eBay Huckster
Member
also OH is bright red without Cleveland
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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also OH is bright red without Cleveland
Not with what happened in Baltimore being directly related to his actions as mayor and criminal justice being a big issue, at least in the primary.
Might it be time for a round of primary predictions? (GOP, that is. Unless someone wants to seriously predict Sanders will pull off the upset.)
Having predicted Walker for a while, I'm switching to Bush. I actually think (fear) he'll look measured in the debates, especially if the Trump Train keeps rolling for a while. I also have the sense that he's learned from his early gaffes. Walker doesn't seem quite as ready for prime time, by comparison.
Dream candidate is, of course, still Trump.
Having predicted Walker for a while, I'm switching to Bush. I actually think (fear) he'll look measured in the debates, especially if the Trump Train keeps rolling for a while. I also have the sense that he's learned from his early gaffes. Walker doesn't seem quite as ready for prime time, by comparison.
Dream candidate is, of course, still Trump.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Bush vs Sanders is my prediction.
http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bLVL
http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bLVL
It's a question I've thought about a lot over the years. I used to think it was a solid 20-30% of Republicans. The ones who identify as tea partiers, the ones who believe Obama's from Kenya, etc. I thought the majority of Republicans were pretty decent folk who don't religious watch Fox News. But then I saw the recent polls on how 60-70% of Republicans think Republican politicians aren't fighting hard enough to repeal Obamacare and fight against the SC ruling against gay marriage. So it looks like "the base" is much bigger than previously expected.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
The republicans have no chance, do they? I mean, you gave them Florida, they kept NC, and even if you threw them VA or OH, it wouldn't matter. I just don't see how they can win outside of a major collapse/error by the dem nominee.
Macho Madness
Member
This is a Bernie/Bush map to me: http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bLVQ
My brother canvassed for Obama and they put in some serious time and effort into counties that they knew where 90+%
It may seem fruitless but you have to put in the effort otherwise you'll never see change in the long term.
Lucky Forward
Member
For right now it seems O'Malley is still relatively unknown outside of Maryland.
O'Malley relying heavily on Maryland for campaign cash
I will make sure that you are the first to cry on my shoulder when Hillary wins.
Trust me guys, Howard Dean is going to win the 2004 primary. I mean he has young white liberals behind him! Everyone online seems to like him!
The white elephant in the room for Sanders is he doesn't even have the niche young liberal white vote locked down (which even if he did is not a winning formula).
Look at any of the traditional Sanders strong holds online. Daily Kos, Democratic Underground, Reddit, or even here. it's almost entirely just men. Hillary is getting the female vote. For all the democratic constituents. Yes, even the young liberal white vote that are the Sanders fans online.
Having a stranglehold on the female vote is a huge reason why she kept it so close with Obama to the end. That base is not going away no matter how much 20 something internet forum type guys hope it would.
The white elephant in the room for Sanders is he doesn't even have the niche young liberal white vote locked down (which even if he did is not a winning formula).
Look at any of the traditional Sanders strong holds online. Daily Kos, Democratic Underground, Reddit, or even here. it's almost entirely just men. Hillary is getting the female vote. For all the democratic constituents. Yes, even the young liberal white vote that are the Sanders fans online.
Having a stranglehold on the female vote is a huge reason why she kept it so close with Obama to the end. That base is not going away no matter how much 20 something internet forum type guys hope it would.
Kucinich '08!
Third Strike
Member
How worried should I be of Bernie's supporters splitting the vote? I'm concerned that if/when Bernie doesn't get the nomination, his supporters will not go out to vote in the general election, or they will try to do a write in for Sanders. I've even seen some post on Reddit, Tumblr, and even one person on GAF saying that they will not vote for anyone but Sanders. The people who subscribe to the "same thing, both sides" seems to be more prevalent on the left than on the right, it seems. Am I over thinking this?
Butthurt Sanders crazies are impossible to deal with. In some ways they are just as delusional as tea party types on the right.
It reminds me a lot of 2000 when some liberals foolishly claimed Gore and Bush were both "more of the same".
The talking points eerily mirror each other. I assume most will get over pouting about it by the time the convention hits. At least one would hope.
Those people are stupid absolutely will vote for Clinton when it comes down to general election.
They were saying the same thing in 08... the hillary supporters would faction into "pumas" and wreak havoc at the convention and blahblah... the party was a lot more divided back then and nothing substantial came of it
PhoenixDark
Banned
Minorities also aren't supporting him (btw I think he at least deserves a chance with them, given his record is better than Hillary's in terms of criminal justice/civil rights/etc).
I like Sanders and will vote for him in the primary but his supporters are annoying as fuck. But then again I'd imagine a neutral democrat might have said the same thing about Obama supporters in 2007. At that time there was a lot of "I'd vote for Obama but if Hillary gets the nomination I won't vote" sentiment, and I sense it again with Sanders. That shit is dangerous.
Big difference being Obama fans weren't proclaiming Obama would win while down nationally 40-50 points Summer of 2007. It was never that absurdely lopsided in that election, especially by this point.
There wasn't the air of making incredibly irrational predictions on that scale.
Once the primaries kicked off Obama and Hillary were never in these crazy 40% something differences and they kept pace with each other in fund raising. It was a lot more realistic and this less of coming across as deranged wackos predicting Obama would win unlike Sanders types.
Some Sanders types like to imagine Obama was this far behind but once the candidates announced they were running it was always a horse race in polling and fund raising.
In Summer 2007 primary polling consistently had Hillary in the 30s, Obama in the 20s. Vastly different than what is the case now.
I am pretty sure a) it's hot air and b) it's a tiny minority of people who think Hillary is some dynastic queen sent to ruin the world by Xenu.
I don't mean to downplay how important it is for the Democrats to ultimately be unified, but even in 2008, was it even remotely an issue?
no. In the likely event someone did not vote for Obama it had a minuscule effect. Someone that fit the profile of a conservative Democrat in the south like West Virginia.
The Bernie rhetoric is nothing but noise coming from a demographic that dangerously misunderstands the stakes in this election and the election that comes after. Most admittingly will hold their nose for Clinton when the bomb drops and the choice is between Hillary and the Republican nominee.
The party will be united in the end.
The upset Hillary fans in 2008 on average were older and more consistent voters already than the 20-something Sanders types who are making this proclamation.
I think there is a legitimate fear the Sanders wackos will not show up in decent enough numbers.
At least the primary should wrap up very quickly and these guys will have a good number of months before the convention to get over it and accept Hillary won. That will help.
I think there is a legitimate fear the Sanders wackos will not show up in decent enough numbers.
At least the primary should wrap up very quickly and these guys will have a good number of months before the convention to get over it and accept Hillary won. That will help.
RustyNails
Member
It doesn't get better than that.
Not sure how feasible this would be, but I'd love to see Hillary get Bernie on-board for rallies during campaign season in key states. Even having him emphasize that overturning Citizens and getting another liberal on the bench would be huge for progressivism's long-term prospects; only the most insane of Bernie supporters would refuse to see what a huge seachange this would be.
(And holy hell at that Trump quote. Wow.)
(And holy hell at that Trump quote. Wow.)
It won't. The way the delegates are allocated and not winner taken all after a certain point guarantees a protracted primary. She is not gonna wrap it up like McCain in 2008 in March. Expect a late April early or late May wrap up.
Poodlestrike
Banned
TRUMP 2016!
He is going to kill it at the debates.
No, really, I think somebody's gonna die.
Bernie is not an assist in swing states at all. Goal is to moderate in the general not rally with an open socialist. That isn't going to be happening. It would be causing unnecessary media nonsense. He'll get a speech at the DNC and that will be the last we see of him this election cycle I am willing to bet.
I laughed irl
Obama & Bill Clinton DNC speeches are going to be out of this world it is unfair. Two of the most infamous politicians of their time. Bill Clinton's charisma mixed with Obama's oratory is going to be salivating. You won't come out crying with tears of joy.
It also sobering how last time people were tired of the Clinton's eight years ago and saw Obama as the passing of the torch like Kennedy. The irony of it all where Obama passes the torch back to Hillary.
This is why I wonder about the feasibility. The 'S' word might not be a big deal to us here (I admit, I often forget about it when posting about him), but to average voters, it's still likely to be a bit of a showstopper.
I hope he at least gets one hell of a speaking slot.
They're saying that now, but despite having his strong view and not compromising on them, he's very pragmatic (see ACA). There are probably a lot of annoying Sanders fans who are assuming that he will run on his own ticket if he loses the primary, but that's going to have to change when he directly tells his supporters to vote for her.
If he does that; then his entire campaign will have been a joke.
He isn't going to get a prime time speaking slot, no way. It will be one of the day time ones that get on cable news, not the network tv audience.
Obama, Bill, Hillary, and whoever the VP nominee will be get those. As well as whoever the "new young up comer" opener pick is (the Castro slot last time , Obama in 2004).
Hillary got one in 2008 but is the exception to the rule, not the norm.
What will Biden get lol? and Michelle?
He won't get prime time. When is the last time an outgoing vp got a prime time slot? Can't recall a single time it happened.
FYI, I bet the "new up and coming star" prime time slot will go to kamala harris. That's my guess.
I still get legit teary-eyed watching Bill Clinton at the 2012 DNC. Wonkish yet incredibly effective. Stuff of legends.
The DNC probably won't outright snub Bernie but I do think his speech will be an afterthought. Depends on how the contest unfolds I guess. Of course, Fox News will try to make hay of it regardless: "Are Bernie supporters upset he didn't get a prime time slot?! Dems in disarray!"
The DNC probably won't outright snub Bernie but I do think his speech will be an afterthought. Depends on how the contest unfolds I guess. Of course, Fox News will try to make hay of it regardless: "Are Bernie supporters upset he didn't get a prime time slot?! Dems in disarray!"
Not at all. This is a stupid concern because he's not running third party. Despite what a lot of poligaf wants to believe, the vast majority of Sanders supporters are not crazy people and will not have much of an issue voting for Hillary in the general. The few people who won't are the ones who weren't going to vote at all anyway until Bernie got in the race.
In general the patronizing and condescension some people here display towards anybody who likes Sanders is really fucking annoying though. I'm already done going into any Sanders threads because they immediately turn to shit.
Retromelon
Member
I know we are all enjoying trumps wacky sayings but this new shit about mocking mccains war hero status is just a new low. The dude was tortured and imprisoned by viet cong for years. This perfume selling escalateur needs to shut his fat mouth
PhoenixDark
Banned
Could just be spin but apparently Hillary bombed at the Iowa Hall Of Fame dinner, whereas O'Malley and Sanders fired up the crowd.
Black Republican
Member
"Black lives matter, white lives matter, all lives matter....."
Really Martin?
Really Martin?
It is.
I read the exact opposite via Politico. They reported that Hilldawg got the largest standing ovations, Bernie had constant cheers from his section, and O'Malley showed promise.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...ty-dinner-hillary-clinton-120315.html?hp=t3_r
Politico said:
PhoenixDark
Banned
Why are you guys so mad at that line, when it's not coming from someone who isn't belittling your cause?
PhoenixDark
Banned
Pathetic behavior from black activists at the townhall. Sanders has spent his entire life supporting policies that benefit black people. We can argue all we want about a "rising tide" not benefiting black people as much as whites, but last I checked Sanders supports
-raising the minimum wage
-body cams for cops
-criminal justice reform
-voter rights
How the fuck don't those directly benefit black people? What does he have to do in order to gain respect from these extremists?
-raising the minimum wage
-body cams for cops
-criminal justice reform
-voter rights
How the fuck don't those directly benefit black people? What does he have to do in order to gain respect from these extremists?
Retromelon
Member
He was a civil rights activist back when that meant angry southerners might kill you. Bernie doesnt deserve this
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