Basileus777
Member
This is an argument for Jeb Bush weathering the storm, not so much for someone lower in the polls turning things around. Rubio isn't equivalent to Romney in 2012.
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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This is an argument for Jeb Bush weathering the storm, not so much for someone lower in the polls turning things around. Rubio isn't equivalent to Romney in 2012.
Roland_Gunner
Member
If Fiorina can stay in the top 5 or so tons of libertarian Silicon Valley money will come to her. I also think the other candidates will be leery of getting a fight with the only female in the field.
RustyNails
Member
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Based on what? The guy has offended nearly every offendable group on the GOP side and is getting stronger.
Unless we see a major scandal, I'm not sure what would make any of these other candidates overtake him.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
If all the non-Cruz voters (Cruz voters will obviously go to Trump) head to Jeb, he'll overtake Trump. I'm not certain that Carson voters or Florina voters prefer Jeb over Trump though.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I believe Carson's voting block is massively evangelical, and Trump leads with evangelicals right now.
I just think the anti-establishment movemrnt is big enough now to where they'll carry Trump to the nomination. I mean, the top 2 guys are anti-establishment guys. Over 40% of GOP voters want a non-lifetime politician. That's crazy high.
RustyNails
Member
2016 RCP GOP polling average
I think Bush is still the leader if Trump falls, going by the averages so far.
I think Bush is still the leader if Trump falls, going by the averages so far.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
2016 RCP GOP polling average
I think Bush is still the leader if Trump falls, going by the averages so far.
I agree with this. People need to remember he has a ton of money. A TON. We haven't even really hit the ad campaign yet, either.
Oh god, I want to see what that looks like.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Does Carson have SuperPAC money?
Trump has moved out of blowout territory vs. Clinton.
Clinton 47
Trump 42
Clinton 42
Bush 44
Clinton 44
Rubio 46
Clinton 47
Fiorina 40
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/08/16/fox-news-poll-shakeup-in-gop-field-after-first-debate-sanders-gains-on-clinton/?intcmp=hplnws
Clinton 47
Trump 42
Clinton 42
Bush 44
Clinton 44
Rubio 46
Clinton 47
Fiorina 40
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/08/16/fox-news-poll-shakeup-in-gop-field-after-first-debate-sanders-gains-on-clinton/?intcmp=hplnws
Yeah, that felt inevitable the more popular he became.
Jack Remington
Banned
I'm tempted to say LOL Fox News, but how accurate have their polls been, historically?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If it's anywhere near as exciting as he was in the debate, then he's go...*falls asleep*
This is a huge problem for the GOP. Their best choice may end up being Trump as the nominee.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I do think Trump is more electable than any of the establishment.
Bush/Walker/Rubio: All hate women to an extreme extent.
Bush/Rubio: Hated by the far right.
Bush/Walker: Incredibly dumb with obviously bad foreign policy ideas and both have the personality and speaking skills of dry paint.
Bush: Has the W's stigma with him.
Walker: Crook.
Bush/Walker/Rubio: All hate women to an extreme extent.
Bush/Rubio: Hated by the far right.
Bush/Walker: Incredibly dumb with obviously bad foreign policy ideas and both have the personality and speaking skills of dry paint.
Bush: Has the W's stigma with him.
Walker: Crook.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
McGovern did, but that's about it.
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/public-perspective/ppscan/112/112010.pdf
Abinash117
Member
In the Fox news poll Hillary seems to be losing mainly white voters.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0
They had an R+2.6 lean in 2012, though it's worth noting that most polls had an R lean in 2012.
That poll is bad for Hillary. Within 5 of that joker? I guess she won't be blowing Trump out the water. I saw a Missouri poll that had Trump leading HIllary by 9. The country is more polarized then I thought.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Trump's lead increases to +17 without Carson according to that Fox News poll. Without Carson it's Trump 28%, Cruz 11%, Bush 10%, Walker 7%.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That's what I figured. Trump is bizarrely drawing evangelicals. Never understand why people argue that Carson's voters would go to Walker. Makes no sense at all.
I'd be fine with just banning political campaign ads completely.
Package that with banning ads for medicine like every other country has and TV would probably have ratings skyrocket.
Jack Remington
Banned
This quote makes me less nervous about the Fox News poll:
Both of the bolded were outliers at the time. Clinton's polling average against Bush was +4.2 last time I checked (which was yesterday). Every time a poll showed Bush with a tie or a lead, another poll would come out a week later showing Clinton up by 7 or so.
Both of the bolded were outliers at the time. Clinton's polling average against Bush was +4.2 last time I checked (which was yesterday). Every time a poll showed Bush with a tie or a lead, another poll would come out a week later showing Clinton up by 7 or so.
This makes too much sense, especially the bit about banning prescription drug ads. Allowing that never made sense to me.
Only two countries allow it. USA and New Zealand.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Fox polls have been showing Bush doing 3-5 points better than the average since Spring. It's a total joke.
Trump bringing the GOP fuckery into Prime Time.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Romney was always tied with or running right behind those guys though.
Jeb is in 4th, Walker is in 6th, Rubio is in 9th. The base isn't having any of what the GOP establishment is offering right now. I'm not saying any of those three are down for the count, but this is rather different than 2012 where there was one obvious frontrunner and one sideshow of the month at all times.
It was fun to dream about HIllary beating Trump by those wide margins but the GOP base was always going to line up behind whoever the candidate was.
It's definitely going to be hard for the establishment to make the same arguments they made with Romney a 2nd/3rd time in a row. Base ain't gonna go for it this time.
It must be pretty shocking to the donor class at how little people seem to care about Rubio and now Walker. I imagine Rubio comes back stronger in 2020 (and he would be a great foil to a President Clinton), but still, I expected him to do better this cycle.
Statehood for Washington DC should be, like, one of the defining movements of our time.
Statehood for Washington DC should be, like, one of the defining movements of our time.
BertramCooper
Banned
Rubio was a total idiot for giving up his Senate seat to run in this clusterfuck of a primary.
not happening. The Republicans would never allow it. That would be a guaranteed Governor, State House, State Senate, U.S House and 2 Democratic U.S Senate Pickups.
speculawyer
Member
Yep. As fucked up as it is to favor a birther racist braggart, he is still better than the rest of the GOP field.
It's not even about politics. There are 600,000+ people (and growing faster than Vermont, Wyoming, and a host of other small states) who have zero voting representation in our Congress. There's a moral argument that's impossible to ignore.
Even with DC Statehood, the Republicans would still hold both chambers of Congress! I'm also okay allowing some bullshit red-leaning break-off of some state in order to counterbalance DC actually having voting representation, because it's the right thing to do.
Pretty sure disarray looks more like this:
2016 RCP GOP polling average
I think Bush is still the leader if Trump falls, going by the averages so far.
speculawyer
Member
He's not likely gonna win but he has a strong shot at the VP slot.
RastaMentality
Banned
lmfao this recap video is great. I wasn't able to vote at the time so I didn't really follow the entire primary spectacle closely but I'm really really mad I missed out.
http://youtu.be/0PCU2TYA2c8
http://youtu.be/0PCU2TYA2c8
Third Strike
Member
Great pickup for the Dems, though. I'm guessing it will be Grayson, however...
Aaron Strife
Banned
D.C. receiving statehood could easily be countered by giving North Carolina an extra congressional district. Though with how gerrymandered that state is as it is it would probably end up being another Democratic vote sink so maybe the GOP wouldn't go for that.
Puerto Rico should be a state also. Five safe Democratic districts right there.
Puerto Rico should be a state also. Five safe Democratic districts right there.
The more I hear from him on stuff like this, the larger that Bill Clinton phone call looms.
It was literally the dumbest thing.
BertramCooper
Banned
Which he'll lose, and probably won't even gain much political capital from it.
He's young (for a politician) and could have had a much easier time in 2020 or 2024 - neither of which would have clashed with Senate reelection.
But no doubt he'll get some cushy, high-paying gig after this mess, so it won't be a total loss for him or anything.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Would be hilarious if this turns out to be true.
I foresee him showing up at HRC's victory celebration election night and ripping his suitjacket off to show a Hillary 2016 shirt.
He's a fan of wrestling. It could happen.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I'm assuming he plans on running for governor in 2018 (or 2020, I don't remember the exact year) if he loses.
Plus he's probably the VP front runner at this point, assuming Bush isn't the nominee.
It's 2018. And maybe! But it's still stupid.
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