Just posting the most unfavorable results possible, no biggie
If you're going to do this at such a low level, follow benchmark politics to see whether the results are worse or better than expected.
Also it's non-viable and unenviable.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Just posting the most unfavorable results possible, no biggie
If you're going to do this at such a low level, follow benchmark politics to see whether the results are worse or better than expected.
Also it's non-viable and unenviable.
cartoon_soldier
Member
34-1428 initial count: 23 Sanders, 15 Clinton, 2 undecided
Wonder when they start posting official results and when they find absentee ones.
Wonder when they start posting official results and when they find absentee ones.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
let him enjoy the one day Bernie can do well. we all know it's over and the Khalessi has this in the bag.Just posting the most unfavorable results possible, no biggie
If you're going to do this at such a low level, follow benchmark politics to see whether the results are worse or better than expected.
Also it's non-viable and unenviable.
Macho Madness
Member
Benchmark:
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
The sad part is, he really does need a blowout in Washington to catch up to where he needs to be, just winning 60% is not enough.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Yes it's over and the earlier Bernie gets out the better for us.
Nothing. He still needs huge wins in NY and Cali. The course of the race stays the same unless he can change the dynamic in both of those states.
Nothing. It doesn't change the fundamental maths which requires him to win by massive margins in states where that's never happening (New York, Pennsylvania, California).
It literally doesn't change anything.
Officerrob
Banned
Absolutely nothing
He gets an influx of money to run more ads until getting destroyed on the East Coast, I assume.
excelsiorlef
Member
He's still down by 150-200 and likely loses most of that in NY.
Retromelon
Member
None of you should miss the lindsey graham episode of the daily show. Never knew he was that funny, or good at pool.
Truly wouldnt mind if he was president, but no one i like ever wins
Truly wouldnt mind if he was president, but no one i like ever wins
And_Gignac
Member
Probably a result of people taking into account Clinton leads? Bernie may start losing (or not hugely winning like he needs to) his demo-friendly states because the perception is already there that Hillary has this in the bag.
I am fairly certain that even with blowout wins everywhere, he will still be down by around 220.
Officerrob
Banned
Yeah, I thinks blowouts still keeps things in the +225 range
excelsiorlef
Member
Yeah
I was being generous.
And_Gignac
Member
But he is winning NY tho? By 20%. Birdie Chavez changed everything.
If only he wasn't an insane warmonger I'd agree. Dude's way too eager to blow up the middle east.
Sure he is! Of course that little bird changed everything, you should have seen how the state came together and all decided he was our guy after that. It was magical.
User 463088
Banned
He didn't get 80/20 wins in States she didn't contest. Hawaii will be the closest, one way or the other, though. Even assuming that split, her lead would still be greater than 200 Delegates.
Do you think the majority of Clinton supporters feel the same way? I find your absolute certainty about how things will go in New York comforting. It gives me real hope for what follows this weekend.
Atomic Playboy
Member
There's no evidence to support that whatsoever. He is losing every single poll that's been done in New York by double digits.
Oh, actually you may be right. That bird changed everything.
She has some major advantages in New York.
excelsiorlef
Member
NY is her defacto home state. She's an admired former Senator.
New York elected Hillary to the US senate twice. She's incredibly popular in the state among voters and has the support of just about every political figure as well. The demographics play to her strengths and the City and it's suburbs, which are incredibly diverse, make up 60% of the state's population. Pretending all that stuff doesn't exist is just silliness, it's why Bernie's camped out in California and not New York.
EDIT: The state went for Hillary over Obama. If Obama couldn't take it from her Bernie's got no chance.
He'll get the young vote. She will get everything else.
And_Gignac
Member
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersFor...washington_caucus_support_mega_thread/d1ed1xn
I see you, Hilly-GAF.
I see you, Hilly-GAF.
I'm not even sure he'll win that to the degree he's won it so far.
let's be fair, dank is an apt description for typical Seattle weather
eBay Huckster
Member
Same one as last time.
k thanks.
User 463088
Banned
I think we'll see 65/35 or there about.
That's about what I expect. If it's somehow under a 20-point gap then that's that.
And_Gignac
Member
I felt a bit of second hand embarrassment tbh. The audience freaking out about a little bird. Magical thinking is alive and well even with Sanders' supporters, who are well known atheistic communists.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Expecting a Sanders blowout in every state today.
If Sanders isn't killing it in Seattle, I think that he runs into trouble running the margins up. Half of all Washington residents live in the Seattle metro area, and most of the rest of Washington is much more Republican by virtue of being rural and racist.
Wafflecakes
Member
Do we expect absentee ballots to make a difference? I remember reading in this thread previously that there was a major push on that front.
Jean Matthews first voted in a presidential election for FDR. Now shes 96 years-old and backing Bernie Sanders at the Democratic caucus in Vancouver, Washington. She doesnt expect him to win the nomination and says she will not vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election.
Im voting for Bernie Sanders because hes the only person in this election you can trust, Matthews said. Hillary lies all the time. She lies about any stuff that can met her look good. She stands for thee status quo, she said at the Hudson Bay high school.
Then Matthews said something you dont often hear from nonagenarians: Im for a revolution. Matthews said that she is likely to vote for the Green Party candidate in the general election if Clinton gets the Democratic nomination even if that helps Donald Trump.
My son says I vote my principles. I dont care. Principles not personality. Hillary is a totally unprincipled person. Ill just be sick if she gets it. Im sitting her with a bunch of Hillary people. I dont want to be around them.
That's one entitled granny
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...p-cruz-washington-alaska-hawaii-election-2016
And_Gignac
Member
What a Queen. If only her generation wasn't so blind.
So looking at the delegates available and predicted margins of victory:
Say Sanders wins Washington 65-35, and since Hawaii and Alaska are both pretty tiny, lets say he gets 100% in Alaska and Hawaii is a draw, since those combined results will probably be roughly near what actually happens. Then he gains roughly 60 delegates on Hillary, so her lead is about 240 after today. I don't really see the outcome being any better than that for him.
Say Sanders wins Washington 65-35, and since Hawaii and Alaska are both pretty tiny, lets say he gets 100% in Alaska and Hawaii is a draw, since those combined results will probably be roughly near what actually happens. Then he gains roughly 60 delegates on Hillary, so her lead is about 240 after today. I don't really see the outcome being any better than that for him.
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