PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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Holmes said:
Not that I was even talking about him, but the people who are all in an uproar now over Arizona and are blaming the wrong people (Clinton, the DNC instead of the Supreme Court for gutting the Voting Rights Act and Arizona Republicans for limiting the number of polling stations) were pretty silent when voter suppression laws were doing the same in Southern States. Well, Michael Moore spoke up...and disenfranchised the voices of millions of African-Americans that were able to vote in the primaries in the South.
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Yeah but your comment was about the bombings being less important than voter suppression. So if we accept that young people care more about overseas bombing, you make a further claim that they don't care about voter suppression, and are therefore hypocritical?
 
Iolo said:
You're right in that she did do relatively okay in Nebraska. Although I don't think there is enough data to prove absentee ballots are helping. The weird part is that only ID and UT (and VT) were blowouts. I don't know what's different about ID and UT, except that the dem survivors there must be hardened liberals.
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They're Washington/Oregon salt-of-the-earth white liberals.

I know because I lived in Idaho and still have my tendencies.
 
East Lake said:
Yeah but your comment was about the bombings being less important than voter suppression. So if we accept that young people care more about overseas bombing, you make a further claim that they don't care about voter suppression, and are therefore hypocritical?
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When you come from a place of privilege, it's really easy to only care about things that affect you. And I'm not including just young people. It's true for everyone, it's just that young people on the Internet are the most vocal demographic ever. So when all the white so-called Sanders supporters in Arizona had to wait in line for hours to vote or were turned away because they registered as Democrats passed the deadline, all of a sudden they care about voter suppression, the same type of suppression that has plagued minority communities for years in red states. They were pretty silent when it happened I'm states Clinton won.

And in case you didn't catch my sarcasm, no, I don't think Millenials in general care about drone strikes in the Middle East and northern Africa.
 
Las7 said:
Is her no fly zone plan a mistake and why hasn't she admitted that?
Is her actively lobbying for regime change in Libya a mistake and has she admitted that?
Is supporting Saudi's war in Yemen and drone strikes there by the US a mistake and has she admitted that?
Is spreading Israeli anti-Iran propaganda a mistake and has she admitted that?
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See, THAT is a much better and more substantial answer than responding with a quote from another opinion piece and highlighting a sentence from it.

I've already stated that I think reducing what happened in Libya as "lobbying for regime change" removes a lot important context. Apparently, a lot of people believed that Gadaffi was about to slaughter a whole lot of people. Obama included.

As for everything else you mentioned, I don't hold those views as solely Clinton's as she isn't the only politician to express them (or even the only Democrat), nor do I think any of those examples are any indication that Hillary's looking to get the US involved in another ground war or drawn-out conflict. Especially when she's saying she's not. I guess I'm looking for quotes or direct inferences on her part, because I'm not aware of any, so I'm confused as to why Hillary is consistently referred to as a hawk more than most people.

I guess I reserve a term like "hawk" for the right, where we are seeing open and blatant calls for full-on war.
 
Holmes said:
When you come from a place of privilege, it's really easy to only care about things that affect you. And I'm not including just young people. It's true for everyone, it's just that young people on the Internet are the most vocal demographic ever. So when all the white so-called Sanders supporters in Arizona had to wait in line for hours to vote or were turned away because they registered as Democrats passed the deadline, all of a sudden they care about voter suppression, the same type of suppression that has plagued minority communities for years in red states. They were pretty silent when it happened I'm states Clinton won.

And in case you didn't catch my sarcasm, no, I don't think Millenials in general care about drone strikes in the Middle East and northern Africa.
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Maybe Google a few polls, millenials oppose drone strikes.

As for voter suppression, that's just not true. You can't make sweeping generalizations like that without significant evidence
 
Macho Madness said:
Benchmark Politics predictions for today:

Washington

Sanders 56
Clinton 44

Hawaii

Sanders 55
Clinton 45

Alaska

Sanders 70
Clinton 30

You're also going to hear a lot about momentum today. There is no real proof that says momentum is a thing that matters: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/20/the-misunderstanding-of-momentum

Also it's my birthday (30th oh god) so I probably won't be around a whole lot today.
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So basically Sanders is doing well in the whitest of the white states, excluding Hawaii.
 
Holmes said:
When you come from a place of privilege, it's really easy to only care about things that affect you. And I'm not including just young people. It's true for everyone, it's just that young people on the Internet are the most vocal demographic ever. So when all the white so-called Sanders supporters in Arizona had to wait in line for hours to vote or were turned away because they registered as Democrats passed the deadline, all of a sudden they care about voter suppression, the same type of suppression that has plagued minority communities for years in red states. They were pretty silent when it happened I'm states Clinton won.

And in case you didn't catch my sarcasm, no, I don't think Millenials in general care about drone strikes in the Middle East and northern Africa.
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You're sort of all over the place now because you think you had some witty observation. There's no way to know whether these two groups of people even overlap.
 
Wilsongt said:
So basically Sanders is doing well in the whitest of the white states, excluding Hawaii.
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Bernie does great with:

Young voters
White voters
Caucus voters
Independent voters
Very liberal voters

When you have a state that's mostly white, very liberal, and holding a caucus, look out
 
Macho Madness said:
Benchmark Politics predictions for today:

Washington

Sanders 56
Clinton 44

Hawaii

Sanders 55
Clinton 45

Alaska

Sanders 70
Clinton 30

You're also going to hear a lot about momentum today. There is no real proof that says momentum is a thing that matters: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/20/the-misunderstanding-of-momentum

Also it's my birthday (30th oh god) so I probably won't be around a whole lot today.
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The 538 Demographic based target for Hillary is 61/142 delegates, those numbers would put it higher than that. I also think there is good chance she wins Hawaii, but it's worth like 2 delegates. If he can't get a blowout in Washington, his campaign is double over, it would be out of his hands at that point and criminal to continue fundraising since it requires something to happen beyond his control to win.
 
Tesseract said:
Maybe Google a few polls, millenials oppose drone strikes.

As for voter suppression, that's just not true. You can't make sweeping generalizations like that without significant evidence
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Opposing drone strikes can be mostly opposing it just based on principle not as a thing you do particularly care deeply about. Meaning no rallying against a candidate that supports it, but maybe just saying you don't support and that's it. If Bernie just says he supports drone strikes and give no context will people just drop support? Very very few would. Drone strikes are not a priority to people and you can't give evidence that it is a major position to most people for them to vote against some that supports it.
 
Macho Madness said:
Benchmark Politics predictions for today:

Washington

Sanders 56
Clinton 44

Hawaii

Sanders 55
Clinton 45

Alaska

Sanders 70
Clinton 30

You're also going to hear a lot about momentum today. There is no real proof that says momentum is a thing that matters: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/20/the-misunderstanding-of-momentum

Also it's my birthday (30th oh god) so I probably won't be around a whole lot today.
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That would be a less than desirable result for Bernie in Washington.

Think Hawaii could go Hillary (perhaps even easily) but I won't hold my breath.

Also it happened - Obama hit 53 on Gallup today. My boiiiiii.
 
Aaron Strife said:
That would be a less than desirable result for Bernie in Washington.

Think Hawaii could go Hillary (perhaps even easily) but I won't hold my breath.

Also it happened - Obama hit 53 on Gallup today. My boiiiiii.
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He seems to really be benefiting from the GOP Dumpster Fire™
Which is even more bad news for the GOP, since that was not a guarantee.
 
Suikoguy said:
He seems to really be benefiting from the GOP Dumpster Fire™
Which is even more bad news for the GOP, since that was not a guarantee.
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It wasn't. It was supposed to be Jeb Bush easy street because he followed W's plan and outraised everyone else by a mile early on, and the RNC changed the rules after 2012 so that a front runner could run away with the nomination once it was clear. If anything, the party likely saw it as being a Rubio/Bush fight with Cruz being the Santorum of this cycle. They would have been happy with either Rubio or Bush.

Ironically enough, Trump may have not gotten in the race at all if Jeb wasn't running. Trump didn't think Jeb could win a general election and that he was weak on illegal immigration.
 
Dangansona said:
By the way, it shocks me how pro-Hillary GAF is. I'm not saying how dare you support her or anything like that, but it's just not what I expected from what I presume the demographics of NeoGAF are.
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fwiw, this specific thread may be pro-hillary

but neogaf is only pro-hillary relative to the social media echo chambers where it's regularly 85-15 or worse for sanders. i think the split's something like 65-35 here
 
Officerrob said:
Bernie does great with:

Young voters
White voters
Caucus voters
Independent voters
Very liberal voters

When you have a state that's mostly white, very liberal, and holding a caucus, look out
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Yeah and plenty of racial and religious minorities identify as independent or liberal. So this white narrative is kind of erasing.

Iolo said:
California. See Nevada Latino exit polls.
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How about Illinois exit polls though? ;)
 
Suikoguy said:
He seems to really be benefiting from the GOP Dumpster Fire™
Which is even more bad news for the GOP, since that was not a guarantee.
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I really hope he gets to leave office with like 60% approval.

He came in with a little under 70 and I think post-presidency that's about where he'll land. Democrats/left-leaning Independents will love him, the more middle of the road Indies will think he was decent, and even a few conservatives will begrudgingly admit he wasn't so bad. Solid top 10 candidate, the only people who will still have it out for him are hardcore partisans and genuine racists.

Now let's just hope his successor won't actively work to undermine everything he ever stood for. Luckily that doesn't seem too likely, but you never know.
 
So it looks like Hillary's best hope is to keep Sanders' margins down in Seattle because he's going to take the rest of the state. Benchmark is finding Seattle to be a lot closer than people expected so far.

One precinct in a heavy Asian area tied, and a heavily white precinct went 59-41 Sanders.
 
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