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[NYCmetsfan]

Surprise, motherfucker!

Ew survey monkey (it gets a c- lol)

 

[Wilsongt]

"Well.. Trump can't fire me because of the bad press so fuck it."

That garbage playing is not NSYNC.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Liberal Boston sports fans have gone through so much.

 

[Link]

Ew survey monkey (it gets a c- lol)

I know, but I'll still post it!

 

[Boke1879]

AA drop hurting.

Fucking Woodhouse.

It sucks. Fuck voter suppression, but I have no doubt the Clinton camp is doing all they can to turn out these voters.

 

[Oblivion]

Sabato has the Senate as a tie in his final prediction.

I'll take it. But Dems better not waste any time and appoint the fuck out of both the SC and every single other federal bench vacancy in the country.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

http://abc7chicago.com/politics/ele...-leads-hundreds-to-early-voting-site/1593700/

 

[Grief.exe]

Surprise, motherfucker!

That's a top tier poll too. Getting intense.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I think Kander will win but I admit that comes from a place of hope and want more than anything.

Insiders treating it like it's his race to lose if anything. Seriously he's such a good candidate, ran a pitch perfect campaign above the fray of the usual politics. If he and Ross had traded places NC would be a guaranteed pickup and we wouldn't even be talking about MO.

Would suck if he lost just because Trump drags Blunt's lazy ass across the finish line.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Ronald Brownstein ‏@RonBrownstein 3h3 hours ago
In final (?) ABC/WP track, class Trumps gender: HRC +12 col+ wh women & +1 col+ wh men, but -31 non-col wh men, -35 (!!) non-col wh women

wow

 

[zou]

Doesn't his model run on a number of simulations? So he can end up with a different result if he reruns it even if the underlying numbers don't change.

he's adjusting all poll numbers, so can't use that excuse.

 

[CygnusXS]

Guys, I don't think we're going to get to a new thread by tomorrow.

 

[captscience]

so what exactly changed on 538?

Suddenly she's winning FL, NC and NV, yet there's no new polls. Only thing different is all polls are adjusted towards Clinton, whereas before he skewed them towards Trump.

Some national polls moved the probabilities from 49-51 percent. They're all still coin flips according to his model, whether it's baby blue or pink doesn't really matter.

 

[brianmcdoogle]

so what exactly changed on 538?

Suddenly she's winning FL, NC and NV, yet there's no new polls. Only thing different is all polls are adjusted towards Clinton, whereas before he skewed them towards Trump.

"No herding! No herding! You're the herder!"

 

[Zackat]

Guys, I don't think we're going to get to a new thread by tomorrow.

we just need to shill harder

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/

 

[zou]

Some national polls moved the probabilities from 49-51 percent. They're all still coin flips according to his model, whether it's baby blue or pink doesn't really matter.

so why does he retroactively change his skew for old polls?

 

[EmCeeGramr]

Donald J. Trump✔
@realDonaldTrump

Big news to share in New Hampshire tonight! Polls looking great! See you soon.
7:17 PM - 7 Nov 2016 · Wilkes-Barre/Scranton International Airport (AVP), United States

A) The Scientologist Birdwatcher Society has a poll of bowling alley patrons has him +1 in NH
B) TrumpTV announcement
C) He was just endorsed by ICE
D) He read something absolutely unbelievable, it just came out, nobody knows about this, lock her up
E) This was all a scam losers, see you later *jumps into escape pod and launches to Newt's moon base*

 

[Laevateinn]

Surprise, motherfucker!

Yeah but do we really want to sacrifice Schumer for Murphy?

 

[Sanjuro]

Liberal Boston sports fans have gone through so much.

...he might be talking about Curly Haired Boyfriend though.

 

[Wallach]

wow

let's not act like we haven't known for hundreds of years that the majority of this country's problems are down to ignorant white people

 

[Manmademan]

let's not act like we haven't known for hundreds of years that the majority of this country's problems are down to ignorant white people

losing non college white women by larger margins than non college white men seems...questionable.

 

[CygnusXS]

A) The Scientologist Birdwatcher Society has a poll of bowling alley patrons has him +1 in NH
B) TrumpTV announcement
C) He was just endorsed by ICE
D) He read something absolutely unbelievable, it just came out, nobody knows about this, lock her up
E) This was all a scam losers, see you later *jumps into escape pod and launches to Newt's moon base*

He's going to start his own country, and it's going to be huge.

 

[nature boy]

Drew Linzer:


My final 2016 presidential election forecast: Clinton 323 - Trump 215. Clinton picks up NC, Trump flips IA and OH. https://t.co/iNek4mQaQb

Final 2016 Senate forecast: a 50-50 tie, 66% chance Dems take control. Ds win in CO, PA, WI, NV, IN, and (barely) NH https://t.co/IPzHSz6TZr

 

[BadRNG]

let's not act like we haven't known for hundreds of years that the majority of this country's problems are down to ignorant white people

It's the white women part that is the shocker. How is he doing better with non-col white women then men?

 

[TestOfTide]

wow

I'm sorry but I have a hard time believing that uneducated white women are MORE in favor of Trump than uneducated white men.

What are the odds that a lot of them are married women who don't want their husbands and neighborhoods finding out they will vote for Hillary?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

losing non college white women by larger margins than non college white men seems...questionable.

Its a tracker. One person switching their vote swings things wildly. Remember the one black dude in the LA times?

 

[RastaMentality]

can't believe we have a huge chance of getting a tied senate. wow.

 

[Oblivion]

Please tell me you guys are joking about the Schumer being in trouble thing. My day was going so well. :/

 

[Carpe Carnim]

let's not act like we haven't known for hundreds of years that the majority of this country's problems are down to ignorant white people

Watching news media dance around the fact that a large portion of White America spent the past year cheering their mayonnaise-filled hearts out for a fascist clown, will be both hilarious and infuriating.

Fug'em

 

[Kangi]

Please tell me you guys are joking about the Schumer being in trouble thing. My day was going so well. :/

Schumer's winning by 40 points, man...

(The joke is that Schumer is also wasting ad money on his race.)

 

[NYCmetsfan]

can't believe we have a huge chance of getting a tied senate. wow.

happened in 2000 and only because a dead dude won in MO. Dems won the senate with a dead dude, lol

Please tell me you guys are joking about the Schumer being in trouble thing. My day was going so well. :/

Lol no

 

[Hasphat'sAnts]

Wow the 1600 guys are HEATED

 

[metalslimer]

Please tell me you guys are joking about the Schumer being in trouble thing. My day was going so well. :/

lol come on man he has like a 50 point lead.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Wolf Blitzer just came all over his kitchen.

538 Senate projection.

Dem control probability: 50.1%
Rep control probability: 49.9%

 

[Manmademan]

Its a tracker. One person switching their vote swings things wildly. Remember the one black dude in the LA times?

oh good lord why do we even post those

 

[Hasphat'sAnts]

Wolf Blitzer just came all over his kitchen.

538 Senate projection.

Dem control probability: 50.1%
Rep control probability: 49.9%

"Obviously uh, a very tight race there" -- Wolf in the Situation Room.

 

[maquiladora]

The U.S. government is gearing up for an unprecedented effort to protect Tuesday's presidential election from cyber attack, U.S. officials told NBC News.

The concern is so high, intelligence officials told NBC, that for the first time, hundreds of military and intelligence cyber experts who work out of top secret facilities, including underground bunkers, will be monitoring intelligence about a U.S. presidential election.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/20...k-protect-election-hack-say-officials-n679271

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Drew Linzer:


My final 2016 presidential election forecast: Clinton 323 - Trump 215. Clinton picks up NC, Trump flips IA and OH. https://t.co/iNek4mQaQb

Final 2016 Senate forecast: a 50-50 tie, 66% chance Dems take control. Ds win in CO, PA, WI, NV, IN, and (barely) NH https://t.co/IPzHSz6TZr

If the Dems hold NV and win IL (99% per Linzer), PA, WI thats 49. IN and NH is 51, not 50, right?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

My god, CNN's analysis of the early vote is fucking amateur hour.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Drew Linzer:


My final 2016 presidential election forecast: Clinton 323 - Trump 215. Clinton picks up NC, Trump flips IA and OH. https://t.co/iNek4mQaQb

Final 2016 Senate forecast: a 50-50 tie, 66% chance Dems take control. Ds win in CO, PA, WI, NV, IN, and (barely) NH https://t.co/IPzHSz6TZr

That would be 51 seats unless he meant IL instead of IN.

 

[Wallach]

"Obviously uh, a very tight race there" -- Wolf in the Situation Room.

razor tight, even

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Wow the 1600 guys are HEATED

Over what?

 

[TestOfTide]

Its a tracker. One person switching their vote swings things wildly. Remember the one black dude in the LA times?

OK that makes more sense.

Still, what are the odds that a big chunk of married white women are secret Hillary voters? Seems like with how deplorable Trump fans are that it would be a thing.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

oh good lord why do we even post those

We've been eating shit sammiches for a year, we might as well jump in the pig shit lagoon this close to the finish line.

 

[sc0la]

Please tell me you guys are joking about the Schumer being in trouble thing. My day was going so well. :/

Iwata-san, Please understand

 

[johnsmith]

Plouffe says he still thinks Clinton will win OH.

 

[Angry Grimace]

so what exactly changed on 538?

Suddenly she's winning FL, NC and NV, yet there's no new polls. Only thing different is all polls are adjusted towards Clinton, whereas before he skewed them towards Trump.

Nate's model cares about National polling and tries to extrapolate odds based on what he believes are statistical trends.

 

[nature boy]

If the Dems hold NV and win IL (99% per Linzer), PA, WI thats 49. IN and NH is 51, not 50, right?

Yeah he quickly deleted the tweet and said:

@xenocryptsite @politicobsessed Wasn't clearly worded, and just heard we're getting more data tonight. Deleted the tweet, will update later.


Kinda excited to see if he continues to be the most accurate forecaster.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

That would be 51 seats unless he meant IL instead of IN.

I checked and Linzer still has Bayh at 61% to win and Duckworth at 99%. He's not even tracking IL lol. I guess the chance that Bayh or Cortez Masto loses plus NH a toss up means 50 seats to Drew?

http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016/office/senate/state/NV

 

[TheCrow]

My god, CNN's analysis of the early vote is fucking amateur hour.

I just suffered through that too. Love how they ignore the NPA numbers completely or the voter suppression in NC. I should've listened to everyone saying to turn CNN off.