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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.

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sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
If the alternatives are between 24 million people losing access to healthcare vs a bad look for GOP governing skills and setback of the republican agenda there is clearly a favored scenario. I would rather this not pass even if it meant a few more Rs keeping their seats in the midterm.

It's easy to say "I hope it passes and there is a bloodbath at midterms" if you have a some relative amount of privilege.
 
K

KingK

Member
sc0la said:
If the alternatives are between 24 million people losing access to healthcare vs a bad look for GOP governing skills and setback of the republican agenda there is clearly a favored scenario. I would rather this not pass even if it meant a few more Rs keeping their seats in the midterm.

It's easy to say "I hope it passes and there is a bloodbath at midterms" if you have a some relative amount of privilege.
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Yeah, my family will all probably lose our health insurance. We're on the exchanges with subsidies being the only way any of us can afford it, and my mom has a pre-existing condition.

There's plenty of other ammo to use against republicans without hoping for this monstrous bill to pass. I'm still about 50/50 on its chances though.
 
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Poodlestrike

Banned
sc0la said:
If the alternatives are between 24 million people losing access to healthcare vs a bad look for GOP governing skills and setback of the republican agenda there is clearly a favored scenario. I would rather this not pass even if it meant a few more Rs keeping their seats in the midterm.

It's easy to say "I hope it passes and there is a bloodbath at midterms" if you have a some relative amount of privilege.
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Agreed. Ideal scenario here is it passes the house, gets revised in the Senate, then dies in the House because literally nothing that can pass the Senate will get past the HFC. That way, no terrible legislation gets passed, but we get basically the entire GOP on the record in favor of terrible legislation, and Republican leadership looks like the failures they are.
 
T

Tommy DJ

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
I think people reading random tweets from random people gives them a roller coaster of emotions because they're getting random bits of scattered stories told second hand, sometimes in passing or being overheard.

Looking at just these factors

- The country's largest lobby, AARP, is very much opposed to this law, and is threatening to shame every single person who votes for it
- The Heritage Foundation, the Conservatives "go to" think tank, is opposed to the bill and is threatening to score votes for the bill against people (and they take these scores seriously)
- The Koch brothers, the best known and one of the largest GOP donors is against it and is actively promising PAC support to anyone who votes against this
- Paul Ryan has stopped saying it's going to pass and has instead moved onto "it's going to be voted on" which means he's done
- The White House has completely given up. Trump is bored (and made that well known) and is already blaming people for the bill failing
- The yes/nos have only changed +/- a couple of votes over the last 24 hours, with it trending towards nos more. This isn't a good sign for a healthy bill that's about to pass

If this was any other bill, all those factors would mean it never even saw a vote, let alone passed.
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Seriously.

I mean, there's a non zero chance that it passes through the house and senate. But are the Republicans really going to break and go against the AARP, Heritage Foundation and the Koch Brothers? Very, very unlikely!

When literally no one likes your bill from anything left leaning to the goddamn Heritage Foundation, who has straight up described the bill as a "policy, process and political disaster", I think you might have to stand back and ask yourself why the hell am I voting for this piece of shit?

This isn't a standard ______ fall in line situation because the Republicans are creating policy here and the policy they just created is so reprehensible in every single way that some of the most powerful conservative entities are outright opposed to it.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
http://www.vox.com/2017/3/24/150365...t=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

The Senate is the key
Whatever the truth of the matter, despite today's drama in the House of Representatives it's the senate that holds the key to the future of American health care policy.

Even if repeal passes the House today, it can't become law without the senate's say-so. And even if repeal fails today and the Trump administration decides to break off talks, the issue will remain alive in the senate and any forward progress toward repeal there would surely revive senate interest.

McConnell is a much lower-key figure than Ryan or Trump, and someone who does far less to court either positive or negative media attention. But the Senate is traditionally where legislative agendas live or die, and 2017 is no different on that score. Whether Obamacare repeal ultimately happens hinges much more on whether the GOP's shrewd leader does or does not have a plan here than on what plays out today under the bright lights in the House.
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Screen_Shot_2017_03_24_at_6.04.25_AM.png
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balladofwindfishes

Member
Still pushing the asinine idea there's a secret McConnell plan somewhere nobody has heard of or hinted at but is apparently part of some kind of master plan that hundreds of members of the GOP know about, but hasn't leaked?
 
smokeymicpot

smokeymicpot

Beat EviLore at pool.
Schiff is having a conference in a few and is the health care bill vote on for today? Stuck in a meeting so really can't follow like I tend to do.
 
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Blader

Member
If the Senate was going to dump the House bill in favor of something McConnell has been drafting secretly for weeks, then why all the handwringing in passing the House bill? Why are Trump and Ryan pushing so hard, and so publicly, for a bill that is going to be dropped almost immediately? And if the calculus is that the HFC will fold on whatever bill the Senate sends back to them, then why are they working so hard to win over the HFC now?

This seems like a lot of political theater for little to no gain, and a lot of hit taken to a lot of people's approval ratings.


edit: also, if senators like Cotton are lamenting publicly about how quickly the House is moving on their bill and moving it through committees, why would so many Senate Rs quickly acquiesce to voting for a bill that McConnell, by virtue of drafting in secret, wouldn't have gone through any committee yet?

I don't know who Ben Wikler is but it kinda sounds like he doesn't know what he's talking about. At least based on everything that we've seen and heard over the last two weeks.
 
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Pandora012

Member
smokeymicpot said:
Schiff is having a conference in a few and is the health care bill vote on for today? Stuck in a meeting so really can't follow like I tend to do.
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As of right now they say that the vote will happen today. But like yesterday, it could be moved to a later date. Though it looks like the Pres have given up the bill and it will go to vote even though it might not pass.
 
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Plumbob

Member
sc0la said:
If the alternatives are between 24 million people losing access to healthcare vs a bad look for GOP governing skills and setback of the republican agenda there is clearly a favored scenario. I would rather this not pass even if it meant a few more Rs keeping their seats in the midterm.

It's easy to say "I hope it passes and there is a bloodbath at midterms" if you have a some relative amount of privilege.
Click to expand...

Or are, you kmow, concerned about the climate.
 
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Blader

Member
Pandora012 said:
As of right now they say that the vote will happen today. But like yesterday, it could be moved to a later date. Though it looks like the Pres have given up the bill and it will go to vote even though it might not pass.
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This is another thing. So Trump is publicly and privately frustrated over the bill, daring to hold a vote today just to get House Rs on record for supporting/opposing it and then declaring he'll move on to something else if the bill fails, all while McConnell has plan B ready and able to go the second the House passes AHCA? Is McConnell's bill a secret even to Trump?
 
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balladofwindfishes

Member
Blader said:
This is another thing. So Trump is publicly and privately frustrated over the bill, daring to hold a vote today just to get House Rs on record for supporting/opposing it and then declaring he'll move on to something else if the bill fails, all while McConnell has plan B ready and able to go the second the House passes AHCA? Is McConnell's bill a secret even to Trump?
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Apparently it's secret to Ryan as well, since he's basically given up.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
So best case scenario is it passes the house and dies in the senate right? This horrifying abomination isn't inflicted on anyone and a whole lot of people running in 2018 suddenly get to run ads aimed at 58 year olds about how "Your current congressman voted to increase your taxes by almost $15,000"
 
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Box of Kittens

Banned
I think holding a vote and having it fail is by far the best outcome. You get a bunch of Republicans on record voting for a horrendously unpopular bill which can make for great attack ad sound bites, you embarrass Trump and the GOP House, and tens of millions of people don't lose their coverage.
 
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balladofwindfishes

Member
Box of Kittens said:
I think holding a vote and having it fail is by far the best outcome. You get a bunch of Republicans on record voting for a horrendously unpopular bill which can make for great attack ad sound bites, you embarrass Trump and the GOP House, and tens of millions of people don't lose their coverage.
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Yes, the vote failing is the best option, if only because it throws Ryan's career into question and I want to watch him squirm
 
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Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Interview with R whip a few minutes ago did not give any indication that progress had been made. First said "we've already flipped a lot of no votes" , then clarified he was referring to the pre-EHB assurance count. Said "the last few votes were always going to be the hardest". Did not rebuff NBC's count. Would only say the Pres wants a vote today so they intend to have it when asked if it would be pulled if they still don't have the votes this afternoon.

Long day though. Pence is involved now too.
 
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Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Box of Kittens said:
I think holding a vote and having it fail is by far the best outcome. You get a bunch of Republicans on record voting for a horrendously unpopular bill which can make for great attack ad sound bites, you embarrass Trump and the GOP House, and tens of millions of people don't lose their coverage.
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I'm on board with the best case scenario being this passes the House and gets crushed in the Senate. All of those GOP votes in the House would be on record and easily usable in 2018 campaigns.
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Have they even released the latest bill with any amendments?


EDIT: And on Nunes, I think he thinks he might be under investigation too, lmfao. He has dealings in Russia and was apart of the transition team.
 
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Blader

Member
Plinko said:
I'm on board with the best case scenario being this passes the House and gets crushed in the Senate. All of those GOP votes in the House would be on record and easily usable in 2018 campaigns.
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Wouldn't the best case scenario be the bill being voted on, and dying, in the House? You still get those Republicans accountable for their votes, without moving the legislation any further.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Plumbob said:
Or are, you kmow, concerned about the climate.
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False dichotomy, we can not throw millions of poor or sick people under the bus and still fight climate change. Also this is a perfect illustration of said privilege, being able to care about climate is a lot easier if you aren't worrying about losing your house to medical bankruptcy or managing untreated chronic illnesses.
 
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Pandora012

Member
Ziltoidia 9 said:
Have they even released the latest bill with any amendments?


EDIT: And on Nunes, I think he thinks he might be under investigation too, lmfao. He has dealings in Russia and was apart of the transition team.
Click to expand...

He should be after all this bullshit this week, not even including his connections with the campaign.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
I'd still argue it's better for the bill to fail in the House but you can certainly make a case for it passing the House and dying in the Senate being better. I really don't see the case that this bill being signed into law is the better outcome.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
I called my parents' representative's office (NC-6) to berate them over AHCA (my own rep is a firm no, NC-12).

I don't have much confidence it will work, his Twitter feed is 100% pro-Trump and pro-AHCA. But at least I spoke my mind.
 
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balladofwindfishes

Member
My fear is if it passes the House, Trump will have momentum as making a great deal and changing minds and it'll make it easier to get through the Senate. The media is drooling at the idea they can sell an amazing "comeback" for Trump as a fearless deal maker.

I want it dead, full stop, and provide the most embarrassment for Trump and Ryan
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
A Serious Man said:
What are the odds Nunes saw his own name/conversation in the intel?
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High. There are exactly two reasons to be acting the way he is right now. One, he's just that stupid, or two, he knows he's on the record somewhere and he's flailing wildly for any way to prevent the reckoning. The former we can safely set aside because if he were really *that* stupid he'd have tied his shoes together and fallen down a flight of stairs trying to until them a while ago.
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Tom Coburn just proved the point that you have to have full government into the healthcare market and he also said that doesn't matter what this bill does, it won't lower costs.
 
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