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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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H

HylianTom

Banned
Coriolanus said:
Why would anyone bother to do that when they can just hire Frank Luntz? That's literally his job.
Click to expand...
That could work, especially for policy specifics and phrasing/messaging. But if I were the candidate running this con, I wouldn't even trust telling Luntz..

edit: my favorite Luntz moment so far this season came when he asked his focus group: who's more conservative - Jeb or Donald?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2seEO-hQ9Jk

His incredulous "seriously?" was perfection.

===

Separate note:
The Hillary camp has released this "Throwback Thursday" video tribute to tonight's GOP debate. Pretty damn slick, it reminds me of the Obama online team's work from 2012

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=635qcb1Viuk

It's only the beginning of August, and we already have a wealth of great GOP soundbites.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Y2Kev said:
TIPS to donald trump tonight so he can own the debate:

1. Keep referencing everyone going to the koch parade
2. Whenever someone insults him, just say "they are all ganging up on me since I am leading in the polls because I am a winner"
3. Everyone here is a politician or a failed politician and I am a godlike businessman
4. Say "I was the first one to say that" after anyone says anything
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I hope he keeps harping on the Kochs.

It would be amazing to see rank-and-file Republicans turn against them.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
RustyNails said:
I want to see this Moody 270 map and laugh at it. Hillary losing both Ohio and Florida? Come the fuck on.
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It's possible to lose both of course, but I'm not sure the GOP has a candidate who can win both. Bush can win Florida but polls poorly in Ohio; Kaish would probably win Ohio but polls poorly in Florida. I'd imagine Walker could do well in Ohio but flop in Florida. Regardless Hillary wouldn't need either state to win the presidency.

I no longer think Hillary can match or surpass either of Obama's victories TBH. Her campaign seems like a flop thus far, there is little enthusiasm for her, and every week her numbers drop as "bad" stories come out. You could easily make the argument she should start out with 257 EVs (NM, NV, Wisconsin and NH aren't swing states; let's assume CO and Virginia are). Winning Virginia gets her to exactly 270. After that...CO and Iowa maybe? 285 could be her limit. Maybe 303 if she can win Ohio.
 
K

Konka

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
It's possible to lose both of course, but I'm not sure the GOP has a candidate who can win both. Bush can win Florida but polls poorly in Ohio; Kaish would probably win Ohio but polls poorly in Florida. I'd imagine Walker could do well in Ohio but flop in Florida. Regardless Hillary wouldn't need either state to win the presidency.

I no longer think Hillary can match or surpass either of Obama's victories TBH. Her campaign seems like a flop thus far, there is little enthusiasm for her, and every week her numbers drop as "bad" stories come out. You could easily make the argument she should start out with 257 EVs (NM, NV, Wisconsin and NH aren't swing states; let's assume CO and Virginia are). Winning Virginia gets her to exactly 270. After that...CO and Iowa maybe? 285 could be her limit. Maybe 303 if she can win Ohio.
Click to expand...

...
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Abinash117 said:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...67-election-model-predicts-nail-biter-in-2016



Is this correct?
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No. They created the model in 2000. So when they say it predicted every election since 1980 what they mean is they took a huge pile of data from 1980-2000 and ran a curve fit in order to make the model.

So all it's really predicted is 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. Predicting 2000 is meaningless -- that election was closer to tied than anything else -- and the other three elections were pretty easy to predict.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
On a totally unrelated note, the Social Security payroll tax cap is so fucking dumb and I've yet to see any remotely compelling argument for its continued existence. It's stupid and regressive and should be removed immediately.

Has Hillary been talking about it at all lately? I think I recall reading that she supports raising it, if not eliminating it, but I could be wrong.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
BertramCooper said:
On a totally unrelated note, the Social Security payroll tax cap is so fucking dumb and I've yet to see any remotely compelling argument for its continued existence. It's stupid and regressive and should be removed immediately.

Has Hillary been talking about it at all lately? I think I recall reading that she supports raising it, if not eliminating it, but I could be wrong.
Click to expand...

This is what happens when the majority of your elected representatives are rich.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
– October 13 – CNN – Nevada
– November 14 – CBS/KCCI/Des Moines Register – Des Moines, IA
– December 19 – ABC/WMUR – Manchester, NH
– January 17 – NBC/Congressional Black Caucus Institute – Charleston, SC
– February or March – Univision/Washington Post – Miami, FL
– February or March – PBS – Wisconsin

why so few this time and so late? both sides have significantly reduced the debate number.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
– October 13 – CNN – Nevada
– November 14 – CBS/KCCI/Des Moines Register – Des Moines, IA
– December 19 – ABC/WMUR – Manchester, NH
– January 17 – NBC/Congressional Black Caucus Institute – Charleston, SC
– February or March – Univision/Washington Post – Miami, FL
– February or March – PBS – Wisconsin

why so few this time and so late? both sides have significantly reduced the debate number.
Click to expand...

DNC is clearly protecting Hillary and they expect her to win early/easy. That may be the case but there should be more debates. It's not fair to the other candidates.

Also any candidate who agrees to attend a non sanctioned debate/forum will be barred from an official DNC debate. It's pathetic.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
PhoenixDark said:
DNC is clearly protecting Hillary and they expect her to win early/easy. That may be the case but there should be more debates. It's not fair to the other candidates.

Also any candidate who agrees to attend a non sanctioned debate/forum will be barred from an official DNC debate. It's pathetic.
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Nah we dont need many debates because they will keep saying the same thing over and over again. DNC has only 4 or 5 people. GOP needs a dozen because we need to hear all 16 candidates. Primary debates are meaningless anyway because they only appeal to the base.

The 3 Presidential debates are the ones that count: Hillary vs Bush on economy, foreign policy and a townhall. Thats when you get to the real stuff because both candidates have pivoted.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Klobuchar? More like... I dunno what the pun is, but holy shit is she popular.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/minnesota-odds-and-ends.html

-All three of Minnesota's major statewide elected officials are relatively popular, but Amy Klobuchar continues to be by far the best liked politician in the state. Klobuchar has a 55% approval rating with only 29% of disapproving of her, making her one of the most popular Senators in the country. Al Franken (48/43) and Mark Dayton (47/42) have almost identical approval numbers. What sets Klobuchar apart is that even 25% of Republicans like her, compared to just 13% for Dayton and 9% for Franken.
Click to expand...
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
@kylekondik

Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) is the declining heart of the state - Franklin County (Columbus) about to surpass it in population

Cuyahoga has gone Democratic in every election since 1972 - even voting for Carter in 80 and Mondale 84

Franklin County, meanwhile, voted against Clinton in 1992 - but it flipped in 1996 and hasn't looked back

Obama won Ohio twice in large part b/c he was the first D since LBJ to unite the 3 urban counties, winning Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton

In my admittedly limited experience, Rs start up on Election Night in Ohio and then we see if there are enough D votes in Cuy Co to flip it
Click to expand...

Interesting

Obama Vs Romney
Cuyahoga
420,953
184,475

Franklin
325,654
207,941

Hamilton
219,927
193,326
 
D

dramatis

Member
According to Business Insider (I visited their frontpage and this is literally the story at the top), Trump's campaign is a 'civil war'. Original source is New York magazine:
Media strategy has become another locus of internal disagreement. According to a source close to the campaign, the old guard is frustrated that Lewandoski and another new hire, spokesperson Hope Hicks, seem to be favoring CNN over Fox News. For example, on July 15, Fox News chairman Roger Ailes spoke with Trump by phone and asked Trump to give Fox the exclusive on his $10 billion financial disclosure. Trump agreed and told Ailes to send a courier to Trump Tower to pick it up. But, according to the source, before Ailes’s courier could deliver the release back to Fox, someone inside the Trump campaign sent it to CNN, thereby subverting Fox’s exclusive. (For his part, Lewandowski says Trump never told him to give Ailes an exclusive look at the Federal Election Commission filing. “We provided everybody with a one-page release at the same time,” Lewandowski told me.) Two weeks later, CNN beat Fox again on another major scoop when it obtained a campaign statement quoting Trump’s ex-wife Ivana denying decades-old allegations aired in a Daily Beast article that she accused Trump of raping her while they were married. "The campaign was struggling to find her in Europe, they were bleeding in the national media," a source explained. "And then they gave a 60-minute jump to CNN, who buried the story in the back of a package and gave it short shrift. Again, Fox got this late."
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It's strange to think that his campaign would actually favor CNN over Fox...
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Let's just take a moment to look at HOW GOOD the DSCC Senate recruitment has been this cycle:

Arizona: Ann Kirkpatrick
California: Kamala Harris
Florida: Patrick Murphy
Illinois: Tammy Duckworth
Indiana: Baron Hill
Maryland: Either Donna Edwards or Chris Van Hollen (Van Hollen will probably win but who knows)
Missouri: Jason Kander
Nevada: Catherine Cortez Masto
North Carolina: Heath Shuler
Ohio: Ted Strickland
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold

Yes, they couldn't find anyone besides Sestak in Pennsylvania and yes, Maggie Hassan is still TBD, but wow. That's a list.

On the other side, the only real coup for the NRSC is Joe Heck in Nevada, while failing (thus far) to field any credible challenge to Michael Bennet. Plus, there's no one who's credible who's running against Kamala Harris, Richard Blumenthal, or Patty Murray, or the open seat in Maryland.

If Murphy can beat Grayson in the primary (which, god-willing, will happen), then that's quite the lineup.
 
K

Konka

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
Let's just take a moment to look at HOW GOOD the DSCC Senate recruitment has been this cycle:

Arizona: Ann Kirkpatrick
California: Kamala Harris
Florida: Patrick Murphy
Illinois: Tammy Duckworth
Indiana: Baron Hill
Maryland: Either Donna Edwards or Chris Van Hollen (Van Hollen will probably win but who knows)
Missouri: Jason Kander
Nevada: Catherine Cortez Masto
North Carolina: Heath Shuler
Ohio: Ted Strickland
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold

Yes, they couldn't find anyone besides Sestak in Pennsylvania and yes, Maggie Hassan is still TBD, but wow. That's a list.

On the other side, the only real coup for the NRSC is Joe Heck in Nevada, while failing (thus far) to field any credible challenge to Michael Bennet. Plus, there's no one who's credible who's running against Kamala Harris, Richard Blumenthal, or Patty Murray, or the open seat in Maryland.

If Murphy can beat Grayson in the primary (which, god-willing, will happen), then that's quite the lineup.
Click to expand...

gcubed said:
Anybody but Joe in PA, he can ride coattails to a win at least... Maybe... Right? Ugh
Click to expand...

For what it's worth, Katie McGinty the former top aid to Tom Wolf announced like yesterday that she is running against Sestak.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Also, completely missed this with the McGinty announcement:

Scott Bland ‏@HotlineScott
#PASen: "Though the United Steel Workers doesn’t usually endorse candidates in primaries, we are making a rare exception for Katie McGinty"
Click to expand...

Plus EMILY'S List (unsurprisingly). It's going to be an interesting primary for sure -- it seems like McGinty is the DSCC favorite since they wanted her to run.
 
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