Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
What media conglomerate owns Politico? It's as absolute trash and propaganda.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
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Yoda
Member
Promise anything to win? Sander's message is the same message he's been purporting for years. The notion that he's only saying stuff "to win" thus implying it's deceitful is wrong.
I'd say any contest past Iowa and NH where there is a short amount of time between them favors Clinton due to her name recognition.
Like cutting down the prison population by 90% in his first year?
Maybe, though the lack of good polling in Nevada is borderline ridiculous.
If Hillary doesn't win SC with margins akin to Bernie's win in New Hampshire, then it's time to get worried.
Independent but spun out of Sinclair a few years ago. Politico is truly hyper trash from another dimension.
I'm not sure that's true. Bernie, like Hillary, built an organization in Iowa over months. Bernie has not been in Nevada nearly as long. If he wins, his ability to turn out voters will be so great maybe he should actually get the nomination.
Coriolanus
Banned
I am failing to get a hit for "bernie sanders prison population 90%" that doesn't involve neogaf.
He does seem to have said that yall wouldnt b the numero 1 jailer in the world anymore, fwiw
This guy.
I told him to PM you.
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Alaska Arkansas
Colorado California
Connecticut Florida
DC Indiana
Delaware Kentucky
Georgia Massachusetts
Hawaii Michigan
Idaho Nevada
Illinois New Hampshire
Iowa New Jersey
Kansas New Mexico
Louisiana New York
Maine Ohio
Maryland Oklahoma
Minnesota Pennsylvania
Mississippi Rhode Island
Missouri South Dakota
Montana Tennessee
Nebraska Texas
North Carolina West Virginia
North Dakota American Samoa
Oregon Puerto Rico
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Democrats Abroad
Guam
Virgin IslandsHe said it in the last debate.
OK, so it wasn't 90% but here's what he said:
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/opinion-blog/articles/2016-02-12/bernie-sanders-debates-with-pledge-he-cant-keep-on-criminal-justice-reform
Even so, he can't make this happen in one term.
The guy who wrote the book, literally, on our incarceration problem says Bernie's full of shit here.
Coriolanus
Banned
Hey, no harm in being as naive in some areas as the current president once was
Link?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Republicans are melting down now. I think they originally thought Trump was a novelty and he would eventually go away. Now that he is here to stay, they are resorting to anything and everything. The interesting thing is that they are completely ignoring the growing portion of the base that is sick and tired of the same old stuff.
This isn't the only outlet today to use those exact words to describe him, so it is clear the RNC talking points went out this morning. Notice how that when Trump finally called another candidate a liar, this is what they are doing to him.
What I find interesting is that for the first time I've ever seen, very conservative Facebook friends are passing around Bernie Sanders stuff about taxes being titled toward the rich.
Coriolanus
Banned
benjipwns
Banned
That was a somewhat interesting relationship. W. Bush was so far ahead in polls, endorsements, money, etc. that McCain wasn't seen as a major factor. Then he pursued independents, beat Bradley in the "reform" primary, and became competitive. It's then that he became a RINO (and he did shift "left" which he later shifted back from, which those lacking historical reference perceived as McCain tacking "right" for 2008) worth opposing.
In many ways, both 2000 primaries are similar to this years Democratic one. Bradley would have won states, but McCain won the "reform/independent primary" so Bradley never morphed into the thorn in the side for the "establishment pick" McCain, and now Bernie, got to be.
This book (written by political scientists, for political science-leans, not reporters) uses polling, exit polling, etc. to show how McCain "beating" Bradley among "reform"/independents was the important factor in making one competitive and the other an increasing non-entity in the primaries (even though Bradley started from the superior position):
Note: REFORM was a huge buzzword in 2000, that was focused around campaign finance reform, but also was used in increasingly meaningless ways. Ceaser/Busch use it to identify the cleavage because it was constantly their top issue despite being meaningless.
Note 2: I linked a few 2000 primary debates a number of pages back, do not pick REFORM as your drinking word before watching them.
benjipwns
Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
"This guy who has your, you Dixiecrat voter, exact values is a RINO, assholes!" being the main GOP attack point against Trump instead of the fact that Trump has no basic human decency is really something.
I think that's more about the DNC than Clinton. She's seems to be much more trusting of the established folks in the DNC as opposed to being more skeptical ala Obama / Sanders and using your own folks.
The guys running Sanders campaign aren't exactly his own folks, pretty sure one of them ran Kerry's campaign in 2004.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Bingo. It makes no sense. I can't wait for the RNC to start trying to paint Rubio as a Washington outsider, because we have seen hints at it for weeks now.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Doesn't Sanders have some guy working for him that was a part of every losing Dem campaign since Dukkakis?
benjipwns
Banned
Here are two 2000 GOP debates that do a decent job of showing the "state of things" at the time.
The first time W. shows up to a debate: http://www.c-span.org/video/?154475-1/republican-candidates-debate
The pre-SC debate after the cold calls saying McCain had an illegitimate black child, abandoned people in Vietnam, Cindy McCain was a drug addict (oddly true), he was actually a homosexual communist (also oddly true), etc.: http://www.c-span.org/video/?155434-1/south-carolina-republican-candidates-debate
I also had forgotten that reform fever was such that Bush flipped from "compassionate conservative" to "reformer with results" to try and blunt McCain.
As for the primary results, McCain is yellow:
The first time W. shows up to a debate: http://www.c-span.org/video/?154475-1/republican-candidates-debate
The pre-SC debate after the cold calls saying McCain had an illegitimate black child, abandoned people in Vietnam, Cindy McCain was a drug addict (oddly true), he was actually a homosexual communist (also oddly true), etc.: http://www.c-span.org/video/?155434-1/south-carolina-republican-candidates-debate
I also had forgotten that reform fever was such that Bush flipped from "compassionate conservative" to "reformer with results" to try and blunt McCain.
As for the primary results, McCain is yellow:
I can't remember which one, pretty sure it isn't Weaver though.
I thought Sanders was using mostly his own folks; but it sounds like he also is tabbing establishment folks. Which is a really bad idea, IMO.
I hate the RNC and all, but their advisers tend to be way the hell less "suck money cuz I can" then a lot of the career Dem operatives. (Current presidential primary craziness not withstanding). If the DNC was as good as the RNC, the Dems wouldn't lose many elections.
That's the one! What possessed them to grab him I will never know.
benjipwns
Banned
Bob Shrum.
The "curse" dates back farther. He worked on McGovern's campaign, was like #3 in Kennedy's 1980 primary challenge and ran Gephardt's 1988 primary campaign. Then ran Bob Kerrey's in 1992.
He actually didn't run a general election campaign until Al Gore and John Kerry's back-to-back.
EDIT: lol so he has Devine too. (Shrum's often partner.)
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Now I can see why Diablos freaks out over Sanders.
I didn't realize he had Shrum too. That dude is straight cursed. He was also involved in the Corzine shitshow that led to Christie.
Do they come in a pair or something? Buy one, get one?
Yeah, it was perhaps the most bald-faced bullshit promise he's made yet. And worrisome, since it really kinda felt like he came up with it on the spot without any real thought.
Unless he's planning to convince China to imprison more people...
ILL DO IT
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I swear I heard an actual and high percentage that made me do a double take but B-Dubs might be right, in which case it was still ridiculous.
RustyNails
Member
Bernie doesn't care. He has sold his soul to the devil for votes, and has become the most bald faced lying piece of shit politician to run in forever. Don't get me wrong every politician promises things. Bernie however is not at all constrained by reality. He might as well say free cars and Mars landing by 2020. Well what about reparations? Suddenly reality sets in for Bernie. Ridiculous old coot.
benjipwns
Banned
One thing to remember is that the Clinton's used their own people in 1992. Carville and Begala were not big time national Democratic operatives. "It's the economy, stupid" made them such. (Both have also been reluctant to re-enter Presidential politics, other than as semi-outside advisers.) And in 1996 he used Dick Morris, a Republican and foot fetishist.
Shrum "came up the right way" if you didn't want to use Clinton people (which Gore and Kerry camps (both long time Washington Democrats with ties going even farther back), and everyone else, have been reluctant to do) and it took Obama tapping the Chicago network to skip over the national Democratic duds. (Though then he started bringing them and Clinton people in to run the transition/White House like Rahm, Larry Summers, etc.)
The GOP "staffs" were once divided among the Reagan/Goldwater people and the Nixon people. The Bush camp was always made up of far far more Nixon/Ford people.
Shrum "came up the right way" if you didn't want to use Clinton people (which Gore and Kerry camps (both long time Washington Democrats with ties going even farther back), and everyone else, have been reluctant to do) and it took Obama tapping the Chicago network to skip over the national Democratic duds. (Though then he started bringing them and Clinton people in to run the transition/White House like Rahm, Larry Summers, etc.)
The GOP "staffs" were once divided among the Reagan/Goldwater people and the Nixon people. The Bush camp was always made up of far far more Nixon/Ford people.
A lot of Hillary's funds have gone towards her Iowa & NH operation. The whole point was to win those two states and wrap up the nomination. Simply Nevada comes too quickly after NH to reinvest and Sanders has tons more stuff there and in SC compared to Clinton's campaign. While the Sanders campaign has moved the Iowa operatives into Colorado right now. Simply put Clinton will need to invest into the primary race, which likely wasn't the plan. This is when the real vetting begins for Bernie, because now it's a matter of changing priorities and the Super Pacs and her campaign will start to invest heavily. Right now Bernie is buying more ads than her in quite a few states and I'm betting he has the better organization - since it's a lot of volunteers organized online while in SC for example he has 240 paid staffers.
The other aspect in all this are the fundraisers, Clinton needs them to keep herself competitive but I'm guessing it won't be a particular popular position as Bernie is doing town halls across the different communities.
It's simple, Hillary campaign underestimated the importance of online outreach and are late to the party pretty much, it's turning out to be quite important this election as more and more people move away from digesting their information off mainstream media.
and it appears once again Clinton campaign is in disarray despite being the overwhelming favorite and having a huge organizational advantage six months ago.
I had made a post in October and was simply referencing it - Clinton lost the internet and with it her organizational advantage.
QuiteWhittle
Member
RustyNails
Member
Begala is running the largest pro Hillary superpac. The law makes it clear that there can be no coordination between the candidate and the pacs. So Begala cant be advising Hillary! Checkmate benji
Cesare Borgia
Banned
It's a hard job and people tend to want someone who has done it before. It's harder for democrats, or at least was, due to the drought of WH victories. Now Obama's people are moving up to become the go-to campaign officials.
Shrum was crushed after the 2004 loss emotionally. There's that story of him calling Kerry "Mr. President" when it seemed like Kerry might pull it off. I can't imagine going through that.
I honestly don't know what will happen in Nevada, but I do not trust this guy one bit after that stunt he pulled last week where he tried to make that Sanders campaign faking Latino endorsements story a thing, then wrote that weird follow up article that both campaigns had tried to exploit the girl and the Nevada caucus was really heating up.
So now reading that and it being based on very little I feel he needs a Rachel McAdams gif on the Nevada caucus.
Must've not seen him.
I really can't get too fired-up/worried/giddy about pre-Scalia polling, to be honest. Politically speaking, this kind of development is on-par with that of a significant terror attack - it has potential to rejigger the race on both sides of the bracket.
Really looking forward to the next round of polls, just to see if the needle moved at all..
Really looking forward to the next round of polls, just to see if the needle moved at all..
We'd have to release something like 500,000 prisoners to match China. We're talking north of 20% at minimum.
I think that was the moment when I stopped seeing him as just goofy pie-in-the-sky dreamer but instead a deliberately irresponsible presence in this campaign. I'm increasingly inclined to say dangerous even.
The receipts were found.
But why not have both candidates in the same tweet and John Lewis in a separate one? lol
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
This has been my arc over the last six months or so: back in August Bernie's platform was "free college and single payer and major tax reform" and I was like "yeah okay I agree with those issues, I don't really know who you are or why you're qualified to implement them but you're a decent alternative to Clinton". But that was back in August when the campaigns were just getting started. I kept waiting for him to either temper his promises or go into more pragmatic detail about them as the months crept on, and he kept...not, and I started getting more nervous "wait is he really just running on and galvanizing the youth vote a platform this simplistic?"
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