The FL number is most likely fine since she won MS by expected. The OH you can totally suspect.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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The FL number is most likely fine since she won MS by expected. The OH you can totally suspect.
Have polls for Ohio weighed independents similarly to Michigan? Is Ohio also an open primary? Because that seems to be where all the pollsters gaffed from what I'm looking at.
Personally, I think it's more likely she'll win Ohio than not, but MI showed that the state is probably not going to just come to her. She'll need to criss-cross that state like she did SC.
Personally, I think it's more likely she'll win Ohio than not, but MI showed that the state is probably not going to just come to her. She'll need to criss-cross that state like she did SC.
idk. You don't need to in FL since its closed. The res are semi-open or open.
FloydtheFathead
Member
Hillary gets indicted.
We are sending a message!!!!
Jesus Christ, the Diablosing is fierce in here this morning. What has fundamentally changed over night? The polls in Michigan were horribly off. Bernie outperformed his polls in a region that intuitively seemed like it would be advantageous to him. That's it. Just like after Iowa and New Hampshire, the Clinton campaign will have to figure out what when wrong and will become a better campaign in the end. It is good to challenge Clinton in the rust belt now, because Trump certainly will.
Also, look back to posts made in the AM yesterday. We were all praying Trump had a good night because of all his negatives in the general. Flash forward 13 hours where the only change is Bernie OVERPERFORMING his polls in one state and people are acting like Clinton is going to get routed by Trump. What the fuck? This is going to be a long general...
Also, look back to posts made in the AM yesterday. We were all praying Trump had a good night because of all his negatives in the general. Flash forward 13 hours where the only change is Bernie OVERPERFORMING his polls in one state and people are acting like Clinton is going to get routed by Trump. What the fuck? This is going to be a long general...
Not me. Trump is da god king. Rubio tho. Lololol.
FloydtheFathead
Member
But it's easier to panic.. Panicking is fun.
People rationally know you're right it's just they have to endure another week of delusional bullshit that they get tired of. It's all about the optics man.
Adding to how important this election is...well yeah.
I won't feel comfortable until I see HRC being sworn in by Roberts
I really want her to over-perform next Tuesday, if only to see the pathetic media desperately backtrack and try to explain things after they freaked out last night.
At the very least, the Clinton campaign shouldn't take the polling for granted, especially in places like OH/MO.
And that's the frustrating thing about the media's need for a horserace. Optics and bullshit like momentum mean more than MATH and REALITY. You have these pundits and newscasters going, she had a big night, came out with more delegates and is still likely to be the nominee... BUT Bernie had this huge upset victory and omg huge problems for Hillary!!!!
It's because of expectations/polling, which she really had no control over. If Bernie had the polling Hillary had in MI and underperformed, what would people be saying about a 2% win?
At the very least, the Clinton campaign shouldn't take the polling for granted, especially in places like OH/MO.
And that's the frustrating thing about the media's need for a horserace. Optics and bullshit like momentum mean more than MATH and REALITY. You have these pundits and newscasters going, she had a big night, came out with more delegates and is still likely to be the nominee... BUT Bernie had this huge upset victory and omg huge problems for Hillary!!!!
It's because of expectations/polling, which she really had no control over. If Bernie had the polling Hillary had in MI and underperformed, what would people be saying about a 2% win?
Agreed.
It might also be time for her to spend a bit more cash.
From what I understand, she's raised more money overall, but he's still outspending her?
cartoon_soldier
Member
I can agree there.
People also need to keep in mind that pollsters are going to be wrongdrom time to time. It happens. This was a statistically significant failure, but hopefully it will help them get better over this cycle just like Bernie is helping Clinton get better.
We can't get complacent, but don't lose sight of the bigger picture people. Besides, the Bernie supporters had to listen to us Clinton fans beat the inevitability drum for two weeks. It's their turn for a little gloating. Nothing wrong with that.
Tarkus
Member
Saving this post to explain what diablosing is next time someone asks. However, I've been saying this all along.
cartoon_soldier
Member
PPP Ohio poll, which showed Clinton +20 or so, has similar Indie representation as 2008 primary.
AA vote is at 21% in that vs. 18% in 2008 exits.
But, big change is that 2008 exit had 17-44 age at 44% while PPP has it at 38%
AA vote is at 21% in that vs. 18% in 2008 exits.
But, big change is that 2008 exit had 17-44 age at 44% while PPP has it at 38%
If anything, given that the Clinton camp was desperately trying to temper expectations for MI ahead of yesterday, I think it's likely that they had internal numbers that told a far more realistic picture than anything we saw. So I'm a bit confident that whatever they are deciding to do, strategy and campaign-wise, moving forward is based on at least better data than we're seeing publicly. I think more cynical results projections are already baked into their current strategy moving forward. I mean, after what went down in 2008, the entire strategy was likely based around the most cynical numbers possible anyway.
Maybe some of us need to take a walk or something to calm ourselves down, but the biggest storyline out of last night for me personally is not Bernie winning Michigan (good for him btw), but rather a failing of predictions. Logically I cannot envision that a 21 point swing happened for no reason 3 days before the vote, therefore something was wrong with polling methodology.
From what I have been reading, Michigan is diverse enough to be hard to poll and polling places have not had much experience polling them in recent years, which lead to this botch of the century leading up to the primary. Therefore, going into the future we should look at states that have a similar polling history to Michigan and look at those polls with a curious eye.
Also the fact that bernie is still way behind his delegate count makes me feel bad for everyone that is claiming this as his biggest win ever. If this is his peak, this race is over sonner than you think.
From what I have been reading, Michigan is diverse enough to be hard to poll and polling places have not had much experience polling them in recent years, which lead to this botch of the century leading up to the primary. Therefore, going into the future we should look at states that have a similar polling history to Michigan and look at those polls with a curious eye.
Also the fact that bernie is still way behind his delegate count makes me feel bad for everyone that is claiming this as his biggest win ever. If this is his peak, this race is over sonner than you think.
cartoon_soldier
Member
We want it to be put to bed, time to start framing Republicans and GOP and stop worrying about defending NAFTA.
gutter_trash
Banned
Nice thread title
Michigan looks like an upside down Florida chopped into two lesser parts barely connecting
Michigan looks like an upside down Florida chopped into two lesser parts barely connecting
Speaking of NAFTA, here's SNL's take on it back in 1993. For many voters, I can see how it would hit right in the gut. I watched it this morning and was taken aback at how damn well it holds-up.
(And the really crude Mexican stereotype would fit perfectly with a Trump general campaign. That piñata!)
http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/mexican-stereotype/n10486
(And the really crude Mexican stereotype would fit perfectly with a Trump general campaign. That piñata!)
http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/mexican-stereotype/n10486
Here's hoping people get out and vote and not take part in any of the BS they did last night by trying to mess with the republican side.
So how bad are the morning shows talking about or playing up Hillary's lost in MI yesterday? Focusing on the delegate math or is it "dead heat" nonsense?
Vinsanity.
Member
Ohio is open. I'm an Independent that normally votes Democratic, but will be voting for Trump on Tuesday.
Florida is probably accurate and safe. Ohio? Start diablosing hard.
teruterubozu
Member
Oh man. Aren't there conservatives voting for Bernie with the same idea/tactic?
WHY
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
Is the Michigan loss for Hilary as big a deal as CNN is making it to be, or are they just pitching a more exciting story? The percentage wasn't by much and I read that independents push Bernie up. But I read Michigan is largely a Red state to begin with?
It's very confusing to a noob. orz
It's very confusing to a noob. orz
Coriolanus
Banned
And i quite enjoy the fact that you refrain from doing so, my friend.
There is a very easy and obvious way to fix these weaknesses of hers.... Coincidentally, it would also instantly take Bern out of the race. Just sayian.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
After reading some articles about the GOP elites maybe embracing Cruz I have to say that I underestimated how strong their fear of Trump actually is. I would have thought that by now they'd be in the acceptance stage and possibly crafting a GE strategy.
But no, they're doing everything they can to hurt their most likely nominee. Wouldn't have guessed that the neocons and donors were that desperate to keep 100% of the party agenda for themselves.
But no, they're doing everything they can to hurt their most likely nominee. Wouldn't have guessed that the neocons and donors were that desperate to keep 100% of the party agenda for themselves.
Vinsanity.
Member
Maximum chaos. And I don't prefer Hillary over Bernie or vice-versa - I'll vote for either of them over any Rep candidate in November.
Coriolanus
Banned
You told us Hillary had it in the bag. Seems like the polls were wrong.
I wonder how many others were like me and saw the endless stream of Hillary up 15-20 points consistently in Michigan and voted Sanders just as tip of the hat to the hard left assuming Hillary had it in the bag.
teruterubozu
Member
Michigan's been blue since '92.
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
teruterubozu
Member
Unfortunately that's the plague of the nation.
Coriolanus
Banned
Short-term fix. This is hills we talking about. She'll find a way to squander that too.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Voting for Bernie at this point doesn't hurt Hillary. In fact, this loss will only help her in the general if you consider what likely contributed to her loss last night:Just like the democrats!
Hillary supporters, stop diablosing: you can afford the L. Primaries strengthen candidates, right?
So are people still thinking Castro for VP? Because looking at Hillary's weaknesses and the most likely GE opponent (Trump) I'd say that makes no sense.
pls. DWS is doing a great PR job for hillary, no need to worry.
Just like the democrats!
pls. DWS is doing a great PR job for hillary, no need to worry.
Coriolanus
Banned
RustyNails
Member
Thats not good for candidate Hillary. She needs to sharpen her message some more in rust belt.
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