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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
You know how the crazies are saying they'll vote for Trump before they vote for Hillary? Well I can be just as crazy. I'll vote for TRUMP before I vote for BERNIE. That weakling who got his rally taken over by BLM. What would he do if Iran took over our country? Just walk away? Obviously. HILLARY #1, TRUMP #2
 

dramatis

Member
So where are these 30,000 Trump supporters in this picture?

pUuV2cO.png


If you combine Bernie's 19,000 inside that arena(The Moda center from Portland, many more outside to get to Bernie at 28k there) with Trump's marginal crowd in Alabama...you might be getting close to 30,000.

Cheebs since you're such a genius tell me where these 30,000 Trump supporters are?

Your complaint from before in this thread or another was about Arizona where Trump said he had 15,000 in a venue that only held 4200 in Phoenix, Arizona(I highly doubt there were 10,000 waiting outside or anywhere close). Seems he likes to inflate his numbers by 300%. That picture from Mobile is 10k at most.
What a sore loser.

As you can see, a basketball court is significantly smaller than a football field.

30k estimate was not given by Trump's campaign, it was given by local officials. And when you throw those stones, you open yourself to attack—who's to say Bernie actually had 28k attendees? Perhaps his campaign is inflating the numbers. After all, I only see 19k. (I highly doubt there were 9000 waiting outside or anywhere close.)

Come back when you can actually math.

Oh, and by the way, Trump has 2 million more Facebook likes than Bernie Sanders. I guess we know who will win a Trump vs. Bernie election! We're on the road to a classy and luxurious America.

So what exactly did the 1996 Welfare reform do? I read up on it a bit on Wikipedia and it doesn't seem all bad.
A basic Google yields:

How Bill Clinton's Welfare Reform Created a System Rife with Racial Biases
Holland: One of the central provisions of welfare reform was replacing the federal welfare system established during the New Deal with a block grant program which gave the states the ability to design their own programs. You wrote that state officials implemented their policies in ways that “proved remarkably sensitive to racial differences.” Can you explain that finding?

Soss: After welfare reform passed, the federal government said [to the states], “Here are a bunch of goals we want to accomplish. We want, first and foremost, for you to put people to work, and we want to discourage childbirth, and we want to promote marriage… You’re now free to figure out how to do these things.”

What happened was pretty remarkable… What you see in this crucial period of recreating the system is that pretty much the only thing we could find that really drove one policy decision after another was the percentage of minority recipients on the welfare rolls at the time.

In other words, people had become so focused on racial issues that race really drove the patterning. They were not necessarily conscious of it; it was race-coded and below the radar for most people. But all of the states with more African-Americans on the welfare rolls chose tougher rules. And when you add those different rules up, what we found was that even though the Civil Rights Act prevents the government from creating different programs for black and white recipients, when states choose according to this pattern, it ends up that large numbers of African-Americans get concentrated in the states with the toughest rules, and large numbers of white recipients get concentrated in the states with the more lenient rules.

So state freedom to make these different choices became the mechanism for recreating a racially biased system across the states, where the toughness of the rules you confronted really depended on your racial characteristics.

Clinton Touts Welfare Reform. Here’s How It Failed.
But while welfare reform may have initially reduced poverty, it left those still living at that income level worse off than they were before, reaching fewer of them and giving those it did reach less. And our poverty rates didn’t stay low. When they began to rise again, the program couldn’t offer them the support it used to. The recession has been a crystal clear, and incredibly painful, demonstration of this fact.

Like all complicated legislation it probably did some good things and some bad things.
 
ErasureAcer
Fantasies Not Based In Reality

ErasureAcer
Kucinich's Got This

So what exactly did the 1996 Welfare reform do? I read up on it a bit on Wikipedia and it doesn't seem all bad.

like most of Clinton's reform bills, it's like that Nation article says:

welfare reform was maybe doing objectively good things, on net, in the short run, but it's kinda kneecapped the federal government's ability to reduce poverty in the long run

kind of like how derivative deregulation might've had a couple objectively good things going for it that he could point to at first, right up until it broke the finance sector
 
So what exactly did the 1996 Welfare reform do? I read up on it a bit on Wikipedia and it doesn't seem all bad.

There were some good aspects to the '96 reforms but they turned a lot of aid into block grants that have allowed states to divert welfare money to other purposes. So the poor in those states are receiving less support than they should.
 

Diablos

Member
Walker is so stupid and has zero charisma. I'm not sure how the people of a traditionally progressive state actually permitted him to govern it...
 

RDreamer

Member
Walker is so stupid and has zero charisma. I'm not sure how the people of a traditionally progressive state actually permitted him to govern it...

Because those progressive people are young and stupid also, which means they don't really vote in midterms and especially don't vote if the choice doesn't energize them at all. Also Walker came in on the massive wave that ousted Feingold for Ron Johnson, too.

Walker's an idiot, but small state politics isn't quite so discerning.

I do give his campaign credit though for the genius of flipping what the recall was all about. (and giving the democrats credit for fucking the entire thing up and turning him into a conservative god)
 
Walker five days ago: "We need to get rid of the 14th amendment."
Walker three days ago: "I have no opinion on the 14th amendment."
Walker today: "I will not get rid of the 14th amendment."

This is a man with strong convictions.
 
Oh, god, that Islam quote from Walker is even worse in full context:

"If you're fighting a war, you've got to identify who the enemy is loud and clear. We've said it repeatedly — it's radical Islamic terrorism," Walker said. "It is a war against not only America and Israel, it's a war against Christians, it's a war against Jews, it's a war against even the handful of reasonable, moderate followers of Islam who don't share the radical beliefs that these radical Islamic terrorists have."
 

Hopfrog

Member
Trump on This Week right now just absolutely dodging questions on the expense of his immigration plan. George citing numbers from the American Action Forum of up to $500 billion, Trump's response: "They're wrong." But no real answer.
 

AntoneM

Member
Anyone else think that Walker was to dumb to graduate from college and all his higher education cuts are vindictive? Because that's what I'm thinking.
 
Anyone else think that Walker was to dumb to graduate from college and all his higher education cuts are vindictive? Because that's what I'm thinking.

My problem with considering one's opponents dumb is that... if they manage to clean your clock, as he did twice, what does that make you?

Anyway, wikipedia
Walker discontinued his studies at Marquette in the spring of 1990. He earned 94 of the 128 minimum credits needed to graduate.[10] He left in good standing with a 2.59[10][11]/4.0 grade point average but without obtaining a degree. Walker has said he dropped out of college when he received an offer for a full-time job with the American Red Cross; he had worked part-time in college for IBM selling warranties on mainframe computers, which led to the American Red Cross position.
 

joedan

Member
I remember last election when Perry announced, some Texan on GAF said that he can't wait for the nation to find out how dumb Perry really is. Cue the debates and Perry's "Oops" moment.

I remember a few weeks ago some folks from Wisconsin on GAF said that they can't wait for the nation to find out how dumb Walker really is. Cue the last couple days and Walker is being exposed as a dummy.

lol. Moral of the story?
 
Walker five days ago: "We need to get rid of the 14th amendment."
Walker three days ago: "I have no opinion on the 14th amendment."
Walker today: "I will not get rid of the 14th amendment."

This is a man with strong convictions.
Just like Bush with his Iraq question.

Also I see ErasureAcer has taken his talents to OT.
 
When George Will is making sense, it stands-out in my mind.

He's seeing the same thing we're seeing. I kinda like it when this comes from unexpected sources; it reassures me that I'm not stuck in my bubble of liberal perspectives.

And WOW at that Holocaust reference.

Meanwhile, the reactions over at FreeRepublic are very predictable..

A TPM summary of the 2012 post-mortem:
We gathered a few of the highlights from the RNC's conclusions.

1. Pass Immigration Reform Yesterday
Normally the RNC's focus is more on infrastructure and staff than policy, which is left to politicians to chart. But the party's standing with Latino voters has gotten so dangerously low that the RNC's report openly begs Republicans to change their position in defiance of the party's own 2012 platform.
....

2. Listen To Minorities
Much of the report is about encouraging Republicans to listen not just to Republican minorities, but to reach out to black, Hispanic, and Asian American voters in their own communities. The reason: arithmetic.
...

3. Gays Aren't Going Away
It's not a coincidence that more Republicans are endorsing gay marriage: gay rights has gone from a wedge issue against Democrats in 2004 to a topic President Obama actively highlighted in his 2012 campaign.
...

4. Epistemic Closure Is Real
There's been a long running debate on the intellectual right about whether the GOP suffers from "epistemic closure," a condition in which conservatives block out all dissenting voices until eventually their own arguments sound nonsensical to anyone who doesn't already agree with them. The RNC report concludes this is a real and growing problem.
...

5. Look To The States
The RNC report makes a careful distinction between federal Republicans -- bad! -- and state Republicans -- good! The GOP currently holds 30 governorships and many of them, like Chris Christie in New Jersey and John Kasich in Ohio, have been both moving to the center and gaining in popularity recently. They stand in stark contrast to House Republicans, who have more conservative constituencies and typically have been more inflexible in their views.
...

6. Stop Being The Rich Guys
Less than year after nominating a millionaire investor who proclaimed that "corporations are people," the RNC is concerned that the party has become too closely tied with wealthy interests.

"We have to blow the whistle at corporate malfeasance and attack corporate welfare," the report says. "We should speak out when CEOs receive tens of millions of dollars in retirement packages but middle-class workers have not had a meaningful raise in years."
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/6-big-takeaways-from-the-rnc-s-incredible-2012-autopsy

So how have they done in their reforms? Looks like they are 1 out of 6 to me. #5, they do look to the states a bit more. Although that seems like a bad suggestion in view of Jindal, Christie, and Walker right now who all have bad ratings from their states. They have a little bit of #3 by toning down the gay-bashing. But they COMPLETELY botched #1, #2, #4, and #6, IMHO. Largely due to Trump though . . . but they created the monster.

They just don't learn.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
My problem with considering one's opponents dumb is that... if they manage to clean your clock, as he did twice, what does that make you?

Anyway, wikipedia
Walker discontinued his studies at Marquette in the spring of 1990. He earned 94 of the 128 minimum credits needed to graduate.[10] He left in good standing with a 2.59[10][11]/4.0 grade point average but without obtaining a degree. Walker has said he dropped out of college when he received an offer for a full-time job with the American Red Cross; he had worked part-time in college for IBM selling warranties on mainframe computers, which led to the American Red Cross position.

What was his degree field? 2.59 isn't exactly lighting it up.
 

HylianTom

Banned
A TPM summary of the 2012 post-mortem:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/6-big-takeaways-from-the-rnc-s-incredible-2012-autopsy

So how have they done in their reforms? Looks like they are 1 out of 6 to me. #5, they do look to the states a bit more. Although that seems like a bad suggestion in view of Jindal, Christie, and Walker right now who all have bad ratings from their states. They have a little bit of #3 by toning down the gay-bashing. But they COMPLETELY botched #1, #2, #4, and #6, IMHO. Largely due to Trump though . . . but they created the monster.

They just don't learn.

The fun thing about this list: they haven't gotten much media coverage for heeding #5. It's not really as sexy/attention-getting an item as the others. But the coverage they've gotten on the items they've ignored has been overwhelming.

Meanwhile, Huckabee must be trying to throw anything at the wall for attention..
CNEDfctWIAAh0ZK.jpg


And..
CNGipJIUEAAR5EC.jpg
 

ivysaur12

Banned

nooooooo

EDIT: I just, like.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/21/us-usa-election-poll-trump-idUSKCN0QQ2CO20150821

Nearly 32 percent of Republicans surveyed online said they backed Trump, up from 24 percent a week earlier, the opinion poll found. Trump had nearly double the support of his closest competitor, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who got 16 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson was third at 8 percent.

Even when Trump was pitted directly in the poll against just his top two competitors, 44 percent backed him. Bush won about 29 percent of respondents, and Carson 25 percent.

32% looks like it'd be his highest % yet?
 

Teggy

Member
Trump went straight HAM on Walker today. Did Big Dog Clinton write his talking points?



http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...1747-trump-walkers-state-is-really-in-trouble

So Trump mentioning taxes made me wonder if he had signed the tax pledge. It turns out he has not but Norquist is giving him the OK as long as he stays revenue neutral.


Trump suggested he wanted to lower taxes on the middle class and said that "I have hedge fund guys that are making a lot of money that aren’t paying anything."

Those comments are in line with Trump's broader populist message, including that the U.S.'s current immigration system has made it harder for average Americans to find jobs.

So Trump here is saying he's going to jack up taxes on the rich. In addition, no stink is being made about him not signing the pledge yet. I have a feeling if he had said what Walker had said about Muslims no one would have cared (at least among his voters). What is the deal here? Why can Trump get away with whatever he wants, and what will that mean in the long term?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson said he will support Hillary Clinton in her bid for the presidency.

In an exclusive statement to ABC News, Richardson said after speaking with former President Bill Clinton and his wife, "we have patched up our disagreement from the 2008 election." The former governor, who served in Clinton's administration, gave his endorsement to then Sen. Barack Obama during the 2008 campaign cycle.

“I have spoken to President and Secretary Clinton and we have patched up our disagreement from the 2008 election,” the statement read. "I am pleased to announce I wholeheartedly support Secretary Clinton's candidacy for the Presidency. Her leadership on issues like foreign policy, immigration, climate change and economic populism are important to the future of the country."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mexico-gov-bill-richardson-endorses-hillary-clinton-president/story?id=33252547
 
I'm starting to think perhaps shitcanning the autopsy results wasn't a bad idea, short term. Republicans are essentially betting the farm on winning the presidency. They currently have control of the House, which won't disappear anytime soon; and they also control the senate, which they should have for at least four more years. Everything is in place for them to enshrine much of their ideology into the country, and then protect it on a state and judicial level for a decade. They just need the presidency - even if it's one term. One term would give them multiple SC nominees, a flood of other court judges, the chance to cripple or outright destroy Obamacare, cut taxes, and perhaps enter a war with ground troops.

At this point it's clear state republican parties won't go along with some center or leftward move on immigration or gay rights. The excuses for a 2016 loss already exist: the establishment candidate didn't excite the base, the establishment torpedoed the candidate(s) who could excite the base, etc. Losing three election in a row is a death blow but remember, come late 2017 it'll once again be clear republicans are poised for midterm gains the following year. Which means the cycle of obstruction will continue.

At this point the party is basically stalling its inevitable shift to the middle, for a chance at a short term victory. Long term I'm seriously wondering whether the party will split.
 
So Donald "I am the least racist person" Trump mentioning taxes made me wonder if he had signed the tax pledge. It turns out he has not but Norquist is giving him the OK as long as he stays revenue neutral.

Well, it really doesn't matter what Norquist says about Donald Trump because Norquist is a looooser. A clown married to an immigrant.
 
a term with biden to "supervise" obama's ongoing agenda would be ideal.

in a normal developed country that's probably what would happen but the politics don't really allow for it.
I agree, although it's more like I really just wish Obama could have another term with a cooperative Congress. There are a number of reforms he's proposed (immigration, universal pre-K/community college, environmental regulations) that simply can't get done or are limited because they were enacted through executive actions. And what really sucks is that even though I like Obama and think he's done a lot of good, a lot of that good has been put towards just fixing the problems W left us, leaving Obamacare as one of his only truly reformative measures.

The most annoying thing is that all of his reforms are fairly common sense and shouldn't necessarily require a Democratic Congress to achieve. Cap and trade was a Republican proposal, the community college plan is based on a Tennessee program and holy shit Republicans just pass immigration reform. But they can't let the black man have a win and I don't expect much to change in terms of how the GOP treats the next Democratic president, no matter who it is. In fact expect a lot of "We thought Obama was bad, but Hillary is even worse!" rhetoric just like when Hannity was washing Clinton's balls during Obama's first term and conservatives deluded themselves into thinking Bill would endorse Romney.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I agree, although it's more like I really just wish Obama could have another term with a cooperative Congress. There are a number of reforms he's proposed (immigration, universal pre-K/community college, environmental regulations) that simply can't get done or are limited because they were enacted through executive actions. And what really sucks is that even though I like Obama and think he's done a lot of good, a lot of that good has been put towards just fixing the problems W left us, leaving Obamacare as one of his only truly reformative measures.

The most annoying thing is that all of his reforms are fairly common sense and shouldn't necessarily require a Democratic Congress to achieve. Cap and trade was a Republican proposal, the community college plan is based on a Tennessee program and holy shit Republicans just pass immigration reform. But they can't let the black man have a win and I don't expect much to change in terms of how the GOP treats the next Democratic president, no matter who it is. In fact expect a lot of "We thought Obama was bad, but Hillary is even worse!" rhetoric just like when Hannity was washing Clinton's balls during Obama's first term and conservatives deluded themselves into thinking Bill would endorse Romney.

Let's say Hillary wins. What big achievement will she attempt to get? She won't have the luxury like everyone of her Democratic predecessors had controlling both the House and Senate in their first 2 years. She will be on completely new territory. She will have some political capital. What should she spend it on?
 

Teggy

Member
Ellen Page did not come prepared to talk to Ted Cruz. You can't let him use his debate tactics against you. He first brought up some anecdote she had no way of confirming right there and then started talking about ISIS. You need to smack his ass down for changing the subject and make him answer your question.
 

AntoneM

Member
My problem with considering one's opponents dumb is that... if they manage to clean your clock, as he did twice, what does that make you?

Anyway, wikipedia

Successful doesn't equal smart, though.

Yes, it makes you look stupid,but, it doesn't make them any smarter.
 
Hillary won't get any of her liberal agenda passed. She's setting herself up to really create an apathetic base IMO.

Universal pre-k seems like the obvious first term agenda piece...but it's not hard to figure out exactly how republicans will shitcan that. So what's next? Immigration won't happen. Global warming? Nope.

She'd have to dust of the triangulation playbook. I could see her getting a tax reform package done which pleases no one.
 

FiggyCal

Banned
Also a Biden/Warren ticket would be the shit. :eek:

Hillary won't get any of her liberal agenda passed. She's setting herself up to really create an apathetic base IMO.

Universal pre-k seems like the obvious first term agenda piece...but it's not hard to figure out exactly how republicans will shitcan that. So what's next? Immigration won't happen. Global warming? Nope.

She'd have to dust of the triangulation playbook. I could see her getting a tax reform package done which pleases no one.

It's not just that she won't get liberal bills passed. She's already negotiating against her own position. She's happy to show up and give a speech for people protesting in favor of a 15 dollar minimum wage -- but she doesn't actually agree with their cause. She says she supports a 12 dollar minimum wage bill that will be proposed in the senate, but even then she won't commit to even that specific number as what the minimum wage should be. Meanwhile, republicans are already not wanting to hear about an increase and so I'm wondering for whom she's trying to be reasonable with by lowering the bar?
 
It's not just that she won't get liberal bills passed. She's already negotiating against her own position. She's happy to show up and give a speech for people protesting in favor of a 15 dollar minimum wage -- but she doesn't actually agree with their cause.

Or maybe HRC and her advisers are seeing that there is at least some evidence that a $15 min wage is causing unemployment in very high wage areas. Since this indicates it would be very damaging in poorer areas maybe they just don't think its a good idea?
 

Diablos

Member
A TPM summary of the 2012 post-mortem:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/6-big-takeaways-from-the-rnc-s-incredible-2012-autopsy

So how have they done in their reforms? Looks like they are 1 out of 6 to me. #5, they do look to the states a bit more. Although that seems like a bad suggestion in view of Jindal, Christie, and Walker right now who all have bad ratings from their states. They have a little bit of #3 by toning down the gay-bashing. But they COMPLETELY botched #1, #2, #4, and #6, IMHO. Largely due to Trump though . . . but they created the monster.

They just don't learn.
I think part of the problem is they can't "learn" even if they privately want to. Why? Because their demographics don't support it. In order for them to back off from more extremist views/positions they would essentially alienate and likely drive away their loyal base for what would, I'm confident, prove to be a minimal (at best) gain in support from minorities, LGBT, and sane moderate voters who feel the Democratic party is the only viable place left for them. It would be a huge gamble which would likely make the Tea Party et. al. feel all the more inclined to do what us left-leaning voters have been fantasizing about for years now: Breaking up with the GOP/itself and forming an additional party or some weird coalition.
 
I think part of the problem is they can't "learn" even if they privately want to. Why? Because their demographics don't support it. In order for them to back off from more extremist views/positions they would essentially alienate and likely drive away their loyal base for what would, I'm confident, prove to be a minimal (at best) gain in support from minorities, homosexuals, and sane moderate voters who feel the Democratic party is the only viable place left for them.

The majority of young Republicans support gay marriage (61%) and I don't know if more than 30% of the Republican base supports no rape exceptions for abortion. I think discriminating against black people and Muslims helps the GOP with regards to voting (because America has a lot of fuckheads), but I don't think their homophobia or anti-abortion crusade is helpful at all with regards to winning elections.
 

FiggyCal

Banned
Or maybe HRC and her advisers are seeing that there is at least some evidence that a $15 min wage is causing unemployment in very high wage areas. Since this indicates it would be very damaging in poorer areas maybe they just don't think its a good idea?

She should come out and say it. And she should stop being dishonest when she co-opts the language of a "living wage" and telling the advocates of a $15 minimum "I want to be your champion"
 
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