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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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V

VendettaRed07

Member
Hillary would beat Rubio. Debates between her and him would be like Biden vs Ryan all over again and make him look like a straight up child.

She's been reserved against Bernie because she's afraid to attack him over fear of turning off the liberal base and he brings out her biggest weaknesses. She won't have to hold back against Rubio. She will ether him and his nonsense ideas like abolishing capital gains taxes. Rubio also won't bring up speaking fees or campaign finance. He really has no room to attack her there at all.
 
O

Ophelion

Member
I had a discussion with a friend of mine about the two democratic candidates and he admitted his interest in Sanders ultimately stemmed from a burning desire for revenge against "corporations and banks" for the recession. I believe his exact words were, "I want to see them get fucked." This is a common thread I see a lot from people that are really feeling the Bern.

They are, otherwise, very rational and reasonable human beings, but this to me seems like an erratic mob mentality. At a fundamental level, it doesn't seem that different to me to Tea Partiers boiling over with hatred for Muslims. The target's different and perhaps a shade more deserving, but no less vague and misguided and I don't think it will result in something appreciably different. I certainly don't think either group understands shit about their chosen scapegoats.

Is this really what all of American politics are going to degenerate into? Just different tribes, shrieking about how they're going to destroy their chosen boogeymen? I'm not even worried about Sanders. He seems like a good man who thinks he's doing the right thing. I'm more worried about the people that will follow him. I don't really want people to eat the rich. Fuck man, I mostly just want everyone to have a good time. Everyone. Even the people I don't really like all that much. I thought that's what Democrats were down for. That's the whole reason I abandoned the conservative values I was raised with and went the full turncoat in the Obama years...ugh, I don't like this at all.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Ophelion said:
I had a discussion with a friend of mine about the two democratic candidates and he admitted his interest in Sanders ultimately stemmed from a burning desire for revenge against "corporations and banks" for the recession. I believe his exact words were, "I want to see them get fucked." This is a common thread I see a lot from people that are really feeling the Bern.

They are, otherwise, very rational and reasonable human beings, but this to me seems like an erratic mob mentality. At a fundamental level, it doesn't seem that different to me to Tea Partiers boiling over with hatred for Muslims. The target's different and perhaps a shade more deserving, but no less vague and misguided and I don't think it will result in something appreciably different. I certainly don't think either group understands shit about their chosen scapegoats.

Is this really what all of American politics are going to degenerate into? Just different tribes, shrieking about how they're going to destroy their chosen boogeymen? I'm not even worried about Sanders. He seems like a good man who thinks he's doing the right thing. I'm more worried about the people that will follow him. I don't really want people to eat the rich. Fuck man, I mostly just want everyone to have a good time. Everyone. Even the people I don't really like all that much. I thought that's what Democrats were down for. That's the whole reason I abandoned the conservative values I was raised with and went the full turncoat in the Obama years...ugh, I don't like this at all.
Click to expand...

The revenge thing is kind of gross - because while you may think that they're all rich or whatever, there are actually a shitload of people dependent on those banks/WS/that industry for jobs. And while you assume most are rich, that isn't necessarily the case.

Mostly though, policy should track rational, factual based arguments for making the country as a whole better. Does revenge do that?
 
A

Armaros

Member
The Technomancer said:
I'm still genuinely surprised at people's fear about Rubio. He's never preformed particularly well in even the softball debates.
Click to expand...

Also people acting like Hilary has not been campaigning with kid gloves in the Primary because she doesn't want to alienate people like in 2008 which got really heated.

You dont have to hold back vs the GOP

Not to mention in the GE, Obama AND Bill will get involved.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Manmademan said:
It's hard to tell when you're trolling
Click to expand...
He appears far more mainstream than he is and I think turnout would be high for him. He's no republican Obama but he's at least a republican Howard dean. I think he would do well in Florida and will pick kasich as a vp to do well in Ohio. I really think he could win. I'm surprised you are all so certain. Hillary seems to have a lot of haters!

Btw if sanders is the pick I'll prob vote for whoever gives me a tax cut.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Y2Kev said:
He appears far more mainstream than he is and I think turnout would be high for him. He's no republican Obama but he's at least a republican Howard dean. I think he would do well in Florida and will pick kasich as a vp to do well in Ohio. I really think he could win. I'm surprised you are all so certain. Hillary seems to have a lot of haters!

Btw if sanders is the pick I'll prob vote for whoever gives me a tax cut.
Click to expand...

Well.. it'll probably be a Republican.
 
T

Teggy

Member
I feel like once the primaries start they should just run the debates on delegates. If you don't have any delegates you can't come to the debate. Even people with delegates will start dropping out soon. I guess Christie didn't get any delegates in Iowa but I suppose they could expand it to candidates who are projected to get delegates in the next 2 scheduled primaries or something.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Great. Sign me up. I am an innovator and a job creator and I don't need some old fart with bad hair taking my money! No wonder teenagers like him. They don't have any money!
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
In Iowa, Sanders routed Clinton among young voters even more thoroughly than Obama did. Gender was no defense. Breakdowns provided by the CNN polling unit show that among Iowa voters younger than 30, Sanders not only won 84 percent of men, but also 84 percent of women. At a raucous Sanders rally at the University of Iowa last weekend, young women repeatedly told me that they considered the socialist septuagenarian “the best candidate for our generation,” as Kathleen Trombley, a university junior, put it. “I’d rather,” she added, “vote for someone I fully believe in rather than for someone just based on gender.” Ouch.
Click to expand...
Clinton’s generation gap would pose a greater challenge if she wins the Democratic nomination. For the first time, the Millennial generation this year will nearly equal baby boomers as a share of eligible voters, and Democrats need big margins from those young people. Telling them it’s unrealistic to expect transformative change is unlikely to inspire the support—or turnout—that Clinton would need to prevail in the general election, even if they prefer her to the Republican nominee. Clinton’s problem is that “Democrats are being asked to settle and they don’t want to settle,” said Simon Rosenberg, the founder of the Democratic think-tank NDN. “They want to be inspired and they want to fight.” Instead, in her posture toward Sanders’s supporters, especially younger ones, Clinton risks positioning herself as the chaperone at a frat party. Tenacity and resilience are powerful qualities in a president. Yet to win not only the nomination but also the general election, Clinton will likely have to sell something more uplifting than her capacity to take a punch.
Click to expand...

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...hillary-clinton-could-lose-by-winning/459846/
 
C

CCS

Banned
Any idea when we get the first entirely post-Iowa Dem poll from a decent polling org? Some of the less reliable ones are showing Clinton closing in NH and I wonder if there's any truth in that.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think that's sorta bullshit. Most Iowa caucusers wanted to stay relatively in line with Obama's policies. That's what Hillary is selling. I think it's not so much a matter of inspiration as it is just not being quite so boring.

College campuses have been super annoying recently. Like that crazy yelling girl from Yale.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
My overall impression of Rubio is a completely empty shell. The guy has the resume nailed. Good looking, hispanic, from a key swing state. He's always on message, much like the awesome robot congressman from Parks and Rec. So, he's essentially the perfect blank slate for republicans to pin their hopes and dreams on, after watching Walker and Bush crash and burn, and getting scared shitless by the idea of Trump or Cruz actually winning.

Which is an advantage in some sense, but the downside is that he's a soulless automaton who can barely think. And that's been coming across for the last several months. I think that's why the "poised to surge" jokes came so easily. He seemed to have it all, but on another level, was too lazy and useless and unappealing as a candidate to go anywhere despite that.

Like, I think he's an incredibly bad candidate. Just doesn't seem ready or capable to connect with anyone, and doesn't to actually care about anything beyond what he's told to think. So, I reaaaaallly don't feel like I need to be afraid of him.

Then I remember that he's pro-torture, wants to ban abortions in the case of rape, is basically the most hawkish member of the Senate, wants to lower cap gains, dividends, and interest taxes to zero, and came into national office as a tea party candidate. AND somehow managed to convince the country that he's a moderate. Dude has to have some kind of game, to pull that shit off.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
The first is whether he can win minority voters. Minorities comprised only 9 percent of the voters in Iowa last night (up just slightly from 2008), but they will likely cast between 35 to 40 percent of the total vote in the 2016 Democratic primaries. As I noted on Monday, minorities are especially plentiful in the big states that will award the most delegates, including New York (where minorities cast just under one-third of the 2008 vote), Florida (about one-third), Virginia and New Jersey (about two-fifths), Illinois (over two-fifths) California (nearly half) and Georgia and Texas (over half).

The sample in Iowa was small, but Sanders won only about one-third of non-white voters there, compared to about three-fifths for Clinton. She polls even better among minorities in most national surveys. The next contest in New Hampshire, whose Democratic electorate in 2008 was 95 percent white, won’t provide much guidance on whether Sanders can shatter that wall. The real signals will come later in February from Nevada (where Hispanics and blacks each cast about one-sixth of the 2008 vote) and South Carolina (where African Americans cast a 55 percent majority of the 2008 vote).

Because of Clinton’s continued strength with white women, Sanders almost certainly can’t amass margins large enough among all whites to win big states if he can’t make further gains among minorities. Sanders’s campaign sees more opportunities with Hispanics than African Americans. But from whatever camp they’re drawn, winning more minorities in the big states looming on the calendar is the first key test of whether Sanders can truly threaten Clinton.

The second is whether he can win more Democrats. Sanders won over two-thirds of independents who participated in the Iowa caucus. But even amid his otherwise strong performance, he lost Democrats by a resounding 56 percent to 39 percent. Compared to Obama in Iowa in 2008, Sanders enjoyed a wider margin among independents, but fared much more poorly among Democrats: Obama and Clinton split them about evenly eight years ago.

This profile won’t hurt Sanders in New Hampshire, where independents (and Republicans) cast nearly half of all the votes in the Democratic primary last time. But it’s hard to win a party’s nomination without performing competitively among voters in that party. Many states restrict participation to registered Democrats. In 2008, self-identified Democrats cast almost exactly three-fourths of Democratic primary votes, and Obama held Clinton to a narrow 6-percentage-point advantage among them—allowing him to make up the difference with his crossover support. Sanders, who did not describe himself as a Democrat until recently, is very unlikely to become the Democratic nominee without converting more Democrats to his “political revolution.”
Click to expand...

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/the-great-democratic-age-gap/459570/
 
K

kirblar

Member
DataStream said:
It would be the closest race and the VP would probably have a bigger impact, but I still doubt the GOP can win before they change their rhetoric fundamentally.
Click to expand...
Hillary's likely going to grab one of VA's Senators as her VP. They're both Obama-style technocrats who are hugely popular in the state and ex-governors.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Dan Merica ‏@danmericaCNN 1m1 minute ago
Dan Merica Retweeted Dan Merica
Clinton's haul is in addition to $5 million for the DNC and state parties. Sanders raised $0 for either.
Click to expand...

CaZBd3qW0AAlILz.jpg:large
 
U

ugaboga232

Member
Ophelion said:
I had a discussion with a friend of mine about the two democratic candidates and he admitted his interest in Sanders ultimately stemmed from a burning desire for revenge against "corporations and banks" for the recession. I believe his exact words were, "I want to see them get fucked." This is a common thread I see a lot from people that are really feeling the Bern.

They are, otherwise, very rational and reasonable human beings, but this to me seems like an erratic mob mentality. At a fundamental level, it doesn't seem that different to me to Tea Partiers boiling over with hatred for Muslims. The target's different and perhaps a shade more deserving, but no less vague and misguided and I don't think it will result in something appreciably different. I certainly don't think either group understands shit about their chosen scapegoats.

Is this really what all of American politics are going to degenerate into? Just different tribes, shrieking about how they're going to destroy their chosen boogeymen? I'm not even worried about Sanders. He seems like a good man who thinks he's doing the right thing. I'm more worried about the people that will follow him. I don't really want people to eat the rich. Fuck man, I mostly just want everyone to have a good time. Everyone. Even the people I don't really like all that much. I thought that's what Democrats were down for. That's the whole reason I abandoned the conservative values I was raised with and went the full turncoat in the Obama years...ugh, I don't like this at all.
Click to expand...

This is how humans work, we need to have a frank discussion about the tribalism that is the major motivation in bigotry in all its forms. Everyone is subject to it and everyone needs to work against it in every country and party.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
NeoXChaos said:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/the-great-democratic-age-gap/459570/
Click to expand...

I don't think she will get much better for the younger demo and I don't think she is entirely capable at this point. I also think it isn't entirely needed in the primary as she won the state abet very very narrowly. I think she just needs to maintain her support with the groups she has huge support for already. I imagine that young voters will either vote for her or not vote in the general so I too think that isn't a big deal.

Like I said before, Bernie has the goods of getting support among young voters . I think
Hillary is more of a policy person and doesn't have the language, and that is not very exciting.


Does anyone know what the voting percentages in other states for young and/or independents?
 
E

East Lake

Member
Ophelion said:
I had a discussion with a friend of mine about the two democratic candidates and he admitted his interest in Sanders ultimately stemmed from a burning desire for revenge against "corporations and banks" for the recession. I believe his exact words were, "I want to see them get fucked." This is a common thread I see a lot from people that are really feeling the Bern.

They are, otherwise, very rational and reasonable human beings, but this to me seems like an erratic mob mentality. At a fundamental level, it doesn't seem that different to me to Tea Partiers boiling over with hatred for Muslims. The target's different and perhaps a shade more deserving, but no less vague and misguided and I don't think it will result in something appreciably different. I certainly don't think either group understands shit about their chosen scapegoats.

Is this really what all of American politics are going to degenerate into? Just different tribes, shrieking about how they're going to destroy their chosen boogeymen? I'm not even worried about Sanders. He seems like a good man who thinks he's doing the right thing. I'm more worried about the people that will follow him. I don't really want people to eat the rich. Fuck man, I mostly just want everyone to have a good time. Everyone. Even the people I don't really like all that much. I thought that's what Democrats were down for. That's the whole reason I abandoned the conservative values I was raised with and went the full turncoat in the Obama years...ugh, I don't like this at all.
Click to expand...
The whole other people aren't rational thing gets a bit old. These are anecdotes about people who may be a bit irrationally angry at the banks, but ultimately have no political power over anything and you're worried about them perhaps making bankers a political enemy, instead of worrying about people or structures that have actual political power.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Inebriated said:
Somehow the fact that he's young means he'll win? Hell if I know. It seems pretty crazy to me. Dude is a one trick pony.
Click to expand...

He's moderate on immigration. Several swing states require the Latino vote like Colorado and Nevada I believe. He's more of a threat to the demographic advantages the dems enjoy.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Fenderputty said:
He's moderate on immigration. Several swing states require the Latino vote like Colorado and Nevada I believe. He's more of a threat to the demographic advantages the dems enjoy.
Click to expand...

Is he though? Isn't he running like hell away from the gang of 8 stuff?
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
Sure, but he ran a terrible campaign and brought no energy at a time when the Democratic Party needed it. Dean would have beaten Bush in the general.

Kerry just felt so robotic and always looked uncomfortable. People say Hillarys pandering is bad, but no dabbing or whatever on her part comes close to the MTV "Hello Fellow Children" stuff Kerry attempted.
Click to expand...

The idea that Dean would have beaten Bush is completely baffling. Remember, Dean didn't just lose to Kerry, he also got two million fewer votes than John Edwards. If only 5% of Democrats were willing to vote for him in the primary, why would anyone belief that he would have been able to attract moderate voters?

Kerry has limitations as a politician but he ran a smart, focused campaign. He stomped Bush in the debates and made it a closer race than it had any right to be. If the employment numbers hadn't turned around a few months before the election, which undermined his major campaign theme Kerry may have actually pulled it off.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Regarding Rubio, another thing to consider, in the general, is that she can unleash Bill upon Rubio (or anyone else) and he, more than anyone, can be so utterly effective at cutting through the bullshit surrounding Rubio and this idea that he's a moderate of any sort.

Bill can hammer on Rubio's actual extremeist policies regarding taxation or abortion and get people to look beyond the youthful visage and actually pay attention to what he's actually proposing to do.

He did that against Romney so effectively and he can do that again, especially against someone taking on his wife. Hell, he already knows that Rubio is the most dangerous candidate and he'll be prepared.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Abinash117 said:
I don't think she will get much better for the younger demo and I don't think she is entirely capable at this point. I also think it isn't entirely needed in the primary as she won the state abet very very narrowly. I think she just needs to maintain her support with the groups she has huge support for already. I imagine that young voters will either vote for her or not vote in the general so I too think that isn't a big deal.

Like I said before, Bernie has the goods of getting support among young voters . I think
Hillary is more of a policy person and doesn't have the language, and that is not very exciting.


Does anyone know what the voting percentages in other states for young and/or independents?
Click to expand...


this SC YouGov poll has 14% Independents & 18-29 at 14%

http://www.scribd.com/doc/293729705/CBS-News-December-2015-Battleground-Tracker-South-Carolina
 
A

Allard

Member
East Lake said:
The whole other people aren't rational thing gets a bit old. These are anecdotes about people who may be a bit irrationally angry at the banks, but ultimately have no political power over anything and you're worried about them perhaps making bankers a political enemy, instead of worrying about people or structures that have actual political power.
Click to expand...

Think the problem is that the line of thinking among the polarized and 'fighting' parts of the base seem very similar to how the republicans have been acting for years, and it was only around 2008/2010 that we started to see candidates born of that fighting to become sitting legislature/governors and judges. This was due in large part to an emboldened base that ate dissenters alive or instilled fear of being primaried. On one hand I want the candidates who take office to hold more convictions that I care about but on the other hand I want candidates we elect into office to be competent and work to make the government actually... work. Seeing a resurgence of this purification call (not liberal enough etc.) and acting confrontational when people don't get their choice of candidate is not imo a good place for the party to be in especially when democrats have such a tenuous grip over the moderates/independents on the national scale. Its healthy for now, but should be a worrying trend to watch out for.
 
O

Owzers

Member
“I’m tired of being divided against each other for political reasons like this president’s done," Rubio said. "Always pitting people against each other. Always.”

“Look at today – he gave a speech at a mosque,” Rubio continued. “Oh, you know, basically implying that America is discriminating against Muslims. Of course there’s going to be discrimination in America of every kind. But the bigger issue is radical Islam. And by the way, radical Islam poses a threat to Muslims themselves.”
Click to expand...

Rubio's expanded comments. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/03/trump-and-rubio-question-president-obamas-visit-to-a-mosque/
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I don't think we can beat Rubio.
Click to expand...
I think Clinton beats Rubio 279-259. Rubio picks up Iowa, Ohio and Florida of Obama 2008 states.

Democrats pick up Wisconsin and Illinois' Senate seats pretty easily, but Nevada, Pennsylvania, Florida and New Hampshire are all tight races that go to the Democrats for a very slim 51-49 majority. Colorado is relatively drama-free while other Senate races like Ohio and North Carolina are out of reach.

Democrats gain like 10 House seats.
 
E

East Lake

Member
Allard said:
Think the problem is that the line of thinking among the polarized and 'fighting' parts of the base seem very similar to how the republicans have been acting for years, and it was only around 2008/2010 that we started to see candidates born of that fighting to become sitting legislature/governors and judges. This was due in large part to an emboldened base that ate dissenters alive or instilled fear of being primaried. On one hand I want the candidates who take office to hold more convictions that I care about but on the other hand I want candidates we elect into office to be competent and work to make the government actually... work. Seeing a resurgence of this purification call (not liberal enough etc.) and acting confrontational when people don't get their choice of candidate is not imo a good place for the party to be in especially when democrats have such a tenuous grip over the moderates/independents on the national scale. Its healthy for now, but should be a worrying trend to watch out for.
Click to expand...
Why do you think there's a trend like that in the republican party?
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
I'm getting super annoyed at my liberal friends constantly saying pragmatism is bad and that Obama might as well have made no progress at all since it wasn't enough. They're also saying Obama is a centrist that pulled the wool over our eyes in 08, and you might as well always vote ideological because a pragmatist will get railroaded anyway.

HELP ITS SO BAD
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Abinash117 said:
She shouldn't have much trouble there. In closed states she shouldn't have much difficulty.
Click to expand...

SC is an open primary but the electorate is vastly different than NH which is 95% white and 40% Independents participate. SC primary will have an electorate 55% Black. Bernie would run up the margins with Independents and young but be swamped by Hillary's hold on the black vote and running slightly ahead with whites.

it would be the same scenario in open southern primaries like AL, GA, MS etc but more substantial in black participation and less liberal whites.
 
O

OmniOne

Member
Can someone explain to me how Bernie is going to bring about his revolution but is not raising any money for down ballot Democrats who need the help in state and local races across the nation? You'd think due to the Socialism stigma he would be MORE proactive in trying to limit losses in close races where it WILL be a factor. And anything he wants to pass will need Democratic votes in Congress.

Is it really?:
Step 1) Vote Sanders
Step 2) ???
Step 3) Revolution and we're now Denmark

Also, this increasingly louder purity contest is really off putting me with Bernie and his campaign. Which is sad because I support a lot of his positions, but pragmatic progression works and Revolution does not.
 
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