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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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C

Coriolanus

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Do they even have their own Bill Clinton?
Click to expand...

Of course.
3trump-feud-18-4_3.jpg


They just gotta learn to embrace it.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Their Clinton would be someone like Jon Huntsman, or even Romney if he wasn't such an out of touch choad. As far as someone with the same combination of charisma, populist political positions, and pure smarts that Clinton brought? Such a person would never be a Republican.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Shows how much i know...

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker opened his presidential candidacy speech with a story from his time in Boy Scouts, and he frequently cites being an Eagle Scout to illustrate his Americana appeal and preparedness.

But the Boy Scouts of today is quickly becoming an organization Walker may not recognize.

The Boy Scouts of America’s National Executive Committee voted unanimously this week on a directive that would allow gay adults to serve as employees and troop leaders.

In response to the vote, Walker told IJReview:

“I was an Eagle Scout, my kids have been involved, Tonette (Walker) was a den mother.

“I have had a lifelong commitment to the Scouts and support the previous membership policy because it protected children and advanced Scout values.”
Click to expand...

Why yes, Scottie, gays be violent paedophiles. Glad you went there.

OT.

benjipwns said:
*Huntsman obsession intensifies*
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Well, it has been about three or so months since you've last doxxed Hunstman here. About time for a refresh.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Carlos Curbelo believes Donald "I beat China all the time" Trump is a Democratic party plant.

Miami is a hotbed for phantom candidates, complete with four federal criminal convictions in two separate cases to prove it. So perhaps it's no surprise that a local Republican congressman thinks Donald "@BetteMidler is an extremely unattractive woman" Trump's bid for the GOP presidential nomination could be a similar ploy.

Miami Rep. Carlos Curbelo, whose district saw two phony candidates run in a pair of elections before he took office, has taken to Spanish-language media to suggest that Donald "I have a great relationship with the blacks" Trump's campaign could be a Democratic scheme to hurt the Republican Party.
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It's not the worst theory in the world. Not that I believe he is.
 
F

Farmboy

Member
NeoXChaos said:
It will be Castro or Kaine. Kaine with a Kasich like pick or Castro with a Rubio like pick.
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Agreed, except I think Hillary prefers Castro by a lot and will pick certainly him if Bush or Rubio is the nominee, regardless of who they pick as running mate.

I understand the importance of shoring up support in Virginia, but Hillary doesn't need Kaine for 'gravitas' the way Obama needed Biden.

Still, Kaine is a solid choice. I think Hillary would prefer someone more exciting, but if she's far ahead anyway she might go for solidity. It's hard to say how good of a debater Castro is, for example.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Why would Hillary prefer Castro? What does he bring her? She's not going to listen to his advice or anything.

I have doubts she wants an heir or a partner.

Why would Castro want to be VP? Or Kaine? Or Warner? Or Gillibrand? Or any of these other people who have careers that could still go places.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Trumpmentum

WASHINGTON — Donald Trump has surged to the top of a crowded Republican presidential field, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, but the brash billionaire is also the weakest competitor among the top seven GOP candidates against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

In the nationwide survey, Trump leads at 17% and former Florida governor Jeb Bush is second at 14%, the only competitors who reach double digits. Trump's edge, which is within the poll's margin of error, is one more sign that his ​harsh rhetoric about immigration and toward his rivals has struck a chord with some voters.

"He's got some backbone," Steve Fusaro, 59, of San Clemente, Calif., who was among those polled, said approvingly in a follow-up interview. "We need a businessman."
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Hold me.

While he leads the GOP field, he fares the worst of seven hopefuls in hypothetical head-to-heads against former secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the leading Democratic nominee. Bush, the strongest candidate against Clinton, lags by four points nationwide, 46%-42%. Trump trails by 17 points, 51%-34%.

That's a wider margin than Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (down 6 points), former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (8 points), Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (9 points), Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (10 points) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (13 points).
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Clinton vs. Bush is Obama 2012, Clinton vs. Walker is Obama 2008, Clinton vs. Trump is LBJ.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Or it dooms you to a nebulous familiar obscurity.

Nixon is the only truly successful Veep of the modern political era, and he still needed eight years in the wilderness afterwards, we had the technology, we did rebuild him. Everyone else got there because the President died, resigned or they were George H.W. Bush and nobody cared enough to stop him. (Teddy, Coolidge, Truman, LBJ, Bush, all only elected once in their own right. And Teddy got shot in the speech.)

Really, going back, it's all bad news for Veeps who "ascended" to the throne. John Adams, only elected once. Van Buren only elected once and cast off by his party after that before resurfacing in a third party bid. John Tyler abandoned by his entire Cabinet and both parties, then had like half his new cabinet killed on a ship thanks to The Peacemaker. Millard Fillmore cast off into the Know Nothings. Andrew Johnson, impeached, denied renomination. Chester A. Arthur, denied renomination and would have died of Blight's Disease anyway.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
PhoenixDark said:
It's amazing that liberals continue to underestimate and outright dismiss him. Once he gets on the ground in Iowa/NH it's going to be quite clear he's the best candidate for conservatives. And while I don't think he can win a general election it would be rather interesting on many levels. If anything can unite unions for Hillary it would be a Walker candidacy. It would also be interesting to see the gender gap: Hillary would dominate the female vote and I could see Walker dominating the male vote at some of the highest levels in modern memory.

If not for his extremist positions he would be a great general election candidate. He could really take the anti-Washington mantle and hammer Hillary's record of nothingness/foreign policy failure.
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Scotty said:
“The left claims they’re for American workers, and they’ve got lame ideas, things like minimum wage,” Walker said. “We need to talk about how we get people skills and qualifications they need to get jobs that go beyond minimum wage.”
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There's yer Republican threat.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Facing unions is comparable to facing ISIS.
The minimum wage is lame.
Protecting scouts from gays.

Yeah.. I'm liking this Walker guy. Seeing him get taken out to the electoral woodshed would be damn satisfying.
 
F

Farmboy

Member
Well, the last two presidents picked experienced pols to balance their perceived lack of gravitas. Clinton was the most recent president to pick a veep that was also a potential successor and that... almost went according to plan.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
There is also no guarantee Castro could win not 1 but 2 terms. The VP has a terrible record. I'm not saying it couldn't happen but that would require an insurmountable streak in luck not seen in the history of the U.S. Even FDR and Truman only got to 5 terms. This would require 6 straight wins starting with Obama.

Of the nine vice presidents who ascended to the presidency after their predecessor's death or resignation, only 4 were subsequently elected in their own right: Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson.

Only 3 vice presidents have been elected president once, and then defeated in reelection: John Adams, Martin Van Buren, and George H.W. Bush.

Only 2 vice presidents have ever been elected and reelected president: Thomas Jefferson and Richard Nixon (only Jefferson served two full terms).

Richard Nixon is the only one on this list who was not serving as vice president when he was elected.

Gerald Ford was the only vice president who became president by ascension, secured his party's nomination, and then lost in the general election.
Click to expand...
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
HylianTom said:
Facing unions is comparable to facing ISIS.
The minimum wage is lame.
Protecting scouts from gays.

Yeah.. I'm liking this Walker guy. Seeing him get taken out to the electoral woodshed would be damn satisfying.
Click to expand...
Walker will get slaughtered if he's the GOP nominee. Sure, he won in a blue state - during a midterm. He's never had to face turnout in an election people actually gave a shit about.

Also everyone knows the 2024 ticket will be Kamala Harris and Cory Booker. Everyone.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Walker will get slaughtered if he's the GOP nominee. Sure, he won in a blue state - during a midterm. He's never had to face turnout in an election people actually gave a shit about.

Also everyone knows the 2024 ticket will be Kamala Harris and Cory Booker. Everyone.
Click to expand...

That is not all true. You and I cared. Your family and friends at home cared. We voted last year. Just not enough people cared. Sadly that has been the case going back decades.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
NeoXChaos said:
Are we going to get Bernie numbers in the next couple of months? Would love to see some polls on him as he gets to be known more.
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He won't be well known until the debates start.

To clarify, I think he's currently in a valley between the boost from announcing and the potential boost from average people starting to care about the election once the debates start. I don't see anything that can make him significantly more visible until then.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
That is not all true. You and I cared. Your family and friends at home cared. We voted last year. Just not enough people cared. Sadly that has been the case going back decades.
Click to expand...
When I say "no one" I'm being quite general.

If I represented the average voter Bernie Sanders would be our next president and Democrats would hold supermajorities in Congress.

Although I will say when I voted last year my preferred statewide candidates won by ~6 and ~10 points, respectively.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
If I represented the average voter, there would be a 220mph high-speed rail network I could use to get to Canada from Columbus right now because that shit would've been funded 20 years ago.
 
D

dabig2

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Walker will get slaughtered if he's the GOP nominee. Sure, he won in a blue state - during a midterm. He's never had to face turnout in an election people actually gave a shit about.

Also everyone knows the 2024 ticket will be Kamala Harris and Cory Booker. Everyone.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Walker's best election result in Wisconsin was 1.33 million votes for him during his recall election.

Romney later got 1.4 million votes that same year and still lost Wisconsin by 200 thousand. Wasn't really that close.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
As Aaron points out every poll, it wont stop the media from saying "dead heat" all the way until November. It wont stop us from over analyzing every poll that comes out. It wont stop PD and Diablos from Diablosing about "Hillary might lose this". "Walker(or Jeb) might win this" "No way Feingold is down 5 points on Johnson" "Junk Poll"
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
As Aaron points out every poll, it wont stop the media from saying "dead heat" all the way until November. It wont stop us from over analyzing every poll that comes out. It wont stop PD and Diablos from Diablosing about "Hillary might lose this". "Walker(or Jeb) might win this" "No way Feingold is down 5 points on Johnson" "Junk Poll"
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The write-up on Suffolk is pretty bad too. Whining about Hillary snubbing the media and then saying she's under 50 against Bush, which means she's in trouble.

You know who else is under 50 in that poll? Bush. Fucking hacks.

Hillary will beat the GOP nominee by >5 points.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Looking at those polls, I'm even more confident Jeb! ends up the nominee.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Lets just get through this election first. No one 7 years ago was saying Hillary was going to be the nominee in 2016. Harris is certainly going to be in the senate and Heitkamp will be a lobbyist.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
A lot of new faces could pop up in ten years, but yeah, they're absolutely part of the rising star class.

I'd also take a Harris/Heitkamp ticket, of course.
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I'm kind of hoping we'll see a double minority ticket soon - a double woman ticket would be great too. I know I was hoping for Clinton/Klobuchar (and for Dayton to appoint Keith Ellison in Klobuchar's place - first Muslim senator, conservative heads would explode). But 2016 probably won't be the year for that.

NeoXChaos said:
Lets just get through this election first. No one 7 years ago was saying Hillary was going to be the nominee in 2016. Harris is certainly going to be in the senate and Heitkamp will be a lobbyist.
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Um I was. I think everyone knew Hillary would give it another shot.

Also Heitkamp and Donnelly will hold on in 2018.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I'm kind of hoping we'll see a double minority ticket soon - a double woman ticket would be great too. I know I was hoping for Clinton/Klobuchar (and for Dayton to appoint Keith Ellison in Klobuchar's place - first Muslim senator, conservative heads would explode). But 2016 probably won't be the year for that.


Um I was. I think everyone knew Hillary would give it another shot.

Also Heitkamp and Donnelly will hold on in 2018.
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Sure but be the nominee? only through 2010 losses, Obama's reelect in 2012 and 2014 losses cemented her inevitable nomination next summer. I'm glad you mentioned Donnelly. He will be a lobbyist as well.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
I'm less sure about Donnelly while Heidi Heitkamp is a living legend to be praised forever.

(In reality, North Dakota's populace is so small that it's much more elastic in terms of electability and Heitkamp remains relatively popular iirc. And Berg was a much better candidate than Mourdock was)
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
ivysaur12 said:
I'm less sure about Donnelly while Heidi Heitkamp is a living legend to be praised forever.

(In reality, North Dakota's populace is so small that it's much more elastic in terms of electability and Heitkamp remains relatively popular iirc)
Click to expand...

and because of that its the only scenario I see Tester, and Heitkamp surviving while Donnelly and Mccaskill going down in defeat with Manchin the obvious exception and the likeliest of them all to survive barring another Republican wave. Manchin is a lot like Collins. Once they retire or defeated, their seats are gone for their parties.

The problem with Tennant compared to Manchin is simply based off popularity when you compare the environments they ran in. Manchin was a popular Gov with a 73% approval rating and still only ecked out a 11pt win by shooting the HC Bill. I think he could have pulled it off against Capito but it would have been a 5pt or less race. Tennant was essentially a nobody against a popular figure and the state further drifting toward the Republicans
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
and because of that its the only scenario I see Tester, and Heitkamp surviving while Donnelly and Mccaskill going down in defeat with Manchin the obvious exception and the likeliest of them all to survive barring another Republican wave.

The problem with Tennant compared to Manchin is simply based off popularity when you compare the environments they ran in. Manchin was a popular Gov with a 73% approval rating and still only ecked out a 11pt win by shooting the HC Bill. I think he could have pulled it off against Capito but it would have been a 5pt or less race. Tennant was essentially a nobody against a popular figure and the state further drifting toward the Republicans.
Click to expand...

Shelley Moore Capito is also one of the better politicians that West Virginia has at the moment, so she was going to be a strong candidate in an open seat regardless of who she faced.

If I were a betting man, today, I would put much more money on Tester and Heitkamp than I would the others, especially because the Missouri GOP will be on high alert not to do that thing they did last time which was nominate a flawed candidate. McCaskill is a fighter, but I would think this race starts as a lean-GOP regardless of who the candidate is. Same with Donnelly. Manchin is TBD since the politics of West Virginia are shifting so much so fast, and I wonder how much Manchin's popularity can withstand the D after his name in 2018.

Obviously this is far in the future, but Montana is (sloooowly) drifting left-ward as Missoula and Billings outgrow the rest of the state. The demographics will be much more on Tester's side than in 2012, though the electorate will be a midterm electorate. I mean, fucking school teacher Amanda Curtin who wasn't even supposed to be the nominee in 2014 got a higher % of the vote than Mark Pryor. The good thing about Montana and North Dakota for the Democrats is that the populations of both states are very small, making swings easier. Their large size also means that media buys matter less than a GOTV, which the Democrats are significantly better at than their Republican couterparts.

The opposite is happening in Missouri and Indiana as they drift right-ward. That, coupled with a mid-term electorate will probably be a disaster for McCaskill and Donnelly. And both will likely face real opponents.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Y'know that general poll that was ranking what percentage of people would vote for say, a muslim, an atheist and the sort?

I kinda wanna see that with a new option: a Trump.

And yes, i just wanna see if he'll score lower than a socialist.
 
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