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[Trouble]

The first debate is next Tuesday!

I better start making popcorn now.

 

[RustyNails]

Thursday. who is making the thread? Aaron?

More importantly what's the title?

2016 GOP Primary Debate #1| We're gonna need a bigger clownboat

 

[NeoXChaos]

2016 GOP Primary Debate #1| Your Fired

2016 GOP Primary Debate #1| Trumpmentum

 

[B-Dubs]

Thursday. who is making the thread? Aaron?

I am. It'll be up tomorrow.

 

[Mario]

More importantly what's the title?

2016 GOP Primary Debate #1| We're gonna need a bigger clownboat

2016 GOP Primary Debate #1| Some, I assume, are good people
2016 GOP Primary Debate #1| Who will come up trumps?
2016 GOP Primary Debate #1| America's funniest gameshow
2016 GOP Primary Debate #1| American Idle

 

[NeoXChaos]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVeVcVBW_CE&t=21m38s

 

[Trouble]

2016 GOP Primary Debate #1| Some, I assume, are good people

I like this.

 

[RastaMentality]

2016 GOP Primary Debate #1| Some, I assume, are good people

This is god tier.

 

[ivysaur12]

Knowing FL Democrats they will.

Yup, that's where I am with this :-\

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I am. It'll be up tomorrow.

More than a week early?


And lol at kasich's people

@JWGOP
Imagine a NASCAR driver mentally preparing for a race knowing one of the drivers will be drunk. That's what prepping for this debate is like

I love them pretending they didn't sow a trump.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

33-32 Grayson/Murphy without Graham

I really hope Florida Democrats don't piss away the Senate race on a Grayson candidacy. He isn't even that liberal.

LOL if they screw up with grayson.

 

[NeoXChaos]

But polling methodology, these critics argue, is also skewing the numbers. Public surveys are often conducted by random-digit dialing: randomly generating and dialing telephone numbers on both landlines and cell phones. Private polls, like the ones conducted for political campaigns, start with lists of voters. While the respondents are still randomly selected from this pool, using voter-registration data allows pollsters to impose other controls on the sample, such as calling only those with a history of voting in lower-turnout elections, like primaries or off-year races.

2016 is going to be fun again.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/what-trump-bump-120693.html#ixzz3h8lNaKgg

 

[B-Dubs]

More than a week early?

Oh good, I panicked for a second there.

 

[Poodlestrike]

More than a week early?


And lol at kasich's people



I love them pretending they didn't sow a trump.

That is a fantastic analogy.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Yup, that's where I am with this :-\

I think Murphy will win but it's still fucking obnoxious.

 

[Mario]

This is god tier.

A shortened version of somebody elses suggesting for the next main thread, so can't take credit.

 

[HylianTom]

That is a fantastic analogy.

Yup. They're prepping for NASCAR, while he's playing by Demolition Derby rules.

 

[ivysaur12]

I think Murphy will win but it's still fucking obnoxious.

I just don't get what the upside of Grayson is besides the fact that Murphy used to be a Republican? I also trust Grayson will torpedo himself.

 

[RastaMentality]

I am. It'll be up tomorrow.

Don't forget the JV debate in the OP (like Americans most likely will).

I actually feel like since most people won't be seeing it, this debate might have more crazy town gems so they can get some mainstream coverage.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I just don't get what the upside of Grayson is besides the fact that Murphy used to be a Republican? I also trust Grayson will torpedo himself.

I mean he's taken a few conservative votes (like voting to approve Keystone XL) but he represents a heavily Republican district (that he won easily in 2014 of all years). He's pretty formidable. Meanwhile Grayson got demolished in 2010 because he's an asshole (still would have lost probably but he was crushed), his only saving grace is they made a safe Dem seat in Orlando.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I mean he's taken a few conservative votes (like voting to approve Keystone XL) but he represents a heavily Republican district (that he won easily in 2014 of all years). He's pretty formidable. Meanwhile Grayson got demolished in 2010 because he's an asshole (still would have lost probably but he was crushed), his only saving grace is they made a safe Dem seat in Orlando.

He is a joke. If he is nominated for the U.S Senate. it is time for the FL Democrats to put up shop and resign over their incompetence. Whoever wins Fl on the presidential level will probably bring their party's senate nominee with him or her. Grayson is the exception. He will certainly implode beforehand. I don't even think Alan Grayson from NY could win a senate race.

Dr. Dena Marie Minning, a biochemist and medical doctor who has been romantically linked for months to U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, D-Orlando, filed paperwork late Friday to run for election to his seat in Congress.

A Democrat, Minning, 44, has no Florida political background. She is a medical doctor and a biotechnology entrepreneur who founded and runs MedExpert Consulting Inc.

A former top Grayson aide, Susannah Randolph, entered the race two weeks ago. Therefore, Minning's candidacy would pit his longtime political associate, Randolph, against his reported girlfriend.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-dena-minning-to-run-for-beau-alan-graysons-post-20150725-post.html

 

[benjipwns]

Maybe they can get Mel Martinez.

 

[Retromelon]

Vince's strut looks like he has rag doll physics enabled

 

[Fenderputty]

So if Hillary had to run against a completely flawless and inspiring GOP candidate, she'd lose?

So would every existing GOP candidate.

I love me some hypothetical Republican candidates that win polls.

With the political current climate on the right, the above might as well be a unicorn.

 

[sangreal]

So if Hillary had to run against a completely flawless and inspiring GOP candidate, she'd lose?

Right -- who wouldn't lose against a flawless, inspiring candidate. Sadly, such a thing doesn't exist

Spoiler

since 2008

 

[B-Dubs]

Don't forget the JV debate in the OP (like Americans most likely will).

I actually feel like since most people won't be seeing it, this debate might have more crazy town gems so they can get some mainstream coverage.

The JV debate will get it's own thread, that will be immediately locked by a mod due to profanity in the OP. After the lock the OP will read "Don't post porn," but I'll still be alive.

OK maybe it won't, depends on if a mod would be willing to help me out with it, but they'll get a mention. That said, we all know why everyone is going to be watching the debate.

 

[ivysaur12]

CAN'T STOP WON'T STOP

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32...1087/91f71597-b5fc-46cf-958e-e813091cd754.pdf

West Long Branch, NJ – Donald Trump holds a sizable edge in the Monmouth University Poll of likely New Hampshire Republican presidential primary voters, with a 2-to-1 edge over his nearest rival Jeb Bush. When second choices are taken into account, Trump takes votes from nearly all of his opponents, but appears to hurt Chris Christie, Scott Walker, and Ted Cruz the most.

One-quarter of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire currently support Donald Trump (24%), with Jeb Bush placing second at 12%. Rounding out the top ten are newly announced candidate John Kasich (7%), Scott Walker (7%), Marco Rubio (6%), Ben Carson (5%), Rand Paul (5%), Chris Christie (4%), Carly Fiorina (3%) and Ted Cruz (3%). Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, and George Pataki each get 2%, while Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham, and Jim Gilmore earn 1% or less. Another 14% of likely primary voters are undecided.

“The controversy over comments about John McCain’s war service do not appear to have slowed the Trump steamroller,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. The Monmouth poll is the first to be conducted in New Hampshire entirely after Trump’s July 18 comments.

Holy shit, Trump is actually TIED FOR SECOND for "second choice" with Carson.

And wow, Rubio has really started to fade.

 

[Retromelon]

Did any of you know that ted cruz is against mandatory minimum sentencing laws? I was shocked that to learn that he took a lenient position on something in his career

 

[B-Dubs]

Did any of you know that ted cruz is against mandatory minimum sentencing laws? I was shocked that to learn that he took a lenient position on something in his career

Broken clocks and all that, he couldn't be wrong about everything.

 

[ivysaur12]

Using RCP, we see that:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

Perry was in the lead from 8/25 - 10/5 (roughly 5 weeks), Cain in first or tied for first from 10/17 - 11/10 (about 3 weeks), Gingrich from 11/21 - 1/03 (5.5 weeks) and then again for a bip from 1/25 - 2/01, and then Santorum from 2/14 - 2/28 (2 weeks). All of this while Romney's numbers were even/rose.

Trump has now lead the RCP average from 7/19 to now, about 1 week. Huffpo:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary

has had Trump in the lead from July 6th, exactly 3 weeks ago. You'd expect that in a few weeks, Trump will die off, around mid-August, looking at comparable campaigns in 2012.

 

[B-Dubs]

Using RCP, we see that:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

Perry was in the lead from 8/25 - 10/5 (roughly 5 weeks), Cain in first or tied for first from 10/17 - 11/10 (about 3 weeks), Gingrich from 11/21 - 1/03 (5.5 weeks) and then again for a bip from 1/25 - 2/01, and then Santorum from 2/14 - 2/28 (2 weeks). All of this while Romney's numbers were even/rose.

Trump has now lead the RCP average from 7/19 to now, about 1 week. Huffpo:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary

has had Trump in the lead from July 6th, exactly 3 weeks ago. You'd expect that in a few weeks, Trump will die off, around mid-August, looking at comparable campaigns in 2012.

There is a difference though, there's no one with infinite money sitting behind him waiting him out. Everyone else is literally jumping all over themselves to cut their own heads off and kill their chances in the general just to get a taste of what Trump's got.

 

[ivysaur12]

There is a difference though, there's no one with infinite money sitting behind him waiting him out. Everyone else is literally jumping all over themselves to cut their heads off and kill their chances in the general just to get a taste of what Trump's got.

Yeah, I'm not saying it's a perfect comparison. The field is so different from 2012 to 2016 just in terms of raw challengers alone. And, look at New Hampshire 2012:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-new-hampshire-gop-primary

At no point was Romney ever in danger of losing it, while this is now a series of polls with another candidate with a double digit advantage over Jeb.

I don't think Trump will be the nominee. I think the changes of him being the nominee are greater than 0, though.

 

[Mike M]

I have to wonder if this "a spouse by definition cannot be raped" business from his lawyer will get any traction.

 

[Retromelon]

The dude said illegal immigrants are rapists and he's still here. People will continue to not care

 

[Mario]

The dude said illegal immigrants are rapists and he's still here. People will continue to not care

Who on PoliGAF could have guessed a month ago that Trump would not only go through with filing the necessary paperwork to continue his run but then go on to outdo himself by making racist comments and implying US POWs are losers and still be topping the polls.

Will a marital sexual abuse claim hurt him here? True or not, probably not? Just more of him "telling it like it is" and "putting people in their correct place" that a segment of the base seems to be lapping up.


By contrast, what was the gravest comment that straight up instantly killed a Republican candidate's bid for the nomination for the 2012 race? I believe it was "I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming". RIP Jon Huntsman's Presidential bid.

Unforgivable.

 

[Retromelon]

Trump knows his base better than huntsman did.

 

[Black Republican]

i still don get how Walker is high in the polls despite the weak job creation of Wisconsin

 

[kingkitty]

By contrast, what was the gravest comment that straight up instantly killed a Republican candidate's bid for the nomination for the 2012 race? I believe it was "I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming". RIP Jon Huntsman's Presidential bid.

Unforgivable.

I like to think the death knell moment was when he spoke in Mandarin at a Republican debate.

 

[Plinko]

i still don get how Walker is high in the polls despite the weak job creation of Wisconsin

As someone stated about the latest polls, a ton of people (like 30-40%) still don't even know who he is or know anything about his terrible record.

 

[thefro]

i still don get how Walker is high in the polls despite the weak job creation of Wisconsin

Walker seems like Trump's next target

 

[Farmboy]

Oh my god, I agree with Trump.

 

[hydragonwarrior]

Walker seems like Trump's next target

MY PRAYERS HAVE BEEN ANSWSERED.

 

[BertramCooper]

Did any of you know that ted cruz is against mandatory minimum sentencing laws? I was shocked that to learn that he took a lenient position on something in his career

There are actually quite a few "wacko birds" who are against mandatory minimums.

Unfortunately it's not because they have any sort of empathy for prisoners and it's entirely for fiscal reasons.

Which, to be fair, is a perfectly legitimate argument against mandatory minimums, but one wishes Republicans could actually manage to feel bad for those serving ridiculous sentences.

But whatev. Common ground is common ground.

 

[Averon]

If the only thing Trump does is expose how weak Walker's record is in WI, his candidacy would've been worth it.

 

[Ecotic]

You almost have to admire the way Trump clawed his way out of those McCain remarks, they were a mortal danger for a couple of days. He's got some talent for sure.

 

[Fenderputty]

His economic attacks seem hollow simply because as a republican, his diagnoses and prescription would be highly similar. Will he actually give real answers an proposals at the debates or just attack?

 

[HylianTom]

You almost have to admire the way Trump clawed his way out of those McCain remarks, they were a mortal danger for a couple of days. He's got some talent for sure.

It's his aptitude for media manipulation. Dangle something shiny in front of the reporters, and they'll forget about most things they're currently on. It's really fun to watch; seems like he has something new for reporters about every three days or so.

 

[ivysaur12]

I have to wonder if this "a spouse by definition cannot be raped" business from his lawyer will get any traction.

If anything, his poll numbers will go up.

If the only thing Trump does is expose how weak Walker's record is in WI, his candidacy would've been worth it.

I'm sure it'll be a gripping exposure about how much Walker is a dummy and a loser.

 

[Frank the Great]

It's his aptitude for media manipulation.

Again, Berlusconi 2.0. At least Trump doesn't literally own the media though.

Anyway, let's not give The Donald too much credit. If he made a comment like the McCain one during a general election, he would be massacred. His current competitors all want his supporters after he flames out so they are playing with kids gloves. And the media only really reports what the campaigns want them to.

Comments like this and the immigrant one will come back to bite Trump hard eventually, when other candidates go in on him and pound the airwaves with attack ads.

 

[HylianTom]

Again, Berlusconi 2.0. At least Trump doesn't literally own the media though.

Anyway, let's not give The Donald too much credit. If he made a comment like the McCain one during a general election, he would be massacred. His current competitors all want his supporters after he flames out so they are playing with kids gloves. And the media only really reports what the campaigns want them to.

Comments like this and the immigrant one will come back to bite Trump hard eventually, when other candidates go in on him and pound the airwaves with attack ads.

I keep running into this question whenever he does something outrageous:
is he aware of these political angles and making decisions based on these calculations (example: comments that are good during the primary, but bad during the general) - or is he just flying by the seat of his pants?

I tend to think it's the latter. But he has to know that he's hurting his general prospects.. unless he thinks that the usual political rules dont apply.

Maybe I should just borrow an approach from MST3k: just repeat to myself it's just a show; I should really just relax.