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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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benjipwns

Banned
Six Reasons Why Scott Walker Will Be Elected President
1. He’s Part of the Middle Class (or He Actually Shops at Kohl’s and Sears)

2. He Didn’t Graduate from College

3. He Talks to People Not at Them Nor Does He Need to Shout to Make His Point

4. He Chooses His Battles Wisely

5. He Can Appeal to Conservatives and Non-Conservatives Alike

6. He Can Withstand the Liberal Hate Machine

Whoever wins the GOP nomination can expect the liberal hate machine, a coalition of the Democratic Party and the mainstream media, to vilify the Republican standard bearer as a racist, sexist, homophobe who cares only for the rich and wants to throw elderly grandmothers off cliffs. They will elevate benign comments like “binders full of women” into grievous insults. But sometimes Republican candidates supply the liberal hate machine with rocks as Mitt Romney did when he made the infamous 47% remarks. Romney’s inability to communicate with people in a resonant way effectively rendered him unable to overcome the liberal hate machine.

This is what I believe sets Walker apart not only from Romney, but the current 2016 GOP field. Like anyone else, Walker is human. He will make mistakes and say things in the wrong way. Last February, when speaking about ISIS, Walker said, “If I can take on 100,000 protesters, I can do the same across the world.” Walker was criticized for appearing to have compared union activists to ISIS and took heat for it for a day or so (even from some conservatives). But the story quickly ran its course. I think it’s very clear that Scott Walker didn’t intend to compare union activists to ISIS and it is equally clear that most people intrinsically understood that. As such it did him no lasting damage.

I don’t know if Walker has skin made of Teflon, but it is certainly thicker than that of the present occupant in the White House. What has toughened him is the fact that liberals from all over the country have made a concerted effort to unseat Walker and undo his reforms and he has found a way to beat them at every turn. It is no small accomplishment that Walker is the first governor in American history to survive a recall vote.

The reason liberals have failed to oust Walker from office is that liberals portray Walker as a monster, but Walker simply doesn’t come off that way to most people. If anything it is the liberals who have been far more monstrous in their behavior towards Walker and his family, effectively making him a more sympathetic figure. When the Boston band the Dropkick Murphys objected to Walker using their version of the Woody Guthrie penned song “I’m Shipping Up to Boston” at the Iowa Freedom Summit, they tweeted, “we literally hate you.” This says a great deal more about the Dropkick Murphys than it does about Scott Walker. I suspect we will see a lot more of this and, to paraphrase Nietzsche, what does not kill Walker will make him stronger. If Walker can carry himself with more decency than his opponents, then he will go far.

Conclusion

Obviously all of this is far easier said than done. Walker’s opponents in the Republican field aren’t going to roll over and play dead for him nor should they. Should Walker continue to resonate with Republican voters, his opponents will go at him with everything they’ve got. Yet they can’t take away the fact that Walker has been a successful conservative governor in a blue state during the Obama era and has been twice re-elected in the space of four years despite the slings and arrows from the liberal hate machine. If that hasn’t prepared him for the Republican primary season and the presidential election, nothing will.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I think it would be good if PoliGAF was more active in The Daily Show's #YourMonthOfZen marathon thread. Your insight/foresight would be useful to the discussion, and it should be fun for you to revisit our stupid past. Currently, we're into November of 2005, and Obama is about to give his first Daily Show interview under an hour from now (episode starts 3:26AM EST).

The stream itself is here: http://www.cc.com/zen

I made an estimated schedule of the stream here so you can tell where we're at.

Can't watch the stream in your own country? Try: http://goo.gl/zVznki
(It says Nickelodeon, but it works for Comedy Central as well.)

I tried, but reliving the days of the media building up and promoting the Iraq war proved too depressing. Maybe we're about past that point now.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Uprooting ones life because of a single election is such a bourgeoisie thing.

Don't stay behind to help rescue those at mercy of the new regime. Instead bail out, taking your capital and political acumen with you, due to personal spite at a third of the population selecting who they see as the least bad of two options.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If he wins the election I am moving to England.

Seriously though, he is being massively overhyped by conservatives. He won't make it through the primary based only on the fact he can't hope to live up to their expectations.

He also flatout lied directly to the public at least twice--once about how he swore right-to-work wouldn't be a part of his tenure, then another time when he said abortion is a woman's choice, and then passed the 20-week ban even in cases of rape/incest.

That's not going to sit well with the American public.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Another foreign policy disaster, Obama blinked, and let Valerie Jarrett lead him right into the deal Iran wants:
According to a 159-page document posted online by Russia’s foreign ministry, which it called the final text of the deal, a U.N. resolution lifting sanctions will also express the Security Council’s “desire to build a new relationship with Iran.”

The text says also that Iran has vowed that “under no circumstances” will it ever “seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.” And it describes a joint commission composed of its seven parties to monitor the deal’s implementation.

One issue that will draw close scrutiny from nuclear experts is Iran’s ability to research advanced nuclear technologies while its program is constrained by a deal. Iran now relies on 1970s-era centrifuges to enrich uranium, which are highly inefficient. The document posted by Russian foreign ministry says that after 8½eight and a half years Iran can begin testing up to 30 modern IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuges. Analysts fear that, if Iran masters top-quality centrifuges, it might be capable of producing a bomb in a matter of months or weeks soon after the deal’s main restrictions lift in a decade.

On an issue that snagged the talks in their final days, the deal will free Iran from an arms embargo after five years, Obama said Tuesday.
150714_iran_ap_1160_1160x629.jpg


This is basically Obama's Benghazi.
 

LAtoDC

Neo Member
This is what change looks like people. Another historic day for the Obama Administration. The world is a safer place today
 

benjipwns

Banned
This is what change looks like people. Another historic day for the Obama Administration. The world is a safer place today
Oh yeah, then explain John Kerry's face:
Sharon5101 Rockaway Beach Ny 3 hours ago
For such a historic deal John Kerry sure doesn't look happy in the photo accompanying this story. This is almost as bad as the deal we cut in the 1980's in which we gave Iran arms in exchange for the release of the embassy staff being held hostage by Iran. Treaties can be broken so easily. Iran still thinks America is the Great Satan and a scrap of paper isn't going to change that any more than Times commenters believe we trashed Iranian democracy in 1953.

Plus you sound like Chamberlain!
slimowri2 milford, new jersey 1 hour ago
This treaty has further weakened the U.S. in the Middle East. Obama and
the U.S. has displayed a fundamental misunderstanding of the Iranian
strategic future plans. We are repeating the history of the thirties, when
Chamberlain declared peace in our time. Are these the same Iranians
that captured our embassy in 1979 for 404 days?
 

benjipwns

Banned
It's all over, last one in America turn out the lights.
A. Stanton Dallas, TX 3 hours ago
A peace-for-our-time-deal if ever there was one.

A legacy not worth the paper it is written on.

A huge and lasting gift to Russia and China in exchange for help and support rendered to Iran in the course of these negotiations.

The day the U.S. permanently became another Europe.

A lasting stain on America’s reputation for standing by its allies that will sully its good name and reputation for generations.

A tragic end to the dreams of millions of people in the Middle East hoping to escape domination and oppressive rule by Iran.

A catastrophe for the Democratic Party.

Those braying sounds of laughter you are now hearing in the distance. They are coming from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the State Department, the Ayatollah’s prayer houses, the editorial, op-ed and comment sections of the NY Times, the offices of J-Street and everywhere else that enemies of Israel gather.

Democracy’s only outpost in the Middle East; the only Jewish country in the world; the country looked at by most Jews in the world as their spiritual home and refuge in times of crisis. This hideous deal must not stand.
 
the best part of that comment is that this

Those braying sounds of laughter you are now hearing in the distance. They are coming from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the State Department, the Ayatollah’s prayer houses, the editorial, op-ed and comment sections of the NY Times, the offices of J-Street [...]

is actually right, but for a completely different reason
 

benjipwns

Banned
Is Graham really influenced by Israel lobby? I feel like he's got a war boner no matter who is involved. They probably think he's too eager to use military force.
 
Is Graham really influenced by Israel lobby? I feel like he's got a war boner no matter who is involved. They probably think he's too eager to use military force.

Israel doesn't want war like Graham want's war. They just want Iran sanctioned. That's what they're pissed about not nukes. The sanctions just tip the balance towards Gulf/Israeli influence in the Mid East.
 

benjipwns

Banned
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/247752-report-one-third-of-vets-waiting-medical-care-already-dead
An internal Veterans Affairs Department report states that about one-third of the veterans waiting to receive medical care from the agency have already died.

A review of veteran death records provided to the Huffington Post found that, as of April, 847,822 veterans were awaiting healthcare and that of those, 238,647 were already deceased.

...

"VA wants you to believe, by virtue of people being able to get health care elsewhere, it's not a big deal. But VA is turning away tens of thousands of veterans eligible for health care," he said. "VA is making it cumbersome, and then saying, 'See? They didn't want it anyway.'"
whoops
 

It's amazing that liberals continue to underestimate and outright dismiss him. Once he gets on the ground in Iowa/NH it's going to be quite clear he's the best candidate for conservatives. And while I don't think he can win a general election it would be rather interesting on many levels. If anything can unite unions for Hillary it would be a Walker candidacy. It would also be interesting to see the gender gap: Hillary would dominate the female vote and I could see Walker dominating the male vote at some of the highest levels in modern memory.

If not for his extremist positions he would be a great general election candidate. He could really take the anti-Washington mantle and hammer Hillary's record of nothingness/foreign policy failure.
 
Two things that really stick out for me, that I think *will* matter in the election.

1) I don't think Walker appeals to moderates at all. Not more than a mainstream Hilary will, certainly.

2) I think the lack of a college degree will actually hurt him. Not among his base, but certainly with swing voters.

I also think Wisconsin's record is going to get dragged through the mud.
 
Its way too early to tell if walker or anyone else will win the gop nom. Too many candidates and too many state primaries = a fuckton of variables. Gov Walker might never win a single primary after bush/rubio/trump (lol.) get their momentum going. But please, continue to speculate
 

HylianTom

Banned
He'd be forced to take Kasich if he wants a shot at carrying Ohio; Hillary's job at that point would be to paint him as the most anti-union presidential candidate in modern history.

And then the Walker-Kasich ticket would be weak in Florida, Colorado, etc.

The GOP has to play a near-perfect game of whack-a-mole; Hillary just needs one or two successful hits.
 
Hrm. You do raise quite an interesting point as far as unions are concerned, though.

Walker on the ticket will see the biggest Union involvement in a campaign ever. They've also learned a lot from their loss in Wisconsin. The divide and conquer he used there is already expended
 
When did this Iran deal means we're now allies meme come from. I can't bear to be in the Iran thread because its the guiding line of reasoning through out. And its incredibly annoying
 

benjipwns

Banned
I imagine a significant percent of the general population die while awaiting treatment; that's why they are trying to get the treatment in the first place, no?
Did you miss that whole thing where they were falsifying records, covering up never scheduling anything, etc. to meet arbitrary benchmarks while denying care?

The VA not being able to identify and remove the dead from their waitlists because they assume the patient got care elsewhere isn't really a good excuse considering their other behavior.
 
He'd be forced to take Kasich if he wants a shot at carrying Ohio; Hillary's job at that point would be to paint him as the most anti-union presidential candidate in modern history.

And then the Walker-Kasich ticket would be weak in Florida, Colorado, etc.

The GOP has to play a near-perfect game of whack-a-mole; Hillary just needs one or two successful hits.
I think it'll be Walker-Rubio. In fact, it'll be an exact mirror of 2008:

Dem ticket:

Hillary Clinton - Historic candidacy
Tim Kaine - Establishment pol, derided by some as "boring" but has a safe appeal

GOP ticket:

Scott Walker - Out of touch white guy
Marco Rubio - Token minority chosen so the GOP can claim it's a historic candidacy, no one cares outside of out of touch white guys
 
He's been in the game for a while. Not 30-40 years' worth of experience like Biden had, but still. Maybe "statesman" isn't the right word but he's about as establishment as it gets.

Who ever considered Joe Biden boring?
08 coverage was dominated by people who were disappointed that Obama didn't pick a woman as his VP and went with an old white dude, and Republicans bragging about Palin being a more exciting VP pick than Biden. It took a while before everyone realized how much of a disaster she was.
 
He's been in the game for a while. Not 30-40 years' worth of experience like Biden had, but still. Maybe "statesman" isn't the right word but he's about as establishment as it gets.

He's a freshman senator. Granted he was a governor and thus is more qualified than Obama/Rubio but still. I wouldn't call him a statesman or particularly established. I'm more apt to believe Mark Warner would be Hillary's VP choice - if she's choosing VA senators.
 

benjipwns

Banned
He served four years as a Governor, and by 2017 will have spent another four years in the Senate.

If that's the standard for an experienced statesmen these days...Rick Santorum (16 years in Congress) and Lindsey Graham (22 years in Congress) are like elder statesmen.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
No Warner. That means filling two senate seats 2 years later in a midterm. It will be Castro or Kaine. Kaine with a Kasich like pick or Castro with a Rubio like pick.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Two overlooked possibilities:
Tom Vilsack
Evan Bayh

And no, I didn't include Bayh just so I could have a reason to post this picture:
Bayh_Tax_Cut.jpg
 

ivysaur12

Banned
He's a freshman senator. Granted he was a governor and thus is more qualified than Obama/Rubio but still. I wouldn't call him a statesman or particularly established. I'm more apt to believe Mark Warner would be Hillary's VP choice - if she's choosing VA senators.

If we're going by tenure in public service, Kaine has a bit of a longer and more diverse resume than Warner.

Mayor of Richmond: 1998-2001
Lt. Governor of Virginia: 2002-2006
Governor of Virginia: 2006-2010
(Chairman of DNC: 2009-2011)
Virginia Senator Class 1: 2013 - present

Versus Warner, who worked in venture capital before and some state activism before he ran (and lost) for Senate and then ran (and won) for governor in 2002. I don't really such much of a difference between the two, to be honest, and saying that he's a freshman senator also diminishes the work he did beforehand.
 
I think it'll be Walker-Rubio. In fact, it'll be an exact mirror of 2008:

Dem ticket:

Hillary Clinton - Historic candidacy
Tim Kaine - Experienced statesman, derided by some as "boring" but has a safe appeal

GOP ticket:

Scott Walker - Out of touch white guy
Marco Rubio - Token minority chosen so the GOP can claim it's a historic candidacy, no one cares outside of out of touch white guys
Rubio is white
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
When did this Iran deal means we're now allies meme come from. I can't bear to be in the Iran thread because its the guiding line of reasoning through out. And its incredibly annoying
"If you're not against us, you're with us." -Gorge W Brush
 
Wouldn't the governor simply appoint someone to finish Warner's term? I'd bet money on Tom Perriello.
Special election law

(2) If the vacancy occurs before a specified date preceding the regular primary (HI: 60 days; MN: 6 weeks; NJ: 30 days; NY: 59 days; VA: 12 days), the election is held in the following November; if the vacancy occurs within the specified period preceding the regular primary, the vacancy election is held at the second November election after the vacancy occurs.
From my understanding a special election would occur in 2018 whether Warner or Kaine was the nominee. This lines up with Kaine's re-election but would happen two years before Warner's re-election. I'd rather only put one seat on the line than two.

I thought it'd be Warner too but he fell asleep at the wheel in 2014 and almost lost to a nobody which has apparently hurt his profile with national Democrats.

Perriello is my ideal candidate the next time VA-SEN is open, in any case.

Rubio is white
Potato potahto.
 
Remember that story about Hillary relying on Bayh's expertise during the Indiana primary, and how the campaign expected a big win due to Obama's Wright troubles+Indiana having similar demographics to states Obama was routed in? The NC primary was held the same night and everyone expected a big Obama win there, so Hillary winning big in Indiana was seen as necessary for her campaign to continue.

Ultimately Obama destroyed Clinton in NC, just in time for the evening news. Meanwhile he narrowly lost Indiana, the results of which didn't come in until late. Bayh, who had promised a big victory, was reduced to sitting in the HQ refreshing online election reports as Clinton loyalists fumed. That was also the night Tim Russert declared Obama the nominee. And thus one of the worst nights of my life.

Bayh hasn't done much of anything since then, outside of ruin his shot at becoming Obama's VP later that year and hawk Third Way bullshit.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Perhaps it's even more certain that a losing Republican Party in 2016 will look to follow Bill Clinton's lead. If the GOP loses next year, that's three in a row. They'll have lost the popular vote in six out of the last seven presidential elections and people will be talking about the GOP's obsolescence, in much the same way pundits had written off the Democratic Party before Bill Clinton came along. "When a party loses three times in a row," George Mason University public policy Prof. William Schneider says, "it's forced to reach a simple conclusion: We can't go on like this."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...-bill-clinton-118555_Page2.html#ixzz3ft6BYQvz

Do they even have their own Bill Clinton?
 
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