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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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C

cartoon_soldier

Member
PBY said:
No turnout anecdotes?

No fake/real news to report?

No random campaign leaks?

WTF @ this primary so far
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DzJGD9H.gif
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
538 posted yesterday that young Americans aren't really that supportive of wealth redistribution.... making their support of Sanders pretty strange but maybe they're just interested in college debt?

Most young American economic surveying comes out as extremely confused and contradictory so the odds Socialism actually emerges as the dominant force of the Democratic party are not as high as they would seem.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
538 posted yesterday that young Americans aren't really that supportive of wealth redistribution.... making their support of Sanders pretty strange but maybe they're just interested in college debt?

Most young American economic surveying comes out as extremely confused and contradictory so the odds Socialism actually emerges as the dominant force of the Democratic party are not as high as they would seem.
Click to expand...
Right, Bernie has lots of planks that can bring in young voters simply from what we know about young voters. Drug policy, college debt policies, anti-war, anti-spying, etc. And he seems more "fresh" and trustworthy than Hillary to tackle some of these. That doesn't mean they're on board for the entire Sanders revolution.

And for minorities it is seemingly the inverse, despite the not so vast differences in their policy planks.

Bernie and Trump as much represent a frustration and independent streak as they do a hard ideological revolution of some kind that we should draw longterm trends of the two parties from.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
benjipwns said:
Right, Bernie has lots of planks that can bring in young voters simply from what we know about young voters. Drug policy, college debt policies, anti-war, anti-spying, etc. And he seems more "fresh" and trustworthy than Hillary to tackle some of these. That doesn't mean they're on board for the entire Sanders revolution.

And for minorities it is seemingly the inverse, despite the not so vast differences in their policy planks.

Bernie and Trump as much represent a frustration and independent streak as they do a hard ideological revolution of some kind that we should draw longterm trends of the two parties from.
Click to expand...

Democrats aren't really that frustrated and angry though based on that recent polling I've seen... And Bernie isn't really anti-war or coherent-about-war. Not sure exactly why Bernie has captured youth imagination that much, will be interesting to see the studies on it.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
http://theresurgent.com/the-marco-rubio-robot-bull/
Much of the political press leans left and has zero experience in politics. Perhaps they graduated Ivy League, did a tour or two at Salon or some lefty blog, then got in on the ground floor at a national media outlet covering politics. They can afford to split rent with five other bros or gals, buy a couple pairs of skinny jeans that they’ll refer to in the singular as a pant or a jean, and silently mock all the people they encounter on the campaign trail who are not cool or sophisticated or dressed like they robbed a Goodwill store in Bangkok. These political reporters have decided that Marco Rubio is a robot because they hear him repeat his lines all the time. They are idiots and Marco knows what he is doing.

The truth of the matter is that while the candidates on the debate stage with Marco and the reporters who resentfully follow him around all the time have heard the same lines over and over and over, most of the American public has not. And when the people in Nashua, NH hear it for the first time, it may be new to the press, but in Manchester it is new to the crowd and old to the press. By the time Rubio gets to Lebanon, NH, the crowd again hears it for the first time, but the press has heard it incessantly.

Therefore Rubio is a robot to the press and his debate stage opponents.

To the public, though, he is on message. For eight years the GOP elite and pundit class have bitched and moaned that the GOP needed to stay focused and on message. Along come Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio who both relentlessly stay on message and the GOP have decided one is unlikable and the other is a robot. It is all nonsense. It is a mutually sympathetic circle jerk of pundits and press racing each other to come up with the wittiest stereotype to capture the imagination of bored politicos tired of the cold in Iowa and New Hampshire. It is a game to the press, but is a life and death, daily struggle to the voters who yearn for something more and something else. Just as the “Cruz is not likable” line is unfair to Cruz, the “Rubio is a robot” line is unfair to Rubio. Cruz may be unlikable to Washington politicos and Rubio a repetitive robot to the same group, but the American public have not seemed to notice.

Just read this from Chris Cillizza.

The first time you watch Marco Rubio debate, you will almost certainly be wowed. He speaks not in sentences but in paragraphs. He has an answer, fully formed, for every question. He comes across as deeply well-versed and well-spoken on, well, everything.

The second time you watch Rubio debate, you’ll probably feel the same. Maybe even the third time.

But, over time, you’ll start to notice that the paragraphs that Rubio speaks in start to sound a lot alike. That’s because they are. And, you’ll start to see Rubio as less the smartest kid in the class and more as the kid who memorized every answer in the book but doesn’t have much of a clue about what it all really means.
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Who the hell watches debates that much besides the political junkies and the press? I eat, breathe, and sleep this business, have flown to several debates, and been to my fair share of Iowa diners. Even I have not watched all the debates. The American people surely have not.

...

The Circle of Jerks may be tired of it, but the American people are only just tuning in. That the media and Rubio’s political opponents have generated an entire caricature of Rubio over his ability to stay on message says more about Rubio’s critics than it does Rubio. In a season when nobody knows what anybody stands for, Rubio’s repetition paints his positions in bold colors. Everyone knows where he stands — he thinks Barack Obama has committed malfeasance in office while Chris Christie, who attacked Rubio for repetition, cannot stay on message on guns, abortion, or even whether what he thinks of Barack Obama.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/09/opinion/i-miss-barack-obama.html?_r=0
As this primary season has gone along, a strange sensation has come over me: I miss Barack Obama. Now, obviously I disagree with a lot of Obama’s policy decisions. I’ve been disappointed by aspects of his presidency. I hope the next presidency is a philosophic departure.

But over the course of this campaign it feels as if there’s been a decline in behavioral standards across the board. Many of the traits of character and leadership that Obama possesses, and that maybe we have taken too much for granted, have suddenly gone missing or are in short supply.

The first and most important of these is basic integrity. The Obama administration has been remarkably scandal-free.

...

Hillary Clinton is constantly having to hold these defensive press conferences when she’s trying to explain away some vaguely shady shortcut she’s taken, or decision she has made, but Obama has not had to do that.

He and his wife have not only displayed superior integrity themselves, they have mostly attracted and hired people with high personal standards. There are all sorts of unsightly characters floating around politics, including in the Clinton camp and in Gov. Chris Christie’s administration. This sort has been blocked from team Obama.

Second, a sense of basic humanity. ...

He’s exuded this basic care and respect for the dignity of others time and time again. Let’s put it this way: Imagine if Barack and Michelle Obama joined the board of a charity you’re involved in. You’d be happy to have such people in your community. Could you say that comfortably about Ted Cruz? The quality of a president’s humanity flows out in the unexpected but important moments.

Third, a soundness in his decision-making process. ...

Obama’s basic approach is to promote his values as much as he can within the limits of the situation. Bernie Sanders, by contrast, has been so blinded by his values that the reality of the situation does not seem to penetrate his mind.

Take health care. Passing Obamacare was a mighty lift that led to two gigantic midterm election defeats. As Megan McArdle pointed out in her Bloomberg View column, Obamacare took coverage away from only a small minority of Americans. Sanderscare would take employer coverage away from tens of millions of satisfied customers, destroy the health insurance business and levy massive new tax hikes. This is epic social disruption.

To think you could pass Sanderscare through a polarized Washington and in a country deeply suspicious of government is to live in intellectual fairyland. President Obama may have been too cautious, especially in the Middle East, but at least he’s able to grasp the reality of the situation.

Fourth, grace under pressure. I happen to find it charming that Marco Rubio gets nervous on the big occasions — that he grabs for the bottle of water, breaks out in a sweat and went robotic in the last debate. It shows Rubio is a normal person. And I happen to think overconfidence is one of Obama’s great flaws. But a president has to maintain equipoise under enormous pressure. Obama has done that, especially amid the financial crisis. After Saturday night, this is now an open question about Rubio.

Fifth, a resilient sense of optimism. ...

People are motivated to make wise choices more by hope and opportunity than by fear, cynicism, hatred and despair. Unlike many current candidates, Obama has not appealed to those passions.

No, Obama has not been temperamentally perfect. Too often he’s been disdainful, aloof, resentful and insular. But there is a tone of ugliness creeping across the world, as democracies retreat, as tribalism mounts, as suspiciousness and authoritarianism take center stage.

Obama radiates an ethos of integrity, humanity, good manners and elegance that I’m beginning to miss, and that I suspect we will all miss a bit, regardless of who replaces him.
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G

Gruco

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Democrats aren't really that frustrated and angry though based on that recent polling I've seen... And Bernie isn't really anti-war or coherent-about-war. Not sure exactly why Bernie has captured youth imagination that much, will be interesting to see the studies on it.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this is part of why I find his success amazing. I think there's still an incredible amount of frustration about 2008 and the failure of OWS. Beyond that, I am learning that a decent chuck of Obama's support was probably as much anti-Hills as it was probama.

Even so, it's so strange. 8 years of meaningful progress and tangible victories = TIME FOR REVOLUTION.

benjipwns said:
These political reporters have decided that Marco Rubio is a robot because they hear him repeat his lines all the time. They are idiots and Marco knows what he is doing.
Click to expand...
I think it's time we dispelled with the fiction that Marco Rubio doesn't know what he's doing. Marco Rubio knows exactly what he's doing.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Drakeon said:
What's this in reference to?
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Hillary's campaign is struggling despite hiring multiple Obama staffers, and you could argue so far she's done worse than she did in 2008 (assuming Sanders blows her out tonight) against inferior competition. It suggests the problem lies with the candidate, not staff or not understanding rules or other technical issues from 08. She's simply not a good politician and people don't believe the things she says.

And tonight if she loses badly, as expected, the knives will come out. She's going to be the nominee and I fully expect her to begin heavily out performing Sanders soon, but the upcoming media shit show tonight and later this week is going to be ugly. You don't want to look weak while being the inevitable nominee. It happened quite a bit to Romney during the 2012 primary.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
Gruco said:
Even so, it's so strange. 8 years of meaningful progress and tangible victories = TIME FOR REVOLUTION.
Click to expand...

Student debt, health care costs, and under employment. People in my generation are constantly stressed and feel like we're making no headway in life. Just because it's stable doesn't mean it's enjoyable or what we want.

We're also much more comfortable with socialism (or "socialism" as it may be) and want to push the boundaries further.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Cheebo said:
Is anyone here even slightly interested how the Dem side plays out or is it all GOP?
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Sanders is winning tonight but the only question is by how much?

The entertainment clownshow on the GOP side is far more intriguing since we know that eventually Hillary is going to clinch by April

I am enjoying the divide among the neocon candidates and the rise of Trump.

Everyone thought we would have a boring ride with Jeb on top, but nope.
Trump has made a number on him leaving the neocon SuperPAC establishment faction wide open between Jeb, Rubio dividing it up
 
R

RustyNails

Member
sphagnum said:
Student debt, health care costs, and under employment. People in my generation are constantly stressed and feel like we're making no headway in life. Just because it's stable doesn't mean it's enjoyable or what we want
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Hasn't every generation graduated with student debt? I mean Obama paid off his debt a year or two before running for office.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Gruco said:
Yeah, this is part of why I find his success amazing. I think there's still an incredible amount of frustration about 2008 and the failure of OWS. Beyond that, I am learning that a decent chuck of Obama's support was probably as much anti-Hills as it was probama.

Even so, it's so strange. 8 years of meaningful progress and tangible victories = TIME FOR REVOLUTION.
Click to expand...

This is everyone poll shows that even in Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton is crushing Sander among Dems. Its Independents that are hugely for Sanders. Presumably if they were happy with the countries direction they would move back to the Democratic party and for HRC.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
RustyNails said:
Hasn't every generation graduated with student debt? I mean Obama paid off his debt a year or two before running for office.
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But its much worse for millennials. I graduated with $30K in student loans at a low interest rate and could manage. My sister is eight years younger than me and graduated with $80k loans at a higher rate, after Republicans wouldn't extend the funding to subsidize rates. She had to live with our Mom for 2 or 3 years to pay them down despite having a good job.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
RustyNails said:
Hasn't every generation graduated with student debt? I mean Obama paid off his debt a year or two before running for office.
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Not to this degree. There's a reason all the analysts are worried about the effect of the current generation on the housing market; graduates are emerging with less ability to take on additional debt than ever before
 
D

daedalius

Member
My wife's student loans are literally destroying us every month, and have been for years, and will continue to do so for years.

Quite disheartening.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
538 posted yesterday that young Americans aren't really that supportive of wealth redistribution.... making their support of Sanders pretty strange but maybe they're just interested in college debt?

Most young American economic surveying comes out as extremely confused and contradictory so the odds Socialism actually emerges as the dominant force of the Democratic party are not as high as they would seem.
Click to expand...

The graph about support for wealth distribution is interesting, but it should be noted that the 65+ crowd is by far the most against redistribution. Maybe it's one thing that Generation X is more liberal on than millinials, but i haven't been able to find the all the GSS data to be sure how things are exactly split.

For the favorables of libertarianism, I think the link between socialism and libertarianism is both are anti corporatist, and that's probably the best explanation for the type of people that have Trump as their second choice after Bernie.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
sphagnum said:
Student debt, health care costs, and under employment. People in my generation are constantly stressed and feel like we're making no headway in life. Just because it's stable doesn't mean it's enjoyable or what we want.

We're also much more comfortable with socialism (or "socialism" as it may be) and want to push the boundaries further.
Click to expand...

Valhelm said:
The progress is imperceptible to anybody who had to find a job or afford college during these past few years.
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Going to reply to these in tandem because they're pretty similar sentiments.

Student debt, health care costs, and under employment are all examples that have had dramatic progress in the last 8 years. Dramatic. The expansion of Pell has done remarkable amount of good to people and $5,000 a year should not be considered imperceptible. ACA has dramatically reduced the uninsured rate, helped young people in particular, and slowed the insane rate of growth in health care costs. Over the past 6 years U6 has fallen from 17 to 10%.

People have benefited from federal policy in tangible and substantial ways, across all ages. I can't see how anyone can practically argue with that.

Wanting more is wonderful and something I'm on board with as well, but it brings up the practical question of how to acquire that. Bernie is not well positioned to effect change because he won't have a congressional majority, doesn't have experience with the executive levers of power (they're already being used to near maximum effect regardless), has a legislative strategy perfectly designed to ruin the current legislative de-escalation, and is completely unconcerned about the practical details of policy. Being more ideologically pure does not get better results.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
theprodigy said:
Because the only thing up for grabs is how much Sanders wins by, whereas the GOP battle for 2nd is pure chaos.
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I'm actually wondering if crossover due to this perception would have a marginal effect for independent voters' decisions in the primaries.

"Well, Sanders(D) has this one in the bag. I'm voting for _______(R) instead!"
 
R

RustyNails

Member
My wife also graduated with a massive jacked up interest student loan, but she majored in a really good healthcare field and the demand for her job is through the roof, so she got lucky in that regard I guess.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Melkr_ said:
Why wouldnt people be interested? Because expectations of Sanders winning?.
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Yes of course. It seems like there is zero interest in the left on what is going down in the Dem primary tonight. On GAF and just about everywhere. GOP turn out is going to beat the Dem similar to Iowa likely.
 
D

dramatis

Member
Melkr_ said:
Why wouldnt people be interested? Because expectations of Sanders winning?.
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It's hard to hype about something you know the outcome of. Right now I'm pretty sure most people agree that the Dem result in Nevada is infinitely more exciting and buttclenching in the imagination than NH or SC.

NeoXChaos said:
why is SC on two different days?
Click to expand...
Republicans and Democrats holding their primaries on different days for some reason
 
F

Fuchsdh

Member
Gruco said:
Going to reply to these in tandem because they're pretty similar sentiments.

Student debt, health care costs, and under employment are all examples that have had dramatic progress in the last 8 years. Dramatic. The expansion of Pell has done remarkable amount of good to people and $5,000 a year should not be considered imperceptible. ACA has dramatically reduced the uninsured rate, helped young people in particular, and slowed the insane rate of growth in health care costs. Over the past 6 years U6 has fallen from 17 to 10%.

People have benefited from federal policy in tangible and substantial ways, across all ages. I can't see how anyone can practically argue with that.

Wanting more is wonderful and something I'm on board with as well, but it brings up the practical question of how to acquire that. Bernie is not well positioned to effect change because he won't have a congressional majority, doesn't have experience with the executive levers of power (they're already being used to near maximum effect regardless), has a legislative strategy perfectly designed to ruin the current legislative de-escalation, and is completely unconcerned about the practical details of policy. Being more ideologically pure does not get better results.
Click to expand...

This is where Bernie's lack of foreign policy experience and simplistic outlook bothers me tremendously. That's the biggest area that an executive can have an impact, and he's just not qualified for that task.
 
T

Teggy

Member
In other news, the Michigan Senate recently passed a sweeping animal protection bill. Which is great, except when you find this paragraph buried within:

Sec. 158. (1) Any A person who shall commit COMMITS the abominable and detestable crime against nature either with mankind or with any animal shall be IS guilty of a felony , punishable by imprisonment in the state prison FOR not more than 15 years...
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So in this giant bill purely about animal cruelty
http://www.legislature.mi.gov/documents/2015-2016/billengrossed/Senate/pdf/2015-SEBS-0219.pdf
there is a reference to "the abominable and detestable crime against nature" with no definition whatsoever, oh and by the way it also applies to mankind. Essentially the Michigan senate just made anal sex a felony in their animal cruelty bill in the most vague way possible.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Cheebo said:
Is anyone here even slightly interested how the Dem side plays out or is it all GOP?
Click to expand...

Bernie probably can't win the nomination in NH no matter what the results, and if Hillary does somehow win NH, then she's the nominee which is basically what everyone expected, only difference being she clinched it a bit earlier than expected.

The main event on the Dem side is South Carolina, where we see if Bernie can find a way to not get blown out, and turn the whole thing into a real contest.

On the republican side, NH is probably the most important of the 4 early states, so I definitely think that is the one to pay attention to.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
Gruco said:
Going to reply to these in tandem because they're pretty similar sentiments.

Student debt, health care costs, and under employment are all examples that have had dramatic progress in the last 8 years. Dramatic. The expansion of Pell has done remarkable amount of good to people and $5,000 a year should not be considered imperceptible. ACA has dramatically reduced the uninsured rate, helped young people in particular, and slowed the insane rate of growth in health care costs. Over the past 6 years U6 has fallen from 17 to 10%.

People have benefited from federal policy in tangible and substantial ways, across all ages. I can't see how anyone can practically argue with that.

Wanting more is wonderful and something I'm on board with as well, but it brings up the practical question of how to acquire that. Bernie is not well positioned to effect change because he won't have a congressional majority, doesn't have experience with the executive levers of power (they're already being used to near maximum effect regardless), has a legislative strategy perfectly designed to ruin the current legislative de-escalation, and is completely unconcerned about the practical details of policy. Being more ideologically pure does not get better results.
Click to expand...

The question was why young people are supporting Sanders, not whether or not they're being practical about it. It's really surprising that by this point you guys seem to not understand that politics is mostly about presentation and emotion because the majority of people don't pay attention to things below the surface.

Try explaining what you posted to someone who is being crushed by student debt while working multiple sub-living wage jobs with little to no security due to unions being more or less destroyed. You are not being empathetic here, you're looking at the situation from a dispassionate point of view rather than trying to understand how people in their 20s actually feel about the situation. Very few people are going to be swayed by policy talk about "well it could have been worse!" when they don't feel like they are on the upswing. It doesn't matter if what he proposes is plausible or not, it matters that people feel like they have a candidate who actually understands them and cares about their needs. I'm not saying this as a positive or a negative, I'm saying that this is why many young people support Bernie Sanders, and Hillary would be wise to try to co-opt that fire that he's started.
 
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