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[Makai]

This is truly mind boggling to me. I just don't understand. I doubt it's a huge portion of Bernie supporters that will do this but the fact that any of them will is insane. The two politicians couldn't be any more different.

This explains it:

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism

Imagine a different left-right gradient. Libertarianism vs authoritarianism.

 

[RustyNails]

I'm just glad I made poligaf waste 3 pages on the tyler dude and his polls/predictions. Donald Trump would be proud.

 

[Paskil]

Yeah, a lot of my white male friends have been rationalizing possible support for trump and it's kinda terrifying.

I'm fairly certain this will begin to die down over the next several months. Trump and his supporters will continue to alienate him to independents and disaffected Democratic voters.

 

[brainchild]

You know, you might as well post how his predictions have fared vs actual results:

2/27
South Carolina: prediction-Clinton 60.50%, actual-Clinton 73.88% (13.38% bias in favor of Sanders)

3/1
Minnesota: prediction-Clinton 52.02%, actual-Sanders 61.69% (13.71% bias in favor of Clinton, got the winner wrong)
Colorado: prediction-Sanders 52.94%, actual-Sanders 59.36% (6.42% bias in favor of Clinton)
Virginia: prediction-Clinton 68.49%, actual-Clinton 64.63% (3.86% bias in favor of Clinton)
Arkansas: prediction-Clinton 65.34%, actual-Clinton 69.03% (3.69% bias in favor of Sanders)
Massachusetts: prediction-Clinton 58.02%, actual-Clinton 50.72% (7.3% bias in favor of Clinton)
Oklahoma: prediction-Sanders 53.49%, actual-Sanders 55.54% (2.05% bias in favor of Clinton)
Alabama: prediction-Clinton 72.86%, actual-Clinton 80.22% (7.36% bias in favor of Sanders)
Texas: prediction-Clinton 59.42%, actual-Clinton 66.30% (6.88% bias in favor of Sanders)
Tennessee: prediction-Clinton 67.26%, actual-Clinton 67.09% (.17% bias in favor of Clinton)
Georgia: prediction-Clinton 73.99%, actual-Clinton 71.70% (2.29% bias in favor of Clinton)
Vermont: prediction-Sanders 71.33%, actual-Sanders 86.34% (15.01% bias in favor of Clinton, but I think this can be handwaved as a home state advantage)

3/5-3/6
Kansas: prediction-Sanders 57.85%, actual-Sanders 67.75% (9.9% bias in favor of Clinton)
Louisiana: prediction-Clinton 66.18%, actual-Clinton 75.42% (9.24% bias in favor of Sanders)
Nebraska: prediction-Sanders 62.28%, actual-Sanders 57.15% (5.13% bias in favor of Sanders)
Maine: prediction-Sanders 61.62%, actual-Sanders 64.39% (2.77% bias in favor of Clinton)

3/8 aka the day people actually started paying attention to this guy
Michigan: prediction-Sanders 53.48%, actual-Sanders 50.77% (2.71% bias in favor of Sanders)
Mississippi: prediction-Clinton 81.94%, actual-Clinton 83.39% (1.45% bias in favor of Sanders)

general thoughts: idk lol

(note that as far as margins of victory go, multiply the "bias" by 2, I also removed all non-Clinton/Sanders votes from the actual results to bring it in line with the predictions)

Thanks for posting this, BTW.

He's gotten less wrong with each set of predictions, but that's not too meaningful when he's not predicting as many states as he did on the first Super Tuesday.

 

[T'Zariah]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOQEVbQdkzo

ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?!

 

[Cerium]

I doubt it's a huge portion of Bernie supporters

I don't.

Neither campaign is about policy. They just want to overturn some tables. If the revolution can't be socialist, then they're happy to make it fascist instead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOQEVbQdkzo

ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?!

This should surprise no one. Bernie supporters are showing their true colors.

 

[Yoda]

This is truly mind boggling to me. I just don't understand. I doubt it's a huge portion of Bernie supporters that will do this but the fact that any of them will is insane. The two politicians couldn't be any more different.

While I don't condone ignoring Trump's toxic rhetoric, it's not that far of a leap that voters simply do NOT want anyone who is viewed as part of the establishment. Hiliary is the most establishment candidate out of all the candidates (both sides). There is a sizable portion of this country that is 100% fed up with our elected politicians making X claims in a campaign and never delivering.

https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites...testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf

The U.S. government is less responsive to an individual as you go down the socio-economic ladder and more responsive as you go up. Prominent researchers (see the study above) have gone on the record saying we are headed towards (if not already) an oligarchy, and for better or worse, Hillary is a part of that group.

 

[VendettaRed07]

The young Turks were a mistake.

 

[Makai]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOQEVbQdkzo

ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?!

lolllllllllllllllllllllllllllll. Summarize for us.

 

[User 406]

Fiscal conservatism is a joke. People loooove saying they are fiscally conservative so they can feel special and above the two parties. For the last 30 years, fiscal conservatism has meant tax cuts for millionaires, ballooning military budgets and costly incursions into foreign lands, and cuts to federal services and programs that ameliorate the crushing pressure on the poor.
Sorry for my outburst, both sides are the same, the increase in military spending paid for itself with the collapse of the soviet union, etc etc

Funniest quote I've seen on the matter: "hmm well I'd say I'm fiscally conservative but socially very liberal. the problems are bad but their causes...their causes are very good"

Man, if ONLY that Iran mission wasn't botched, back in '80.

Haha, that brings me back, in high school I actually said this exact same thing to a classmate. It was like '87 or '88 or thereabouts, and I was similarly lamenting Carter's loss and the consequences.

...

What the fuck is going on with him.

Neil deGrasse Tyson – Verified account ‏@neiltyson

If there were ever a species for whom sex hurt, it surely went extinct long ago.
2:59 PM - 11 Mar 2016
https://mobile.twitter.com/neiltyson/status/708427052433678336?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Go home, Neil, you're drunk.

 

[Macho Madness]

Bernie Sanders is releasing a new policy plan to combat HIV/AIDS , pledging "virtually universal access" to drugs treating the disease.

He is also pledging to create a $3 billion a year prize fund to incentivize drug development and increase federal funding to double the number of people on HIV treatment worldwide by 2020.

The disease is "one of the great moral issues of our day," says Sanders, in a statement. America must act to do "end the greed of the pharmaceutical companies."

Sanders plan comes a day after rival Hillary Clinton apologized for remarks crediting Nancy Reagan with taking early action to stop the spread of the disease. Those comments outraged activists who said the Reagan administration lagged in taking action as the illness ravaged the gay community.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2805...st-trump-might-pay-legal-bills-sucker-puncher

 

[T'Zariah]

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2805...st-trump-might-pay-legal-bills-sucker-puncher

Too bad he's months late to the game.

 

[User 406]

lolllllllllllllllllllllllllllll. Summarize for us.

You need more than the video title? Accelerationism, ho! Scalia must be rolling in his grave, laughing his ass off.

 

[NeoXChaos]

is the Tuner Classic Movie guy on the Turks all the time? Is he like Cenk or is he more level-headed?

 

[Makai]

I learned that Reagan ran three times for the Republican nomination before winning.

 

[T'Zariah]

lolllllllllllllllllllllllllllll. Summarize for us.

Basically.

-Ana says if her feet was held to the fire, she'd vote for Hillary, but she'd hate herself for it.
-Jimmy says he won't vote for Hillary under any circumstances. If that means Trump becomes President he says "Well, then I guess America will just have to get through it."
-Ana starts to rationalize "Maybe he'll do so crappy like GWB that we'll get a wave of Progressives"
-Jimmy says when people get a good look at Trump they'll get sick of him. Claims Hillary is a neoliberal corporatist who'll start another war
-Jimmy claims Trump will probably do some better things than Hillary, because "We won't know what Trump will do, we know what She will do."
-If Trump becomes President "We still have a Congress"
-"If you really think Trump is Hitler why wouldn't you not vote for his opponent?

 

[Macho Madness]

I learned that Reagan ran three times for the Republican nomination before winning.

He nearly stopped Ford too.

 

[Holmes]

is the Tuner Classic Movie guy on the Turks all the time? Is he like Cenk or is he more level-headed?

Yeah. He was there since the beginning.

 

[brainchild]

Nate actually loves Google searches for whatever reason and talks about them a lot. Probably his favorite indicator after favorability and endorsements.

Well, Nate largely makes his predictions based on poll aggregates and weights. He may love Google trends, buy they certainly do not affect his predictions on the primaries.

Then he runs into the very problem I pointed out earlier: would this even work in another scenario? Unless he can apply this to the GOP or other scenarios with more than 2 people running there's no point. If all he can predict if Bernie vs Hillary then who cares? We already know how that's turning out.

We're talking in circles at this point. I don't really care to argue about caring about what we're talking about, so if you don't care or don't think that others will, you're more than welcome to hold that opinion.

The problem with this is that there is still a significant part of the voting population that cannot be adequately counted in this fashion. It's the same issue I expect to start to rear its head when the baby boomers start dying off, assuming telephone polling is still the main polling method, at that point. Assuming his method is in any way viable, I imagine it would be more accurate if he managed to find a way to incorporate traditional polling into his averages.

I don't think it really matters if he remains accurate despite not specifically factoring them in. The results are ultimately what matter.

 

[pigeon]

Thanks for posting this, BTW.

He's gotten less wrong with each set of predictions, but that's not too meaningful when he's not predicting as many states as he did on the first Super Tuesday.

Yeah, that's kind of my read. After the 15th, it's worth looking again and seeing how he did. I'm not super impressed so far, but it's not a crazy methodology, so who knows?

 

[Mrs. Manky]

Does someone need to check in on Mrs. Tyson to see if she's okay?

 

[DarkKyo]

This is truly mind boggling to me. I just don't understand. I doubt it's a huge portion of Bernie supporters that will do this but the fact that any of them will is insane. The two politicians couldn't be any more different.

As a Bernie supporter myself I don't want Hillary but I definitely don't want Trump. He's a piece of shit.

 

[Third Strike]

Basically.

-Ana says if her feet was held to the fire, she'd vote for Hillary, but she'd hate herself for it.
-Jimmy says he won't vote for Hillary under any circumstances. If that means Trump becomes President he says "Well, then I guess America will just have to get through it."
-Ana starts to rationalize "Maybe he'll do so crappy like GWB that we'll get a wave of Progressives"
-Jimmy says when people get a good look at Trump they'll get sick of him. Claims Hillary is a neoliberal corporatist who'll start another war
-Jimmy claims Trump will probably do some better things than Hillary, because "We won't know what Trump will do, we know what She will do."
-If Trump becomes President "We still have a Congress"
-"If you really think Trump is Hitler why wouldn't you not vote for his opponent?

This is not only disgusting, but very dangerous.

 

[Dan]

While I don't condone ignoring Trump's toxic rhetoric, it's not that far of a leap that voters simply do NOT want anyone who is viewed as part of the establishment. Hiliary is the most establishment candidate out of all the candidates (both sides). There is a sizable portion of this country that is 100% fed up with our elected politicians making X claims in a campaign and never delivering.

https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites...testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf

The U.S. government is less responsive to an individual as you go down the socio-economic ladder and more responsive as you go up. Prominent researchers (see the study above) have gone on the record saying we are headed towards (if not already) an oligarchy, and for better or worse, Hillary is a part of that group.

Anyone putting some litmus test about establishment over top of actual policy positions is an irresponsible voter. The people I've seen go from Ron Paul to Bernie Sanders, or those who claim they'll go from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump, are really, really attracted to a certain cult of personality.

 

[B-Dubs]

Basically.

-Ana says if her feet was held to the fire, she'd vote for Hillary, but she'd hate herself for it.
-Jimmy says he won't vote for Hillary under any circumstances. If that means Trump becomes President he says "Well, then I guess America will just have to get through it."
-Ana starts to rationalize "Maybe he'll do so crappy like GWB that we'll get a wave of Progressives"
-Jimmy says when people get a good look at Trump they'll get sick of him. Claims Hillary is a neoliberal corporatist who'll start another war
-Jimmy claims Trump will probably do some better things than Hillary, because "We won't know what Trump will do, we know what She will do."
-If Trump becomes President "We still have a Congress"
-"If you really think Trump is Hitler why wouldn't you not vote for his opponent?

WOW. Are they fucking serious? Bunch of assholes, I thought my opinion of TYT couldn't get any lower.

 

[Slayven]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOQEVbQdkzo

ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?!

Sounds about right, they perfect example of liberals that is only liberal as long as it is convenient for them. Bill Mahrs I like to call them.

Must be nice to have that much privilege, must be nice

 

[brainchild]

Yeah, that's kind of my read. After the 15th, it's worth looking again and seeing how he did. I'm not super impressed so far, but it's not a crazy methodology, so who knows?

Definitely. I'm more interested in seeing how he does on the 15th with more states to predict, and won't put much stock into his predictions until his margins of error are consistently low.

However, there must be something different that he's seeing with FL and NC for the margins to be so much higher than the other states, so that's interesting, considering that his predictions aren't based on polls.

 

[Grief.exe]

Bernie, and if not, Trump. A lot of coworkers have that same mentality it seems. They joke about all the racist/fascist stuff he says but if it's him or Hillary they'll vote Trump.

Most likely a result of the constant attacking of her political career from the right.

 

[theprodigy]

Definitely. I'm more interested in seeing how he does on the 15th with more states to predict, and won't put much stock into his predictions until his margins of error are consistently low.

However, there must be something different that he's seeing with FL and NC for the margins to be so much higher than the other states, so that's interesting, considering that his predictions aren't based on polls.

Well, Florida/North Carolina being safe Clinton and the other 3 being tossups is not exactly a prediction that's out there.

 

[T'Zariah]

WOW. Are they fucking serious? Bunch of assholes, I thought my opinion of TYT couldn't get any lower.

Five or six years ago, I had a shit ton of respect for Cenk, even if I disagreed with a lot of his critiques of Obama.

Now?

Fuck both him and everyone on that piece of shit network.

 

[User 463088]

So, I have a question for you all.

Do you think Trump is actually a racist piece of shit, or is he acting like a racist piece of shit to get the rest of the racist pieces of shit to vote for him?

I'm torn. I'm really torn.

 

[T'Zariah]

So, I have a question for you all.

Do you think Trump is actually a racist piece of shit, or is he acting like a racist piece of shit to get the rest of the racist pieces of shit to vote for him?

I'm torn. I'm really torn.

Dude's a racist.

Full stop.

Anyone who panders to racists is more or less a racist in my view.

 

[Macho Madness]

I thought the one guy (can't remember his name) made a good point at least. "You can't call Trump Hitler and then not vote for his opponent. It doesn't work like that."

 

[Slayven]

So, I have a question for you all.

Do you think Trump is actually a racist piece of shit, or is he acting like a racist piece of shit to get the rest of the racist pieces of shit to vote for him?

I'm torn. I'm really torn.

a little A and a little of B

 

[Macho Madness]

So, I have a question for you all.

Do you think Trump is actually a racist piece of shit, or is he acting like a racist piece of shit to get the rest of the racist pieces of shit to vote for him?

I'm torn. I'm really torn.

Here's the question you actually need to ask: Is there a meaningful difference between the two?

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

Sounds about right, they perfect example of liberals that is only liberal as long as it is convenient for them. Bill Mahrs I like to call them.

Must be nice to have that much privilege, must be nice

So is anybody who doesn't vote directly against Trump by voting for the person most likely to beat him (Hillary Clinton) persona non grata? I'm not even talking just about the Bernie stans who won't vote Hillary, but the people who vote Libertarian and Green, the people uninvested in politics who don't vote, and those who write in people they liked in the primaries who dropped out. I actually think Hillary vs. Trump is one of the safest electoral matches in history in which to cast a protest vote, because I can't even see him doing as well as Romney, who got blown the fuck out, let alone well enough to be any kind of threat.

Edit: I think Trump, personally, is probably a classic diet racist, but I think his campaign persona is 60-75% an act, and that the Birther shit was him wading his toes into the water and realizing he could float in it without sinking. His entire campaign is basically a series of marketing slogans, and there is no actual coherency TO his racism, which makes me think he's basically just manufacturing it as he goes along. I think what he mainly cares about is being anti-free trade, and knows that racism is the best grease for that particular machine. Heck, of the GOP candidates running, I'd wager he'd probably be the most socially liberal, because I don't think he gives a FUCK about gay marriage and would sell the anti-Planned Parenthood shit down the river in a second if it got him a deal in Congress he could brag about.

 

[Makai]

So, I have a question for you all.

Do you think Drumpf is actually a racist piece of shit, or is he acting like a racist piece of shit to get the rest of the racist pieces of shit to vote for him?

I'm torn. I'm really torn.

In the middle. Less racist than Mitt Romney.

 

[User 463088]

Dude's a racist.

Full stop.

Anyone who panders to racists is more or less a racist in my view.

a little A and a little of B

Here's the question you actually need to ask: Is there a meaningful difference between the two?

Fair points. Because I don't know which is worst being a racist or pandering to racists. The thing is, I don't actually know where Trump stands on anything other than the size of his hands. Everything else is just him marketing himself like the business man he is.

The fact that marketing yourself as a fucking racist can get you the nomination of one of our political parties makes me want to fucking vomit.

 

[Boke1879]

Basically.

-Ana says if her feet was held to the fire, she'd vote for Hillary, but she'd hate herself for it.
-Jimmy says he won't vote for Hillary under any circumstances. If that means Trump becomes President he says "Well, then I guess America will just have to get through it."
-Ana starts to rationalize "Maybe he'll do so crappy like GWB that we'll get a wave of Progressives"
-Jimmy says when people get a good look at Trump they'll get sick of him. Claims Hillary is a neoliberal corporatist who'll start another war
-Jimmy claims Trump will probably do some better things than Hillary, because "We won't know what Trump will do, we know what She will do."
-If Trump becomes President "We still have a Congress"
-"If you really think Trump is Hitler why wouldn't you not vote for his opponent?

Yea...nah I can't get behind this. It's pretty much throwing a tantrum because your candidate didn't get picked and then trying to "punish" those that didn't vote for him.

Why in Gods name would you want Trump as President?

 

[Slayven]

So is anybody who doesn't vote directly against Trump by voting for the person most likely to beat him (Hillary Clinton) persona non grata? I'm not even talking just about the Bernie stans who won't vote Hillary, but the people who vote Libertarian and Green, the people uninvested in politics who don't vote, and those who write in people they liked in the primaries who dropped out. I actually think Hillary vs. Trump is one of the safest electoral matches in history in which to cast a protest vote, because I can't even see him doing as well as Romney, who got blown the fuck out, let alone well enough to be any kind of threat.

Those poeple have always been here,Nader was a thing for the longest, but this breed that spawned this election cycle threatening to vote for Trump for the LOLZ, cause the system needs to be taken down, or because their favorite candidate doesn't get a shot? Those people need a hard look at themselves and why they don't give a shit for their fellow Americans.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Here's the question you actually need to ask: Is there a meaningful difference between the two?

.

also, color me unsurprised that TYT is resorting to goddamn accelerationism arguments because Their Boy ain't winning

so glad none of the bernie stans on my facebook cite them (aside from one guy who kind of parrots an old teacher of his)

 

[NYCmetsfan]

So, I have a question for you all.

Do you think Trump is actually a racist piece of shit, or is he acting like a racist piece of shit to get the rest of the racist pieces of shit to vote for him?

I'm torn. I'm really torn.

Racist.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Fair points. Because I don't know which is worst being a racist or pandering to racists. The thing is, I don't actually know where Trump stands on anything other than the size of his hands. Everything else is just him marketing himself like the business man he is.

Trump's history shows that he is completely willing to pander to and enable racists. He was sued for keeping minorities out of his properties and he excluded them from parts of his casino to keep a mobster happy. I'm sure he can have a civil conversation with a black person but he's clearly fine with them being treated like second class citizens.

 

[Macho Madness]

Those poeple have always been here,Nader was a thing for the longest, but this breed that spawned this election cycle threatening to vote for Trump for the LOLZ, cause the system needs to be taken down, or because they favorite candidate doesn't get a shot? Those people need a hard look at themselves and why they don't give a shit for their fellow Americans.

I think that's part of the reasoning though. "I've been voting for other people's interests for too long and it's gotten me nowhere."

I don't agree with it but I understand it a little bit.

 

[thepotatoman]

This explains it:

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism

Imagine a different left-right gradient. Libertarianism vs authoritarianism.

Except there's nothing pointing to Bernie being on Trump's end of that curve at all. The studies I've seen point to him being equal with Hillary on the Libertarian/Authoritarianism curve.

It's the populist vs establishment curve that Trump and Sanders share, not libertarian vs authoritarian.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

Those poeple have always been here,Nader was a thing for the longest, but this breed that spawned this election cycle threatening to vote for Trump for the LOLZ, cause the system needs to be taken down, or because their favorite candidate doesn't get a shot? Those people need a hard look at themselves and why they don't give a shit for their fellow Americans.

That's absolutely fair. I was more thinking that I generally have zero problem with people who vote third party if they think both candidates from the major parties suck, and Trump being the GOP guy doesn't really change my perspective on that.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Basically.

-Ana says if her feet was held to the fire, she'd vote for Hillary, but she'd hate herself for it.
-Jimmy says he won't vote for Hillary under any circumstances. If that means Trump becomes President he says "Well, then I guess America will just have to get through it."
-Ana starts to rationalize "Maybe he'll do so crappy like GWB that we'll get a wave of Progressives"
-Jimmy says when people get a good look at Trump they'll get sick of him. Claims Hillary is a neoliberal corporatist who'll start another war
-Jimmy claims Trump will probably do some better things than Hillary, because "We won't know what Trump will do, we know what She will do."
-If Trump becomes President "We still have a Congress"
-"If you really think Trump is Hitler why wouldn't you not vote for his opponent?

This is my main problem with some Bernie supporters. Liberal Tea Party indeed.

 

[Macho Madness]

That's absolutely fair. I was more thinking that I generally have zero problem with people who vote third party if they think both candidates from the major parties suck, and Trump being the GOP guy doesn't really change my perspective on that.

Ehh I think people who say Nader cost Gore the 2000 election are pretty dumb. He cost him some votes but the fact is Gore was a terrible campaigner and he ran from Clinton like a dumbass. He should have won Florida handily.

 

[Slayven]

I think that's part of the reasoning though. "I've been voting for other people's interests for too long and it's gotten me nowhere."

I don't agree with it but I understand it a little bit.

I want to ask those people do they only vote for president or do they get out there for their mayor, senators, congressman, governors, etc

 

[User 463088]

The whole Trump thing just makes me sad. It really, really does. I would, literally, vote for anyone to make sure that he is not allowed within 2000 feet of the White House. I just...I don't know how we came to this. I mean, I'm sure deep down, we've always been this....which also makes me sad. Ugh.