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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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R

Roland_Gunner

Member
People are kind of meh on the August jobs report because only 173K jobs were created but under the headline there are some really encouraging numbers:

Part time unemployment is down 349k and full-time is up 435k.

Unemployment rate for those with less than a HS degree fell from 8.3% to 7.7%

Age 20-24 U3 fell from 10.1% in July to 8.9% in August.

These are all taken from Conor Sen's twitter feed btw. We're getting close to the point where either people come back into the workforce or we see worker shortages.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/02/politics/donald-trump-hispanics-jeb-bush/


In this report 82% don't like trump. It could be that they choosing Trump because " he is speaking his mind" , they are part of a Hispanic group that doesn't follow politics and voting for the person they are familiar with, are conservative Hispanics that want immigration to be fixed, specifically illegal immigration, and/or a certain group of Hispanics don't trust Democrats .


I think a lot of Hispanics have the mindset of Bobby and Ben.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
The fabled independent unicorn vote is obsolete. Remember when WSJ and other newspapers were saying Romney was leading the independent vote and therefore going to win? Romney was leading Obama 50-45 in the final days for the independent voter. The underlying data of independents is clear: they are mostly conservatives. This is mostly because moderates and liberals stopped identifying with the independent label whereaa conservatives didn't.

Dont let the pundits fool you again. Independent voters are not needed to win elections any more.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
Endorsements, big money and establishment power means nothing. You guys forget the voter at the end is who decides. Trump is winning the nomination, now I am certain of it.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
ivysaur12 said:
That's 38. With Cantwell, Wyden, and Blumenthal or Cardin, that's 41.

It's not even going to get vetoed.
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I want this to happen so bad. Fuck Bibi and the fearmongering ads.

Also I read the other day that Rouhani is worried the deal wont pass the Iranian parliament, as Khamenie said he will not interfere. I hope its just rhetoric because I'm sure the parliament rubberstamps whatever Khamenie wants.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
The hold outs have to realize at this point that a veto would be a horrible look for the nation on an issue of this magnitude. Granted, we've had our share of shit shows from Congress over the course of Obama's terms, but mostly on domestic issues. It would be a strong message to the world that we're still relatively reliable when it comes to, you know, preventing an apocalypse.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
P

Pizza Booty

Banned
Coriolanus said:
Not quite.

And yes, that is why conservatives keep going after the email thing. That and bengazhi are the only things they got, and that's fresher.
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Makai said:
Is it? I keep seeing it pop up everywhere, including mainstream sources like NY Times.
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It's going to blow over any day now. Literally nothing of significance has come from it. I think it's gotten a lot of clicks because people were expecting some shit to leak but nothing truly shocking has. I think the media has just been riding this story out for the ad revenue (Hilary + conspiracy = lots of clicks). It's really only a matter of time until people get bored of it and realize it's going nowhere.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
I think Iran would pass it; they would be dumb not to whatever their justification is.



ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Ugh, I hate giving Saudi Arabia weapons:



Blerg.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/04/u...g-visits-white-house.html?ref=middleeast&_r=0
Click to expand...
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/obama-salman-white-house-213304

There's also this
The president's goal was to assure the Saudis and other Arab leaders that America's commitment to them was strong as ever. He managed to obtain the Arab countries' cautious endorsement of the nuclear deal.

But Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia, along with several other Arab countries, view Shiite-majority Iran as a growing threat not so much because of its nuclear ambitions but more due its influence in places such as Yemen, Syria and Iraq, where Iran stands accused of creating mischief to undermine U.S. allies.

There's also a sense of jealousy among Saudis and other Arabs who worry the U.S. will slowly turn more to Iran than them — a possibility considering the influence Iran wields in some of the most conflict-ridden Middle East states.

"Publicly, the Saudis are supporting the nuclear agreement, but privately they are anxious about whether this is the beginning of an American pivot to Persia," said Ilan Goldenberg, a former State Department official and Middle East expert, who added that he thinks the Saudi worries are "overblown."

Concerns about the Iranian influence on their southern border led the Saudis to launch airstrikes against Iranian-backed Houthi-rebels in Yemen in March, an operation that the United States has supported with logistics and intelligence.

Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser to Obama, told reporters Wednesday that U.S. and Saudi officials meeting this week will look at what more can be done to counter Iran's influence, which the U.S. still views as largely pernicious, in the wake of the nuclear deal.


"What we need to do is develop capabilities to deal with the asymmetric threats that Iran poses, which are not very expensive," Rhodes said. "So we’ve been focused on areas like maritime security, cybersecurity, ballistic missile defense, Special Forces capability, intelligence cooperation and sharing."

Asked about future arms sales to the Saudis, Rhodes said he "would expect there to be continued sales in the years ahead. That’s been a longstanding characteristic of our relationship with — in the Gulf States."

Obama and his aides may press the Saudis hardest on finding a political agreement to end the conflict in Yemen, where the nearly six-month-old Saudi military campaign is trying to oust the Houthi rebels and restore the government of exiled President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi.
Click to expand...
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
"He can't seem to find his way on any given issue with a handheld GPS," an Iowa Republican said of Walker. "He's been on all three sides of every two-sided issue. For the last two months hasn't made a single policy pronouncement that he or his staff hasn't had to clarify or clear up within two hours. When you're reduced to saying 'yeah' doesn't mean 'yes,' you're in trouble. 'Unintimidated' has given way to 'uninformed' and 'unprepared.'"
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GOP insiders are fucking brutal to Walker in this piece:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/summers-biggest-losers-walker-and-omalley-213318
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
People are kind of meh on the August jobs report because only 173K jobs were created but under the headline there are some really encouraging numbers:

Part time unemployment is down 349k and full-time is up 435k.

Unemployment rate for those with less than a HS degree fell from 8.3% to 7.7%

Age 20-24 U3 fell from 10.1% in July to 8.9% in August.

These are all taken from Conor Sen's twitter feed btw. We're getting close to the point where either people come back into the workforce or we see worker shortages.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty encouraged at this point about the chances of the economy staying stable through the rest of Obama's term, with decent gas prices, good employment numbers, etc..
But the Democrats have to not let voters take this (admittedly flawed) recovery for granted. We could be in much, much worse shape.
{Hell, I tend to think folks will someday see this relative stability as "the good ol' days."}
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
RustyNails said:
The fabled independent unicorn vote is obsolete. Remember when WSJ and other newspapers were saying Romney was leading the independent vote and therefore going to win? Romney was leading Obama 50-45 in the final days for the independent voter. The underlying data of independents is clear: they are mostly conservatives. This is mostly because moderates and liberals stopped identifying with the independent label whereaa conservatives didn't.

Dont let the pundits fool you again. Independent voters are not needed to win elections any more.
Click to expand...

Furthermore, the Republican brand was so damaged by t bush years that a lot of conservatives started calling themselves independent, which skewed things. I am guessing that that's corrected itself by now.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
HylianTom said:
I'm pretty encouraged at this point about the chances of the economy staying stable through the rest of Obama's term, with decent gas prices, good employment numbers, etc..
But the Democrats have to not let voters take this (admittedly flawed) recovery for granted. We could be in much, much worse shape.
{Hell, I tend to think folks will someday see this relative stability as "the good ol' days."}
Click to expand...
I hope we get "full employment" by the time Obama leaves office.

That would be very hard to spin (but the GOP would do it anyway I'm sure)
 
P

pigeon

Banned
soleil said:
If Biden is not in the race, Sanders loses support? Weird.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the way that post reports the results is very confusing.

The topline numbers are Hillary 48, Bernie 23, Biden 16.

Of the 16% of people who support Biden, their second choices are Hillary 55, Bernie 21. So Bernie doesn't lose support, although Hillary gains more support.

The numbers without Biden would be (very approximately) Hillary 56, Bernie 24, O'Malley like 6.

Also worth noting are the 2 people (2.4% of sample) who said their second choice after Joe Biden was also Joe Biden. DON'T TELL ME HE'S NOT GONNA RUN
 
B

Bowdz

Member
ivysaur12 said:
Cardin is against the deal.
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I'm still fairly optimistic that they will get to 41. Blumenthal, Wyden, Manchin, Peters, and Cantwell are the Democrats left. The Obama administration just needs three of the five to get to 41. I can't overemphasize how happy I will be if they can filibuster this.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
sangreal said:
looking at freep, it seems trump is finally having a bad day
Click to expand...

Well, he just sided against Kim Davis and said he would accept Syrian refugees. Might as well be Hillary Clinton today.

Also, regarding the jobs number. Don't let anyone fool you into thinking it's weak.

The headline may not look it but there's plenty of strength in the August employment report. Nonfarm payrolls rose only 173,000 which is at the low-end estimate, but the two prior months are now revised up a total of 44,000. The unemployment rate fell 2 tenths to 5.1 percent which is below the low end estimate and the lowest of the recovery, since April 2008. And wages are strong, with average hourly earnings up 0.3 percent for a 2.2 percent year-on-year rate that's on the high side of trend.
Click to expand...

August has been revised up significantly in 6 of the last 8 years or something along those lines. It's a tricky month.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
And Hugh Hewitt stumped him today too:

COE3AYJWwAAkNTR.png
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Manchin is leaning yes, at least from what I remember.

Speaking of Manchin, here's a poll of West Virginia. Rich guy Jim Justice is currently leading the Dem primary and he beats every Republican in general election match-ups. Additionally, Manchin has a 47/37 approval rating. Hopefully that will be enough to hold on. West Virginia is a red state but a lot of those Republican voters are used to voting for Democrats down-ticket.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Manchin is leaning yes, at least from what I remember.

Speaking of Manchin, here's a poll of West Virginia. Rich guy Jim Justice is currently leading the Dem primary and he beats every Republican in general election match-ups. Additionally, Manchin has a 47/37 approval rating. Hopefully that will be enough to hold on. West Virginia is a red state but a lot of those Republican voters are used to voting for Democrats down-ticket.
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@DKElections
Likely GOP #WVGov nominee Bill Cole on Art Laffer: "Everything he’s said has proven itself out in history" http://dkel.ec/1M0h82G
Click to expand...

Weeeeeeeeee

AHAHAHA Lipinski is such a piece of shit.

@lynnsweet
Rep. Dan Lipinski D-Ill., will oppose #IranDeal: @RepLipinski http://bit.ly/1NfCUzS
Click to expand...
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Melkr_ said:
Endorsements, big money and establishment power means nothing. You guys forget the voter at the end is who decides. Trump is winning the nomination, now I am certain of it.
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1) Can't wait for next year to prove that it does matter.
2) Can't wait for next year when this doesn't happen
 
S

soleil

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
1) Can't wait for next year to prove that it does matter.
2) Can't wait for next year when this doesn't happen
Click to expand...
While I agree that money and endorsements matter, it troubles me to see comments like "Can't wait" that indicate you think it's a good thing that money and endorsements are holding that much power over what is supposed to be a democratic process.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
soleil said:
While I agree that money and endorsements matter, it troubles me to see comments like "Can't wait" that indicate you think it's a good thing that money and endorsements are holding that much power over what is supposed to be a democratic process.
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thepotatoman said:
Yes that it's a good thing? Why?
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Money? Yes. Endorsements? Yes

Edit: That was an accident. I meant to say yes to both. I will give you your answer. Just wait. :D

Here you go:

1)"Big Money" has always been a driving force in our society and politics is no different. Take away Citizen's United and you still have billions being thrown at an election every 2-4 years. The good thing about "Big Money" is that if you spend it wisely it can be used to your advantage. Hillary is using her big money to pay staff, organize, field operations, pollsters, ads whether negative or positive, & finally turnout operations.

2) Now do I think big money is also bad? absolutely. If you use it right thought it is great. Public financed elections would ultimately be the best solution since it removes the temptation for big money to be spent in excess of dollars.

3) Endorsements are a sign of pubic approval of a particular candidate by an elder statesmen in the party. It just so happens that on the Democratic side they count toward superdelegates. Votes that can determine the nominee if voters have had their say and no candidate has the majority of delegates. If you have most of them on your side and they campaign for you, they can influence the voters that vote ultimately in the primary.

ex: You are from VA. Warner and Kaine have endorsed Clinton. You think highly of Kaine and Warner. They persuade you to back Hillary. You end up backing her come primary day.
Click to expand...
 
S

soleil

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Money? sure. Endorsements? nah
Click to expand...
And why do you think it's a good thing that money is a big factor in elections?

EDIT: Okay will with your edit from a no to a yes on endorsements, I think it's pretty clear you're just making it up as you go. I think I won't bother asking for your opinions anymore.
 
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