There is no difference between a moderate liberal and the most liberal person, at least on questions of constitutional law. Every liberal justice, allegedly moderate or not, votes in complete left-wing lockstep on every case that addresses a constitutional question.
The distinctions between the four liberal justices on the court are less significant than the distinctions between Scalia, Thomas, Alito and Rehnquist. Stephen Breyer will occasionally join all the Republican justices on something insignificant like recess appointments, thats it. But otherwise the only difference between a moderate liberal and the most liberal person is that the former might be a bit friendlier to businesses and prosecutors in cases that dont involve a constitutional question.
This is the most consequential single political event of the entire Obama, and Bush and Clinton administrations. I fully expect McConnell and/or traitors (yes, traitors) in the Senate GOP caucus to cave on this, but if on the off chance they care one iota more about conservatism than they do about their own immediate self-interest then they absolutely cannot and should not.
What McConnell ought to do is say that if any Republican votes for Obamas nominee, whether in committee, on cloture or the actual nomination vote, then they will be stripped of all committee memberships, kicked out of the caucus, and will receive no financial or organizational support from the RNC and NRSC but their primary challenger will.
If Mark Kirk loses reelection, then thats unfortunate. If Susan Collins says shes retiring because conservatives are big meanies, then good, take your drama elsewhere. If the Chamber of Commerce people say everyones giving them side-eye at their cocktail parties, bummer. If the Democrats take a 15-point lead in the generic ballot, then I guess well have to try to weather the storm.
What Im saying is we need to treat defections on this issue like parties in parliamentary systems treat defections on a confidence vote; except this is far more important than a confidence vote. If Scalia is allowed to be replaced by a liberal, and the rest of the court stays the same or becomes even more liberal, then we almost might as well wrap up the GOP and call it a night.
The Second Amendment is gone and private gun ownership will be outlawed. The First Amendment is gone too, to be replaced by European/Canadian-style criminal prosecution for hate speech. In fact, they will stop even pretending to consider the Constitution in their rulings, on the grounds that it was written by dead white male racist sexist slaveowners, and therefore has no relevance to today.
The court will overturn tax cuts and mandate tax increases on the basis of a disparate impact on education spending (as Democrat state supreme courts have been doing for a few decades). Any and all conservative legislation on the federal or state level will be overturned; any and all liberal legislation will be upheld.
Soldiers and police will be treated as criminals; criminals and terrorists will be allowed to run free. The police will be disarmed and it will be made nearly impossible to convict criminals. Military rules of engagement will be so restricted that soldiers will be unable to defend themselves without being prosecuted, much less conduct offensive operations. Israel will be found guilty of war crimes and human rights violations, as will officials involved with foreign policy in past GOP administrations. The death penalty is very gone and so is the life sentence (long since done away with in Europe).
A property right will be discovered for reparations (in inheritable annuity form) and perpetual affirmative action for every aggrieved minority. Entitlements are gonna go bust? Thats a property right too (famous 5-4 decision), and so are those underfunded state pension funds, so theyll be paid by seizing assets from the creditors. Unpopular industries insurance, Wall Street, oil, landlords and so on will be subjected to regular centi-billion-dollar shakedowns, like tobacco.
Our immigration, naturalization and voter registration laws are to be eliminated; anyone in the world will have the right to come here and be granted immediate US citizenship and voting rights. And if its your deal (its not mine), social conservatism will be truly well and buried. Whatever federal and state restrictions on abortion exist will be eliminated, and LGBT issues? dont make me laugh. Churches will lose their tax-exempt status and be found to be covered by anti-discrimination and hate speech laws, which will be rather more vigorously enforced against churches and synagogues than mosques.
Will all these things happen immediately? No, of course not. But some of them will happen immediately. And on a long enough time scale I can guarantee everything I predict here will come to pass. The Warren Court was about as liberal for its day as the court described above would be for ours.
Could any of us have predicted how fast and how far Obama would shift this country to the left, indeed to the left oftentimes of his own 2008 campaign positions? Thats a regular pattern; Democrats (and Republicans!) always govern to the left of their own campaign positions, and Supreme Court nominees from both parties almost always wind up being further left than they let on.
Now, Im a pro-choice, pro-gay rights moderate who wishes the party would stake out more centrist positions on economic issues and foreign policy. Im actually even a registered independent (if only because of MAs open primary). I am very much a big tent guy. But this is it, the issue where youre either for us or against us.
There was a time to talk about how you would vote Democrat or third party if your favorite candidate didnt get the nomination. That time has passed along with Justice Scalia. Assuming McConnell and the GOP Senate caucus hold out until Nov. 8, theres one phrase that describes someone (registered in a competitive state) who doesnt pull the GOP lever, and that phrase is liberal Democrat.
We can disagree on who should be the nominee, but if you favor handing total, perpetual victory to the left on their entire agenda because Rubio, Kasich or Bush are too squishy, or because Trump or Cruz dont meet your exacting and refined tastes, then you are either a liberal Democrat or you might as well be.
Whether you are a conservative on fiscal issues, social issues, national security, law and order, immigration or anything else, then helping to elect Clinton or Sanders means you are willing to accept 180 degrees the opposite of your viewpoints being US government policy for the rest of your life.
End angry rant (and yes, sorry about the angry rant, but its something Im passionate about).