shinra-bansho
Member
What on earth has Carson done that he finds himself in the middle of that ordering... how does Trump end up at the top...
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
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benjipwns
Banned
Fiorina and Gilmore are still in the race, buddy.
Carly's daughter died from marijuana.
It might have hurt him politically, but I'll love him forever for it.
Honestly, for me, it's not even a question of who is worse. We're fucked if any of them get in. I think how bad things end up in terms of appointments or policy will depend far more on luck than on the slight differences between the candidates. So for me the biggest fear is who is most likely to win. Rubio has obvious advantages, and Kasich has his "what a reasonable guy" magic spell, so they're the ones I'm most concerned about. I'm definitely not pulling for a Kasich 2nd place in NH. Go Jeb!
Black Republican
Member
Cruz ahead of bush? Damn you evil💀💀
FloydtheFathead
Member
The hell kinda frat houses is he goin to?
Was Rubio down yesterday in ARG?
[Insert Candidate Here]-mentum!
By the way, Dem side was 53-44 in favor of Sanders.
gutter_trash
Banned
the Bush family do have ties in NH and a base.
I believe that Jeb! will do better than Rubio.
I just hope that both these neocons keep on dividing themselves.
Keep the clownshow going longer
I believe that Jeb! will do better than Rubio.
I just hope that both these neocons keep on dividing themselves.
Keep the clownshow going longer
Does he mean wet T-shirt contests? Chugging competitions? Fraternity hazing? Torture interrogations? I've seen them myself, I teach Physics.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I can't understand why ARG structurally favour Sanders compared to the average pollster in Iowa then disfavour him in New Hampshire. Most pollsters are consistent in that respect; and the tables don't provide much illumination either. It's giving my aggregate a big-ass error term because after Iowa Marist and ARG are weighted quite highly but they're at polar ends of the spectrum in NH. ;_;
EDIT: It's like an 8 point error term fuck this shit how do you even make predictions.
EDIT: It's like an 8 point error term fuck this shit how do you even make predictions.
benjipwns
Banned
Rubio went up and then has fallen off: 14->15->16->17->16->14
Trump: 34->36->34->31->30->33
Kasich: 13->14->17->17->16->17
Christie: 6->6->5->5->6->8
I think Christie grabbed some points from that Rubio smash.
And was 61-30 a week ago.
Carson's going to dead cat bounce!
8 point error? That's basically into throwing a dart at the wall territory.
I would say Sanders is pretty left while Hillary is center leaning right. I drew a quick diagram of how the US sees it:
This might be the most hilarious image in the history of PoliGAF. You are WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY off, Dead wrong, complete bullshit. Wow.
You based that just on how you feel in your gut? Because that is dead wrong based on policy, proposals, voting records, and campaign statements.
Veritigo_X
Member
Going with:
Trump
Kasich
Bush (lol)
Rubio
Cruz
Who cares
Might as well dream big.
Trump
Kasich
Bush (lol)
Rubio
Cruz
Who cares
Might as well dream big.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Doesn't look like Rubio had any voters switch off him from debate.
What time does polling start?
What time does it end?
When do we get results?
When do I go to Reddit to find all Sanders front page?
What time does polling start?
What time does it end?
When do we get results?
When do I go to Reddit to find all Sanders front page?
cartoon_soldier
Member
11:30 wtf?
two hours ago
7est
7est
If polls are right we may get both calls for Trump and Sanders right then and there.
okay mr cocky. Lets see about that.
Plus if I read it correctly, she communicated the US policy to Israel but in private believed it wouldn't work and didn't want to make the proposal public.
I am in a weird space - I much prefer Bernie over Hillary simply cause of his views on domestic issues and the economy but his lack of foreign policy experience scares me. What scares me even more is the thought of any of these Republican clowns as President.
Veritigo_X
Member
I almost think it's possible for Cruz to finish above Rubio. We've been seeing some momentum from him in the polls too. Gonna be a crazy night for sure!
When does NH polling close? For some reason I assumed it was pretty late. Looks like it is actually 7. PoliGAF will start to panic at about 8 then
You get a mentum, you get a mentum, and you get a mentum! Mentums for everyone!
I still think he'll get second or third. He's going down, but I'm not sure it's happening quickly enough.
I'm on the Kasich train for tonight. He'll place well, but then have nowhere to go.
Father_Brain
Banned
Saying Hillary is "pandering" on Israel is giving her too much credit, sadly. I think she genuinely believes that the interests of both countries are served by keeping as little daylight as possible between them.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
What on earth has Carson done that he finds himself in the middle of that ordering... how does Trump end up at the top...
Trump is by far the least dangerous of any candidate.
Carson is in the bottom half but not the bottom because he has made it clear he would be reasonable about war, etc. Cruz and Rubio are far, far worse and would get us into elongated wars again. I don't see Carson doing that at all.
He'd still be a terrible president, just not as bad as the other two.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
When does NH polling close? For some reason I assumed it was pretty late. Looks like it is actually 7. PoliGAF will start to panic at about 8 then
It's hold-onto-your-butts territory if both primaries aren't called at 7.
Checked in photoshop, either they are exactly the same or he accidentally posted the same graph twice
Macho Madness
Member
Wow people are posting Matt Bruenig stuff now?
Macho Madness
Member
Just for a frame of reference. Seems like they tend to overstate the leading poller. The question is by how much.
It was my mistake copying the images.
I don't know about harassing women, I was simply linked to Matt via a Vox article.
Bernie Sanders is the future of the Democratic Party
Tesseract
Banned
reposting as my coffee brews, lez do this
I would too after what Right to Rise did for him
Veritigo_X
Member
benjipwns
Banned
Young adult website Vox, and Matt in particular, is adorable.
The Democratic Party doesn't have this benefit.
Americans are a decidedly conservative nation, not in ideology but in temperament, they go for "safe" change. And this includes much of the Democratic Party including the left-wing of the Democratic Party. It's inherently built into our system, we almost naturally seem to create it outside of select epochs. Reagan, Clinton and Obama all showed they weren't radicals but merely opposing the current bad, when all three overstepped a bit they got knocked back, then rewarded for operating within the new hindrance of status quo. W. Bush suffered the same thing on a slightly altered time table because of Senate cycles and arguably 9/11. (And even then, things like the Patriot Act, TARP, etc. were not new government steps, just larger ones on a pre-existing path.) The interest groups of the Democratic Party are as conservative in this manner as the interest groups of the Republican Party. Indeed, you could argue certain segments of the GOP is less conservative when it comes to things like the debt ceiling battle, etc.
The assumption being made is that support for Sanders' candidacy is a support for Sanders' entire message/platform and social democracy/democratic socialism/socialist revolution/communist gulags in general. Rather than the coalescence of an anti-establishment/Washington/Hillary coalition around the only other candidate who happens to have that exact message and is uniquely positioned to deliver it.
No one assumes support for Hillary or Jeb! or Rubio is support for their entire message, yet decidedly ideological candidates are treated this way because it fits the narrative where everyone must be placed in their two sentence little boxes.
They don't just "behave" like that, they are that and have been for nearly a hundred years. The Republicans were too but they managed to kludge together this weird unifying ideology of FUCK YEAH AMERICAAAAAAAAAAAAA FUCK NO TAXXXESSSSSS that let each of the individual components of the party "control" their individual set of issues. And then they all did their own thing because it rarely conflicts.
The Democratic Party doesn't have this benefit.
And here's where Matt drops the ball because he has never really studied history or politics as he'll admit. The left-wing of the party is just another one of those fractious interest groups that makes up the Democratic Party. Reforming it into a decidedly left-wing counterforce to the Republicans gets it battered 60+% of the time outside of enclaves because when the party commits ideologically in such a way, it drives out interest groups that get the shaft in the pursuit of an ideological purity.
Americans are a decidedly conservative nation, not in ideology but in temperament, they go for "safe" change. And this includes much of the Democratic Party including the left-wing of the Democratic Party. It's inherently built into our system, we almost naturally seem to create it outside of select epochs. Reagan, Clinton and Obama all showed they weren't radicals but merely opposing the current bad, when all three overstepped a bit they got knocked back, then rewarded for operating within the new hindrance of status quo. W. Bush suffered the same thing on a slightly altered time table because of Senate cycles and arguably 9/11. (And even then, things like the Patriot Act, TARP, etc. were not new government steps, just larger ones on a pre-existing path.) The interest groups of the Democratic Party are as conservative in this manner as the interest groups of the Republican Party. Indeed, you could argue certain segments of the GOP is less conservative when it comes to things like the debt ceiling battle, etc.
The assumption being made is that support for Sanders' candidacy is a support for Sanders' entire message/platform and social democracy/democratic socialism/socialist revolution/communist gulags in general. Rather than the coalescence of an anti-establishment/Washington/Hillary coalition around the only other candidate who happens to have that exact message and is uniquely positioned to deliver it.
No one assumes support for Hillary or Jeb! or Rubio is support for their entire message, yet decidedly ideological candidates are treated this way because it fits the narrative where everyone must be placed in their two sentence little boxes.
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