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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
besada said:
I just discovered that Firing Line with William Buckley, Jr. is available on Amazon Instant video. This is amazing for people interested in politics. I'm watching Buckley and Jesse Jackson arguing about "Blacks and the economy" during the Reagan administration.

So much better than the shit interviews on cable and network TV today.
Click to expand...
I think I promoted these before. They added like a hundred plus episodes a couple years ago.

There's one with...SAUL ALINSKY chain smoking and acting smug as fuck throughout the entire thing. http://www.amazon.com/dp/B007Q3J8IO/?tag=neogaf0e-20

This one is pretty great: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B006JIUECG/?tag=neogaf0e-20
You have Buckley and Christopher Hitchens having their own little secret side discussion as R. Emmett Tyrrell tries to turn it into a modern era shoutfest against lieberals while being constantly befuddled and upset by their jokes and esoteric cultural references.

I believe this is the first ever Firing Line episode: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B007POIQ7S/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Hugh Hefner: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B007Q1V9L0/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Buckley and Galbraith, who were friends so it's full of them constantly making fun of each other: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00B7X31OG/?tag=neogaf0e-20

There's an amusing one where an old white lady who is the examiner tries to explain to a fairly young Thomas Sowell what it's like to grow up poor and black in America.

Buckley addressed his guests as "Mr." or "Mrs." He once called Margaret Thatcher "Margaret" because he thought she had addressed him as "Bill". He was embarrassed later when he saw the transcript and realized she had been referring to a legislative bill. He immediately wrote a personal letter of apology to the Prime Minister.
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oh wfb
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I knew Trump would take Michigan and figured Cruz would take Idaho, but I had no idea Trump would take Hawaii.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
adam387 said:
Man, ya'll woulda been dead in 2008 if you were a Hillary supporter. Ya, I spazzed out when I knew she lost, but she's still got the nomination sewn up. Ain't no thang. I think he campaign made some missteps, but she'll correct it.

I still think Bernie takes Ohio, though.
Click to expand...

Yep Bernie takes Ohio.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
CNN Polls:

In Ohio, Trump holds 41% to Kasich's 35%, with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in third at 15% and Rubio in fourth with 7%.

And in Florida, Trump holds 40% to Rubio's 24%, with Cruz at 19% and Kasich at 5%.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Sanders 63% to 33% in Ohio and 61% to 34% in Florida. About 7 in 10 voters in each state say they have definitely decided whom to support.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/09/politics/trump-clinton-lead-florida-ohio/index.html
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Well if so you're basically saying that polling again is historically wrong. But welcome to 2016.

I am surprised the black vote in Ohio and Michigan is as small as it is in percentage terms. I thought it would be much bigger, like 20% or 25%.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Cant believe Rubio didnt win a single delegate here, wow

i know his team said the states werent favorable to him but still.

surprised Trump won Hawaii too
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Looking at PPP (CL+10) vs Exit Poll

PPP: 67% White vs. 68% in Exit. Not a big difference.

PPP: 79% Dem, 18% Indy, 3% Rep. Exit Poll: 69% Dem, 28% Indy, 3% Rep. Big difference

PPP: 18-45 39%, 45-65 40%, 65+ 20%. Exit Poll: 18-44:45%. Big difference

PPP: Clinton winning 71% of AA vote, Exit Poll: 65%.

You wonder if this happens because pollsters had no proper primary voting data from 2008 or 2012 on Dem side to go on? I assume pollsters are analyzing where they went wrong and seeing if they need to correct for OH, WI, IL, etc.

Also, Clinton will most likely cut down Sanders lead as counting finishes.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
cartoon_soldier said:
Looking at PPP (CL+10) vs Exit Poll

PPP: 67% White vs. 68% in Exit. Not a big difference.

PPP: 79% Dem, 18% Indy, 3% Rep. Exit Poll: 69% Dem, 28% Indy, 3% Rep. Big difference

PPP: 18-45 39%, 45-65 40%, 65+ 20%. Exit Poll: 18-44:45%. Big difference

PPP: Clinton winning 71% of AA vote, Exit Poll: 65%.

You wonder if this happens because pollsters had no proper primary voting data from 2008 or 2012 on Dem side to go on? I assume pollsters are analyzing where they went wrong and seeing if they need to correct for OH, WI, IL, etc.

Also, Clinton will most likely cut down Sanders lead as counting finishes.
Click to expand...

Well there wasn't a primary in Michigan in 2004 and 2000 either. I think they were caucuses. But still. Huge miss.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Looking at PPP (CL+10) vs Exit Poll

PPP: 67% White vs. 68% in Exit. Not a big difference.

PPP: 79% Dem, 18% Indy, 3% Rep. Exit Poll: 69% Dem, 28% Indy, 3% Rep. Big difference

PPP: 18-45 39%, 45-65 40%, 65+ 20%. Exit Poll: 18-44:45%. Big difference

PPP: Clinton winning 71% of AA vote, Exit Poll: 65%.

You wonder if this happens because pollsters had no proper primary voting data from 2008 or 2012 on Dem side to go on? I assume pollsters are analyzing where they went wrong and seeing if they need to correct for OH, WI, IL, etc.

Also, Clinton will most likely cut down Sanders lead as counting finishes.
Click to expand...

Don't expect much. Every county except for one has reported 100% of precincts, and the lone exception has reported 83%.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Wake up and see that Trump won Hawaii


Bahahahaha how?? Last night was literally the Revenge of the Donald.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
PPP's Dem / Ind / Rep breakdown in their polling seems to just be based on 2008's messed up primary. It matches the exit polling exactly.

Their 18-45 vs over 45 seems to be under that exit polling. Although, I think that figure is pretty unexpected regardless. I don't know if any other state has had a 45/55 split of under/over 45 yo.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
I'm starting to believe Clinton is an underdog going into Ohio.

There's a distinct lack of enthusiasm for her in this primary cycle... does not bode well for the general.
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
Rubenov said:
I'm starting to believe Clinton is an underdog going into Ohio.

There's a distinct lack of enthusiasm for her in this primary cycle... does not bode well for the general.
Click to expand...

There's definitely a ceiling to her excitement. Not sure what she can do to change that.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
CNN Polls:

In Ohio, Trump holds 41% to Kasich's 35%, with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in third at 15% and Rubio in fourth with 7%.

And in Florida, Trump holds 40% to Rubio's 24%, with Cruz at 19% and Kasich at 5%.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Sanders 63% to 33% in Ohio and 61% to 34% in Florida. About 7 in 10 voters in each state say they have definitely decided whom to support.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/09/politics/trump-clinton-lead-florida-ohio/index.html
Click to expand...

Clinton will definitely take Florida but I'm still shaken enough to not be confident about Ohio.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Rubenov said:
I'm starting to believe Clinton is an underdog going into Ohio.

There's a distinct lack of enthusiasm for her in this primary cycle... does not bode well for the general.
Click to expand...

Not really born out by polls of Democrats. They are just open primaries. Have to deal with that.

Rubio's many bracelets really annoy me.

ap_980387957527.jpg


metalslimer said:
Clinton will definitely take Florida but I'm still shaken enough to not be confident about Ohio.
Click to expand...
Mathematically, she just has to be "close" until April when she should really pull away, but it's not great to look like a flop.
 
P

PBY

Banned
I feel like on Thursday - Trump literally has to chill. No attacks, just be presidential, let lil Marco and Ted flail away. Just respond to every attack w/ poll numbers.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
CNN poll has Hillary up by 30 in Ohio, while Quinnipiac has her up by 9. Conducted roughly during the same days.

I'm believing Quinnipiac's more than CNN's, and if so, she needs a masse GOTV effort to avoid another Michigan.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
benjipwns said:
I think I promoted these before. They added like a hundred plus episodes a couple years ago.

There's one with...SAUL ALINSKY chain smoking and acting smug as fuck throughout the entire thing. http://www.amazon.com/dp/B007Q3J8IO/?tag=neogaf0e-20

This one is pretty great: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B006JIUECG/?tag=neogaf0e-20
You have Buckley and Christopher Hitchens having their own little secret side discussion as R. Emmett Tyrrell tries to turn it into a modern era shoutfest against lieberals while being constantly befuddled and upset by their jokes and esoteric cultural references.

I believe this is the first ever Firing Line episode: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B007POIQ7S/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Hugh Hefner: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B007Q1V9L0/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Buckley and Galbraith, who were friends so it's full of them constantly making fun of each other: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00B7X31OG/?tag=neogaf0e-20

There's an amusing one where an old white lady who is the examiner tries to explain to a fairly young Thomas Sowell what it's like to grow up poor and black in America.


oh wfb
Click to expand...

If you enjoy policy, politics, or simply like smug British people you need to watch this. Many segments are on YouTube as well. The Alinsky episode is priceless gold.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Y2Kev said:
Not really born out by polls of Democrats. They are just open primaries. Have to deal with that.

Rubio's many bracelets really annoy me.

ap_980387957527.jpg



Mathematically, she just has to be "close" until April when she should really pull away, but it's not great to look like a flop.
Click to expand...

Yeah I'm not worded about the nomination but If she limps into the convention it would reinforce a lot of the negatives against her
 
P

PBY

Banned
metalslimer said:
Yeah I'm not worded about the nomination but If she limps into the convention it would reinforce a lot of the negatives against her
Click to expand...

Its also just a bad media night for her. On a night where the media seems to be pushing Trump as the candidate, the reverse is true on the dem side, which is crazy (bc math); but the Narrative(tm) is really bad for her today.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Looking at some of these polls again, they seemed to overweight the female vote at 60%. PPP was 58%. Exit poll was 56%. Shifts the margin a bit but not enough to flip the result and certainly not enough to bring about those margins. But it probably did compound the error.

The main thing really does seem to be the % independents, which probably also impacted the % 18-44 vote.

On an aside, I don't know if everyone reporting got into a room and decided on words to use, but the headlines seem to be variations of "stun" and "upset" across like half a dozen news sources, lol.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Also, if we're being honest - this Rubio thing is astounding. We can point to dick jokes and his dumb tan comments - but how did he go from the "not-Trump" option, to being nearly out of the race in one week?

I've never seen anything like this.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
PBY said:
Also, if we're being honest - this Rubio thing is astounding. We can point to dick jokes and his dumb tan comments - but how did he go from the "not-Trump" option, to being nearly out of the race in one week?

I've never seen anything like this.
Click to expand...

So many people in the OT were saying not only would he be the nominee but also the next President. I did a lot of smh
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
PBY said:
Also, if we're being honest - this Rubio thing is astounding. We can point to dick jokes and his dumb tan comments - but how did he go from the "not-Trump" option, to being nearly out of the race in one week?

I've never seen anything like this.
Click to expand...
I find this to be particularly frustrating because I see at least two outlets this morning publishing articles about how Rubio never had a base and never was a natural fit for this race. None of that ever stopped those outlets from hyping him to high heaven and giving him incredibly positive media coverage for months on end despite there being no one behind the curtain!

The beltway is so far up its own behind that it's getting easier and easier to predict what each day's story is going to be.

I'm very interested in Florida now. I'd say it's for sure going to be a disaster for Rubio but it is a closed primary and early voting may help save him from embarrassment.
 
D

Diablos

Member
I think MI results are quite alarming for Hillary and Democrats in general.

-Traditional polling is going to the wayside. If a MI-style upset happens 1-2 more times at least then I think that would be a forgone conclusion but really we're heading in that direction regardless. FIX YOUR SHIT POLLSTERS.

-Hillary has a problem connecting with voters. Younger voters, rust belt workers, independents... it's quite concerning to me. I think if she wins the nom she'll have a hard time getting key demographics to really turn out for her where she needs them.

-After last night I don't blame Bernie for wanting to stick around. The problem is the Democrats don't have the luxury of dragging this out like they did in 2008 because the Republicans are way more energized this time around after 8 years of Obama; the dynamic is different. I fear that by dragging this out for too long, Democrats will take away time that should be spent on attacking Trump/GOP.

-WE ARE UNDERESTIMATING TRUMP. He's getting crossover votes. Are some from Democrats just trying to throw a wrench in the mix? Sure. Not all of them are though. This is why we need to be careful what we wish for. We've been hoping that Trump wins becuase we assume he'd be so easy to beat, but really, this guy is getting ridiculous turnout and again seems to have crossover appeal. He won in HAWAII for fuck's sake. Hawaii! Are you kidding me? To echo Chris Christie, as much as I hate to, Hillary knows the game well and would tear Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and really even Jeb to shreds. I think she'd give Kasich a tough fight too. What she isn't groomed to do, however, is go up against a guy like Trump who basically is breaking all the rules and not only getting away with it, but getting awarded for it by getting closer and closer to the nomination by the day. To that point, I worry about Hillary's GE chances in states like MI and OH. Possibly PA but I doubt it.

I really am starting to question Hillary's electability and for once might be buying Trump's argument that he can make progress in places with people that Democrats typically win over.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
We are really not underestimating trump IMO. Look at those abc favorables from yesterday.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Y2Kev said:
We are really not underestimating trump IMO. Look at those abc favorables from yesterday.
Click to expand...
Hillary has high negatives too. Not as high as Trump, but really, when it boils down to "we suck less" a candidate's favorable rating is going to take a backseat to other issues.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
But it's different. People think Hillary is dishonest. People think trump is a racist sexist pig. I'm really not worried about trump.

Plus if he wins I'll get a huge tax cut and will use it to buy stamps so I can send hate mail to democrats in Michigan. We call that "sending a message" lol omg I sent a message lol!!!
 
F

fantomena

Member
Can someone tell me why AP is calling Sanders winning Michigan shocking? I haven't been following US politics a lot the last few days.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
fantomena said:
Can someone tell me why AP is calling Sanders winning Michigan shocking? I haven't been following US politics a lot the last few days.
Click to expand...

every single Michigan poll had Clinton winning by double digits, and Sanders also got 30% of the black vote in the state, his best in the primaries overall
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Kyosaiga said:
Hillary lost Michigan?

I'm legit shocked
Click to expand...
I'm surprised, too. A remarkable failure of polling. Was it specific to Michigan, or are there more failures on the way? We'l know soon enough.

And a failure of her GOTV machine. I wonder how Mr Mook is feeling this morning. He was the hero in Nevada, but he [TrumpVoice]choked like a DOG[/TrumpVoice] last night.

Still, she's on track. Kinda cruel to give the reddit folks hope like this, although the strident complaining about superdelegates is probably preemptive acknowledgement/scapegoating for how this will end.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I can't believe trump only netted 15 delegates yesterday. The republican system is whack.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Y2Kev said:
But it's different. People think Hillary is dishonest. People think trump is a racist sexist pig. I'm really not worried about trump.

Plus if he wins I'll get a huge tax cut and will use it to buy stamps so I can send hate mail to democrats in Michigan. We call that "sending a message" lol omg I sent a message lol!!!
Click to expand...

There's nothing funny about a Trump win >_<

Is Trump an HONEST racist sexist pig? That's the question. People are so pissed off today. Trump turnout is just unbelievable.

I can't believe we've gone from Obama to Trump dominating the headlines for a Presidential election. What is happening to this country?
 
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