benjipwns
Banned
She's fighting someone, the American people maybe? The FBI charges?
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
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neurosisxeno
Member
Her message as far as I can tell is literally "I can get stuff done, and I'll continue everything Obama did." Which is not exactly an inspiring message to be honest. It's also severely hurt by the fact that Republicans have made it clear they have no interest in working with Hillary if she's in the White House.
benjipwns
Banned
Do Democrats?
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I don't know any Idaho Democrats that aren't liberal. We're all pretty far to the left from what I can tell. It could just be the circles I run in, but Boise is pretty liberal.
It's statistics, that's always going to happen. It's why we use aggregates and whatnot.
benjipwns
Banned
All of CNN/WMUR's polls have shown Bernie higher for like the last two months. They've also shown smaller than aggregate Trump leads. Whatever that's worth.
Although the two tracking polls had him much higher a couple weeks ago. He was at like 62 and 58 or something, now he's down to 56 and 53.
Although the two tracking polls had him much higher a couple weeks ago. He was at like 62 and 58 or something, now he's down to 56 and 53.
If you're asking this question then she doesn't have a great staff. She has a staff with a lot of veteran democratic operatives and a lot of big egos. That doesn't translate into a great staff or a great campaign. That's partly why she struggled so much in 08 and why she is struggling now. In 08 her staff ran a 90s style Clinton campaign, using 90's style attacks that relied on emotions instead of facts or even reasonable arguments. But that didn't connect with contemporary voters in a different political age. This time she's tried to run a campaign more similar to Obama's in 08 and 12 but her message is still falling flat. Some of that is on her, no doubt. She is a deeply flawed politician. But it's also on her staff for not doing a better job. For instance, her own internal expectations were for her to win big in Iowa, at least a 5% margin, and have that set the narrative going forward. Her much talked about ground game, etc. We saw what actually happened.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
CNN/ORC had Trump and Sanders very high in Iowa. Wonder what the deal is. Is CNN pushing their polling partners?
Oversampling first time voters/independents?
Supposed to be live Dixville Notch results here if you are really thirsty:
http://bnonews.com/news/index.php/news/id3592
Just music right now though.
EDIT: nevermind
http://bnonews.com/news/index.php/news/id3592
Just music right now though.
EDIT: nevermind
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
The results are already in. 3 Kasich, 2 Trump, 4 Sanders.
I don't think they reflect your opinion either. You say that the DNC is disconnected and that the two party system is too old and slow to deal with the problems of today. But what BLM and the March are doing is advocating for solutions within this existing structure you deride. What you're really saying is that only the young people have all the good ideas, as if they know the first thing about government and foreign relations.
"Get out of the way, our untested ideas are much better than the framework that was built and iterated on for years." If you accept that the US rushing into Iraq was a bad policy, what is so different about "fast paced revolution"? Was that mass incarceration legislation not also the product of lawmakers being pressured to do something about violence, and therefore eager to acquiesce to something without deliberating enough?
Even if you got the responsibility, then what? The moment something doesn't go your way it'll be endless blaming of the system and of how your peers are your obstacles and your enemies.
No, I don't think the youth vote is ready to take responsibility at all. If they were, they would have learned something from the past 8 years.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Fair point, but until Clinton is willing to shake up her stump speeches and offer a little more than "I promise not to fuck things up" I think we're going to see Bernie continue to be a bigger threat than he really has any right to be.
Clinton ties her 2008 results then. No surprise.
For what it's worth, I think the 30 point margin in the CNN/WMUR poll is crazy. It will probably be closer to 15.
And another thing, young people. Could you at least try to bring dinner home for us once in a while? I have to work too and I'm tired when I get home and I'm not made of money, okay. You don't have to pay rent, I'm just asking for a little contribution once in a while. Your older brother is responsible. Why can't you be more like him? He even votes in the midterms.
And another thing, young people. Could you at least try to bring dinner home for us once in a while? I have to work too and I'm tired when I get home and I'm not made of money, okay. You don't have to pay rent, I'm just asking for a little contribution once in a while. Your older brother is responsible. Why can't you be more like him? He even votes in the midterms.
benjipwns
Banned
In the case of NH it looks like they might be predicting independents are more likely to vote in the Democratic primary. Since independents tend to favor Sanders (who is higher than aggregate) and Trump (who is lower than aggregate) changing the weighting along those lines could do this.
I pay my mom's phone bill. Take that jelly old people.
User 463088
Banned
You are assuming she has to overcome a 9-1 demo everywhere, which is simply not going to be the case.
However, we can do some shitty ad-hoc math and use current polling with 2008s exit data (from NH) and the results from Iowa, and we make some (very rough) conclusions.
In 2008 in NH, the 18-29 year olds made up 18% of the primary voters. Total turnout in 2008 was 284 090. That means 18-29 year were 51,136. If we allocate them 85/10 to Bernie, he would get approximately 43465 and Hillary would get approximately 5,136. However, if we consider that those over 45 made up approximately 55% of the electorate, Hillary's math gets better. In Iowa, she won those over 45 by approximately 63% to Bernies 31%. Let's call it 60/35. Using 2008s turn out, this means those over 45 totaled approximately 156,249. This would give Hillary around 93,749 and Bernie 54, 687
Grand totals:
Hillary 98,885,
Bernie 98,152.
We still have the 30-44 year olds to worry about. which Bernie could definitely win, especially in states that are white and liberal. This math is incredibly rough, and it's comparing elections from different years to different states. I'm not saying this is indivitive of any primary turnout, but it shows that Hillary's margin among the older people, although smaller than the 85/10 split, is ore valuable because there are more of them. A 2 to 1 advantage with those over 45 is worth more, in raw numbers, than a 8 to 1 advantage among the younger people.
However, she does need to do something about it.
Also, I'm not going to defend this from scrutiny. I'm exhausted, and I just did this to see what the numbers would show. Like I Said, this was me wanting to see what numbers I could turn out. I don't pretend that this even makes sense. It was a thought exercise.
However, we can do some shitty ad-hoc math and use current polling with 2008s exit data (from NH) and the results from Iowa, and we make some (very rough) conclusions.
In 2008 in NH, the 18-29 year olds made up 18% of the primary voters. Total turnout in 2008 was 284 090. That means 18-29 year were 51,136. If we allocate them 85/10 to Bernie, he would get approximately 43465 and Hillary would get approximately 5,136. However, if we consider that those over 45 made up approximately 55% of the electorate, Hillary's math gets better. In Iowa, she won those over 45 by approximately 63% to Bernies 31%. Let's call it 60/35. Using 2008s turn out, this means those over 45 totaled approximately 156,249. This would give Hillary around 93,749 and Bernie 54, 687
Grand totals:
Hillary 98,885,
Bernie 98,152.
We still have the 30-44 year olds to worry about. which Bernie could definitely win, especially in states that are white and liberal. This math is incredibly rough, and it's comparing elections from different years to different states. I'm not saying this is indivitive of any primary turnout, but it shows that Hillary's margin among the older people, although smaller than the 85/10 split, is ore valuable because there are more of them. A 2 to 1 advantage with those over 45 is worth more, in raw numbers, than a 8 to 1 advantage among the younger people.
However, she does need to do something about it.
Also, I'm not going to defend this from scrutiny. I'm exhausted, and I just did this to see what the numbers would show. Like I Said, this was me wanting to see what numbers I could turn out. I don't pretend that this even makes sense. It was a thought exercise.
And_Gignac
Member
CNN is telling the tea, I can feel it.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Our early VPs and Speakers of the House were not good with the camera:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgsVrIXkix4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgsVrIXkix4
Yes I agree but that too is a reflection of her campaign. She doesn't write her own speeches. Hell, she doesn't even craft her own argument. That is done by pollsters, strategists, and speechwriters. That's her staff. They have yet to figure out a way to respond to Bernie. So far they have trotted out the same arguments that failed to work against Obama in 08. He's too liberal, he's untested, he isn't strong on foreign policy, he's unelectable. We've heard these arguments before.
benjipwns
Banned
I heard John Adams was terrible with them.
I knew you were ok.
Kasich actually personally called all 9 Dixville Notch voters. If he could just do this for every voter he might have a chance to come in 2nd.
User 463088
Banned
To be honest, I'm incredibly frustrated with both of our candidates. Hillary has had 8 years to figure this shit out, and she gives the appearance of not having done it. She's had months to deal with Bernie's talking points, and she hasn't. Then Bill gets slightly bitchy again, and I want to pull my hair out.
Then, on the other hand, the only alternative is Bernie Freaking Sanders. Which is just...not cool, man. Not cool. Nothing against the guy, but he is not a good choice for the nomination for a plethora of reasons.
Some days I wish Biden would have put his hat in the ring. He would have probably prevented Bernie from getting as much mindshare as he has.
Then, on the other hand, the only alternative is Bernie Freaking Sanders. Which is just...not cool, man. Not cool. Nothing against the guy, but he is not a good choice for the nomination for a plethora of reasons.
Some days I wish Biden would have put his hat in the ring. He would have probably prevented Bernie from getting as much mindshare as he has.
User 463088
Banned
I'm sure it will, it's just I get pissed at incompetency. I really do.
Hart's Location results:
Bernie 12
Hillary 7
Greenstein 2
Kasich 5
Trump 4
Christie 2
Bush 1
Carson 1
Rubio 1
Jack Remington
Banned
To all my Predictit brothers: GOP NH Runner-up is probably the most exciting market right now.
benjipwns
Banned
This is why we can't have a true revolution. It's gotta be the guy with 35 years in elected office.
Hexa
Member
I'm not a fan of Hillary or Bernie in the first place, but overall I agree with you tremendously. I didn't expect for her to make me super enthusiastic, but I did expect her to run an incredibly good campaign and definitely win my vote. She hasn't been performing as well I expected. But Bernie's been even worse to the point that I don't get WTF is up with him. Bleh. I really wish Biden was running. I would probably prefer throwing my hat in the ring for him.
Both the Republican and Democratic primaries have been a complete mess so far, but at least the Republican's are entertaining.
neurosisxeno
Member
NH has a really high population that identifies as Independent, so I would say you'd have to give the edge to Bernie on that fact alone.
theprodigy
Member
should we do a last minute PoliGAF contest on this? lol
I wanted to cash out on Presiodent Hillary to get into the other markets, but she keeps fucking dropping! 39 points - what the heck?!
It's those early bellwether results in NH.
I can't imagine the amount of self-pleasuring that must be happening on Reddit right now.
im kidding about the bellwether, the results are consistent with 2008.
User 463088
Banned
She's still my girl. I still believe she wins. I still want her to be our nominee, but I want someone in that campaign to get their shit together. It's absolutely ridiculous that she's doing some of the same shit this time as last time. Her messaging has been shit. Get something cognizant together and freaking run with it.
Of course. I've always said Bernie will win New Hampshire. Anything less than that would have been a repudiation of him as a candidate and a person. That wasn't going to happen. However, my shitty math was only to show that, while it's not ideal, Hillary being down that much among 18-29 year olds is only a problem if she doesn't perform the way she has historically among older voters. She keeps those margins, and keeps her margins among PoC, Bernie can get 100% of the 18-29 year olds and it wouldn't make that much difference.
Bernie v Kasich election confirmed.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Probably as skill-based as playing slots.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
One week of knowing what will happen in NH the entire time. Did it suddenly become real for everyone or something?
Nah, this market is too irrational for it to be totally gambling. They had Hillary indictment at 35%.
RastaMentality
Banned
We should. I say Kasich.
User 463088
Banned
Ya....our bench isn't great at the moment.
Ya, I say Kasich gets 2nd as well. Barely. But he gets it.
benjipwns
Banned
Elizabeth is the young gun at 67!
neurosisxeno
Member
Well we did have Martin O'Malley who's only 53. Then you have people like Kirsten Gillibrand at 49, Julian Castro at 41, and Tulsi Gabbard who is off to a promising career at 34.
EDIT: Forgot Cory Booker at 46 and Andrew Cuomo at 58.
benjipwns
Banned
Some random dude from Connecticut.
http://www.c-span.org/person/?markstewartgreenstein
NH has incredibly low filing requirements, so there's like 30+ candidates on the ballot or some shit.
Jack Remington
Banned
I've made enough that if I went back in time to 2006 I could have bought a 60 gig PS3 at its original price. And a copy of Blazing Angels. It's about exploiting other people's irrationality.
Things like the runner-up markets are pretty close to gambling though. The Obama approval rating markets are straight up slot machines.
User 463088
Banned
My bae was too beautiful for this race. My smexy Gov McSexy Pants.
She was also a republican until 1996...something the far, far left doesn't seem to mind.
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