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[Rafa=FedKilla]

Just drove past a group of Ben Carson supporters.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Crab pls

I don't think I've ever seen Crab admit to one negative thing about Sanders viability as a candidate.

yup. Come on Crab. Let's be honest here about Bernie.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Feel free to email Huffingpost then to fix their aggregate!

I don't mean to be snarky. I'm going off what I'm seeing there, which is a slight Hillary bump.

HuffPost's aggregate is fine. The reason it shows bump for Clinton is because there were a glut of pro-Bernie pollsters followed by a glut of pro-Clinton ones. That doesn't mean Clinton is doing better, because she is doing worse in that glut of pro-Clinton polls than she was the last time those pollsters released their polls (Lowell excepted). That's something HuffPost's aggregate shows, because you can click on any individual data point to see how much movement there was since the last data point (i.e. poll) from the same source (which is a really useful thing to have, incidentally. The problem is not the aggregate, it's bad use of it.

 

[PBY]

I'm picturing a GE debate where Rubio is hammering Bernie on ISIS and I just cringe.

Then hita him with atheist socialist and it's a wrap.

I acknowledge Hilary's flaws. But come on.

 

[ugaboga232]

If we don't have GE polls to go off of, then all we are doing is conjecturing with our biases about the candidates which is just our uninformed opinions.

Unless most of you are highly trained political analysts and I've wandered into the wrong forum lol.

 

[Black Mamba]

I get what you are saying, but this is all theory. The polls, as incredibly bad and shitty as they are for GE at this point, say hes doing a bit better than clinton. You could make a rational case the he will do better for a variety of reasons.

PS sam wang is the man, interviewed with him (hes actually a neuro person, the election stuff is just things he does for fun) and I think he is doing cool stuff (still hes at the top of a very fancy new pyramid financed by jeff bezos so he better use all the advantages hes got).

The say he does better because he's still a generic d. Outside of Iowa, NH, and a couple others no one really knows him outside of name. I don't think you can make coherent why he'd do better. It's all fanciful thinking.

C'mon, we're in February now. These polls get more and more accurate every month. You might have a +/-5 error term, fine, whatever... but this has Sanders with a 10 point lead. This is just massive cognitive dissonance, now.

No they aren't. No matter what you say, they mean nothing til like august.

You are just delusional is all.

 

[PBY]

If we don't have GE polls to go off of, then all we are doing is conjecturing with our biases about the candidates which is just our uninformed opinions.

We have data about how Americans feel regarding atheism and socialism. That is more valuable than any GE poll.

 

[ugaboga232]

The say he does better because he's still a generic d. Outside of Iowa, NH, and a couple others no one really knows him outside of name. I don't think you can make coherent why he'd do better. It's all fanciful thinking.



No they aren't. No matter what you say, they mean nothing til like august.

You are just delusional is all.

Ok very fair point, he isn't well known outside of a few states. But if clinton is doing worse than being a generic D, what does that mean for her once the attacks ramp up?

 

[Retromelon]

Wait, is that Jeb?? What movie is this?

black mass. but yes i use the gif because the guy looks like jeb

 

[NeoXChaos]

We have data about how Americans feel regarding atheism and socialism. That is more valuable than any GE poll.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYe_0CRfU-Q

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

We have data about how Americans feel regarding atheism and socialism. That is more valuable than any GE poll.

Listen, okay, there's a much better chance that Bernie is an atheist than Rubio is gay, but they haven't proved it/he has been outright about it yet!

 

[ugaboga232]

We have data about how Americans feel regarding atheism and socialism. That is more valuable than any GE poll.

Those are abstract concepts that people do not like. Putting a person to them changes things. Plus Bernie isn't really that atheist, more agnostic/weakly spiritual but has never come out strongly as an atheist. Socialism he wears it semi-proudly as a democratic socialist.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

This doesn't preclude them from having mutual policy objectives that Rubio is uniquely well suited to appeal to. Rubio will do better than Romney among Hispanics, I have not doubt about that. He'd also do better than Ted Cruz.

Okay, I'll call it now. I will bet whatever avatar you want for a month if Rubio wins the nomination and does better with Hispanics than Romney. If Rubio doesn't win the nomination, no bet. If Rubio wins the nomination and does worse with Hispanics than Romney, I pick your avatar.

 

[CCS]

The diablosing here is getting out of control. Everything will be fine.

 

[PBY]

Okay, I'll call it now. I will bet whatever avatar you want for a month if Rubio wins the nomination and does better with Hispanics than Romney. If Rubio doesn't win the nomination, no bet. If Rubio wins the nomination and does worse with Hispanics than Romney, I pick your avatar.

This is a stupid bet dude.

 

[Black Mamba]

If we don't have GE polls to go off of, then all we are doing is conjecturing with our biases about the candidates which is just our uninformed opinions.

Unless most of you are highly trained political analysts and I've wandered into the wrong forum lol.

I think I'm right and unbiased. Don't need to be trained. I'm not even a fan of Hillary.

My personal bias is to make sure a not Republican wins. That's it.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Maybe the "If Bernie doesn't win, I'm voting for Trump!" people are all just single issue voters when it comes to getting an atheist in office.

 

[Veritigo_X]

black mass. but yes i use the gif because the guy looks like jeb

Haha, looking at it more I can see it isn't him but it looks dead on. I thought it might've been a small part they threw his way or something. Sort of like the Activision guy being in Moneyball.

 

[kingkitty]

I bet my cat that Gilmore will get more than 10 write-in votes during the general election.

 

[ugaboga232]

I think I'm right and unbiased. Don't need to be trained. I'm not even a fan of Hillary.

My personal bias is to make sure a not Republican wins. That's it.

Ok thats not how brains or humans work, of course we all think we are non-biased otherwise we self doubt and become depressed. I do think hillary has a better chance than bernie right now but thats just based on her having so much raw financial/establishment support. I can imagine plausible situations where bernie wins (tbh if he can get the nomination short of hillary getting indicted, i think that says he has some legs in the GE) and hillary wins or they both lose.

 

[Gruco]

Okay, I'll call it now. I will bet whatever avatar you want for a month if Rubio wins the nomination and does better with Hispanics than Romney. If Rubio doesn't win the nomination, no bet. If Rubio wins the nomination and does worse with Hispanics than Romney, I pick your avatar.

Yeah no, avatars are stupid, and I'm really not typing right now because I'm particularly interested in predicting the future.

My point is simple. Yes, it's true that hispanics are not homogenous. That's not a relevant point because generally overlapping policy preferences are a thing. Are you disagreeing with me on that, or not?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The say he does better because he's still a generic d. Outside of Iowa, NH, and a couple others no one really knows him outside of name. I don't think you can make coherent why he'd do better. It's all fanciful thinking.



No they aren't. No matter what you say, they mean nothing til like august.

You are just delusional is all.

This far out, the average error is 3.2%.

You can look this up yourself, I can give you the spreadsheet if you want it easier. This is not October last year when polls are relatively unpredictive. Sanders is now known by 84% of Americans. Rubio is known by 86% of Americans (for the record, Clinton is only known by 94% and people with low levels of political information are less likely to vote anyway). We are not in a low-information situation any more. Yes, the polls can change. But it won't be from "shock, horror, Sanders is a socialist". That's known information. It'd change from something like a terrorist attack or a global economic crash (i.e., unknown information).

Engage with my points instead of calling me delusional; this is a board for discussion and not a way to reinforce the echo chamber.

 

[Black Mamba]

Ok very fair point, he isn't well known outside of a few states. But if clinton is doing worse than being a generic D, what does that mean for her once the attacks ramp up?

Almost everyone does worse than generic x unless they are very popular. Hillary is known and she's up against generic r.

And the general polling is worthless there too because solid dems aren't answering These polls. It's too early. People are only interested in the gop primary, really.

Anecdotally, in Los Angeles you can't find bernie signs or bumper stickers. Nobody is paying attention. And we're quite liberal!

 

[User 463088]

Those are abstract concepts that people do not like. Putting a person to them changes things. Plus Bernie isn't really that atheist, more agnostic/weakly spiritual but has never come out strongly as an atheist. Socialism he wears it semi-proudly as a democratic socialist.

Again, though, there are polls on this. Americans do not have a favorable opinion of socialism. They just don't. To pretend that Bernie Sanders will change decades worth of bias simply because he puts a face to it is....on it's face (sorry) absurd. In a state in which 43% of Democrats said they were democratic socialists, he still lost. The socialist and non-religious things WILL be a problem. To pretend otherwise is not grounded in reality. It's projecting one's own lack of bias on the population as a whole.

And I say this as someone who is a proud atheist and is in no way afraid of real socialism or whatever Bernie's version is...

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Those are abstract concepts that people do not like. Putting a person to them changes things. Plus Bernie isn't really that atheist, more agnostic/weakly spiritual but has never come out strongly as an atheist. Socialism he wears it semi-proudly as a democratic socialist.

Sanders is not exactly an attractive salesman of these policies. Maybe compared to Clinton he looks cool or whatever but I've seen the guy a lot and he doesn't seem to be very charismatic at all. Joe Biden could probably sell socialism though.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Yeah no, avatars are stupid, and I'm really not typing right now because I'm particularly interested in predicting the future.

My point is simple. Yes, it's true that hispanics are not homogenous. That's not a relevant point because generally overlapping policy preferences are a thing. Are you disagreeing with me on that, or not?

Romney's policies were more pro-Hispanic (or rather less anti-Hispanic) than the statements Rubio has been forced into making so far this cycle, so I dispute the notion that the Hispanic policy preference overlaps with Rubio more than it does Romney.

 

[kingkitty]

black mass. but yes i use the gif because the guy looks like jeb

i thought that gif is from Burn After Reading.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Almost everyone does worse than generic x unless they are very popular. Hillary is known and she's up against generic r.

And the general polling is worthless there too because solid dems aren't answering These polls. It's too early. People are only interested in the gop primary, really.

Anecdotally, in Los Angeles you can't find bernie signs or bumper stickers. Nobody is paying attention. And we're quite liberal!

It should tell you something that Sanders does not, then. Sanders massively outperforms generic D. But you will ignore this because it does not fit with your preconceived worldview.

 

[Makai]

The other guy looks like Rick Scott

 

[Jenov]

So this is where all the good political discussion is hiding!

 

[pigeon]

Yeah no, avatars are stupid, and I'm really not typing right now because I'm particularly interested in predicting the future.

My point is simple. Yes, it's true that hispanics are not homogenous. That's not a relevant point because generally overlapping policy preferences are a thing. Are you disagreeing with me on that, or not?

How, exactly, is Rubio better positioned to fulfill Hispanic policy preferences?

 

[Black Mamba]

Ok thats not how brains or humans work, of course we all think we are non-biased otherwise we self doubt and become depressed. I do think hillary has a better chance than bernie right now but thats just based on her having so much raw financial/establishment support. I can imagine plausible situations where bernie wins (tbh if he can get the nomination short of hillary getting indicted, i think that says he has some legs in the GE) and hillary wins or they both lose.

Counterpoint. Goldwater.

The party nominating isn't guaranteed to be rational.

Remember only a small percentage of voters decide primaries.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

How, exactly, is Rubio better positioned to fulfill Hispanic policy preferences?

Don't be delusional, pigeon, it must be true because a talking head said it on the TV.

 

[Black Mamba]

It should tell you something that Sanders does not, then. Sanders massively outperforms generic D. But you will ignore this because it does not fit with your preconceived worldview.

No. He is generic d and polls just like one.

 

[ugaboga232]

Almost everyone does worse than generic x unless they are very popular. Hillary is known and she's up against generic r.

And the general polling is worthless there too because solid dems aren't answering These polls. It's too early. People are only interested in the gop primary, really.

Anecdotally, in Los Angeles you can't find bernie signs or bumper stickers. Nobody is paying attention. And we're quite liberal!

Are you telling me trump/cruz/rubio aren't known? It seems like the polls suck so no good predictions can be made

Again, though, there are polls on this. Americans do not have a favorable opinion of socialism. They just don't. To pretend that Bernie Sanders will change decades worth of bias simply because he puts a face to it is....on it's face (sorry) absurd. In a state in which 43% of Democrats said they were democratic socialists, he still lost. The socialist and non-religious things WILL be a problem. To pretend otherwise is not grounded in reality. It's projecting one's own lack of bias on the population as a whole.

And I say this as someone who is a proud atheist and is in no way afraid of real socialism or whatever Bernie's version is...

I don't think its quite that simple but I do agree he has a problem. But if he wins the nomination he will already be beating expectations. You would be surprised at the lunacy of the human brain.

Also that poll is from june 2015 and opinions can change.

Sanders is not exactly an attractive salesman of these policies. Maybe compared to Clinton he looks cool or whatever but I've seen the guy a lot and he doesn't seem to be very charismatic at all. Joe Biden could probably sell socialism though.

Agreed 100%, hes the worst candidate ever but hes a good person/politician it seems.

 

[pigeon]

No. He is generic d and polls just like one.

This at least is a resolvable question. Do either of you have links to some polls comparing Sanders to generic D?

Also, if I became a porn star, my name would definitely be Generic D.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Goldwater's loss was never denied by polling. Goldwater-versus-Johnson Gallup polls held between 1 January and 2 November found Johnson's lead over Goldwater ranging between a low of 77-to-18 and a high 64-to-29 percent with the rest undecided. Goldwater actually performed slightly better than the polls predicted!

Meanwhile, Sanders is predicted as doing better than Clinton. This is not comparable to Goldwater.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Goldwater's loss was never denied by polling. Goldwater-versus-Johnson Gallup polls held between 1 January and 2 November found Johnson's lead over Goldwater ranging between a low of 77-to-18 and a high 64-to-29 percent with the rest undecided. Goldwater actually performed slightly better than the polls predicted!

Meanwhile, Sanders is predicted as doing better than Clinton. This is not comparable to Goldwater.

Did they have YouGov online polls back then?

 

[Gruco]

Romney's policies were more pro-Hispanic (or rather less anti-Hispanic) than the statements Rubio has been forced into making so far this cycle, so I dispute the notion that the Hispanic policy preference overlaps with Rubio more than it does Romney.

Romney fucking crushed Perry for being too dovish on immigration, while Rubio has been taking a beating from Trump/Cruz for gang of 8ing. I'm not saying you're wrong (at all), but I'm surprised to see you say that and would be curious to hear more about why you say so.

How, exactly, is Rubio better positioned to fulfill Hispanic policy preferences?

The fact the he's been criticized from the right for making previous efforts to support immigration reform allows him to credibly claim in the general that he'd be willing to support this type of thing. And relative to Trump/Cruz, he's more or less a saint on the issue. Romney used the issue pretty aggressively to beat back Perry, by comparison, so he drew a harder line against it.

 

[ugaboga232]

Romney fucking crushed Perry for being too dovish on immigration, while Rubio has been taking a beating from Trump/Cruz for gang of 8ing. I'm not saying you're wrong (at all), but I'm surprised to see you say that and would be curious to hear more about why you say so.

The fact the he's been criticized from the right for making previous efforts to support immigration reform allows him to credibly claim in the general that he'd be willing to support this type of thing. And relative to Trump/Cruz, he's more or less a saint on the issue. Romney used the issue pretty aggressively to beat back Perry, by comparison, so he drew a harder line against it.

I thought cubans were somewhat despised by other hispanics due to a variety of factors?

 

[pigeon]

Romney fucking crushed Perry for being too dovish on immigration, while Rubio has been taking a beating from Trump/Cruz for gang of 8ing. I'm not saying you're wrong (at all), but I'm surprised to see you say that and would be curious to hear more about why you say so.

The fact the he's been criticized from the right for making previous efforts to support immigration reform allows him to credibly claim in the general that he'd be willing to support this type of thing. And relative to Trump/Cruz, he's more or less a saint on the issue. Romney used the issue pretty aggressively to beat back Perry, by comparison, so he drew a harder line against it.

I feel like this is a little backwards. Rubio actually had the chance to fight for immigration reform and voted against his own bill. Then he came out in the primary against amnesty, just like Romney did.

I don't know why you think people will trust Rubio more on immigration when his record is actually notably worse! He's been against immigration reform for a lot longer than he's been for it.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Counterpoint. Goldwater.

The party nominating isn't guaranteed to be rational.

Remember only a small percentage of voters decide primaries.

There's so many reasons that Goldwater doesn't serve as any sort of parallel for a 2016 election. The elasticity of states' voting trends is different, the country is not in the middle of a restructuring of party platforms, a popular democratic president hasn't recently been assassinated, Hillary is leading her own campaign rather than working on that one (kidding), etc etc. So many reasons 1964 doesn't apply to 2016.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I feel like this is a little backwards. Rubio actually had the chance to fight for immigration reform and voted against his own bill. Then he came out in the primary against amnesty, just like Romney did.

I don't know why you think people will trust Rubio more on immigration when his record is actually notably worse! He's been against immigration reform for a lot longer than he's been for it.

Rubio is a better candidate than Romney. He's not a robotic stiff that acts like he's too good to be asking for votes from filthy commoners.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Did they have YouGov online polls back then?

Are yougov online polls the one's being cited when showing Sanders performing better Clinton in GE matchups?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Romney fucking crushed Perry for being too dovish on immigration, while Rubio has been taking a beating from Trump/Cruz for gang of 8ing. I'm not saying you're wrong (at all), but I'm surprised to see you say that and would be curious to hear more about why you say so.

The fact the he's been criticized from the right for making previous efforts to support immigration reform allows him to credibly claim in the general that he'd be willing to support this type of thing. And relative to Trump/Cruz, he's more or less a saint on the issue. Romney used the issue pretty aggressively to beat back Perry, by comparison, so he drew a harder line against it.

I mean, it's probably true that Rubio can frame it better in a general because he was attacked from his right while Romney was attacked from the centre; I'll happily concede that. But from a policy perspective, there's not really much difference between the policy statements of the two. For example, Rubio sells himself as wanting to pass "legislation [which] contains the toughest border immigration enforcement measures in U.S. history.", including building a high-tech fence and minimum 90% apprehension rate with apprehension rates below this automatically triggering a budget rise. Romney never went that balls-deep. That entire 2012 Republican primary was fought way closer to the centre than this one.

 

[Abinash117]

Did Rubio run away from his own immigration bill? Now that he seems to be hard on immigration. I fail to see him doing all that well with Hispanics and unless he flip flops which he might do, Hillary for example, he would have to run on her right and because of that I fail to see him gaining many more supporters than Romney. I don't see why Hispanics would choose him over Hillary. Considering his history on immigration he would be an easy target.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Are yougov online polls the one's being cited when showing Sanders performing better Clinton in GE matchups?

Probably not, I just like to bash yougov here and there because I have legitimate grievances with their wacky numbers.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Are yougov online polls the one's being cited when showing Sanders performing better Clinton in GE matchups?

No. Quinnipiac, NBC/WSJ/Marist, Fox, and PPP (D) are the main ones who do match-ups - in Iowa, Marist performed very well, Quinnipiac performed reasonably well, and PPP and Fox performed quite poorly. I don't even think YouGov does trial heats.

 

[Gruco]

I feel like this is a little backwards. Rubio actually had the chance to fight for immigration reform and voted against his own bill. Then he came out in the primary against amnesty, just like Romney did.

I don't know why you think people will trust Rubio more on immigration when his record is actually notably worse! He's been against immigration reform for a lot longer than he's been for it.

I'm probably giving a little too much credit to the Rubio Moderate Pixie Dust, I dunno. I think that Rubio is generally perceived to be much more moderate on immigration that other Republicans. The fact that his competitors are constantly one-upping one another on the size of the walls is important, because it makes him look better by comparison (next to Trump, "voted against his own bill" is practically a compliment). Rubio's debate strategy has been less about joining in the insanity and more about pointing out times that his competitors did the same thing he did, which I also think is important and telling.

 

[Black Mamba]

Are you telling me trump/cruz/rubio aren't known? It seems like the polls suck so no good predictions can be made

Trump is. Jeb! By name. Rest less so.

Less than have of ge voters will be voting in the primaries.

But yeah, I don't think the ge polling matters right now.

I don't see how bernie is electable. I wish someone like him was (assuming he was a better candidate with the same positions) but he's not.