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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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J

Jack Remington

Banned
RustyNails said:
Guy who predicted Bern win in michigan has forecasts out for ST2

screen-shot-2016-03-12-at-8-40-58-pm.png
Click to expand...

So this dude's project for a computer science class spits out a correct Michigan projection, but gets lots of other stuff completely wrong. Now he thinks people want to hear him ramble on for paragraphs and paragraphs about how Bernie might win, but Hillary might win also.

Fuck Tyler.
 
R

royalan

Member
Based on these polls, I'm just going to assume that this will be a replay of last week.

Hillary will win some states, Bernie will win some states. Hillary will net more delegates, making her lead even more unassailable. Bernie will continue to push the false narrative that because he's "won some states" that his candidacy is somehow still viable, all while sending notes to superdelegates that read "I'm sorry about what I said, pls consider switching to me thx <3<3<3"
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
JABEE said:
The big long-term solution is to steer your party message away from appeasing southern white voters. I don't know how that would work though.
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Yeah, it's hard to push for fiscal conservatism without the dog whistles because you can't remove the racial aspect of it from the equation. Cutting back on govt programs inherently punishes minority groups more than whites. Kinda tricky for the GOP going forward.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Basileus777 said:
Someone please poll Missouri.
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There's like one crappy poll in the Huffpost average. Honestly I wouldn't be spending any money on any of this crap if I were a news outlet. It's irrelevant to the message I need to sell, which is that THINGS ARE CLOSE!
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
royalan said:
Based on these polls, I'm just going to assume that this will be a replay of last week.

Hillary will win some states, Bernie will win some states. Hillary will net more delegates, making her lead even more unassailable. Bernie will continue to push the false narrative that because he's "won some states" that his candidacy is somehow still viable, all while sending notes to superdelegates that read "I'm sorry about what I said, pls consider switching to me thx <3<3<3"
Click to expand...
You omit the part where more folks flush their money down the toilet of futility.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
Fiscal conservatism is a joke. People loooove saying they are fiscally conservative so they can feel special and above the two parties. For the last 30 years, fiscal conservatism has meant tax cuts for millionaires, ballooning military budgets and costly incursions into foreign lands, and cuts to federal services and programs that ameliorate the crushing pressure on the poor.
Sorry for my outburst, both sides are the same, the increase in military spending paid for itself with the collapse of the soviet union, etc etc
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Retromelon said:
Fiscal conservatism is a joke. People loooove saying they are fiscally conservative so they can feel special and above the two parties. For the last 30 years, fiscal conservatism has meant tax cuts for millionaires, ballooning military budgets and costly incursions into foreign lands, and cuts to federal services and programs that ameliorate the crushing pressure on the poor.
Sorry for my outburst, both sides are the same, the increase in military spending paid for itself with the collapse of the soviet union, etc etc
Click to expand...

It's amazing what Reagan did to people. Made them blind.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
OH. The extra #BernieOrBust burst today is as a result of this article on TheGuardian: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ters-consider-donald-trump-no-hillary-clinton

The reaction I've seen is "Voting for the lesser of two evils has gotten us nowhere"

A male medical emergency technician, 36, from Chicago, said he had watched the devastation wrought on areas of the city by job losses that in his view had been caused by free trade. &#8220;Donald Trump is the only candidate besides Bernie Sanders who cares about curtailing Free Trade. This is my only reason for supporting him if he makes if to November and Clinton is the Democratic nominee.&#8221;

Of the respondents who shared their views, 61% said they were motivated by an anti-Hillary feeling &#8211; the remainder were split down the middle between saying they were &#8220;pro-Trump&#8221; or felt equally pro-Trump and anti-Hillary.

A woman, 55, who described herself as a homemaker, said: &#8220;Both Trump and Sanders are non-establishment candidates who are not bought by the special interests that have control over policy and legislation because of their &#8216;bribes&#8217;.&#8221;

One male Sanders fan wrote: &#8220;Trump is an obnoxious vulgar blowhard who says foolish things. However, unlike Clinton &#8211; but like Sanders &#8211; at least he is an outsider who understands that the government and the economy are broken.&#8221;
Click to expand...

However:

&#8220;The data does not indicate any meaningful concern for Clinton that if she wins the Democratic nomination large numbers of Sanders voters would head to Trump,&#8221; said Jeff Horwitt, a senior vice-president with Hart Research.
Click to expand...
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Jack Remington said:
So this dude's project for a computer science class spits out a correct Michigan projection, but gets lots of other stuff completely wrong. Now he thinks people want to hear him ramble on for paragraphs and paragraphs about how Bernie might win, but Hillary might win also.

Fuck Tyler.
Click to expand...

Even Tyler himself started his predictions with the expectation that they would be off and then would become less off as more data came in. Notice the difference in accuracy between his oldest data and his most recent data.

The accuracy of his model depends on accounting for as many variances in data points as possible.

Right or wrong, after his predictions for this Tuesday, his subsequent predictions are likely to be very, VERY accurate.
 
M

Makai

Member
brainchild said:
Even Tyler himself started his predictions with the expectation that they would be off and then would become less off as more data came in. Notice the difference in accuracy between his oldest data and his most recent data.

The accuracy of his model depends on accounting for as many variances in data points as possible.

Right or wrong, after his predictions for this Tuesday, his subsequent predictions are likely to be very, VERY accurate.
Click to expand...
Why do you think this? His model is based on Google searches and whatnot.
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
brainchild said:
Even Tyler himself started his predictions with the expectation that they would be off and then would become less off as more data came in. Notice the difference in accuracy between his oldest data and his most recent data.

The accuracy of his model depends on accounting for as many variances in data points as possible.

Right or wrong, after his predictions for this Tuesday, his subsequent predictions are likely to be very, VERY accurate.
Click to expand...

That, or maybe he's just overfitting.
 
I

Iolo

Member
brainchild said:
Even Tyler himself started his predictions with the expectation that they would be off and then would become less off as more data came in. Notice the difference in accuracy between his oldest data and his most recent data.

The accuracy of his model depends on accounting for as many variances in data points as possible.

Right or wrong, after his predictions for this Tuesday, his subsequent predictions are likely to be very, VERY accurate.
Click to expand...

I bet by July, once he updates his model with more data points, it will be super accurate at predicting past results. We just have to wait for that model to find out how things will turn out.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
brainchild said:
Even Tyler himself started his predictions with the expectation that they would be off and then would become less off as more data came in. Notice the difference in accuracy between his oldest data and his most recent data.

The accuracy of his model depends on accounting for as many variances in data points as possible.

Right or wrong, after his predictions for this Tuesday, his subsequent predictions are likely to be very, VERY accurate.
Click to expand...

Even when he picked the winner, he still wasn't even close to the margin. Not only that but he's been wrong more than he's been right from what I can tell. The guy's not the second coming of Nate or Sam Wang.

Iolo said:
I bet by July, once he updates his model with more data points, it will be super accurate at predicting past results. We just have to wait for that model to find out how things will turn out.
Click to expand...

I could make a model to predict past results, the trick is predicting future results.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I think Cruz takes Illinois from Trump and almost guarantees a contested convention.
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
Hi Poligaf. I have been busy since Tuesday and I need to catch up but I have no time to read the last 90+pages. Any tweet sized summaries of the last days? Is Hillary still going to jail? Are the polls still all wrong?

edit: I also sold all my Trump shares for a nice hefty profit. I don't think I can deal with the rollercoaster anymore lol
 
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