the entire cycle.)
benjipwns
Banned
Anyway, back to the important issues, Johm McCain weighs in on the Palin Brawl:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEnrUsLHPxI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEnrUsLHPxI
NYCmetsfan
Banned
"the liberals"
Sub_Level
wants to fuck an Asian grill.
If you can summarize in a couple sentences (I'll read more than that if you post more), why does Russia support Iran?
Putin decries radical Islam in this speech but to my knowledge Iran is essentially an Islamic theocracy with some 'modern' caveats such as more divorce rights for women. The only reason there maybe isn't a high rate of recruitment in Iran for extremist groups is because they're not part of the particular sect which happens to be causing the violence in Iraq and Syria right now (correct me if I'm wrong)
Putin decries radical Islam in this speech but to my knowledge Iran is essentially an Islamic theocracy with some 'modern' caveats such as more divorce rights for women. The only reason there maybe isn't a high rate of recruitment in Iran for extremist groups is because they're not part of the particular sect which happens to be causing the violence in Iraq and Syria right now (correct me if I'm wrong)
A lot of it is realpolitik - taking a stance against America and oil.
And if you look at the direct threat of Islamic terrorism to Russia, it comes mostly from sunni Muslims (Dagestan and Chechnya are predominantly sunni) and Iran being a Shia country would not support them, and it might even directly fight against them.
Which in a roundabout way lead back to the east vs. west stuff, since those groups are in no small measure supported by Saudi Arabia, which aligns itself with the west.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
neurosisxeno
Member
Sunni muslims tend to be more extreme, Iran is primarily Shia muslims. On top of that, Russia (and China to an extent) tend to make it a point to support any country the US is focusing on bullying, as to drive home the point that the US has no right to police the entire globe. It's also the most likely country in the region to fight against radical Islam themselves. You can be an Islamic Theocracy without being radical.
benjipwns
Banned
To add to the above. History. Russia and Persia were "buds*" against the Turks.
The Soviets were the first country to recognize the Islamic Republic, for example, even though the Ayatollah railed against Atheistic Communism.
*As much as 1500-1900 era countries who warred with each other every generation or so can still be buddies.
Kevitivity
Member
This was way too interesting and relevant for me not to post, and quite frankly all the poll talk is boring.
ezra Klein's take on #Gamergate, and the politicization of everything.
http://www.vox.com/2014/11/1/7136343/gamergate-and-the-politicization-of-absolutely-everything
ezra Klein's take on #Gamergate, and the politicization of everything.
http://www.vox.com/2014/11/1/7136343/gamergate-and-the-politicization-of-absolutely-everything
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