Cybit, you think black voters will go to a GOP moderate after their party has shitted on them with dog whistle codewords for "nigger" for decades? You serious now?
If Nixon could invoke the Southern strategy and shift the entire demographics - I can't go around and say "Oh, black voters are officially locked into the Democrats for life". 20, 30 years is a long time. The realignment of the GOP that is going on is actually pretty much on cue - you get one every 40-50 years. I can't say that some kind of crazy realignment isn't set to happen again on the Dem side either, and maybe reasonably soon.
Oh so you're a joke poster! Why didn't you say so! Republicans have run plenty of moderate republicans for the presidency. H.W. Bush in 88, Dole in 96, G.W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. All of them lost the black vote by ridiculous 92-8 margins to democrats. The view that the republican party is anti-black is SO ingrained into black voters that your actual blackness will come into question by voting republican. This is not a joke, this is a thing that happens. Black Voters are GONE.
The republican party actually USED to do quite well with latinos. GWB had about 40% of the hispanic vote and was notable for his outreach there. This was BEFORE the population explosion and susequent horrific racist language in response by the GOP. By 2012 Romney who by any measure is a moderate and not a racist only had 27%. It's going to be a lot lower this year and will keep on plummeting as republicans can't seem to stop doubling down on stupidity re: latinos.
Once you have been branded as catering to racists, it is not easy to turn that around. You may as well suggest republicans are going to win back the gay vote after trying everything they could to ban gay marriage nationwide.
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Black voters are religious, but not socially conservative. Don't confuse the two. There is most certainly an anti-gay bias in that community that goes back to biblical reasons, but the comparison stops there.
oh please.
Some of us have been paying attention for more than five minutes, so we know these things. you may be interested to know that:
1.) The GOP's current hold on the house and senate goes back to the backlash of the 2010 elections, which won't be happening again. All current estimates have the GOP losing the senate this year and it will take a miracle for them to hold onto it.
2.) The supreme court would be democratic right now if not for mcconnell obstructing a nomination. No republican has been nominated to the bench in over ten years.
3.) the next census- which will determine how congressional districts are drawn- will take place in 2020 which is a presidential year, where democrats overperform. This will reverse a lot of the redistricting damage done in 2010, which was an off year where republicans overperformed.
You may want to study a bit more before you roll in and attempt to drop knowledge, son.
OK, so let's take this point by point.
1) Black voters are gone...for now. I'm looking long-term - and parties generally undergo realignments every 50 years or so. The GOP is in the middle of their realignment it seems (Thanks Trump!), but the Dems are also probably set for a realignment themselves. Now - the realignment could very easily be shifting even further away from going after white voters and aiming for minority voters and hoping that current demographic trends hold (and that the US hits majority minority status in 2050 as currently predicted). That very well could be the Dem re-alignment. But in people's lifetimes, look at the african-american vote pre and post Nixon Southern Strategy. It's not inconceivable that a similar shift could go the other way in our lifetimes as well. That's why I put the comment about if this new GOP stuck to just abortion and gay/trans rights - since those are tied to the religious aspects more so than the other issues. Now, if you are correct and the GOP feels they have to keep dog-whistling bullshit racism in order to keep white conservative voters in line? Yeah, then you can more or less kiss the black vote goodbye. (but, unfortunately, as GWB proved, you don't need the Af-Am vote to win a GE in this country).
Aside: Fun link regarding percentages of voters:
http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/presidential-elections/2012-presidential-election/ - you can see earlier elections as well. Kind of cool to see how trends develop/
(Also, the point about being black and voting republican and having your blackness called into question is hilariously true)
2) Latinos did used to go for the GOP in pretty recent history. Now, if the GOP continues to hilariously self-destruct w/r/t Trump - then yes, things are not going to get better soon. But, lets say that a) Trump doesn't get the nomination due to convention shenanigans, or b) the conservatives run a 3rd party candidate (Romney / etc) to say "hey, Trump doesn't represent us" - both of which are not surprising potential outcomes - a Post-Trump GOP will have a fair amount of cover to eventually start working their ways back to getting a decent proportion of the Latino vote.
Jeb has shown decently good (past) numbers with Latino, and seeing as how fast the GOP managed to lose Latinos, it is just as possible to regain their status should they stop shooting themselves in the foot - which a crushing loss in 2016 might do. Look at what McGovern did for the entire Democratic party to this day. A similar kind of ideological crushing in 2016 could revamp the conservative movement similarly (especially if said loss leads to SCOTUS being set as liberal for the forseeable future).
3) I think gay voters are mostly gone to the Dems; barring an epic failure on the Dems part or a massive shift on the GOP side towards gay rights - none of which I can easily see coming done.
4) The idea of the GOP permanent majority was that you'd make the GOP the "Christian" party functionally. Now, what did them in is that as much as GWB promised social conservatism based off of Christianity, he mostly just catered to the elites in Washington, which pissed many of those social conservatives off (which then, led to Trump promptly ripping the GOP apart on that specific seam). If the GOP were to re-try and succeed on the idea of being the "Christian" party - they could pull a decent amount of the black vote if they did it correctly. It'd be hard, for sure. But it's definitely not impossible, and if the Dems ended up with a demagogue on their end who was fixated on non racial issues - it would be an opening.
There is also an age vs race issue - we know voters get more conservative as they get older (especially 60+), but a lot of black voters in that time frame have had Clinton + Obama to vote for. While Kerry did get a really good percentage of the vote two, I'd like a non-Clinton (aka, the first black president) or Obama (the actual first black president) or two to sustain said 60+ year old Af-Am vote before I start banking on it.
5) Yes - the Dems got hosed in the 2010 census because it happened to be the first election after a Dem president took office, and we know that mid-term elections generally swing (in non-war situations) towards the party that doesn't control the presidency. While 2020 offers some relief towards that in that it is a presidential election - as even some of Obama's folks have pointed out (see Channel 33 podcasts with two of Obama's folks) - a historically stronger factor is voter fatigue towards a party in power for four presidential elections. Let's assume that Clinton wins the presidency (I think a reasonable assumption, even with Trump's unpredictability). It would be the first time since 1952 that EDIT: The Democratic party won 3 in a row. It's really, really hard to stay in power that long, and if we didn't have the GOP lighting itself on fire and jumping out a window, I don't think we'd be winning. 4 in a row? Gonna be even crazier, especially if we don't have a strong economic recovery of some kind.
Also, this also assumes SCOTUS doesn't crush the whole process entirely and force all redistricting to be done via non-partisan committees (there have been a few cases in front of SCOTUS already, and there is a reasonable chance that by 2020, SCOTUS has nuked the current partisan redistricting entirely (see:
http://redistricting.lls.edu/)
6) SCOTUS comes down to more or less dumb luck and when folks retire. The dems have an unprecedented opportunity to stack SCOTUS - but there are potential significant long-term political consequences to having SCOTUS rulings over actually working the process legislatively (see abortion and Texas). I am going to assume that Scalia's replacement ends up being center / left of center, though.
7) I assume Senate goes Dem in 2016, but I also assume per normal mid-term patterns, that Senate ends up going GOP in 2018 if Clinton wins the presidency. (Ze Mid-Term curse)
Basically, it comes down to a simple question on the GOP side. Is Trump an outlier, or a predictor of the future?
EDIT: Y'all are right in that saying that the black vote would be "ripped away" is a poor choice of words (and wrong based on those words). By "ripped away", I mean "15-20% of black voters vote GOP, as opposed to the normal 5-10% we are currently seeing". I think a heavily focused evangelical not blatantly fucking racist GOP campaign could pull that off in the foreseeable future.
