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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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rjinaz

Member
Oh god Jeb.

CayaEz4WwAAIdts.png:large


https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/697101453819846656?s=09

Lol, it's true though. Can you imagine what it must be like to try and socialize with that man? His ego probably can't be contained within the room he is in. More so the case when he is in his own /castle domain.

I can't believe his supporters actually perceive that man as "one of them" sort of speak. If not running for election, Trump would pay to have many if not most of his supports removed from his sight as to not spoil his view.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
It's hard to hype about something you know the outcome of. Right now I'm pretty sure most people agree that the Dem result in Nevada is infinitely more exciting and buttclenching in the imagination than NH or SC.


Republicans and Democrats holding their primaries on different days for some reason

yup. I am pumped for SC and NV since I get to make the thread.
 
Yes of course. It seems like there is zero interest in the left on what is going down in the Dem primary tonight. On GAF and just about everywhere. GOP turn out is going to beat the Dem similar to Iowa likely.

Hahaha ok Cheebo. Maybe if Hillary was leading you would perceive things in a different light?


Sanders may get more vote than Clinton got in 2008, that would be a democratic record, I pressume.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
Going to reply to these in tandem because they're pretty similar sentiments.

Student debt, health care costs, and under employment are all examples that have had dramatic progress in the last 8 years. Dramatic. The expansion of Pell has done remarkable amount of good to people and $5,000 a year should not be considered imperceptible. ACA has dramatically reduced the uninsured rate, helped young people in particular, and slowed the insane rate of growth in health care costs. Over the past 6 years U6 has fallen from 17 to 10%.

People have benefited from federal policy in tangible and substantial ways, across all ages. I can't see how anyone can practically argue with that.

Wanting more is wonderful and something I'm on board with as well, but it brings up the practical question of how to acquire that. Bernie is not well positioned to effect change because he won't have a congressional majority, doesn't have experience with the executive levers of power (they're already being used to near maximum effect regardless), has a legislative strategy perfectly designed to ruin the current legislative de-escalation, and is completely unconcerned about the practical details of policy. Being more ideologically pure does not get better results.

Obama's policies to repair those problems were well-intentioned, but all of them where effectively band-aids. Pell Grants help those who can afford them, but as tuition continues to rise, and as degrees become necessary to earn a living wage, they aren't relevant to most Americans. Obamacare is an improvement, but many Americans are still in need of effective healthcare. Personally, I believe it's inherently unethical to ask citizens to pay for necessary procedures.

I agree that we can't expect Bernie Sanders to see all of his preferred policies through, but putting somebody in the White House who actually seeks to reverse the trend of wealth division, and can be expected to use all available resources to do so, is a better option than electing someone who does not see America's wealth distribution as one of our most significant problems. Hillary Clinton cannot be expected to be more effective in the bully pulpit than Bernie Sanders. Without a congressional majority, electing a moderate brings no benefit over electing a leftist.
 

benjipwns

Banned
In other news, the Michigan Senate recently passed a sweeping animal protection bill. Which is great, except when you find this paragraph buried within:



So in this giant bill purely about animal cruelty
http://www.legislature.mi.gov/documents/2015-2016/billengrossed/Senate/pdf/2015-SEBS-0219.pdf
there is a reference to "the abominable and detestable crime against nature" with no definition whatsoever, oh and by the way it also applies to mankind. Essentially the Michigan senate just made anal sex a felony in their animal cruelty bill in the most vague way possible.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1181540
 
Ben Carson will not be attending his New Hampshire election party tonight, will fly to South Carolina instead, campaign says. -@KFaulders

i love Ben, i honestly dont know who will drop out first between Carly and him

#ThisTrainNeverStops
 
Hahaha ok Cheebo. Maybe if Hillary was leading you would perceive things in a different light?


Sanders may get more vote than Clinton got in 2008, that would be a democratic record, I pressume.

If Hillary was leading in NH, that would be a huge story. Bernie leading in NH is like Hillary leading in South Carolina. It just doesn't really matter. It's like a Republican winning Utah. I mean, the margin will be interesting, but that's about it. I really doubt Dem turn out will be higher than in 2008. He may get more votes than she did then, though. Overall, though, I think GOP turnout will be up over 08 and 12, because we're just incredibly boring with this primary.
 
Hahaha ok Cheebo. Maybe if Hillary was leading you would perceive things in a different light?


Sanders may get more vote than Clinton got in 2008, that would be a democratic record, I pressume.

If Hillary was leading, that would be bizarre, and thus worthy of attention.

As is, Bernie winning NH is basically exactly as expected. "Sun rises in east" isn't a news story :p
 

PBY

Banned
Did they accidentally make their test results public?

Appears so:
“During routine testing in preparation for the New Hampshire primary a malfunction occurred which briefly showed errant data on our website,” Fox News Chief Digital Officer Jeff Misenti said in a statement. “This error has been rectified. We apologize for any confusion this may have caused.”
 

Valhelm

contribute something
i love Ben, i honestly dont know who will drop out first between Carly and him

#ThisTrainNeverStops

Ben Carson still has some serious support! He'll likely do somewhat well in Nevada and South Carolina, while Fiorina can't be expected to keep much momentum after tonight.

4e49633e06.png
 
The question was why young people are supporting Sanders, not whether or not they're being practical about it. It's really surprising that by this point you guys seem to not understand that politics is mostly about presentation and emotion because the majority of people don't pay attention to things below the surface.

Try explaining what you posted to someone who is being crushed by student debt while working multiple sub-living wage jobs with little to no security due to unions being more or less destroyed. You are not being empathetic here, you're looking at the situation from a dispassionate point of view rather than trying to understand how people in their 20s actually feel about the situation. Very few people are going to be swayed by policy talk about "well it could have been worse!" when they don't feel like they are on the upswing. It doesn't matter if what he proposes is plausible or not, it matters that people feel like they have a candidate who actually understands them and cares about their needs. I'm not saying this as a positive or a negative, I'm saying that this is why many young people support Bernie Sanders, and Hillary would be wise to try to co-opt that fire that he's started.

Probably for the most part true. I think since many of the younger voters aren't particularly that invested all that in politics they care more about presentation and emotion possibly, when you have Sanders who is really mostly about the economy and wallstreet, he gives them answers to the issue even if none of his ideas are going to get past. Plus, he is passionate and consistent so in style he is their "Obama" . Although, he is only Obama to a certain demo and not to the entirety of the democratic party. He is doing well in states he is expected to be good in, but it remains to be seen if he does well in states that are more racially and ideologically diverse; there's evidence that he is not.


Hillary just has a messaging problem, I believe she can sell her ideas. I don't think she should try to be too similar. What she could is better push the narrative that she is a progressive that can get things done and has a better grasp on the situation to tackle it without sounding arrogant, and she should run more issues that matter most young voters. Which would be income equality, climate change, college debt, etc . Some things like equal pay, abortion, foreign policy is something I doubt the young white voters care about.

I think it is true that young voters necessarily don't care about wealth distribution in itself, but they support whatever ideas that help benefit them from what I know young white voters are almost as conservative as their parents were. Bernie most likely has many young voters that are almost likely single issue voters .
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Probably for the most part true. I think since many of the younger voters aren't particularly that invested all that in politics they care more about presentation and emotion possibly, when you have Sanders who is really mostly about the economy and wallstreet, he gives them answers to the issue even if none of his ideas are going to get past. Plus, he is passionate and consistent so in style he is their "Obama" . Although, he is only Obama to a certain demo and not to the entirety of the democratic party. He is doing well in states he is expected to be good in, but it remains to be seen if he does well in states that are more racially and ideologically diverse; there's evidence that he is not.


Hillary just has a messaging problem, I believe she can sell her ideas. I don't think she should try to be too similar. What she could is better push the narrative that she is a progressive that can get things done and has a better grasp on the situation to tackle it without sounding arrogant, and she should run more issues that matter most young voters. Which would be income equality, climate change, college debt, etc . Some things like equal pay, abortion, foreign policy is something I doubt the young white voters care about.

I think it is true that young voters necessarily don't care about wealth distribution in itself, but they support whatever ideas that help benefit them from what I know young white voters are almost as conservative as their parents were. Bernie most likely has many young voters that are almost likely single issue voters .

His economic message should resonate with blacks 18-29. SC will tell us if it does or other issues take precedent like criminal justice reform etc.
 
If Trump wins by that margin he activates SUPER MODE and steamrolls the rest.

Besides, we should be so lucky to have Hillary run against Marcosoft Ruboto.

I'm not afraid of Rubotio anymore. Cruz even scares me more at this point.

I just want another establishment candidate getting second to add to the GOPe clusterfuck. Seeing everyone rally behind Jeb again would be something else.
 
If Trump wins by that margin he activates SUPER MODE and steamrolls the rest.

Besides, we should be so lucky to have Hillary run against Marcosoft Ruboto.
You don't think that the party establishment would try and still get behind Rubio if he still finishes second? Or is he that damaged that there's no way donors are going to still get behind him.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Nevada and South Carolina, the next two contests, will be the first states with sizable Hispanic and African American electorates, respectively.

An analysis of Washington Post/ABC News polls over the past couple of months gives a broad sense of how the dynamic could shift.

Clinton led Sanders 70 percent to 21 percent among African American, Hispanic and other non-white women who were likely to vote for a Democrat, according to combined polls in January and February. She enjoyed a large but significantly smaller margin — 52 percent to 36 percent — among white women.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...tory.html?postshare=191454987118257&tid=ss_tw
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
You don't think that the party establishment would try and still get behind Rubio if he still finishes second? Or is he that damaged that there's no way donors are going to still get behind him.

No, I just think a malfunctioning robot will be easy to beat in the general. Especially if he winds up going against someone able to speak intelligently on issues off the cuff.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I meant 18-29 like this graph shows. He's probably going to be destroyed with them over 30. He might do well with blacks and Latinos 18-29.

According to the NBC poll in the link I posted earlier on the page, Bernie's getting killed in those demos.

d-race_6fd34edd0e5ef3051f0f980d3721abd9.nbcnews-ux-600-700.png


Which is the same poll you refrence. His numbers with whites are masking the problem he has demographically. His message is having a hard time breaking racial barriers, as well as age ones.
 
The main event on the Dem side is South Carolina, where we see if Bernie can find a way to not get blown out, and turn the whole thing into a real contest.

On the republican side, NH is probably the most important of the 4 early states, so I definitely think that is the one to pay attention to.
What were the latest poll numbers in SC? Last time I saw a SC poll, I believe Sanders was in the 5-10% range.

As for the republican side, I'm not sure NH is gonna be as decisive as you may think. We could see some of the bottom dwellers drop out.
 
Do you think I could call off on my 2nd day of work because I need to watch the results come in? Like....would they approve that, you think?
 
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