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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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K

kirblar

Member
Nazgul_Hunter said:
Lots of pro-Clinton messaging coming in today from the WH or Obama's campaign (that Vox article, Obama's speech in IL about progressives)

I wonder if that's a sign of confidence that Hillary's got this or panic among the Ds that Hillary's tailspinning.
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Ezra Klein has definitely soured on Sanders and it's being reflected in their output. He's a technocrat.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Nazgul_Hunter said:
Lots of pro-Clinton messaging coming in today from the WH or Obama's campaign (that Vox article, Obama's speech in IL about progressives)

I wonder if that's a sign of confidence that Hillary's got this or panic among the Ds that Hillary's tailspinning.
Click to expand...

We won't know until the next batch of polls, I guess. Both the Sanders and Clinton campaigns probably know how things are playing out because of their internal trackers, so they're more clued up than we are.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
ivysaur12 said:
Probably a little of column a, little of column b.
Click to expand...

This article. Clyburn never endorses in a primary but its likely he will break this time and go for Clinton. Jay Carney coming out saying Obama wants Clinton etc.


"The campaigns are different," Axelrod says. "Obama’s was not really an ideological campaign. There was a big difference on the war, but Obama was not the candidate of the left. John Edwards was the candidate of the left in Iowa. The left was often suspicious of Obama because of his approach, which is, '80 percent is better than nothing.'"

"The assumption that Sanders has," Axelrod continues, "is that the American people support his positions on every issue and if you just move money out of the way, those positions would prevail. On a question like single-payer, that’s not true. I support single-payer health care, but having gone through health reform, we couldn’t even get a national consensus around the public option! It was Democratic votes that were ultimately missing on that issue."

This is a place where the Obamaites, looking back, feel that Obama's message was often misunderstood — his optimism sometimes masked his incrementalism.

"Obama promised change," Dunn says, "not a revolution."
Click to expand...
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Elaugaufein said:
All contested Democratic Presidential primaries create division with Democrats. That's their very nature. You may think that's a terrible idea, when it's so temporal proximate to Presidential elections (I tend to agree). Obama vs Hillary in 2008 created deep divisions in Democrats too. It spawned the birther movement. There's nothing unique in Sanders creating division in the Democratic Party in a presidential primary. Unless your argument is that he should have run third party because he's not a real Democrat but Hillary supporters would hate him even more for that (and they'd actually have a point in the Presidential system).
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Not sure what this has to do with the post I was quoting and my reply...

I'll be offline for a bit, i'll respond to any replies later.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Crab said:
We won't know until the next batch of polls, I guess. Both the Sanders and Clinton campaigns probably know how things are playing out because of their internal trackers, so they're more clued up than we are.
Click to expand...

My guess is, looking at the ways in which both are messaging:

-- Polls are tightening in Nevada

-- Sanders is still struggling in South Carolina
 
D

damisa

Member
ivysaur12 said:
Probably a little of column a, little of column b.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't be surprised to see Obama straight up endorsing Hillary soon. Bernie is backstabbing and angering Democrats so much that even Democratic Senators are saying this about him:
"Sanders supporters want "to dismiss the fact that none of his colleagues have endorsed him, but you can’t,” McCaskill said. “He hasn’t had the ability to get consensus or lead people.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/...sanders-senate-democrats-218751#ixzz3ztK1IjoR

Democratic senators are usually neutral but are basically giving Republicans free attack ads because of how angry they are.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Here are the districts (and the DCCC backed candidates) that the Ds are targeting this year. 31 in total:

http://dccc.org/dccc-chairman-lujan-announces-first-31-districts-red-blue-program/

In total, 31 districts and candidates are part of the initial list in the Red to Blue or Emerging Races programs. There are 16 candidates selected for Red to Blue, plus 5 districts with multiple Democratic candidates that have also qualified for Red to Blue. In addition, Chairman Luján announced part of the program called Emerging Races, with 8 candidates and 2 Emerging Districts, where campaigns are on track and working hard to put seats in play. There will be additional candidates added to Red to Blue in the future.
Click to expand...

The following candidates were named Red to Blue Candidates:

CA-24 – Salud Carbajal
CO-06 – Morgan Carroll
FL-10 – Val Demings
FL-18 – Randall Perkins
FL-26 – Annette Taddeo
IA-01 – Monica Vernon
IL-10 – Brad Schneider
ME-02 – Emily Cain
MI-01 – Lon Johnson
MI-07 – Gretchen Driskell
MN-02 – Angie Craig
NJ-05 – Josh Gottheimer
NV-03 – Jacky Rosen
TX-23 – Pete Gallego
UT-04 – Doug Owens
VA-10 – LuAnn Bennett
The following districts were named Red to Blue Districts:

FL-13
NV-04
NY-01
NY-24
PA-08
The following were named to Red to Blue’s Emerging Races designation:

AZ-01 – Tom O’Halleran
CA-10 – Michael Eggman
MI-08 – Melissa Gilbert
MT-AL – Denise Juneau
NH-01 – Carol Shea-Porter
NY-23 – John Plumb
PA-07 – Bill Golderer
WV-02 – Cory Simpson
The following were named to Red to Blue’s Emerging District designation:

IA-03
NY-19
Click to expand...

Even if they won EVERY SINGLE SEAT, they'd take the House by... 1 vote.
 
R

Rafa=FedKilla

Banned
gutter_trash said:
that sucked, what a waste of money
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Poor message with little payoff, I think Ted is overestimating his supporter's intelligence. Has anybody seen any Cruz attack ads? Lewandowski said they pulled Trump's attack ad in SC. Also, Jeb said he Jays the "You know what" to take Trump on. Fuck off.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
ivysaur12 said:
My guess is, looking at the ways in which both are messaging:

-- Polls are tightening in Nevada

-- Sanders is still struggling in South Carolina
Click to expand...

I think you are probably right on both.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
What a wild ride.

MtNxc74.png
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Suikoguy said:
Not sure what this has to do with the post I was quoting and my reply...

I'll be offline for a bit, i'll respond to any replies later.
Click to expand...

You were making a point that Sanders was being counterproductive by creating division within the Democrats and that that's against his goals. I was responding that that's not unique to him and he's not being "disloyal" or even novel by doing so.

If you want me to address you're other points specifically: Those Sanders Approved candidates in a General Election would be the Democrats running , that's generally how Democratic Presidential tickets work unless you think he joined the Democrats to run in their primary and then either win or lose and immediately bail out (and increase the chance of the Republicans winning all 3 houses by a non-zero amount in doing so). And no I can't find explicit quotes about the importance of down ticket votes though he does talk about needing to be able to bring a mandate with him to be able to get things done (which is probably about as close as you're going to get in a primary).
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Oh great now they are attacking John Lewis. I shutter to look at his twitter feed.
‏@nolesfan2011
@DanaHoule frankly John Lewis hasn't done a thing for his congressional district in a decade, he recycles his speeches and is coasting
Click to expand...

Black people:
Do not let John Lewis bamboozle you into voting for Hillary. Lewis is not the gate keeper of the Civil Rights struggle
Click to expand...
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Man, I was going through my photo archives and I found my photo of me with John McCain. I forgot how damn short he was, the dude is tiny. He was 100% on a box for the debates with Obama, you can't persuade me otherwise.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
I do one of these every two years or so

12697210_10208823936454468_3342929731301594227_o.jpg


ivysaur12 said:
Even if they won EVERY SINGLE SEAT, they'd take the House by... 1 vote.
Click to expand...
Not quite - 3 of those seats are Dem-held.

There are a few omissions though, VA-4 which will almost certainly flip and AZ-2 which was the closest race in the country in 2014. However, these are offset by FL-2 which is a guaranteed loss. CA-25, IL-12, IN-2, NY-21 and PA-6 are also potentially competitive districts. I imagine they'll add more to this list as the cycle goes on, they always do.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
DOWN said:
Does consensus still suggest Hillary as the likely Dem nominee for the general?
Click to expand...

Yup. The majority of this thread holds that Sanders will win ~0 more states (excluding Vermont). Crab seems to have Sanders pegged at ~16 tops. That's not even remotely competitive with Clinton.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Elaugaufein said:
Yup. The majority of this thread holds that Sanders will win ~0 more states (excluding Vermont). Crab seems to have Sanders pegged at ~16 tops.
Click to expand...

I've been p. good at predictions so far, too. ;)
 
B

benicillin

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Oh great now they are attacking John Lewis. I shutter to look at his twitter feed.
Click to expand...

At a certain point like what can anyone do about this? This is kind of the state of the Internet, I don't think anyone can really blame Bernie or Hillary or anyone for what people say online. It's incredibly frustrating for everyone involved.
 
P

Psychoward

Banned
I can't post screens and I know this is iffy and akin to "my uncle works at Nintendo" but basically someone I know for a fact has strong ties to NJ politics and Christie's campaign claimed that Trump was initially running to drop out and then support Christie but changed his mind once he realized he had a shot at the GE and stayed in the race. It makes sense because Trump was constantly supporting Christie by going to his events and donating to his NJ campaigns.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I do one of these every two years or so

12697210_10208823936454468_3342929731301594227_o.jpg



Not quite - 3 of those seats are Dem-held.

There are a few omissions though, VA-4 which will almost certainly flip and AZ-2 which was the closest race in the country in 2014. However, these are offset by FL-2 which is a guaranteed loss. CA-25, IL-12, IN-2, NY-21 and PA-6 are also potentially competitive districts. I imagine they'll add more to this list as the cycle goes on, they always do.
Click to expand...

Rubio jumping out the building is so fucked lol

no one helping bush though, Ben Carson not in the pic means hes in Florida still?
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
eBay Huckster said:
I'm in the middle of that, personally - the five "almost certain" named, plus Minnesota and Wisconsin
Click to expand...

A lot of what crab posted in regards to caucuses are closed so I could see Hillary doing well in them. MN, WA ans WI are definitely places he will do well in.

Aaron Strife said:
Through Super Tuesday, I think Sanders has a chance in Minnesota and Colorado.
Click to expand...

CO is closed has a Hispanic population like NV but unlike NV does not have same day registration. If NV goes Clinton convincingly expect CO to come along for the ride. MN he could win.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
eBay Huckster said:
I'm in the middle of that, personally - the five "almost certain" named, plus Minnesota and Wisconsin
Click to expand...

yeah, I'm not saying he will win all of those, I'm just as per current demographics he has at least a 50%+ chance at them. Obviously you don't always get the 65% thing. I'm not going to call any more precisely between 5 and 16 because this far out that's a fool's game.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Crab said:
yeah, I'm not saying he will win all of those, I'm just as per current demographics he has at least a 50%+ chance at them. Obviously you don't always get the 65% thing. I'm not going to call any more precisely between 5 and 16 because this far out that's a fool's game.
Click to expand...

yeah, in my case it's a "would not even remotely be surprised by him winning" thing more than it is actual prognostication

(it's incidentally why I didn't list Colorado, because it's a closed caucus without same-day party registration)
 
H

Holmes

Member
I think over the course of the next month (through March 15th), these are the contests Sanders has the potential to be competitive in:

- Nevada
- Vermont
- Colorado
- Massachusetts
- Minnesota
- Democrats Abroad
- Nebraska
- Kansas
- Maine
 
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