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[benjipwns]

Because the "establishment" (aka the money/donors) are avoiding him like the plague. They coalesced around Jeb Bush, for fuck's sake. JEB!

Well, yeah, he was polling at ~1%. Jeb! was a leading candidate before people realized he was actually running for President. Cruz, Carson and Rubio have still racked up equal or more direct candidate money.

Jeb! just tapped the Bush network to throw $100 million into his PACs before the campaign even started.

PJ O'Rourke is 68??

Spoiler

Parliament of Whores was 1991.

 

[And_Gignac]

It begins!

Bernie Sanders Suddenly Looking and Sounding Like a Front-Runner

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...uddenly-looking-sounding-front-runner-n514256

 

[Makai]

Donald Trump
John Kasich
Marco Reboot
Ted Cruz
Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Carly Fiorina
Ben Carson
Jim Gilmore

 

[Iolo]

Whoa, if true. Those numbers are mind-boggling. He's going to win by 30 points.

 

[Frank the Great]

You are a mess for that Nevada story, Neo.

Sanders kind of won already? I mean, he has already created a political movement that hopefully will see the results in whoever the Dem nominee is in 4 or 8 years. The Dems will be more like Sanders and less like Clinton from now on.

I agree. He is the Democrat's Goldwater in the sense that he represents the future and also in the sense that he will get destroyed if he gets the nomination.

 

[Tesseract]

kasiche
trump
bush
christie
rubio
carson
fiorina

 

[Makai]

kasiche
trump
bush
christie
rubio
carson
fiorina

Cruz wrecked

 

[Bowdz]

Whoa, if true. Those numbers are mind-boggling. He's going to win by 30 points.

Seriously. That will make up his deficit with AA and possibly Latinos if he keeps those margins. It's fucking bonkers.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

I agree. He is the Democrat's Goldwater in the sense that he represents the future and also in the sense that he will get destroyed if he gets the nomination.

I mean, that's a little disingenuous. A certain popular democratic president was assassinated during his reelection campaign less than a year before Goldwater got curb stomped.

 

[Tesseract]

Cruz wrecked

i write not the pig demon's name

damn it, i meant to put christie above bush

oh well, yolo

 

[NeoXChaos]

Seriously. That will make up his deficit with AA and possibly Latinos if he keeps those margins. It's fucking bonkers.

Lets not extrapolate too much into those numbers. The demographics and landscape going forward are not going to look anything like NH or 95% white or liberal.

 

[theprodigy]

Bold prediction: Gilmore will be last out of all active candidates.

 

[B-Dubs]

Whoa, if true. Those numbers are mind-boggling. He's going to win by 30 points.

The coming states aren't nearly as white, that lead won't hold.

 

[Makai]

Lets not extrapolate too much into those numbers. The demographics and landscape going forward are not going to look anything like NH or 95% white or liberal.

He's in a good position in most of those states if he wins by 30 points.

 

[benjipwns]

Why we always gotta use Goldwater.

Why not William Jennings Bryan? (Lost everytime. Reformed the Democratic Party from liberal to progressive through sheer force of will.)

Why not George McGovern? (Ran a terrible campaign and got vaporized. Led the New Left to fracture the New Deal coalition.)

Why not Walter Mondale? (Tone-deaf campaign sent the Democrats fleeing into the arms of the DLC.)

etc.

 

[Frank the Great]

I mean, that's a little disingenuous. A certain popular democratic president was assassinated during his reelection campaign less than a year before Goldwater got curb stomped.

Disingenuous? All I'm saying is that I think Bernie would get curb stomped if he gets the nomination and that he also represents the future of the party. Why do the reasons matter? I obviously don't mean he is the exact mirror image of Goldwater.

 

[benjipwns]

Disingenuous? All I'm saying is that I think Bernie would get curb stomped if he gets the nomination and that he also represents the future of the party. Why do the reasons matter? I obviously don't mean he is the exact mirror image of Goldwater.

It depends on the GOP candidate.

The way things are setup these days in terms of cleavages, I can't really see either party falling below 45% of the popular vote and getting at least 150 EVs.

Unless there's a seriously major third party candidate.

 

[dabig2]

You are a mess for that Nevada story, Neo.

Sanders kind of won already? I mean, he has already created a political movement that hopefully will see the results in whoever the Dem nominee is in 4 or 8 years. The Dems will be more like Sanders and less like Clinton from now on.

It was always a foregone conclusion though. The post-Realignment generations were always trending to be more liberal and more diverse than their parents before them. They want back the new deal liberalism that was unceremoniously murdered in the 70s.

 

[NeoXChaos]

He's in a good position in most of those states if he wins by 30 points.

Idaho Democrats of what is left of them are very liberal like NH? Very interesting if true. I would expect places like that (WY, UT etc) to be a little more conservative.

 

[RustyNails]

Why we always gotta use Goldwater.

Why not William Jennings Bryan? (Lost everytime. Reformed the Democratic Party from liberal to progressive through sheer force of will.)

Why not George McGovern? (Ran a terrible campaign and got vaporized. Led the New Left to fracture the New Deal coalition.)

Why not Walter Mondale? (Tone-deaf campaign sent the Democrats fleeing into the arms of the DLC.)

etc.

McGovern is most similar to Bernie (in terms of promising stuff that will never come to pass), but his doom happened when he waffled on his VP (forgot the dude's name) after the SHOCK THERAPY-gate, and finally booted him after the entire campaign was about it (and then couldn't find a replacement VP lol). That was what vaporized him, not him getting steamrolled by Nixon or anything.

 

[Abinash117]

I agree. He is the Democrat's Goldwater in the sense that he represents the future and also in the sense that he will get destroyed if he gets the nomination.

That only matters if those people vote in the midterms and Congressmen this presidential election. The future of the Democratic party will probably be slightly more liberal then it is now, but that won't be awhile. It really matters on what younger democrats and young dem-leaning independents do. I think if Hillary wins DNC and Hillary will support candidates that that are the most electable and probably some that is more liberal depending on if they talk the risks, which they might.


Hillary has a messaging problem for younger white voters. I don't think it has anything to do with her policies she laid out this year and last, but more on how she is presenting them or how she is talking about them. Think younger voters value things differently than older ones and she needs to do better job at it.

He's in a good position in most of those states if he wins by 30 points.

Anything at Michigan and below he is not at a good position. Remember Hillary won around half the white liberal vote in IW. She just needs to maintain her lead, but she needs to expand which can help.

 

[Frank the Great]

It depends on the GOP candidate.

The way things are setup these days in terms of cleavages, I can't really see either party falling below 45% of the popular vote and getting at least 150 EVs.

Unless there's a seriously major third party candidate.

Well, it will be a blowout to the biggest extent there can be a blowout nowadays.

And I think it's a good bet that Bloomberg will jump in if Sanders wins, and that would be a disaster for the Dems.

 

[Makai]

Idaho Democrats of what is left of them are very liberal like NH? Very interesting if true. I would expect places like that (WY, UT etc) to be a little more conservative.

Bernie is undeniably a longshot, but his chances improve a lot if he way overperforms in NH and the Hillary team is fired.

 

[benjipwns]

McGovern is most similar to Bernie (in terms of promising stuff that will never come to pass), but his doom happened when he waffled on his VP (forgot the dude's name) after the SHOCK THERAPY-gate, and finally booted him after the entire campaign was about it (and then couldn't find a replacement VP lol). That was what vaporized him, not him getting steamrolled by Nixon or anything.

That's part of what I meant in terms of terrible campaign. McGovern was also unprepared for a national campaign, and lots of Democrats (unions, old bosses, etc.) sat on their hands because they disliked him. (Goldwater faced the same thing in 1964 with his establishment sitting on their hands...except Nixon. Who knew that for 1968 he needed to get Goldwater's support.)

"Acid, Amnesty and Abortion" also did major damage to him, that's what battered the New Deal Coalition. (And like say...the Obama birther campaign...it started in the Democratic Primaries!)

Nixon basically just swept up the pieces because he wasn't (yet) seen as too bad. It's similar to Goldwater, Landon and Mondale's landslides in that it was less about what the winner did right than what all went wrong for the loser that made it into a landslide.

Nixon was likely to win in 1972 anyway, almost everything the McGovern campaign did just turned that into an outright disaster. Mondale was a very similar situation.

 

[And_Gignac]

Bernie is undeniably a longshot, but his chances improve a lot if he way overperforms in NH and the Hillary team is fired.

He needs to perform well in Nevada. New Hampshire may help, but I dont see a lot coming out of it. Hispanics skew younger so who knows, maybe something will happen in Nevada. I am not expecting it, though.

 

[benjipwns]

Bernie is undeniably a longshot, but his chances improve a lot if he way overperforms in NH and the Hillary team is fired.

Except, wouldn't the Hillary team that's being fired be the one that's ran her into two on-paper defeats?

 

[ivysaur12]

What I hope for:

Trump
Kasich
Bush
Cruz
Rubio
Christie
Carson
Fiorina

What I the cynic in me is preparing for:

Trump
Rubio
Kasich
Cruz
Bush
Christie
Carson
Fiorina

 

[benjipwns]

The Jim Gilmore ignorance in this thread is sickening, as he himself noted:

Jim GilmoreVerified account
‏@gov_gilmore
Started out as 1 of 17 GOP Candidates, now with Rand Paul & Rick Santorum out, 1 or 9. #StillStanding

At this rate, he's assured of both parties nominations.

 

[NeoXChaos]

“I know what’s happening: He is just pissed off,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “He hears the attacks. He saw how close things were in Iowa and he thinks they’re 20 points or whatever down in New Hampshire, so he blows up.

“When he speaks reasonably and in the true Clinton style, he is very effective,” Bannon added. “But when he goes crazy because he’s pissed off about the thing, that hurts her.”

Bill Clinton’s aggressiveness, those in the orbit of the Clintons say, is rooted in at least two factors.

First of all, the former president has believed for some time that the campaign has not been vigorous enough in countering Sanders’s populist rhetoric.

Secondly, Bill Clinton was conspicuously unhappy with the Iowa result, allies maintain — despite the campaign’s desire to put a brave face on the outcome and Hillary Clinton’s remark on caucus night that she was breathing a sigh of relief.

One ally said Bill Clinton was “peeved”; another, more colorfully, described his mood as “rip shit.”

Iowa gave added sharpness to the 42nd president’s existing frustrations.

“He’s had enough of this,” one supporter said.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/268690-clinton-attacks-on-sanders-make-dems-nervous

 

[benjipwns]

If he stays in past NH, I should start a Jim Gilmore |OT| "35 votes and counting... #StillStanding"

 

[Bowdz]

Bernie is undeniably a longshot, but his chances improve a lot if he way overperforms in NH and the Hillary team is fired.

Agreed.

I doubt Hillary will maintain such decisive leads in NV and SC if Bernie blows it out tomorrow. She still has a demographic advantage, but as Halperin and Heilman said, there is a relatively long gap between NH and NV and the prevailing narrative will lead for much of that gap. AKA "Bernie destroys NH favorite daughter Hillary Clinton" for two weeks.

I also hope the Clinton's don't gut their campaign team. By all measures it has performed brilliantly. It is her messaging that has been shit for the better part of last year. Big Dog was also probably right this cycle and last, Hilldawg should have buried Bernie early last year before he built up steam.

 

[ugaboga232]

Ok whats this about the FBI confirming the investigation on hillary, I assume it means nothing and just want to get a better understanding.

 

[Overlee]

The DNC is starting to look as disconnected as the GOP did '08. Why don't the older generations ever learn? This world is facing global problems that can't be solved with the pace and ideas that our current 2 party system holds.

Youth vote is ready for an Age of Responsibility!

 

[Teggy]

Is Gilmore actually campaigning in any way? I could stay in the campaign through all 50 states too if I didn't buy any ads, hold any events or participate in any debates.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Agreed.

I doubt Hillary will maintain such decisive leads in NV and SC if Bernie blows it out tomorrow. She still has a demographic advantage, but as Halperin and Heilman said, there is a relatively long gap between NH and NV and the prevailing narrative will lead for much of that gap. AKA "Bernie destroys NH favorite daughter Hillary Clinton" for two weeks.

I also hope the Clinton's don't gut their campaign team. By all measures it has performed brilliantly. It is her messaging that has been shit for the better part of last year. Big Dog was also probably right this cycle and last, Hilldawg should have buried Bernie early last year before he built up steam.

Take a page out of 08. No drama Obama. Its a delegate fight. Grind it out. The sky is not falling. Find a coherent message. Stick with it.

 

[dramatis]

The DNC is starting to look as disconnected as the GOP did '08. Why don't the older generations ever learn? This world is facing global problems that can't be solved with the pace and ideas that our current 2 party system holds.

Youth vote is ready for an Age of Responsibility!

Only ever ready to be responsible when it's a presidential election, apparently

 

[Iolo]

The coming states aren't nearly as white, that lead won't hold.

Uh, yeah, it won't hold, but those kind of margins would mean he could win some big states regardless. You can't overcome 9:1 margins everywhere.

Those numbers are either sampling error or huge trouble.

 

[RustyNails]

Nixon was likely to win in 1972 anyway, almost everything the McGovern campaign did just turned that into an outright disaster.

I mean, I don't know how McGovern actually ran his campaign but yeah, if you couldn't pull a win out of watergate indictments during your election season, you're probably the worst campaigner to ever run for office.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Uh, yeah, it won't hold, but those kind of margins would mean he could win some big states regardless. You can't overcome 9:1 margins everywhere.

Those numbers are either sampling error or huge trouble.

are you extrapolating a 91-8 among 18-34 woman in lets say Texas being enough to win there? He's not doing that here in La I can tell you that now.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Uh, yeah, it won't hold, but those kind of margins would mean he could win some big states regardless. You can't overcome 9:1 margins everywhere.

Those numbers are either sampling error or huge trouble.

I have yet to see a state that Sanders is leading in the polls in beyond NH. We just got three today. NC, MI, and Arkansas. Have there been any?

 

[Overlee]

Only ever ready to be responsible when it's a presidential election, apparently

You think the BLM movement or the March for $15 or the People's Climate March and any other grassroots movement reflects your opinion?

 

[thepotatoman]

Why we always gotta use Goldwater.

Why not William Jennings Bryan? (Lost everytime. Reformed the Democratic Party from liberal to progressive through sheer force of will.)

Why not George McGovern? (Ran a terrible campaign and got vaporized. Led the New Left to fracture the New Deal coalition.)

Why not Walter Mondale? (Tone-deaf campaign sent the Democrats fleeing into the arms of the DLC.)

etc.

McGovern/Mondale marked the end of an era, not the beginning of one. They're probably closer to what the republican party is seeing now.

William Jennings Bryan is probably a decent example, though that's rather far back in history.

 

[dabig2]

That's part of what I meant in terms of terrible campaign. McGovern was also unprepared for a national campaign, and lots of Democrats (unions, old bosses, etc.) sat on their hands because they disliked him. (Goldwater faced the same thing in 1964 with his establishment sitting on their hands...except Nixon. Who knew that for 1968 he needed to get Goldwater's support.)

"Acid, Amnesty and Abortion" also did major damage to him, that's what battered the New Deal Coalition. (And like say...the Obama birther campaign...it started in the Democratic Primaries!)

Nixon basically just swept up the pieces because he wasn't (yet) seen as too bad. It's similar to Goldwater, Landon and Mondale's landslides in that it was less about what the winner did right than what all went wrong for the loser that made it into a landslide.

Nixon was likely to win in 1972 anyway, almost everything the McGovern campaign did just turned that into an outright disaster. Mondale was a very similar situation.

Quite hard to pin it on any 1 thing yeah. But I would point to the Moral Majority as the big disruption back then. There was legit anger and bounce-back against the Vietnam protests, civil rights, and womens' rights. This is the era where Phyllis Schlafly was a household name. Republicans smartly outmaneuvered Democrats on many social issues and were able to connect that with neoconservatism throughout the 70s, culminating in the Reagan Revolution of 1980.

 

[benjipwns]

Jeb Bush said Monday he would "eliminate" the Supreme Court decision that paved the way for super PACs.

"If I could do it all again I'd eliminate the Supreme Court ruling" Citizens United, Bush told CNN's Dana Bash. "This is a ridiculous system we have now where you have campaigns that struggle to raise money directly and they can't be held accountable for the spending of the super PAC that's their affiliate."

Fuck off slaver.

Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
Now that Bush has wasted $120 million of special interest money on his failed campaign, he says he would end super PACs. Sad!
2:47 PM - 8 Feb 2016

 

[Teggy]

It reads like he thinks that corporations should be able to donate unlimited funds directly to campaigns, not that he wants it to go back to how things were.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/268690-clinton-attacks-on-sanders-make-dems-nervous

Still a reckless asshole, I see. Lost a lot of respect for Bill in 08. I understand it must be frustrating for a master politician to watch a "not good" politician struggle like this, given the advantages she has, but his behavior goes beyond concerned and into destructive. There were a lot of bombs that could have been hurled during that election from the Obama camp, and the media was more than willing to carry it, but cooler heads prevailed because ultimately Hillary could have won the nomination and no true democrat would harm their candidate. The Clinton camp did not share that sentiment.

I honestly think that if Obama was white the Clintons would have stayed in the race longer and been more active in begging/bribing super delegates.

 

[Macho Madness]

Let's dispel this notion that Trump doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

I also hope the Clinton's don't gut their campaign team. By all measures it has performed brilliantly. It is her messaging that has been shit for the better part of last year. Big Dog was also probably right this cycle and last, Hilldawg should have buried Bernie early last year before he built up steam.

Yeah, that would be the entirely wrong move in my mind. Bernie and Hillary seem to have opposite problems. Bernie hits all the right notes in terms of staying on-message and having a clearly defined platform, but his campaign staff could definitely be improved. Hillary has a pretty great staff as far as I can tell but her messaging is... what, exactly?

Replacing staff after an NH blowout would only feed into the narrative that Hillary is getting nervous, ceding ground etc and wouldn't actually do anything to fix those issues, because her staff doesn't seem to be the problem. Having the Obama machine doesn't mean shit if you won't/can't peddle some hope and change.

 

[neurosisxeno]

I have yet to see a state that Sanders is leading in the polls in beyond NH. We just got three today. NC, MI, and Arkansas. Have there been any?

For some reason nobody is polling anything other than IA, NH, and SC. Not even Nevada has a poll that's newer than a month old. Arkansas was always going to go for Clinton because of Bill, and NC and MI I think will be closer by the time their primaries come up.

Looking at RCP's history of recent polls Wisconsin has Hillary winning at +2 before IA, so for all we know it could be a veritable tie. I thought I saw some pretty favorable Oregon and\or Washington numbers for him too. At the beginning of January he was only down 11 in CA, which is pretty damn big.

 

[Iolo]

are you extrapolating a 91-8 among 18-34 woman in lets say Texas being enough to win there? He's not doing that here in La I can tell you that now.

No, but limiting to TX, LA, GA, NC as the standard is not particularly telling. Caucus states is a major vulnerability with excited 9:1 margins.

Mostly I'm extrapolating that the glorious Socialist Republic is already upon us.

Youth vote is ready for an Age of Responsibility!

they could start by moving out and paying their own goddamn cell phone bills already