No but to the people he works with this makes it clear he isn't capable of making policy work
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.
- Thread starter ItWasMeantToBe19
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No but to the people he works with this makes it clear he isn't capable of making policy work
IggyChooChoo
Member
He's the master deal maker though. I don't see how his approval doesn't measurably drop if he can't repeal Obamacare despite controlling both chambers and the White House. Mitch McConnell's insight that voters over-attribute all events to the president applies to Trump, too. And Trump is looking impotent if this bill crashes.
Poodlestrike
Banned
There'll definitely be plenty of people willing to excuse Trump's failure here and blame Ryan and the HFC, but this is going to shake his image as some master deal maker and negotiator. Losing his first big public policy fight in what was supposed to be his strongest area is gonna harm his base's faith in his abilities.
Plus he gave up after 48 hours of difficulty. Dare I say a lack of that much-vaunted stamina?
neurosisxeno
Member
I'm not so sure. At least Hillary would have been competent, and I think Republicans would have been at least as dysfunctional. At worst she may have gotten Obama'd where she got stonewalled. But after 4 years I think she still would have won re-election and maybe Democrats turn it around in 2020.
It doesn't have to revolve around a direct line of causation.
For instance, Trump losing credibility costs him on the long run. Domestically maybe he could get away with it for a while because of full Republican control, but internationally nobody thinks he has credibility and therefore ignore his demands or rants or proposals.
If a domestic or foreign crisis happens, and Trump can't address it properly because he has no credibility, then the consequences of that can be further reaching than just the failure of a hastily put together healthcare bill.
Hillary would not have been a drag on the Democratic party in '18 unless things just went horribly wrong her first 2 years. Remember, the economy is still doing great and a hypothetical Hillary administration isn't going to be manufacturing crises left and right. The same caveats apply to her that apply to Trump, and any external event affecting her Presidency will affect his well. She'd at least be over 50% approval right now based on the economy alone.
Midterms are almost always bad for the party in the White House. And if a recalcitrant House refused to work with her and spent all their time investigating emails, Benghazi, the foundation, et al. then voters are going to be inundated for two years with more manufactured Clinton scandals and little, if any, legislative action to show for it.
Barack Obama rescued the economy from the worst financial crisis in nearly a century, passed a landmark piece of legislation to reform the American health care system, and scored a number of significant policy wins that most people *still* know little, if anything, about. And he was rewarded for it with the Tea Party wave. Hillary wouldn't be able to get nearly as much done, and she'd incite, on name alone, even more Republicans to turn out in '18 to vote against her/the Democrats.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This isn't going to pass
Also that Tweet
"could work"
"might work"
"don't know if it will work"
That's not confidence at all.
You got that out of the tweet?
Got the Shakes
Member
The Tigers could win the World Series
The Tigers might win the World Series
I don't know if the Tigers will win the World Series
Does that mean the Tigers are winning the World Series?
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
cartoon_soldier
Member
It will pass. If only because they know Senate will change it drastically.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
This feels like a season finale. Will it pass or not? Tune in at 5PM!
benicillin
Banned
No matter what happens it's bad for them, so they can pass it if they want. It's a garbage bill and there's no winning condition for them.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
And this is another reason why this bill failing will be the best thing for the republicans.
Pandora012
Member
Looks like he is personally going to try to do it. My question is who would replace Ryan if it were to happen? Not many jump after the opportunity for speaker of the house.
Now it's 5? Thought i was 2. I can't keep up with all these changes.
cartoon_soldier
Member
After the election, no celebration until like 2020 when we hopefully have a Dem President again.
balladofwindfishes
Member
There isn't time to do this.
There isn't a secret McConnell bill hiding somewhere
This isn't the plan
McConnell wasn't even going to take it to conference, the plan was to do a straight vote because there is no time to do anything else.
McConnell would need to rewrite the entire bill in a week and a half, make sure it passes for reconciliation, send it back to the house, and make sure they agree with the changes (which the FC won't)
IggyChooChoo
Member
Breitbart and Drudge being against it seems like a huge problem.I don't know
The notion that McConnel could shift the bill significantly to the left, and the house would then accept it, is such utter nonsense it staggers belief. Firstly, the HfC thinks THIS bill is too left wing, why the hell will they go for a worse bill (in their eyes).
And secondly, if McConnel could craft a healthcare bill to pass the senate and house he would have done! It wouldn't be some ultra secret thing that no-one can see.
This theory is honestly one of the most insane and ludicrous ever.
And secondly, if McConnel could craft a healthcare bill to pass the senate and house he would have done! It wouldn't be some ultra secret thing that no-one can see.
This theory is honestly one of the most insane and ludicrous ever.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
There is no benefit here. Trump losing on healthcare, his first foray into legislative politics, at a time when his WH is facing pressure on all sides, would be a disaster. It would ruin the party's entire legislative strategy which hinges on this law passing so they can move to tax reform.
Of course passing it would be a disaster too, there is no way to win here. But the president failing to pass his first major law in either body of congress would be the end of his ability to influence his party.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If it fails, Trump can shift blame (like he always does) on to Ryan and Freedom Caucus. The idea that it would "end his ability to influence his party" is laughable.
If it passes and it hurts millions of his own voters, he can't do that--he signed the bill.
metalslimer
Member
There is a reason McConnell isn't saying shit
shinra-bansho
Member
Well he barely has any legislative influence as it stands to begin with based on the response to this turd and his turd budget.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
This, too. Behind the scenes, House members are bristling about the forcefulness of how the White house is going about this.
Outdoor Miner
Member
House R's are FUCKED in 2018 if this passes. Best case scenario for them is this dies and they watch Ryan and Trump try to pin the failure on one another.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Some people seem to actually want this to pass just to fulfill their weird depressing world view that everything is terrible and nothing good will ever happen again because one time something bad and unexpected happened
BoogieWoogie
Banned
For real. People keep forgetting how terrible this bill is. Fucking Breitbart is rallying against it.
More_Badass
Member
It's frustrating because all the other discussion seems at least a tad hopeful, and then a comment like that is like a "oh, right, best to expect the worst" splash of cold water
cartoon_soldier
Member
Yay...fun.
The AARP is against it. The Heritage Foundation is against it. Their own constituents are against it by something like 10 to 1. It didn't have the votes to pass yesterday after a lot of last-minute strong-arming. The only reason it's getting a vote today is because Trump demanded it. But somehow it's going to pass today because... reasons.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Maybe it's him stepping down? A man can dream.
sunshine and gasoline
Banned
The best thing for Nunes to do would have been to keep his head down and hope that everyone forgot what he did while the battle over the health care bill was going on.
Didn't think of that but I don't believe that it will happened.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I think people reading random tweets from random people gives them a roller coaster of emotions because they're getting random bits of scattered stories told second hand, sometimes in passing or being overheard.
Looking at just these factors
- The country's largest lobby, AARP, is very much opposed to this law, and is threatening to shame every single person who votes for it
- The Heritage Foundation, the Conservatives "go to" think tank, is opposed to the bill and is threatening to score votes for the bill against people (and they take these scores seriously)
- The Koch brothers, the best known and one of the largest GOP donors is against it and is actively promising PAC support to anyone who votes against this
- Paul Ryan has stopped saying it's going to pass and has instead moved onto "it's going to be voted on" which means he's done
- The White House has completely given up. Trump is bored (and made that well known) and is already blaming people for the bill failing
- The yes/nos have only changed +/- a couple of votes over the last 24 hours, with it trending towards nos more. This isn't a good sign for a healthy bill that's about to pass
If this was any other bill, all those factors would mean it never even saw a vote, let alone passed.
A Serious Man
Member
He announced nothing interesting, other than Manafort volunteered to be interviewed by the intel committee.
Nunes and Schiff holding a presser or just Nunes?
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Also, Tom Price was out last night getting shitfaced instead of fervently trying to drum up support for this.
That's pretty interesting though!
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
Those are facts. We live in a post-facts world. You should know better.
I've been thinking he looks like he kid who just hit a baseball through a garage window whose dad is rounding the corner of the garage to see what happened.
What is wrong with this guy? Stop holding daily pressers and carry out your fucking investigation already.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I think we need to just start being a lot more specific here when we say "republicans" because for all intents and purposes we have 3 parties in Congress right now; The Dems, the GOP, and the HFC, and those last 2 are far enough away from each other to make this a legitimate separation. Nothing that the Senate would do to this bill would get HFC support; literally fucking nothing.
The "republicans fall in line" nonsense needs to go away. Their voters aren't particularly elastic, but the actual people will take stands when it threatens their jobs. No one who expects to get re-elected in red states with the Medicaid expansion is going to back this thing if it's got HFC support. It's political suicide. And to get those people on board, you lose the HFC.
This doesn't really happen though. It bit us in the ass for the last 6 years, but now it can help us; most Americans think the Presidency is a dictatorship where the President is responsible for everything that happens under them. Literally everything is their fault; it's why Donny can't get his approval ratings up by tweeting about "Dems keep blocking our shit, so sad!" because most Americans think that because he won the election, he can't be blocked.
He owns the next 4 years of shit.
Turning himself in to make a deal with the feds by confessing to his treasonous crimes?
A Serious Man
Member
Someone please put Nunes out of his misery.
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