He could use it as a defense against that fact.
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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He could use it as a defense against that fact.
That would be fun.
I don't think this map would hold, though. The 5th and 2nd is going to get rejected because it splits Tallahassee in a very transparent way.
Does anyone get the sense that the moderators might have a bit of a hit job prepared for Trump? We know Roger Ailes likes Trump being in the race (supposedly at his instruction, Fox has given him a lot of positive coverage and air time in general) but I feel like the moderators, especially Wallace, might have a series of questions for Trump to throw him off or tee up other candidates to unload on him.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
What else does he need to prepare for? He can just say whatever sounds right and continue to rely on his voters not caring that all the fact checkers will be calling him a lier on Friday.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
My concern is that it's going be everyone in building vs. Trump and even he can't handle that.
If it's a pile-on or some sort of moderator ambush against Trump, I'll be dancing in my living room. He'd get to point out that these Washington insider "losers" are ganging-up on him - an argument that many GOP primary voters are quite open to.
If he loses support as a result of such an ambush, there's always the chance that he'll be convinced that the party "treated him unfairly" during this process.. which resurrects his threat to run independently.
As far as I'm concerned, the worst possible outcome tomorrow night is that he comes off looking lackluster through no fault but his own. It's the boring, unhelpful outcome.
I like this article on Trumps crazy immigration policy.
http://theweek.com/articles/569970/donald-trumps-immigration-policy-insane-but-least
More at the link. It's true, he is at least providing concrete concepts for voters instead of vague ideas of how to solve issue, as insane as they may be.
http://theweek.com/articles/569970/donald-trumps-immigration-policy-insane-but-least
More at the link. It's true, he is at least providing concrete concepts for voters instead of vague ideas of how to solve issue, as insane as they may be.
Avon Barksdale
Member
I read that Bernie Sanders is going to speak at Liberty University of all places.
How do you remember all these people
Abinash117
Member
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...5c2bdc6e4b0f1cbf1e3bd63?kvcommref=mostpopular
I guess he will make a religious argument for some policies? I think that would be pretty smart, but I don't know how this would pan out. I don't see him doing well with this.
speculawyer
Member
What happened to the 50 state strategy?
speculawyer
Member
He's a brave man.
Then again, he's a jew out there telling people that they should help the poor and help the sick and that collecting massive amounts of wealth is not the goal.
If any of them have been paying attention, they should recognize that kind of talk.
I'm sitting in a McDonald's sobering up before I drive home and there's these old white people arguing about if Donald Trump is gonna be their guy or not. They're talking about people creating their own facts in the same breath as praising Trump for telling the truth. This is the highest comedy I've ever seen, I wish I could tape this and put it in the OP of the debate thread.
Retromelon
Member
Do you know what it feels like when you realize that you've been eating your mcfish sandwich slower because a little richard song started playing over the speakers thats much higher quality than what you could rip off of youtube
What is my life
What is my life
JesseEwiak
Member
There was a perfectly respectable, decently funded (as much as a Mississippi Democrat can be) front runner, but she was a woman, and unfortunately, it's Mississippi.
Black Mamba
Member
And now I will never look at you with the same fondness I once did.
Why break my heart, B-dubs? We were so tight...
Man, I was like four or five beers in and McDonald's is all that's open that time of night. I'd have gone to Shake Shack if it was still open, but they close at 11. I had no choice. Them greasy burgers were calling my name.
RustyNails
Member
Yeah, he should be eating at buffalo wild wings.
They're closed too! What am I supposed to do when them greasy burgers are calling my name and I'm five beers in on a Wednesday? I had no choice!
Please believe me! Please believe me!
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'm the type of person who develops an encyclopedic knowledge of things that interest me.
Retromelon
Member
Black Mamba
Member
If you're under 25, I'll let this transgression pass.
At least we have Jack in the Box's awfully greasy tacos. Of course, we also have taco trucks and other things open till 2am!
(true story, haven't had a McD burger in maybe a decade).
Retromelon
Member
I can only do that with pokemon, and even that has started to fade. Like wtf is a mienshao
Aaron Strife
Banned
Just to put the Florida redistricting case in perspective, assuming these are finalized there are now 217 Obama 2012 districts in the country.
Virginia redistricting will probably add another one to that tally.
We neeeeeed those coattails in 2016.
Virginia redistricting will probably add another one to that tally.
We neeeeeed those coattails in 2016.
How many more maps need to be thrown out in order for the Democrats to gain enought to dent into the House majority?
FL & VA are being redrawn. OH is on the ballot I think. What about MI, PA & NC?
Aaron Strife
Banned
Here's a good starting point.
Ohio and Michigan are the big prizes. Democrats could also stand to push for something tougher in Florida.
Stephen Wolf also mentions Utah, Arkansas, Nebraska, and Missouri as targets although the effect would be far more minimal. Create a safe Salt Lake City-based district in Utah, a possible swing district in Arkansas, shore up Ashford in Nebraska and prevent one of our two Missouri seats from being eliminated in the next round of redistricting.
Pennsylvania we'll have to hold out hope that Wolf wins a second term, forcing a compromise map. Not really anything that can be done in North Carolina - the governor can't veto redistricting maps, and sure enough the GOP gerrymandered the state into oblivion after 2010.
And of course, all of this wouldn't pan out until the 2022 elections. Just in time to give Hillary a trifecta.
Chuck Todd had a sad today (or was it yesterday?). He's very depressed someone like Donald Trump is tainting the honor of the Republican Party.
And you guys actually liked this goober back in 2008? Sheesh...
We're all good people here. If B-Dubs had to go to McDonalds, I believe him when he says he had no choice. I'm pretty sure we've all been there.
And you guys actually liked this goober back in 2008? Sheesh...
We're all good people here. If B-Dubs had to go to McDonalds, I believe him when he says he had no choice. I'm pretty sure we've all been there.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I feel his pain. Republicans had one of the strongest lineups of all time and Trump had to come and ruin it.
Retromelon
Member
Numerous = strength lol
Reagan in 76 and 80 is the strongest republican line up, almost unseated a sitting pres for his own party's nomination. Dude was a force of nature. Meanwhile we've got pillsbury doughboy cruz, el "women's health is overfunded, replace health care with iwatches" jebe and captain combover aka donald trump
Reagan in 76 and 80 is the strongest republican line up, almost unseated a sitting pres for his own party's nomination. Dude was a force of nature. Meanwhile we've got pillsbury doughboy cruz, el "women's health is overfunded, replace health care with iwatches" jebe and captain combover aka donald trump
And_Gignac
Member
Black Mamba
Member
43-39 in not a statistical tie.
Within the margin of error is NOT a statistical tie.
The above poll translates to "Clinton has over an 80% chance of winning the Primary if it was held today," which is NOT a statistical tie.
And it's Gravis. And it has Warren as an option, which is stupid.
And_Gignac
Member
Thats the wording another poll, showing a +8 points advantage for Clinton, used. So thats why I used it too.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...finds-sanders-in-statistical-tie-with-clinton
I would like to presume Elizabeth supporters are more Bernie leaning than Clinton leaning, too.
Black Mamba
Member
The media not understanding how math works doesn't make them right. They're wrong. In fact, they're really fucking wrong there.
In that poll, she has a 95% chance of winning. By definition, her losing, would be an outlier.
What you have to understand is that 43-39 could also be 48-34.
The media does this all the time because they want people to pay attention. Leading by 8 with 5% MoE does not mean a tie. That's not how the statistics work. You have to find the probability of being ahead when you are +X ahead according to a poll.
I don't blame you. People here did the same thing in 2012. The media is to blame for intentionally misleading people.
The whole poll makes no sense. According to the poll, Hillary is only ahead because she's winning the GOP vote in the Dem primary. Okay...
Why are they polling so many Republicans for the Dem Primary, anyway? And Biden's voters go to Hillary. I actually think a lot of Warren's does too, but maybe less so in NH.
The other poll you posted makes more sense.
FTR, NH is Bernie's best chance at winning a state. But I just get annoyed by the media portrayal of every fucking poll as a "statistical tie" when it isn't. 4% is actually a substantial lead even if you believe it to be that small.
edit: That Gravis poll is so wonky. It clearly only asked 6 total Democrats about the GOP primary but they definitely asked a significant number of GOPers about the Dem primary. Why would they do that???
edit x 2: holy shit! According to that Gravis poll, members of the tea party in NH approve Obama by a 95-2 margin. Non-tea partiers disapprove 92-7. Yet, somehow, Obama's approval is 41-51 and total Tea Partiers are 11% of the respondents.
Math does not compute at all.
Slight prediction time: I think the republican primary will come down to Bush and Walker with the most delegates and fighting for the nomination until just before the convention with 2 nothing candidates like Jindal or Huckabee staying in for no reason. Big conservative cash is going to go to Walker but Bush and GOP establishment heavies will push Bush through (along with his huge war chest).
Abinash117
Member
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...67-election-model-predicts-nail-biter-in-2016
Is this correct?
I think Donald trump will be willing to stick around foe awhile during the primaries. It is possible he can do well in the primaries, but he would need to put a lot of money in it. He already has a lot of supporter from voters, if he actually takes the campaign more seriously he could have a decent chance. The establishment seems to accept Bush, but republican voters don't at all or just barely. I wonder if Republicans is going to stay at home.
Is this correct?
I think Donald trump will be willing to stick around foe awhile during the primaries. It is possible he can do well in the primaries, but he would need to put a lot of money in it. He already has a lot of supporter from voters, if he actually takes the campaign more seriously he could have a decent chance. The establishment seems to accept Bush, but republican voters don't at all or just barely. I wonder if Republicans is going to stay at home.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Probably, but it changes from month to month. It doesn't mean too much this far out.
I've whipped up that 270-268 map several times now. Kerry+NM+NV+VA and Hillary (Bernie? lol) is in.
Jack Remington
Banned
Hillary gets 300+ IMO.
She isn't losing both Ohio and Florida and will probably take them both tbh.
She isn't losing both Ohio and Florida and will probably take them both tbh.
Coriolanus
Banned
Fanficcing some stuff, but... Is there any reason to believe that Hillary would fare well against Trump in a debate?
Yes, i understand that right now she'd curbstomp the shite outta him, with good reason. Wondering mostly how hard it would be for him to make her commit a huge gaffe.
Yes, i understand that right now she'd curbstomp the shite outta him, with good reason. Wondering mostly how hard it would be for him to make her commit a huge gaffe.
That Moody's report reaffirms that Hillary is not invincible.
It can change month to month but I'm surprised they have it as a nail biter, even this far out. Hillary should have at least 300 EV's.
The GOP is making a lot of noise, some of it sticks and a lot doesn't -- Hillary isn't doing much of anything.
It can change month to month but I'm surprised they have it as a nail biter, even this far out. Hillary should have at least 300 EV's.
The GOP is making a lot of noise, some of it sticks and a lot doesn't -- Hillary isn't doing much of anything.
I'm still sticking to my "somewhere around 300" guess for now. The theory of third term fatigue is hard for me to get past, and Hillary is a so-so candidate. Obama won almost all of the swing states, so I'm guessing she'll drop two or three (in addition to the one or two he lost in 2012).
PlayALLtheGames
Banned
There was a clip yesterday of Chuck Todd asking Trump about the black lives matter campaign and whether police brutality was a crisis and Trump said yes it's a crisis (at least he admitted it) but that it's a double crisis because we also need cops since "crime is rampant" and he's a "big person" who is into preventing crime. It was just a mess of a response that was factually inaccurate and dumb overall. Just further proves Trump's understanding of the issues is on par with a teenager who thinks he knows more than he does. Total chump.
A general election debate against Hillary (who was a very good debater in 2008) is a totally different environment than a Fox News-hosted Republican primary debate. Trump's current tactics would backfire.
TIPS to donald trump tonight so he can own the debate:
1. Keep referencing everyone going to the koch parade
2. Whenever someone insults him, just say "they are all ganging up on me since I am leading in the polls because I am a winner"
3. Everyone here is a politician or a failed politician and I am a godlike businessman
4. Say "I was the first one to say that" after anyone says anything
1. Keep referencing everyone going to the koch parade
2. Whenever someone insults him, just say "they are all ganging up on me since I am leading in the polls because I am a winner"
3. Everyone here is a politician or a failed politician and I am a godlike businessman
4. Say "I was the first one to say that" after anyone says anything
Coriolanus
Banned
The logic i'm going with is, assuming that he remains impervious to gaffes (heck, thrives on them), that Trump can do his schtick without fear of losing votes, thus being focused on trying to make Hill Hate spike to entirely new heights. Dude wouldn't play for votes, but for making the average voter think that both candidates are terrible and it's better to stay at home.
Just from reading Breitbart, FreeRepublic, RedState, etc.. I wouldn't be shocked if he hammers away on #2 & #3. There are a lot of folks who seem to think that 2008 and especially 2012 were eminently winnable elections that "The Establishment" blew. So his charge of them being insider/loser/prototypical-politicians seems to have some potency.
===
And an idea for a book that the tinfoil hat crowd might like:
I've always wondered how easy it would be for a wealthy political outsider to study a party base's thought patterns, speech habits, policy preferences (learning these by researching online forums, reading books from that end of the spectrum, etc).. and then jump into a race, using this knowledge to pander like crazy to the primary electorate. It could be a really fun story.
Coriolanus
Banned
Why would anyone bother to do that when they can just hire Frank Luntz? That's literally his job.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
The sad part is his debate strategy probably does consist of those--and only those--tips.
Trump is more likely to commit a campaign killing gaffe on himself than anything else. Not just one, but multiple. The only reason he stands a chance tonight is that the general electorate has no say in the winner of this debate, only republicans do.
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