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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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Atlagev

Member
good thing the democrats are building the hero we need to save the senate

giphy.gif

I want to believe. :-(
 
Hoping to vote first thing 7AM in PA tomorrow. I have work, an appointment then a trip to Baltimore tomorrow but worst case scenario I can go after work 5ish.
 

Effect

Member
Looking forward to voting tomorrow. My mom doesn't really show that much excitement about things like this but pretty sure she's looking forward to casting her vote. She doesn't have any dislike for Hillary at all and have never seen a hint of it. She hates Trump as all sane people should. It was hard to judge how excited she was to vote for Obama originally but him being the first black President was a big deal with us being black. My dad, sister, and I were super excited. Then afterward I noticed the plate with Obama and his family in the cabinet and she was the one that bought it. Looking forward to see if something like that shows up.

That being said I'm still super nervous about Pennsylvania tomorrow. I don't want any surprises tomorrow here and knowing what the middle and west part of this state can be like I hope Philly and the surrounding areas over-perform for Hillary. Now that can be taken as having no faith in people but I do have faith that the racist here, those overt and closeted will have loved with Trump has been saying if I'm really being honest about it. With no early vote here there is no way of knowing how things will really lean. Thankfully the strike in Philly is over but again I hope the area over-performs and polling locations are super busy there tomorrow.

I wish there was more of a solid look at how PA should turn out tomorrow.
 

TheFatOne

Member
My dads a trip. Sister asked him who he was voting for, and he said Trump. Gave some bullshit excuses as to why in Spanish, and my sister started going off. Few minutes later I hear my dad howling laughing. Guy has a gift, and knows exactly how to piss my sister off.
 

Kid Heart

Member
I voted for the first time today, after sitting out 2012 due to laziness. I live in Illinois, so it's not like my vote will move the needle or anything for Clinton, but it felt good to at least get out there and become a part of something bigger. +1 to Duckworth too, though I'm sure she's set at this point as well :p
 
Romney won by 20 pts in ND as Heidi squeaked by a point. Tester won by 3 as Romney won by 14.

Not out of the possibility of Kander squeaking.

Mountain west love ticket splitting.

Parties are much different out there and much smaller electorate than MO.
But Mcaskill, Koster, Kander, Nixon all ran ahead of Obama in 2012. By big margins. There's will be lots of trump kander votes. Just not sure if its enough in 2016
 
Breitbart/Gravis MI Clinton +5

GET THE MEMO


Economist/yougov Clinton +4

#Florida:
Clinton 46% (+1)
Trump 45%
Johnson 4%

North Carolina:
Clinton 46% (+1)
Trump 45%
Johnson 3%

@GravisMarketing

#FLsen:
Rubio (R) 47% (+1)
Murphy (D) 46%

#NCsen:
Burr (R) 48% (+1)
Ross (D) 47%

@GravisMarketing Poll

I know these are two separate polls with two separate samples, but I'm just having difficulty reconciling the idea of HRC winning FL and NC by 1 point margins and the D senators in those states losing by exactly as much lol. Fun juxtaposition.
 

zou

Member
so what exactly changed on 538?

Suddenly she's winning FL, NC and NV, yet there's no new polls. Only thing different is all polls are adjusted towards Clinton, whereas before he skewed them towards Trump.
 
My cousin's wife and her daughter were in town from Seattle for Hillary ground game this week in Colorado. Her daughters is 12, takes ballet and fencing, and basically schooled us all in a political discussion.

It was really fun to watch and I'm glad she is excited about politics.
 
so what exactly changed on 538?

Suddenly she's winning FL, NC and NV, yet there's no new polls. Only thing different is all polls are adjusted towards Clinton, whereas before he skewed them towards Trump.

The browbeating took their toll. Silver's formula gave up the ghost
 
Seriously MO dems swept the state level stuff.

I'm holding hope we keep the gov and flip to the senate. I like kander a lot (I like how he's 100% right on energy and investing in renewables, that's my biggest issue now and we need to get blue dog dems on board.)
 

Not

Banned
I voted for the first time today, after sitting out 2012 due to laziness. I live in Illinois, so it's not like my vote will move the needle or anything for Clinton, but it felt good to at least get out there and become a part of something bigger. +1 to Duckworth too, though I'm sure she's set at this point as well :p

Good work :)
 

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
so what exactly changed on 538?

Suddenly she's winning FL, NC and NV, yet there's no new polls. Only thing different is all polls are adjusted towards Clinton, whereas before he skewed them towards Trump.

Doesn't his model run on a number of simulations? So he can end up with a different result if he reruns it even if the underlying numbers don't change.
 

Wallach

Member
I will howl if we somehow drag murphy across the line at the last minute

please let this happen, lord knows rubio deserves the humiliation
 
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