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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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N

nature boy

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Oh my days.

@samsteinhp

Monmouth Poll of Florida likely voters

Clinton 48
Trump 39
Click to expand...

14jGh15Slt6QOk.gif
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
My guess is they accurately sampled Hispanic voters in this one.
 
N

newshinycd

Member
adam387 said:
This is basically the point I'm trying (probably not successfully) to argue. I don't fault Obama for not moving on Georgia in 2008 until way too late, simply because the election didn't break his way as early as it is for Hillary.

Something I'd add to what you were saying...publicly investing in a state has narrative benefit. We see a lot of posters in OT threads talk about how they're in Georgia and, by god, their vote might matter this time. It's a mindshare argument. Even if you're not uber competitive, acting like you are, investing in GOTV and registrations (which helps downballot candidates) is a smart investment. A small, targeted ad buy could help with that too. It also gives you the chance to own a media cycle. It's a talking point, if nothing else.

Like a few networks may pick up on the PPP poll. To make sure they do, announce you're investing in the state. Get a surrogate to go on the record saying you're making a play for it. It helps raise money, and it helps to cement the idea that your map is expanding while your opponent is crashing and burning.
Click to expand...

Democrats need to do a huge GOTV push in Cobb and Gwinnett. I think if they can flip those two counties, there is a very good chance that Hillary wins Georgia.
 
N

nature boy

Member
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_081616.asp


...


Among self-identified Democrats, 92% support Clinton while 4% choose Trump and just 3% back a third party candidate. Trump has less support among his own party base, with 79% of Republicans who back their nominee, compared to 12% who support Clinton and 5% who back another candidate. Clinton leads Trump among independents by 47% to 30%, with 11% supporting Johnson and 2% backing Stein.

Clinton has an overwhelming lead among Hispanic, black and Asian voters who make up about one-third of the electorate, garnering 69% of this group’s vote to 19% for Trump. Trump leads among white voters by 51% to 37%, but there is a significant gender split. Among white men, Trump has a 64% to 24% advantage. Among white women, Clinton leads by 49% to 39%. There is no difference by educational attainment, with Trump ahead among white voters without a college degree (51% to 39%) as well as white college graduates (50% to 36%).

Clinton’s 50 point lead among non-white voters is similar to Barack Obama’s advantage over Mitt Romney with this group four years ago (49 points according to the 2012 Florida exit poll). Trump’s 14 point lead among white voters is smaller than Romney’s 24 point win with this group. This difference is due mainly to a widening gender gap. Trump is doing somewhat better than Romney did among white men (+40 points compared to +32), but much worse among white women (-10 points compared to +17).

“The gender split among white voters in Florida is huge. Men are drawn to Trump’s message while women are not. These offsetting factors give Clinton the edge,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

...
Click to expand...
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
14% Black
17% Hispanic
Click to expand...

Yep, properly weighted. Other FL polls recently haven't been like this, so that might be one of the differences.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
whyamihere said:
I literally gasped.
Click to expand...
Same here. My coworkers were around and immediately asked what was wrong. I had to make-up a bullshit answer since I don't talk politics at work.

Holy shit.

I mean, we're looking at a REALLY early Election Night if these numbers are anywhere remotely close.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
PBY said:
This election is so weird.


I don't even know if Fox News is behind Trump at this point behind the few cult leaders like Hannity. Dont think theres gonna be any meltdowns this year ala 2012.
Click to expand...

No there are going to be a ton of meltdowns. Hanity has been building up to one. He's going to pop off on those who didn't support Trump. They have for 20+ years vilified the Clintons. There are going to be major meltdowns from the right come election day. You can bet one it.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The American white nationalist movement probably will need to nominate someone who is less hostile to women next time if they want a chance at this.

Attacking Muslims or black people or Jews won't lose too many possible Republican votes. Attacking women will lose a lot of possible Republican votes. Just dumb strategy if you want to get elected.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
They are literally going to go from announcing polls closing on the East coast, to a commercial break, to calling the election for Hillary. We're going to need some really creative drinking games if we actually want to get rekt.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
As far as debate prep, they should get Colbert to do it. He's pretended to be a tea party loon for years, and famously has no qualms with saying and doing things that will make people uncomfortable. He'd be willing to go hard in a mock debate.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
My election night THANG is going to the cinema to catch a movie or two as polls close, then checking the results afterwards. Sounds like I can catch an early movie and a single bill to boot.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

35% Republican
35% Independent
30% Democrat

47% Male
53% Female

THE SAMPLE Is 5% more Republican! And she's winning.
Also, in 2012, there was a +10 gender gap....this has it +6

This electorate is more Republican and more male than 2012....and she's still fucking winning.

OMG. I can't even.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
1. I came for Florida polling.

2. https://newrepublic.com/article/136046/conservatives-laughable-effort-blame-liberals-trump

3. You all need to read that twice. Such a good, sober, honest accounting of this nonsense idea that smug liberal attacks on Romney are the reason we have Trump as a GOP nominee. What a fantastic article.

Choice sections:

The recriminations of the GOP’s across-the-board losses in 2012 began before the winners knew they’d won. In an MSNBC appearance on election day, GOP strategist Steve Schmidt admitted that the Republicans’ quadrennial strategy of mobilizing whites had run its course and that refusing to alter it going forward would lead to the destruction of his party.

“Even if Mitt Romney is able to win this election tonight,” Schmitt said, “this will be the last election that a Republican can possibly win as a national candidate with these type of numbers [in the] Latino community with women voters and it’s really going to lead to some important moments of soul searching I think in the Republican Party if we’re to be a national party.”

[snip]

Schmidt’s concern was demographic—eventually there wouldn’t be enough white voters for Republicans to court. But the corollary of his argument was obvious: Finding more and more white voters to mobilize would ultimately require the party to make more overt appeals to white identity.
Click to expand...


If the Romney campaign still seems like an imperfect harbinger of Trumpism, recall that Romney ran only four years after John McCain’s campaign allowed Sarah Palin to tour the country drawing bright lines between “real America” and Obama’s America, and accusing Obama of “palling around with terrorists.” It wasn’t enough to win Republicans the election but was enough to make Palin the celebrity-leader of the country’s white ethno-nationalists.

Her antics laid a predicate for interpreting what we’d ultimately hear from Romney and Representative Paul Ryan—about makers and takers, dependent Americans who want free stuff—as heavily raced rhetoric that would ultimately leave the GOP in hoc to a base that wasn’t particularly interested in corporate-friendly economic policy or merely-sublimated appeals to ethnic resentment. That interpretation was correct at the time, and is no less correct now that we know just how ugly the payoff of that hate debt turned out to be.

Conservatives say liberals cried wolf, and thus share culpability for the fact that few Republican voters believe Trump is the lupine threat his critics know he is. But the GOP is a continuous entity. It’s been evolving steadily into the creature it is today for many years. Liberals weren’t crying wolf at earlier stages of that evolution. We were warning conservatives that the pressures they were subjecting the GOP to would select for fangs, and a tendency to turn on its enablers.
Click to expand...
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Oh my days.

@samsteinhp

Monmouth Poll of Florida likely voters

Clinton 48
Trump 39
Click to expand...

These numbers cannot be real. They just can't be. I mean I just spit my drink out of my mouth and onto my computer screen and now the guy next to me is giving me a look. If this is real, and holds, election day is going to be a party.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
are you really planning for a movie 3 months in advance?
Click to expand...

We go to the movies at least once a week. Stepping away from the news coverage for a few hours is a nice thing to do on election night. If I remember right, we've done it for the last three major elections (midterms and presidential). It's a way of taking my mind off stuff I can't really control until we have a great idea of the results, if not the actual result.

The cinema is usually deserted too, which is always nice.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
adam387 said:
DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

35% Republican
35% Independent
30% Democrat

47% Male
53% Female

THE SAMPLE Is 5% more Republican! And she's winning.
Also, in 2012, there was a +10 gender gap....this has it +6

This electorate is more Republican and more male than 2012....and she's still fucking winning.

OMG. I can't even.
Click to expand...

Is that the Monmouth poll? Because there's no way in hell that reflects what we'll see in November. Lead should probably be double digits going off those demographics.
 
Grizzlyjin

Grizzlyjin

Supersonic, idiotic, disconnecting, not respecting, who would really ever wanna go and top that
Crisco said:
They are literally going to go from announcing polls closing on the East coast, to a commercial break, to calling the election for Hillary. We're going to need some really creative drinking games if we actually want to get rekt.
Click to expand...

Take a shot everytime you see someone on Twitter used the term "rigged election." I'm trying to blackout with my crack out. I'll make sure someone wakes me for Hillary's momebt though.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
The really smart Stephen Wolf things that Hillary would need to win the popular vote by 7-8% to win back the House. Lots more at the link.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...-vote-margin-to-take-back-the-House-this-fall

Distribution_of_2012_Districts_by_Presidential_PVI.png


So when it comes down to it, we really can’t say with much precision what popular vote margin Democrats need to win the House in today’s environment, but 7 to 8 percent seems reasonable. What we can say with confidence is that, if 2016 is anything like the polarized elections of 2012 and 2014, Democrats could need a true wave election like 2006 or 2008 for a majority. That margin could be difficult, but Donald Trump just might make it possible.
Click to expand...

And a few Dem congressmen have started to tweet out this article with this map.

imrs.php


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ajority/?postshare=9321471365381828&tid=ss_tw

I still don't think a Democratic House majority is the likely outcome on Nov. 8. Republicans have to rely on the fact that so many of the congressional line redraws created districts where people are Republicans and are going to vote Republican — even if Trump is leading the ticket.

But if you trust Blizzard's calculations — and I do — it suggests that if the bottom drops out on Trump, which appears to be happening as I type, there are a good number of Republican-held House districts that could suddenly collapse with him.

All of which means that if Republicans think they have hit rock bottom, they may need to wait only a few months to find an even lower floor.
Click to expand...
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Nazgul_Hunter said:
Later today:

"Did you hear? It's unbelievable. Crooked Hillary Clinton is being prepared for her debate - and she needs a lot of preparation, believe me, a lot - she's being prepared for the debates by Roger Ailes." - Donald Trump
Click to expand...
Folks, do you believe this? Many people are saying Crooked Hillary is in troubled for her fraudulent Clinton U. It's just terrible. It's terrible. Of course the biased media isn't talking about it but many people are and there's something going on there. And then with the gold star families. They say she has no respect of gold star families people. It's unbelievable. It really is.

=========================

Honestly, that Florida poll is great news for Murphy. Hoping he can ride this out. Seems entirely possible at this point.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Megan McArdle has a tweetstorm (along with an article I think) right now about the problems Obamacare is facing w/ providers pulling out.

She thinks that if the Dems don't get it fixed it's going to be a huge issue for them in 2020, and I don't think she's wrong. We need a tidal wave (and a dead fillibuster) to get changes in there pronto.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Kusagari said:
Is that the Monmouth poll? Because there's no way in hell that reflects what we'll see in November. Lead should probably be double digits going off those demographics.
Click to expand...

Ya, that's from Monmouth. Which, maybe that's what the electorate does look like this year, which is great...since, you know, we're winning!
 
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