Oh please no.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Oh please no.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Hawaii results came in. At 88% reporting:
Bernie: 70.6%
Hillary: 29.2%
Bernie: 70.6%
Hillary: 29.2%
Don't be so sure. I'm expecting it to get even worse the next two cycles before it gets better.
Howard is uniquely qualified to foil Trump's reelection.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I can't enjoy the Cruz sex scandal because I'm worried about his wife
cartoon_soldier
Member
2008 and 2016 shows Hillary is really poor in caucuses unless she has spent a lot of time in the specific state on the ground.
shinra-bansho
Member
Seems like it.
Clinton has only won two state caucuses, both early state caucuses (NV and IA) the latter barely.
(And some territorial caucuses.)
After today, that's basically all the caucuses. There's Wyoming and then territorial caucuses, of which Puerto Rico is the biggest remaining prize.
Clinton has only won two state caucuses, both early state caucuses (NV and IA) the latter barely.
(And some territorial caucuses.)
After today, that's basically all the caucuses. There's Wyoming and then territorial caucuses, of which Puerto Rico is the biggest remaining prize.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Clinton should win PR big a big margin, hoping 30-40 points. I am surprised how little they fought in Washington though, but she had to fund-raise I guess due to weak online setup. They need to concentrate more on that too.
Stern/Kanye vs Trump would be incredible, but who is Trump's Kanye?
Never assume peak fuckery. Thats gets you fucked.
Rae Sremmurd
Hillary, no concession speech - doesn't want to give Bernie any credit
Totally giving up the caucuses - Bernie nearly won Hawaii by the same margin as Obama
I don't see it
I don't see it
shinra-bansho
Member
Doesn't really matter whether she gives Sanders credit. She should be doing something to thank the people that were working for her in those states to get the caucus-goers she did get out to vote, even though she got routed.
Also there's like one state caucus left, so I'm not sure what the snarky second comment is meant to be about.
Also there's like one state caucus left, so I'm not sure what the snarky second comment is meant to be about.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Damn good show from team Bern tonight.
I mean, it didn't really change much overall, but still damn good show. He really needed these states to be early on, if only for a narrative difference. Hill sweeps the south at the same time as Bernie sweeps a bunch of caucuses would have changed the narrative drastically.
The end result would have likely been the same, but he really needed a very different narrative for his arguments about superdelegates and GE polling to have any weight at all.
I mean, it didn't really change much overall, but still damn good show. He really needed these states to be early on, if only for a narrative difference. Hill sweeps the south at the same time as Bernie sweeps a bunch of caucuses would have changed the narrative drastically.
The end result would have likely been the same, but he really needed a very different narrative for his arguments about superdelegates and GE polling to have any weight at all.
The whole comment is snarky - I'm still drinking my coffee
I'm just parroting the things said by people in this very thread
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Hills will shut me up good, as soon as she wraps up this nomination
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Granted... I don't think that's a bad thing.
Just like being King Queen isn't for adam.
Just like being King Queen isn't for adam.
shinra-bansho
Member
Yes, I recognised the entire post was snark.
And that the first part was parroting comments about his lack of concession speeches since forever. Although, she shouldn't be defended for this either.
I'm not sure what the second is supposed to be equating caucuses to. The only thing that comes to mind is equating them to... black voters? In which case, I'm kind of still scratching my head... because... really?
And that the first part was parroting comments about his lack of concession speeches since forever. Although, she shouldn't be defended for this either.
I'm not sure what the second is supposed to be equating caucuses to. The only thing that comes to mind is equating them to... black voters? In which case, I'm kind of still scratching my head... because... really?
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Honestly, I just like using King Queen in a sentence.
For some reason it just feels silky smooth on the tongue.
For some reason it just feels silky smooth on the tongue.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Did I type that out-loud?!
Right because Bernie insulted all black people across the US by failing to campaign in GA, LA, MS, AL and TX - Hillary must be insulting all caucus goers and future caucus goers by failing to campaign in the West. Isn't that the logic behind some posters on this forum or am I missing something.
I've always felt he had such a difficult path to claim and he made absolutely no inroads with older minority voters in the SC, trying his hardest. It's the age rather than the race that is a determining factor if someone is voting Bernie or Hills. And older Black voters seem to be overwhelmingly pro-Hillary while younger ones can go either way.
In terms of posts, hopefully we will see an end to those.
vicissitudes
Banned
It's not even about race, as Hawaii and to a lesser extent, Washington has shown.
My pet theory is, lots of people in primaries who don't pay much attention to politics vote for Hillary based on name recognition. But when people actually get together and have discussions like in caucuses, they realize that Bernie is actually the better choice.
It's why we really do need to keep our caucus system in place in order to preserve a vibrant, thoughtful democracy. We should really consider having caucuses in bigger states like California as well.
My pet theory is, lots of people in primaries who don't pay much attention to politics vote for Hillary based on name recognition. But when people actually get together and have discussions like in caucuses, they realize that Bernie is actually the better choice.
It's why we really do need to keep our caucus system in place in order to preserve a vibrant, thoughtful democracy. We should really consider having caucuses in bigger states like California as well.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm just somewhat taken aback by trying to equate an actual demographic group, minority identification and key Democratic constituency with "caucus goers" to begin with really. :s
But setting that - to me - really bizarre comparison aside, she has been devoting resources to trying to at least blunt the loss, ineffectually, in Washington. I don't think either actually campaigned in Alaska or Hawaii. She did ignore Utah and Idaho in favor of campaigning in Phoenix.
I'm not sure about posts that claim that he somehow insulted all black voters, as opposed to that he didn't endear himself to those states at all by ignoring them. Posts about his lack of traction with black voters and to some extent Latinos have, as far as I can tell, been generally about the way he's failed to message. I suppose ignoring the south fits into that to an extent.
But setting that - to me - really bizarre comparison aside, she has been devoting resources to trying to at least blunt the loss, ineffectually, in Washington. I don't think either actually campaigned in Alaska or Hawaii. She did ignore Utah and Idaho in favor of campaigning in Phoenix.
I'm not sure about posts that claim that he somehow insulted all black voters, as opposed to that he didn't endear himself to those states at all by ignoring them. Posts about his lack of traction with black voters and to some extent Latinos have, as far as I can tell, been generally about the way he's failed to message. I suppose ignoring the south fits into that to an extent.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
In my experience with the caucus system, those that come in, already have their minds made up.
I was the closest thing to a swing vote in my precinct of 530. I came in feeling the Bern, and decided to stick with the Queen because she was circling dangerously close to the viability threshold.
Generally caucuses bring out the hardest core of the hardcore. Those that are immovable.
edit: Primaries because there's no waiting around in a room full of people you don't know, tend to bring out a largest slice of the voting pop. By virtue of that, they are the better, cleaner system.
I'm pretty sure people are doing it just to rile up Sanders supporters and get a particular reaction from them and laugh about it. I doubt it has much to do with Sanders himself - much like most of my snark has little to do with Hills. Hills seems like a much much much much better option than any circus performer and unless voter turnout is low I can't see how she or Sanders lose to a circus act.
Errol Louis on CNN - "There are "minorities" and minorities"
lol this election
While I agree primaries are better, having a smaller slice of the voting population doesn't explain why Caucuses are going to Bernie.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
They tend to be more engaged and psyched for a particular candidate.
Feeling the Bern is a more powerful thing than "Ready for Hillary."
I just think she tends to receive the less dedicated voter. Those that don't live and breathe her... fluid... policy positions. Bernies tend to be believers in the man, if not the message.
Also aren't most caucuses - contests where you can't vote early. Hillary has a huge advantage with most early voters in primaries. Wasn't the Arizona in person voters 60/40 Bernie so for him to lose by such a margin there - early voters must have been like 90/10 or 80/20 for Hills.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Bernie's campaign manager has basically laid out a strategy that goes through majority white states. While Michigan was a big upset for them, the trend didn't play out in Ohio. I also really hated Bernie's Illinois campaign basically around tying Hillary to Rahm, but in the end that didn't work out for them either.
Hillary has won more white states than Bernie has won mixed racial states, so I don't know why nobody is talking about what will happen in November if minorities don't turn out at Obama levels for Democrats. Dem path to White House is through minorities not white voters.
The reason caucuses are bad is because they require a lot more time commitment from voters than just showing up and voting. Plan and simple, you can't just have the most dedicated people involved in a democracy.
Hillary has won more white states than Bernie has won mixed racial states, so I don't know why nobody is talking about what will happen in November if minorities don't turn out at Obama levels for Democrats. Dem path to White House is through minorities not white voters.
The reason caucuses are bad is because they require a lot more time commitment from voters than just showing up and voting. Plan and simple, you can't just have the most dedicated people involved in a democracy.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
There were definitely posts here that suggested Bernie was alienating the AA vote by not even bothering to campaign in some states.
Because Hillary supporters aren't opposed to Sanders. Sanders entire campaign has been "NOT HILLARY" and the result is militization of his supporters against Clinton. Therefore they are far less willing to concede and flip their vote in a caucus than Clinton supporters.
Clinton's supporters are established Dems. Their primary goal is getting a candidate who beats Trump/Cruz/whoever and preventing SCOTUS regression, repeal of ACA, legislation to curtail LGBT rights, continued minority disenfranchisement, etc.. Both candidates check that box.
Sanders' base are generally new to the system and actually believe Sanders is capable of doing all of the shit he's claimed he would.
Sanders has the same trend Trump does as well- he does better in open primaries/caucuses than closed ones.
It's doubling down on already bad optics.
Party of family values.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
It's looking more and more like neither candidate will get the nomination without the help of superdelegates, and I think that's gonna be messy.
I.e. The same that happened in 2008 with Obama. It isn't messy at all, it's how the system is suppossed to work. Clinton has had several *million* more votes than Sanders already - anyone complaining its undemocratic that Superdelegates vote for her is willingly blinding themself to how this race has actually unfolded.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I don't disagree with you, but given how Bernie fans have reacted to coin tosses, voter disenfranchisement, blah blah blah so far I don't think this will go over as (relatively) smoothly as 2008 did.
Officerrob
Banned
It wasn't eight years ago, it's only messy if Bernie allows it to be
I thought Hillary has a clear enough lead that would make help from superdelegates unnecessary?
Oh, on that I definitely agree with you. I've been posting for ages about how I don't think Bernie is going to make any serious effort to fix the divide between the wings of the party, which will create real problems in November. Hopefully I'm just being a worry wort, but I cannot get away from the fact he has no loyalty or identity with the party and no motive to play nice, unlike Clinton in 2008.
It's funny, but how she acted after she lost the nomination was the first stage for me in accepting that she would have been a good candidate had she won. I know a lot of other Obama supporters who said the same - her (eventual) concession speech, and the convention speech and the suspension of the roll-call went a long way to rehabilitate her.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
If they split the remaining delegates 50/50, Hillary will come up about 240 short before supers are factored in.
shinra-bansho
Member
It will be interesting to see if Sanders releases his delegates or not.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Eventually, even Bernie will get thrown under the bus.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Isn't Clinton still polling way ahead in the big states?
Not saying that a split couldn't happen, but you make it sound like the most likely outcome.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Bernie fans love caucuses now. I guarantee it.
It's very hard to win Dem primary without supers.
Sanders has some friendly states too. Really a lot of it comes down to Clinton performance in: Maryland, NY, PA, PR.
Puerto Rico is very important for Clinton. A landslide in PR and Maryland counters Sanders wins easily.
NY is the biggest one, just a 55-45 split for Clinton means she gets 25 odd more delegates.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
That just seems like a basis to work on that doesn't delve too deep into conjecture. But even if Hillary wins every remaining contest 55/45, she'll be about 160 short without supers.
Cartoon_soldier said:
I'm not so sure. One of my more avid Bernie friends on fb just posted some stuff about voter suppression in Hawaii. I had to resist the urge to remind her that Bernie just won the state by 40 points.
If you want to get an idea of the type of attacks Bernie would face in a general - Bernie Sanders Debates Richard Tarrant (R), 2006 Senate Race
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