Veritigo_X
Member
We can't win, please elect me!
We can win everything!
[2 years later]
Fuck this! Nothing gets done!
We can't win, please elect me!
That figure is from registered Democrats supporting Sanders, not primary voters. So, yes, 10% of Sanders voters not voting for Clinton is about 3.8% at this point.
...and rapidly rising above 3.8%.
So in 2008, the primary process technically went all the way, not to the convention but through all the states. However, it was clear for months before June that Obama had the inside track to be the nominee even as Clinton was winning two-thirds of the vote in West Virginia and Kentucky and but the problem for Democrats is that or for the second place person on the Democratic side is that the delegates are awarded proportionally, and so its so hard to really make up ground. Thats why really all Clinton needs to do is essentially play even for the rest of the process and shell win because of the super delegates.
So the Democratic race could go until June again, its just that it may effectively be over in early March if Clinton, say, does really well on that Super Tuesday in March in the South. She may build a little bit of a delegate lead and reassure the super delegates, which is probably good enough, at which case she would just be in this long slog with Sanders, losing some states, but the ultimate outcome wouldn't necessarily be in doubt.
But the other thing hanging over this race is that theres the question of the emails for Clinton, which I dont think you can just totally discount. And if something were to happen that forced her from the race, then it becomes very difficult to handicap because you could see you could still see Joe Biden or someone else get in and try to deny Sanders a majority at the convention, at which case maybe Biden could be nominated at the convention. Again, this is all super hypothetical, but its just something you have to keep in the back of your mind even if you look at the Democratic race and say, oh, well Clintons probably going to be the nominee still. So the answer on the Democratic side is that we may have a good idea here pretty soon who the nominee is going to be, but the process could still go for a very long time.
On the Republican side, the process does go through the start of June. And one of the most important states or the biggest state California votes on the first Tuesday in June I think June 5th or June 7th. I forget the exact date, but so thats a prize waiting at the end if the votes continue to go on. However, well about 75 percent of the delegates will be decided by April, by early April, which is also when Mitt Romney kind of officially won the nomination last time. So we may have a good sense of things by the end of March, I think. But Trump is such a nontraditional potential nominee so is Cruz, actually that its going to be hard for the other the other candidates are not going to want to surrender to one of them, nor is the party leadership going to want, say, Rubio, Bush, or Kasich, or whoevers left, to surrender. And so even if Trump or Cruz built a delegate lead, I think some of the other candidates might think, Well, if I can just stay in this race and deny them a majority of the delegates, then maybe I can win at the convention.
So it was different in 2012 and really 2008 as well because John McCain and Mitt Romney, despite having some troubles during the nomination process, were certainly acceptable to the party leadership, and the other candidates who were competing with them (a) recognized that they werent going to win, and (b) I think also felt comfortable surrendering to candidates like McCain and Romney because they were mainstream, traditional kinds of potential nominees. The mere fact that Cruz and/or Trump could be the frontrunners may motivate other candidates to stay in because theres going to be a big part of the party who doesnt want them to be the nominees.
So I guess what Im suggesting is that the Democratic race could go for a very long time, even if we have a sense as to whos going to win it. And there theres some signs that the Republican race may go very long as well. But there are a lot of delegates that are won in March, so we may have a good sense of it by the end of March.
Sounds like a certain former senator who knew exactly what he was doing.We can win everything!
[2 years later]
Fuck this! Nothing gets done!
Anyway, Hillary's problems in messaging is pretty simple. Bernie Sanders is running a Bullshit campaign. Just like Trump. They're running the same campaigns. They promise the moon, ignore reality, and moronic voters eat it up. Hillary is trying to run a practical campaign and people don't like hearing about incremental change and strengthening things, they want to be told they will become rich and famous instantly. They want their egos stroked and Bernie is doing that while providing the lube for free!
It's really that simple. Bernie is taking advantage of how frustrated people are with politics and promising them everything and that's enough.
That certain senator also had supermajorities.Sounds like a certain former senator who knew exactly what he was doing.
And the luck to run after George W.That certain senator also had supermajorities.
I find this handouts and free stuff argument to overly reductionist and dismissive. And I'm not even a Bernie supporter.
I think he will do well in nevada
On march 1st he will win Vermont
I'd give him very good chances in mass minnesota and colorado
march 6th he will win maine
I thought some anonymous campaign staffer or something said it was supposed to be like "we're tired of hearing about it, cooperate with the investigation Hillary" but it came off wrong.
I fucking knew that was an intercept piece.
Is that outlet anything more than greenwald and his friends ability to blog religiously against any left leaning group or person that doesn't share his revolutionary anti-us zeal?
This reads like Glenn Beck's chalkboard webs.
"For surely we shall pay for using this most powerful instrument of communication to insulate the citizenry from the hard and demanding realities which must indeed be faced if we are to survive. And I mean the word survive, quite literally. If there were to be a competition in indifference, or perhaps in insulation from reality, then Nero and his fiddle, Chamberlain and his umbrella, could not find a place on an early afternoon sustaining show. If Hollywood were to run out of Indians, the program schedules would be mangled beyond all recognition. Then perhaps, some young and courageous soul with a small budget might do a documentary telling what, in fact, we have done--and are still doing--to the Indians in this country. But that would be unpleasant. And we must at all costs shield the sensitive citizen from anything that is unpleasant.
I am entirely persuaded that the American public is more reasonable, restrained and more mature than most of our industry's program planners believe. Their fear of controversy is not warranted by the evidence. I have reason to know, as do many of you, that when the evidence on a controversial subject is fairly and calmly presented, the public recognizes it for what it is--an effort to illuminate rather than to agitate.
"This just might do nobody any good. At the end of this discourse a few people may accuse this reporter of fouling his own comfortable nest, and your organization may be accused of having given hospitality to heretical and even dangerous thoughts. But I am persuaded that the elaborate structure of networks, advertising agencies and sponsors will not be shaken or altered. It is my desire, if not my duty, to try to talk to you journeymen with some candor about what is happening to radio and television in this generous and capacious land. I have no technical advice or counsel to offer those of you who labor in this vineyard the one that produces words and pictures. You will, I am sure, forgive me for not telling you that the instruments with which you work are miraculous, that your responsibility is unprecedented or that your aspirations are frequently frustrated. It is not necessary to remind you of the fact that your voice, amplified to the degree where it reaches from one end of the country to the other, does not confer upon you greater wisdom than when your voice reached only from one end of the bar to the other. All of these things you know.
You should also know at the outset that, in the manner of witnesses before Congressional committees, I appear here voluntarily-by invitation-that I am an employee of the Columbia Broadcasting System, that I am neither an officer nor any longer a director of that corporation and that these remarks are strictly of a "do-it-yourself" nature. If what I have to say is responsible, then I alone am responsible for the saying of it. Seeking neither approbation from my employers, nor new sponsors, nor acclaim from the critics of radio and television, I cannot very well be disappointed. Believing that potentially the commercial system of broadcasting as practiced in this country is the best and freest yet devised, I have decided to express my concern about what I believe to be happening to radio and television. These instruments have been good to me beyond my due. There exists in mind no reasonable grounds for any kind of personal complaint. I have no feud, either with my employers, any sponsors, or with the professional critics of radio and television. But I am seized with an abiding fear regarding what these two instruments are doing to our society, our culture and our heritage.
Our history will be what we make it. And if there are any historians about fifty or a hundred years from now, and there should be preserved the kinescopes for one week of all three networks, they will there find recorded in black and white, or perhaps in color, evidence of decadence, escapism and insulation from the realities of the world in which we live. I invite your attention to the television schedules of all networks between the hours of 8 and 11 p.m., Eastern Time. Here you will find only fleeting and spasmodic reference to the fact that this nation is in mortal danger. There are, it is true, occasional informative programs presented in that intellectual ghetto on Sunday afternoons. But during the daily peak viewing periods, television in the main insulates us from the realities of the world in which we live. If this state of affairs continues, we may alter an advertising slogan to read: LOOK NOW, AND PAY LATER.
....Well, in this kind of complex and confusing world, you can't tell very much about the "why" of the news in a broadcast where only three minutes is available for news. The only man who could do that was Elmer Davis, and his kind aren't around any more. If radio news is to be regarded as a commodity, only acceptable when saleable, and only when packaged to fit the advertising appropriate of a sponsor, then I don't care what you call it--I say it isn't news."
Which turned out to be like herding cats since you had 60 people able to hold out and extract concessions.That certain senator also had supermajorities.
Which turned out to be like herding cats since you had 60 people able to hold out and extract concessions.
Obama promised some of this in 2008. His idealism wasn't on policy but rather believing he could change the tone in Washington and bring groups together. It was bullshit but I think a naive bullshit but at least his policy ideas were realistic (with compromise). Bernie's just basically telling people he's the answer to all your problems.
It's not just "free stuff." It's everything. It's promising a revolution, promising that he will change Washington through the people, that he will take down Wall Street, et al.
It's not limited to just "I'll give you healthcare and college and blah blah." It's more that that. It's why I said he's promising the moon. He promising to basically be Washington's messiah (for liberals) and restore order to a chaotic place.
Obama promised some of this in 2008. His idealism wasn't on policy but rather believing he could change the tone in Washington and bring groups together. It was bullshit but I think a naive bullshit but at least his policy ideas were realistic (with compromise). Bernie's just basically telling people he's the answer to all your problems.
Sure, there's also some "outsider" vs "insider" stuff going on and that he's not in anyone's pockets but the people, etc. But at its base, this is what it's about.
It's exactly what Trump is doing. "We're going to win so much you'll be sick of winning." Same fucking thing.
I fucking knew that was an intercept piece.
Is that outlet anything more than greenwald and his friends ability to blog religiously against any left leaning group or person that doesn't share his revolutionary anti-us zeal?
This reads like Glenn Beck's chalkboard webs.
It wasn't really naivete, it was that polarization had radically changed congress. He made a last attempt at doing thing the old way and they spit in his face.Chicago politician. Fenomenously realistic perception of what he had to do to take down hills. Somehow still naive.
There's a point where calling him naive for that is kinda insulting to the man's intelligence.
It wasn't really naivete, it was that polarization had radically changed congress. He made a last attempt at doing thing the old way and they spit in his face.
Wtf at Edward r Murrow.You sound like a conservative that will only watch Fox News cause they tell you what you want to hear.
The fact that so many "writers" would rather pander to ad-revenue and not thought provoking investigative journalism is why Edward R Murrow left the business:
I think the attempt was worth it, if only to prove the counterfactual.He was naive. He completely underestimated what the Republicans were capable of. That's why Hillary's "The clouds will part" was just the best thing in the world to me. But, I've got a black stone where my heart used to be, so who I'm probably in the minority on that.
I kind of feel the exact same way -- it's gone from legitimate criticism to veering into something much uglier.
How can Rubio fight ISIS when he can't even handle a Twix bar?
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/...-marco-rubios-molar-gets-a-campaign-trail-fix
You sound like a conservative that will only watch Fox News cause they tell you what you want to hear.
The fact that so many "writers" would rather pander to ad-revenue and not thought provoking investigative journalism is why Edward R Murrow left the business:
The use of this to defend greenwald is lol.How can you honestly say it's something "uglier" when most news outlets don't actually report the details behind the headline? The headline that reads "CBC endorses HRC" deliberately intended to sway you with half-truths.
Presenting only the side of history you agree with is far, far uglier.
How can you honestly say it's something "uglier" when most news outlets don't actually report the details behind the headline? The headline that reads "CBC endorses HRC" deliberately intended to sway you with half-truths.
Presenting only the side of history you agree with is far, far uglier.
Wtf at Edward r Murrow.
And greenwald doesn't do reporting he does prosecutions. Which can be good for certain things but he treats many of his subjects with such contempt. He intentionally presents a misleading and one sided picture with no attempt at trying to get at any their point of view (in fact he openly mocks the idea of doing this)
It wasn't really naivete, it was that polarization had radically changed congress. He made a last attempt at doing thing the old way and they spit in his face.
Leading members of the Congressional Black Caucus sharply criticized Sen. Bernie Sanders on Thursday for being “missing in action” on issues close to the African-American community.
During an endorsement event for Hillary Clinton, African-American lawmakers said that Sanders, a democratic socialist from Vermont, does not have a history of activism for minorities that could rival Clinton's.
Georgia Rep. John Lewis, the last living member of the “Big Six” civil rights activists, said he never met Sanders during the tumultuous 1960s in the South.
“To be very frank, I never saw him, I never met him,” said Lewis. “I chaired the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee for three years, from 1963 to 1966. I was involved in sit-ins, in the Freedom Rides, the March on Washington, the March from Selma to Montgomery ... but I met Hillary Clinton.”
I think the attempt was worth it, if only to prove the counterfactual.
Now we don't have an excuse for not knowing better, because we tried it with a guy with astronomical approval ratings and a mandate and they still wouldn't budge.
To start their own echo chambers where the won't be criticized. Hmm.
We need a political revolution =/= I am a political revolution. He's trying to encourage people to get out there and take control of the political system not promising that he's going to do it for them. If you look at his campaign messaging it's about that (and it ties into his focus on income inequality since the vast disparity in wealth allows those its concentrated in to effectively control the political system). He's not personally talking about making great deals with X like Trump is.
How can you honestly say it's something "uglier" when most news outlets don't actually report the details behind the headline? The headline that reads "CBC endorses HRC" deliberately intended to sway you with half-truths.
Presenting only the side of history you agree with is far, far uglier.
Yes, depending on rich benefactors is great for integrity.He doesn't have to take ad-revenue money so he's free to speak his mind. That's good for journalism even if you don't agree with what he says.
Because he's deliberating misrepresenting the situation in order to make it seem as if this wasn't a democratically elected process within the CBC, that this isn't a "true" progressive organization, and then trying to insinuate that these are white donors, not actual black people behind this organization?
It wasn't. CBC members were not consulted. Like, Keith Ellison explicitly said so, he's a member, he'd know.
Let me rephrase -- from the CBC's PAC. Sorry.
Says PoliGAF....
I'm sure I'm not the only one that would like more discussion in this thread then re-tweets of opinion pieces and narrative fluff.
He doesn't have to take ad-revenue money so he's free to speak his mind. That's good for journalism even if you don't agree with what he says.
I don't think the CBC's PAC's membership was consulted either, I think it was decided by the board of directors. Although they are indeed all black.
Could you show any quotes or excerpts of Sanders talking about the importance of down-ticket voting? By continuing to create a division with Democrats, and not having any other "Sanders Approved" candidates running, how would what you are talking about work?
Well, yes, the board would be the one to make such an endorsement.
I don't think I worded myself as well as I could've, and for that I apologize. I think The Intercept is purposefully skewing the CBC PAC's purpose as a means to delegitimatize this endorsement.
It wasn't. CBC members were not consulted. Like, Keith Ellison explicitly said so, he's a member, he'd know.
Lots of pro-Clinton messaging coming in today from the WH or Obama's campaign (that Vox article, Obama's speech in IL about progressives)
I wonder if that's a sign of confidence that Hillary's got this or panic among the Ds that Hillary's tailspinning.
I agree the donor stuff is sort if irrelevant insofar as that every single PAC takes money from shady people and CBCPAC is no less legitimate in this than any other PAC; although in fairness I also think all PAC endorsement are not particularly legitimate - particularly when they don't poll their members. In the UK I don't actually think it's legal to endorse a party as a union or political affiliate without polling members (although you can do it in your role as board member, just not on behalf of the organization).