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[thebloo]

So, I was right about the +6. Now all we need is Trump to tweet the "good" news. Come on, do it.

 

[Basileus777]

Also, just putting this out there...

The PPP poll assumes that there will be a 2% increase in the percentage of Latino voters that make up the electorate. Trump is running close to 10 points behind McCain among Hispanic voters. She's also currently leading among women, a group McCain won outright in 2008.

We are, I think, one cycle away from Texas being purple enough to consider swinging it. And that should terrify the GOP

Eh, a candidate being down 8 nationally and losing college educated voters like Trump is not something you can expect to be the norm. Texas still seems like a decade away from being more than "somewhat close in wave elections" territory for the Dems.

 

[RustyNails]

Hillary on the radar in TX should set off alarm bells in GOP HQ. This is probably how Democrats felt during Walter Mondale's campaign in 84

 

[SJurgenson]

Are you nuts? Why would anyone want that? If your comedy host cant make good of this freaking election season, he doesnt deserve to be anywhere near a tv show. Stewart/Colbert kept people interested in a boring ass 2012 election and this guy cant do anything with the insane material dump of this year.

We're comparing him to Trevor Noah. Larry Wilmore had an unknown and unproven show fail to keep people interested in the election. Trevor Noah has a well-known and rock-solid show, and has all but sunk it. There was a thread claiming 'Trevor Noah is doing an absolutely excellent job with the Daily Show' last week, and most of the replies were on the order of 'yeah, no.'

Larry Wilmore could at least keep it afloat. Trevor Noah is baling water into the ship.

To have a once in a lifetime election season, and have the Daily Show failing at entertaining is an amazing accomplishment that should be studied by scientists.

 

[User1608]

I really wish Texas could turn blue this year. It would be so wonderful to see the reactions. My god it would make me har-happy!

 

[jbug617]

Trump and the debates are a perfect storm.

Either he backs out, loses the remaining support he has while also looking more weak and pathetic than ever before ... or he goes to them and gets clowned on stage by a woman, proving he's a political and policy simpleton and simply not ready for the job, making him look more weak and pathetic than ever before.

You're his campaign manager and you have no scruples, you honestly believe in him and think the world would be a better place if he's elected. What do you tell him to do?

I think Trump will ignore some questions and have his talking points ready attacking the media and Hillary.

 

[User 463088]

Eh, a candidate being down 8 nationally and losing college educated voters like Trump is not something you can expect to be the norm. Texas still seems like a decade away from being more than "somewhat close in wave elections" territory for the Dems.

Like PPP said, Trump is only ahead because of voters over the age of 65. While that pool of voters is reliable, it's not sustainable. They're, literally, dying off. Demographic shifts alone would make Texas swingy by 2024. If Hillary invested in a statewide operation for registration and mobilization, there's a damn good chance you force the GOP to play prevent defense in 2020.

 

[phisheep]

Trump and the debates are a perfect storm.

Either he backs out, loses the remaining support he has while also looking more weak and pathetic than ever before ... or he goes to them and gets clowned on stage by a woman, proving he's a political and policy simpleton and simply not ready for the job, making him look more weak and pathetic than ever before.

You're his campaign manager and you have no scruples, you honestly believe in him and think the world would be a better place if he's elected. What do you tell him to do?

Doesn't matter. He won't listen to a word I say anyway.

 

[PantherLotus]

(lol adam)

Yes obviously the answer is 'get him any prep he's willing to do at all, get him some attack lines, and maybe Hillary does something stupid on stage.'

That's it. That's your plan.

 

[Emarv]

Here are the winners of the Texas poll guess!

+6 Trump


Well, let's see if he can make Utah competitive?

Trump +6 in TX, Trump retweets it like it's a good thing.

Like others have said, remember that Hispanic numbers are always low, which could me closer to +4 or +5 without any real money or effort.

Feeling a little proud of my shitty state.

 

[Teggy]

I read an article this morning about how they need to find the right person to sub in for Trump during debates because that person is going to have to be willing to bring up Monica Lewinski and other Bill stuff and make Hillary uncomfortable.

 

[TheFatOne]

So looks like Ailes is going to be helping Trumps campaign for the debates, and possibly more than that. He has to know this isn't a good look with woman right?

 

[Box of Kittens]

She should spend money in GA and AZ, not TX. Texas is very expensive and very big, and would take a huge effort to move the needle where she would ultimately lose. I'd rather she shore up some other states first.

And IN. Please?

 

[Grief.exe]

Like PPP said, Trump is only ahead because of voters over the age of 65. While that pool of voters is reliable, it's not sustainable. They're, literally, dying off. Demographic shifts alone would make Texas swingy by 2024. If Hillary invested in a statewide operation for registration and mobilization, there's a damn good chance you force the GOP to play prevent defense in 2020.

Add in the collapse of voter ID laws.

 

[jevity]

Trump and the debates are a perfect storm.

Either he backs out, loses the remaining support he has while also looking more weak and pathetic than ever before ... or he goes to them and gets clowned on stage by a woman, proving he's a political and policy simpleton and simply not ready for the job, making him look more weak and pathetic than ever before.

You're his campaign manager and you have no scruples, you honestly believe in him and think the world would be a better place if he's elected. What do you tell him to do?

I would tell him to do all 3 debates. No doubt. His whole narrative could implode almost overnight if he refuses. Someone called Trump " The weak man's idea of a Strong man", and his base NEEDS a stready flow of his bluster,bravado and bloviating to keep energized. Even if he violently craters during the debates, and involuntarily creates a tsunami of normally campaign killing soundbites, the damage could still be somewhat managable, and perhaps even add yet another layer and twist to the "big word intellectuals against the common (sense) man" narrative. So he could survive the debates relatively unscathed in the eyes of the CORE of his base, and maybe only sustain minor wounds in the minds of his larger base. As far the new voters that he NEEDS to avoid getting swept away in a landslide defeat ? Not a chance. He has already reached the ceiling among the Truthiness and Trumpyness demographics, to the groups of undecided critically discerning voters the debates will leave him mortally wounded and most likely dead before november.

 

[Touchdown]

Hillary needs to get some more ad money to Texas! I will be SHOOK if Texas goes blue. #ILivedThroughThe2016UnitedStatesElectionProcess

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Darth is on the run of his life about Trump's first classified briefing:
https://twitter.com/darth

 

[GoldenEye 007]

Hillary needs to get some more ad money to Texas! I will be SHOOK if Texas goes blue. #ILivedThroughThe2016UnitedStatesElectionProcess

Or at the very least, get it to "too close to call."

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Here are the winners of the Texas poll guess!






Like others have said, remember that Hispanic numbers are always low, which could me closer to +4 or +5 without any real money or effort.

 

[Fragamemnon]

I don't think Trump will crater the debates to be honest.

Keep in mind the historically low expectations he'll have-"he didn't call her a bitch to her face! What a win for the Don!" for the first debate. Some Republicans who were planning on maybe voting 3rd party might or not voting for President at all might be reassured by that.

If he descends into incoherence and does something really stupid, it only reinforces what everyone out there already believes about him. Trump certainly has a ceiling at this point he can't break through, but he also has a floor and has just about hit it.

 

[jevity]

Of course Trump's campaign manager doesn't have any scruples.

He converted them to rubles last week.

8/10

Would have been a solid 10 if you had made scruples and rubles rhyme

 

[Basileus777]

Like PPP said, Trump is only ahead because of voters over the age of 65. While that pool of voters is reliable, it's not sustainable. They're, literally, dying off. Demographic shifts alone would make Texas swingy by 2024. If Hillary invested in a statewide operation for registration and mobilization, there's a damn good chance you force the GOP to play prevent defense in 2020.

2020 is way too optimistic unless you think Hillary is going to cruise to another blowout victory in 4 years. Texas is likelier to be closer this year than in the next election.

 

[Iolo]

I read an article this morning about how they need to find the right person to sub in for Trump during debates because that person is going to have to be willing to bring up Monica Lewinski and other Bill stuff and make Hillary uncomfortable.

Probably this article, which was pretty good. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/hillary-clinton-prepare-trump-debate-lewinsky-227033

 

[Felix Lighter]

I kind of think money in Texas is a waste. I don't think Trump will waste anything to defend it because if Texas needs defending, he loses anyway and I don't think she can win it with money. I think it would require some more huge gaffes and scandals on the Trump side. He just has to assume it's safe enough and pretend the old battleground states are still in play.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Probably this article, which was pretty good. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/hillary-clinton-prepare-trump-debate-lewinsky-227033

I was telling a friend, they really need to make it like Darryl Hammond or something. You can't just put a regular person there and expect to really prepare. His persona is 80% of his technique.

 

[Emarv]

I kind of think money in Texas is a waste. I don't think Trump will waste anything to defend it because if Texas needs defending, he loses anyway. He just has to assume it's safe enough and pretend the old battleground states are still in play.

As much as I agree that she shouldn't spend money, there's no way Trump can pretend he's losing and just ignore it like a normal politician. Dude has no poker face.

 

[Grief.exe]

Would be nice to get local infrastructure and contacts in Texas for an outside chance in 2020 and a swing states in 2024.

 

[Basileus777]

I kind of think money in Texas is a waste. I don't think Trump will waste anything to defend it because if Texas needs defending, he loses anyway and I don't think she can win it with money. I think it would require some more huge gaffes and scandals on the Trump side. He just has to assume it's safe enough and pretend the old battleground states are still in play.

Trump isn't spending money anyway, there's no point is making him play defense in Texas. The only thing worth spending money on in Texas is for house races.

 

[Emarv]

Of course Roger Ailes is advising Trump. Like, that's not a surprise at all. What a joke.

Spoiler

Gotta get the team ready for the inevitable launch of TrumpTV

 

[User 463088]

2020 is way too optimistic unless you think Hillary is going to cruise to another blowout victory in 4 years. Texas is likelier to be closer this year than in the next election.

Which is why you push to solidify your advantages. I don;'t think she needs to drop a ton of money on ads and the like in Texas. That's a waste of money, when Georgia and Arizona are far easier to sway, I think. What you do need to do, though, is massive voter mobilization. I'm talking get every DREAMER who signed up to do that GOTV thing that's in Texas to run registration drive after registration drive. You send Bill and Michele to Texas at least once. You go ahead and get a small GOTV team in some of your best areas, and, for the love of god, you add them to your phone banking network.

The most important thing, though, is GOTV and registration. Get these people registered as Democrats. Because, if I'm registering and turning out a voter this cycle, they've now established a pattern of voting. I'm going to have their information for 2020 and 2024. I own that vote now, and it forces the GOP to wrestle it away from me.

 

[Wilsongt]

Aetna leaving the marketplace. Are their any real heath insurance providers left? Obamacare falling apart and Obama leaving office just as it implodeds.

Sad! Fraud! Failure! Repeal!

 

[nature boy]

Fuck why did Hassan have a brainfart.

WHY.

 

[Emarv]

Which is why you push to solidify your advantages. I don;'t think she needs to drop a ton of money on ads and the like in Texas. That's a waste of money, when Georgia and Arizona are far easier to sway, I think. What you do need to do, though, is massive voter mobilization. I'm talking get every DREAMER who signed up to do that GOTV thing that's in Texas to run registration drive after registration drive. You send Bill and Michele to Texas at least once. You go ahead and get a small GOTV team in some of your best areas, and, for the love of god, you add them to your phone banking network.

The most important thing, though, is GOTV and registration. Get these people registered as Democrats. Because, if I'm registering and turning out a voter this cycle, they've now established a pattern of voting. I'm going to have their information for 2020 and 2024. I own that vote now, and it forces the GOP to wrestle it away from me.

I think this is right. It's about registration. Dems may never have a better candidate to mobilize young Hispanics. Press the advantage now. Don't commit to winning the state now, but start laying the foundation for what she'll definitely need come 2020.

 

[Zeke]

Which is why you push to solidify your advantages. I don;'t think she needs to drop a ton of money on ads and the like in Texas. That's a waste of money, when Georgia and Arizona are far easier to sway, I think. What you do need to do, though, is massive voter mobilization. I'm talking get every DREAMER who signed up to do that GOTV thing that's in Texas to run registration drive after registration drive. You send Bill and Michele to Texas at least once. You go ahead and get a small GOTV team in some of your best areas, and, for the love of god, you add them to your phone banking network.

The most important thing, though, is GOTV and registration. Get these people registered as Democrats. Because, if I'm registering and turning out a voter this cycle, they've now established a pattern of voting. I'm going to have their information for 2020 and 2024. I own that vote now, and it forces the GOP to wrestle it away from me.

God I want dems to do this so bad!

 

[Basileus777]

Which is why you push to solidify your advantages. I don;'t think she needs to drop a ton of money on ads and the like in Texas. That's a waste of money, when Georgia and Arizona are far easier to sway, I think. What you do need to do, though, is massive voter mobilization. I'm talking get every DREAMER who signed up to do that GOTV thing that's in Texas to run registration drive after registration drive. You send Bill and Michele to Texas at least once. You go ahead and get a small GOTV team in some of your best areas, and, for the love of god, you add them to your phone banking network.

The most important thing, though, is GOTV and registration. Get these people registered as Democrats. Because, if I'm registering and turning out a voter this cycle, they've now established a pattern of voting. I'm going to have their information for 2020 and 2024. I own that vote now, and it forces the GOP to wrestle it away from me.

Yeah, this is a smart way to play it. I still think a purple Texas is far off, but these sorts of voter registration and infrastructural moves pay off for more than just short term Presidential hopes.

 

[Wilsongt]

NC going all in!!

https://thinkprogress.org/chutzpah-9503e5d93d51#.r0cxryuef

Paul Clement is one of the best lawyers in the nation. A former Solicitor General of the United States, Clement has spent much of the Obama administration transforming himself into a kind of Solicitor General of the Republican Party. Clement has argued cases seeking to repeal the Affordable Care Act, preserve anti-gay marriage discrimination, defend harsh policies targeting immigrants, and preserve other voter suppression laws. His presence on a case is often a clear sign that the nation’s conservative establishment views it as a very high priority.


He reportedly charges as much as $1,350 an hour for his services, although he’s been known to offer his government clients a bargain basement discount price of only $520 per hour!

 

[Emarv]

Messsss

We continue to find that Trump voters overwhelmingly buy into his preemptive claims about the election being rigged. Just 19% of Trump voters grant that if Clinton wins the election it will be because she got more votes, while 71% say that it will just be because the election was rigged. More specifically 40% of Trump voters think that ACORN, which hasn't existed in years, will steal the election for Clinton to only 20% who don't think it will, and only 20% who are unsure.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/trump-leads-by-only-6-in-texas.html

 

[RastaMentality]

The Harris county dems here in Houston don't have any voter registrations scheduled this or next month because they're worthless.

 

[jevity]

Stupid question : Given that this election is so absurdly different, would it be a foolish strategy to target the seniors in Texas with a heavy bombardement of adds that SOLELY focus on the future of their grand children ? History reveals that this is a reliably Republican demographic, but maybe history is changing enough right now to create a snowball effect, that could push them the last final steps towards the Dems ? ?

 

[jevity]

Fuck why did Hassan have a brainfart.

WHY.

what happened ?

 

[Grief.exe]

Trump real complacent with sexual harassment

 

[BlastProcessing]

@SopanDeb
Roger Ailes, forced out from Fox because of a massive sexual hararssment scandal, will advise Trump ahead of debates

Shocking development. I wonder if Trump will bring on Mark Foley as well...

 

[nature boy]

what happened ?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/maggie-hassan-clinton-trustworthy-227054

New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan skirted multiple opportunities to say outright whether she considers Hillary Clinton honest and trustworthy — attributes that have long dogged the Democratic presidential nominee in state and national polls even as she extends her advantage over Donald Trump.

Asked in an interview aired Tuesday on CNN whether Clinton is "honest and trustworthy," Hassan first replied, "I support Hillary Clinton for the presidency because her experience and record demonstrate she's qualified to hold the job."

Pressed on whether she sees the former secretary of state as honest, the governor, facing a tough Senate race against incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte, commented onClinton's "critical, critical plan among others for making college more affordable."

"But do you think she's trustworthy?" CNN's Manu Raju inquired, to which Hassan responded, "I think that she has demonstrated a commitment always to something beyond herself, bigger than herself."

CNN said Hassan's campaign later reached out to clarify that the governor does see Clinton as honest.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Don't forget that Democrats can certainly make gains downballot. Texas is gerrymandered, but if the state is moving in one direction, that gerrymander will start to crack.

GA and AZ are better investments, but Clinton is swimming in cash and Battleground Texas was a fundraising juggernaut (they just picked like, the worst possible year to make a splash). Making a token investment there might not be a bad idea, especially if they're taking states like PA, CO and VA off the board. The way you make states competitive is by actually competing. We might not be talking about a purple Georgia if Obama hasn't laid that foundation in 2008.

 

[User 463088]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/maggie-hassan-clinton-trustworthy-227054

Eh, that's not that bad...especially when a majority of voters in almost every state doesn't see Hillary as honest and trustworthy. It's not a Senate candidate's responsibility to answer that question, although she should have come up with something a bit better. But that's a self-preservation answer, also known as politics. Sitting here, I'd rather her unequivocally say yes, but I can certainly understand hedging on that issue.

In the polls only model, Hillary now has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump has of winning Florida, Ohio or North Carolina.

 

[rSpooky]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/maggie-hassan-clinton-trustworthy-227054

Sounds like she was worried to give a soundbite saying she thinks Clinton is trustworthy and have it used against her. Which is unfortunate

 

[Plinko]

Trump real complacent with sexual harassment

"All of a sudden" they're saying mean things about him? How about because he's a terrible person?

Stupid question : Given that this election is so absurdly different, would it be a foolish strategy to target the seniors in Texas with a heavy bombardement of adds that SOLELY focus on the future of their grand children ? History reveals that this is a reliably Republican demographic, but maybe history is changing enough right now to create a snowball effect, that could push them the last final steps towards the Dems ? ?

Yes. I used to live in a far-right area of Michigan that was dominated by old voters. They would vote down school millages, library millages, etc--marketing about their grandkids did nothing. They don't care.

 

[The Lamonster]

@SopanDeb
Roger Ailes, forced out from Fox because of a massive sexual hararssment scandal, will advise Trump ahead of debates

Shocking development. I wonder if Trump will bring on Mark Foley as well...

The news here is that Trump is actually planning to debate!

 

[Holmes]

She should spend money in GA and AZ, not TX. Texas is very expensive and very big, and would take a huge effort to move the needle where she would ultimately lose. I'd rather she shore up some other states first.

Exactly. Texas has a lot of media markets, and the ones that are interesting to Democrats are very expensive. Not only that, setting up a campaign infrastructure in the important areas of the state would also be expensive because you would need a lot of offices and staff to cover all the ground. It would probably be cheaper to run ads, open offices and establish campaign infrastructure in GA and AZ combined than just TX.

 

[nature boy]

Eh, that's not that bad...especially when a majority of voters in almost every state doesn't see Hillary as honest and trustworthy. It's not a Senate candidate's responsibility to answer that question, although she should have come up with something a bit better. But that's a self-preservation answer, also known as politics. Sitting here, I'd rather her unequivocally say yes, but I can certainly understand hedging on that issue.

In the polls only model, Hillary now has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump has of winning Florida, Ohio or North Carolina.

It's bad because it gives ammunition to the "trust case". While I agree she's not going to convince a massive amount of people with 80 days to the election, it's also stupid for a Democratic to dodge the question. Was she really going to lose votes by saying "yes, look at her 40 years in the public spotlight"?

And on a national news network. It's an own goal. Not a big one, but an unnecessary one.