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[kirblar]

Idk if it's been posted but NYT has an article on the Ossoff GA-6 race:

Why Democrats Have a Shot in a Georgia District Dominated by Republicans

If Ossoff prevents a runoff, Dems are primed to shoot the moon in '18.

 

[Plinko]

North Korea is scary as fuck and is the biggest threat to global stability. It won't even be nukes at least at first that draws everything into chaos. NK has an insane amount of artillery pointed at Seoul. That's how it would all start. Essentially a destruction of Seoul, drawing SK allies to fight a ground war, then the nukes would start going off.

I still don't see why they would do it though other than complete insanity. They would be wiped off the map, again. The US pretty much bombed them to oblivion 60+ years ago. Not sure why they would want to do it all again.

If NK did anything in that region, China would probably take care of them first, no?

 

[Dan]

He really needs to get better at the teleprompter. He was practically giving a report in third grade at times.

I think his reading ability limits him on that front.

 

[BlastProcessing]

CNN is alright. I get why they have pundits on all networks do. Lord will be flipping out tonight and the others probably during Cooper.

Jake Tappers show will be amazing probably sadly can't watch at work.

CNN is not all right. Example:

@resnikoff
Steve King, who two weeks ago was defending nationalist racial purity, is now back on CNN as a standard House GOP caucus surrogate.

CNN's ratings chasing bullshit has done real and lasting harm to this country.

 

[PantherLotus]

The Burr presser today was the most promising thing from the entire Russia story yet. Amazing how a sober commitment to following the intelligence can be mollifying.

 

[Third Strike]

If Ossoff prevents a runoff, Dems are primed to shoot the moon in '18.

I'm hoping we do well in Montana too. But I'm guessing SC-5 is out of reach for Democrats. Funny, since the district was blue for a century right up until Mulvaney was elected. SC-5 has a lower PVI score than GA-6 does, and contains the suburbs of Charlotte and Columbia in it, so maybe the race there could become competitive, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I'm getting a minor in math and I have no idea what that graph is trying to say still.

I've seen student work that went for something similar. I think the goal is to zoom in on both trends to get less smoothing so you can make some argument. It's not even that bad to do the double axis since you may be arguing for the rates of change between the two groups being different, but to zoom in so much is dishonest. When students do it, it's because they wanted their data to show something at all, while that data there seems to just mostly hold steady.

Republicans were pushing for a repeal and/or a replacement for years, but once they got into power many of them got cold feet.

I am skeptical of a single-payer system passing in Congress. Once the details about the increase in taxes( which is likely) comes out, I think it may not be very popular and the Dems will get cold feet. I think the Democrats will devolve into infighting similar to how the Republicans did. Although, it would be more about the details of the bill, I think.

I don't think single payer should be the rallying cry for this reason. We should just say UHC is the goal; the method isn't even that important. We should bank our opposition on "when we get our bill made, the CBO is going to say we'll get the insured rate up to >90%!!" or something. This current situation should be a learning exercise for us.

 

[jtb]

have the 2016 PVI been released yet?

 

[~Kinggi~]

The Burr presser today was the most promising thing from the entire Russia story yet. Amazing how a sober commitment to following the intelligence can be mollifying.

Eh i need to watch it still but i saw a snip and it was him with a smirk on his face as he said that the investigation scope did NOT include the incentives for Russia to do what they are doing and why Trump never says a negative thing about them. Burr is a shitbag and was completely in the Trump bag last year. This is an act of theatrics to make this appear bi-partisan.

 

[nintendoman58]

I've completely lost track of all this Russia stuff going on. There's been so much info at once I don't know what to expect.

Can anyone offer a summary or something?

Anyone? Just to give me an idea of what's going on as of now?

 

[Surfinn]

Damn Schiff just said on CNN that the closest relatable investigation to the current one is Watergate.

 

[Deuce Deuce]

FBI Director James Comey Tried to Reveal Russian Tampering Months Before Election

http://www.newsweek.com/fbi-director-james-comey-russian-tampering-election-576417

FBI Director James Comey attempted to go public as early as the summer of 2016 with information on Russia’s campaign to influence the U.S. presidential election, but Obama administration officials blocked him from doing so, two sources with knowledge of the matter tell Newsweek.

Well before the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence accused the Russian government of tampering with the U.S. election in an October 7 statement, Comey pitched the idea of writing an op-ed about the Russian campaign during a meeting in the White House’s situation room in June or July.

“He had a draft of it or an outline. He held up a piece of paper in a meeting and said, ‘I want to go forward, what do people think of this?’” says a source with knowledge of the meeting, which included Secretary of State John Kerry, Attorney General Loretta Lynch, the Department of Homeland Security’s director and the national security adviser.

Read more: FBI director confirms probe into possible Trump-Russia ties

The other national security leaders didn’t like the idea, and White House officials thought the announcement should be a coordinated message backed by multiple agencies, the source says. “An op-ed doesn’t have the same stature, it comes from one person.”

Thanks, Obama.

 

[OmniOne]

FBI Director James Comey Tried to Reveal Russian Tampering Months Before Election

http://www.newsweek.com/fbi-director-james-comey-russian-tampering-election-576417



Thanks, Obama.

He's right. An Op-Ed is a bad idea.

 

[ZOONAMI]

If NK did anything in that region, China would probably take care of them first, no?

Yes, potentially China would rush ground forces into NK as a buffer.

You could end up with Korean War 2.0 though which was Essentially a US vs China proxy war.

China could see it as an opportunity to escalate Taiwan, then Japan gets involved, and yeah you're pretty much at full blown wwiii at that point.

 

[Infinite Stars]

FBI Director James Comey Tried to Reveal Russian Tampering Months Before Election

http://www.newsweek.com/fbi-director-james-comey-russian-tampering-election-576417



Thanks, Obama.

Except Obama's not wrong. Trump had shown even at that point in the year that he could deflect anything coming from one source, which Comey's reveal/Op-Ed would have been.

By saving it until after the election, Obama effectively was letting them build a bulletproof case. Unfortunately, Obama, much like everyone else in Washington, though Hillary was going to win. As such, everything got fucked when the suspect of an active Investigation into Treason is suddenly the most powerful man in America.

Basically, I see it as Obama wanting to crush Trump beyond a shadow of a doubt, because if you don't get him on the first hit with the ammo(Grab'em By the Pussy), it's not going to stick.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

FBI Director James Comey Tried to Reveal Russian Tampering Months Before Election

http://www.newsweek.com/fbi-director-james-comey-russian-tampering-election-576417



Thanks, Obama.

An op-ed was a terrible idea. He made the right call.

This was also summer 2016, when Trump's campaign was imploding due to multiple bad news stories. By the time the debates started, news about Russian tampering was widespread. There was even a debate about it, which millions of people watched. And he still won.

 

[ZOONAMI]

FBI Director James Comey Tried to Reveal Russian Tampering Months Before Election

http://www.newsweek.com/fbi-director-james-comey-russian-tampering-election-576417



Thanks, Obama.

An op-ed would have been terrible from an optics perspective.

They definitely should have arranged "a leak" on the investigation though.

It's difficult to say though. You would have had the right screaming partisan BS fake news during the last stage of the campaign. It may have just helped trump.

I don't think it was necessary the wrong move for the WH to just stay removed until there was concrete findings from the investigation.

 

[Stinkles]

Anyone? Just to give me an idea of what's going on as of now?

Multiple advisors and members of staff from Trump's current and transition teams have been objectively caught with suspicious, compromising or career-fatal (General Flynn, Jeff Sessions) ties to Russian oligarchs and in some cases, FSB operatives.

The current lead of the house committee investigating Russian ties, has behaved in what can only be described as bizarrely compromising a suspicious activities, including leaking information to the press, which he appeared to have received directly from the Whitehouse, to make Trump's crazy Obama claim seem fractionally more legit.

Every single aspect of the Steele Dossier so far remains credible.

GOP is circling its wagons and panicking slowly but treasonously.

 

[metalslimer]

People hated Hillary so much it probably would have slid off along with his fucking sexual assault charges which I kid you not some Republicans don't even remember

 

[Hooligan69]

Well listening to the report on North Korea on NPR was terrifying.

I wonder if the fat dictator will start a nuclear holocaust? Thankfully trump is on the case to stop him (lol)

I still hold faith that if and when he does try, the missile will fail and explode in NK. If not, then we'll intercept it over the Pacific Ocean.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

I've seen student work that went for something similar. I think the goal is to zoom in on both trends to get less smoothing so you can make some argument. It's not even that bad to do the double axis since you may be arguing for the rates of change between the two groups being different, but to zoom in so much is dishonest. When students do it, it's because they wanted their data to show something at all, while that data there seems to just mostly hold steady.

It's even weirder because you don't have to skew the data in such a stupid way to make the point! It's just "white people are dying at the same rates from non-"deaths of despair" while those metrics are improving for black people, but white deaths due to "deaths of despair" are rising at a rapid and disturbing pace. No need to try and make it look like white people die more from heart disease necessary!

 

[pigeon]

I've seen student work that went for something similar. I think the goal is to zoom in on both trends to get less smoothing so you can make some argument. It's not even that bad to do the double axis since you may be arguing for the rates of change between the two groups being different, but to zoom in so much is dishonest. When students do it, it's because they wanted their data to show something at all, while that data there seems to just mostly hold steady.



I don't think single payer should be the rallying cry for this reason. We should just say UHC is the goal; the method isn't even that important. We should bank our opposition on "when we get our bill made, the CBO is going to say we'll get the insured rate up to >90%!!" or something. This current situation should be a learning exercise for us.

Dumb question but why not just graph the derivatives if you're trying to compare the derivatives

 

[BlastProcessing]

Eh i need to watch it still but i saw a snip and it was him with a smirk on his face as he said that the investigation scope did NOT include the incentives for Russia to do what they are doing and why Trump never says a negative thing about them. Burr is a shitbag and was completely in the Trump bag last year. This is an act of theatrics to make this appear bi-partisan.

Do yourself a favor and watch it before you comment on it.

 

[CygnusXS]

People hated Hillary so much it probably would have slid off along with his fucking sexual assault charges which I kid you not some Republicans don't even remember

I think the best argument you can make about it in hindsight probably isn't that it would have hurt Trump, but that it may have mitigated some of the Comey Effect damage against Hillary in the last week of the election.

If Trump is openly under investigation at that point, it may have deterred the last minute switch voters who were turned off by Hillary's supposed new investigation.

 

[pigeon]

One of the big takeaways from last year was that America's theoretically nonpartisan institutions are extremely weak due to polarization.

Basically our government completely fucked up on responding to the hacking because it was targeted towards helping one party. This made the Democrats timid and the Republicans willing to collaborate, which resulted in a completely botched counterintelligence response.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Dumb question but why not just graph the derivatives if you're trying to compare the derivatives

Not a dumb question. You'd have to do it piecewise since it's not a smooth curve, and also people reading your report (since I assume this was in some reporting and not an academic paper? correct if wrong) probably don't know a lot about derivatives and if the curves are obviously changing a lot then most people just want to see "it changes a lot" instead of "it changes a lot according to this function on these intervals."

Edit: and yeah, I agree with your second post here too. It's interesting that we've gotten far away from political norms in some respects (blocking nominees, etc...) while getting really rigid in others (we can't state that we have evidence of criminal activity because this person is part of the opposition and it would look tacky to talk poorly of them).

It's even weirder because you don't have to skew the data in such a stupid way to make the point! It's just "white people are dying at the same rates from non-"deaths of despair" while those metrics are improving for black people, but white deaths due to "deaths of despair" are rising at a rapid and disturbing pace. No need to try and make it look like white people die more from heart disease necessary!

I don't get it either Seems like trying to rob an abandoned building; you might pull off the deception but there's not really a payoff for it to be worth the effort!

 

[~Kinggi~]

Do yourself a favor and watch it before you comment on it.

Yeah im a bit more positive on it after watching. At least these guys are better actors at it. The D standing up there certainly was eager to keep throwing bones about shit. And they didnt really beat around the bush when it came to just confronting the fact Trump himself might have been guilty. Also positive because FBI is still doing their thing. This intel thing is like the public dumbed down version of that. It is literally a mechanism to slowly manipulate the public and bring them information that doesnt cause the diehard trumpets head to explode, but rather let them slowly see the light.

 

[Ogodei]

More evidence that something's up with Nunes, because what the Senate GOP is doing is the professional way of going about these things. You go in and you prove there's nothing there, any obfuscation you do to make sure you get the result you want is done quietly and behind closed doors, not on every cable pundit show and in the most ham-handed way possible.

Hopefully he goes to jail before a chance at reelection too.

 

[ultratruman]

Nvm

 

[Plinko]

I have a feeling the entire collective of Nunes actions, statements, and video is going to be compiled and used in the future as a, "This is how people who don't usually commit crimes act when they've been caught committing a crime" lesson.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Yeah im a bit more positive on it after watching. At least these guys are better actors at it. The D standing up there certainly was eager to keep throwing bones about shit. And they didnt really beat around the bush when it came to just confronting the fact Trump himself might have been guilty. Also positive because FBI is still doing their thing. This intel thing is like the public dumbed down version of that. It is literally a mechanism to slowly manipulate the public and bring them information that doesnt cause the diehard trumpets head to explode, but rather let them slowly see the light.

That was pretty much my impression as well. My only addendum is that it's also possible that the FBI finds nothing of substance and this hearings purpose is to lay out the facts of the case to Democrats. Either way, we need a bipartisan group to lay out the evidence for the country.

Speaking of evidence, another shoe, she's a dropping:

CNN: Bank that Kushner met with paid Russian intelligence agent's legal tab

 

[Poodlestrike]

Diverting from the Russia stuff for just one sec, found a fun little Twitterbot that basically just posts when the Senate or House IP address makes a Wikipedia edit, and what is edited. Most of it's pretty banal stuff, but some is more significant.

https://twitter.com/congressedits

Most of the really dumb stuff gets reverted (thanks, Wiki editors!), but it's still pretty cool to get a close-up look at the intentions in a weirdly personal kind of way.

Also, Congress got jokes: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?diff=768258324&oldid=768258172

Also somebody in the Senate is pretty determined to remove references to Assyrians from the article on Chaldean Neo-Aramaic and that's weird.

 

[Chumley]

I have a feeling the entire collective of Nunes actions, statements, and video is going to be compiled and used in the future as a, "This is how people who don't usually commit crimes act when they've been caught committing a crime" lesson.

Fuck man, it goes all the way back to summer '16. Ever since Trump said "I love Wikileaks" it's been so obvious. He still thinks he's untouchable and that he's going to get away with this, and with Ivanka taking a WH job I'm guessing she does too. His entire family is completely in the bubble to an incomprehensible degree.

 

[Fenderputty]

FBI Director James Comey Tried to Reveal Russian Tampering Months Before Election

http://www.newsweek.com/fbi-director-james-comey-russian-tampering-election-576417



Thanks, Obama.

This explains why Dumblrdor didn't publicly reprimand Snape during the email fiasco. IIRC he showed a vote of confidence actually.

 

[chadskin]

according to three people who were present, Bush gave a brief assessment of Trump’s inaugural after leaving the dais: “That was some weird shit.” All three heard him say it.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligence...sh-really-thought-of-trumps-inauguration.html

Indeed it was, George, indeed it was.

 

[Sibylus]

Comey tried to reveal Russian plot before election — Obama administration officials blocked: report



http://www.rawstory.com/2017/03/com...ction-obama-administration-officials-blocked/

They were so goddamn sure Hillary would win.

SMFH. All the evils that might have been avoided had some folks been braver than they were afraid of being called partisan.

 

[Chumley]

SMFH. All the evils that might have been avoided had some folks been braver than they were afraid of being called partisan.

Trump winning the election but then being brought down by Comey after running the government incompetently for however many months would probably end up being better for the Democrats in the long run.

If this is as big as everyone thinks it is, the entire Republican party is fucked. They'd have nothing to fall back on because they also proved to be utterly unprepared to govern.

Obama still wins, the only big downsides is SCOTUS and whatever irreversible actions Trump has put in place.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Damn you dubya you're making it hard to remember how awful you were

Bradd Jaffy @BraddJaffy
More
"That was some weird shit." — George W. Bush's reaction to Trump's inaugural address, 3 sources tell @yashar

Whoa Carl Bernstein said 'as a reporter' that the intelligence community is aware theres a coverup

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Trump winning the election but then being brought down by Comey after running the government incompetently for however many months would probably end up being better for the Democrats in the long run.

I'm trying to tell myself that, but its real hard man. Trump already being less popular that Reagan during Iran Contra or Clinton during his impeachment helps though.

Brian Klaas‏Verified account
@brianklaas

Days before dropping to 35% approval rating:

Obama: Never
W Bush: 1,927
Clinton: Never
HW Bush: 1,278
Reagan: Never
Carter: 840

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Damn you dubya you're making it hard to remember how awful you were

Ha! That's funny!

Dubya was indeed an awful president but at least he never struck me as a genuinely awful human being.

 

[Sibylus]

Trump winning the election but then being brought down by Comey after running the government incompetently for however many months would probably end up being better for the Democrats in the long run.

If this is as big as everyone thinks it is, the entire Republican party is fucked. They'd have nothing to fall back on because they also proved to be utterly unprepared to govern.

Obama still wins, the only big downsides is SCOTUS and whatever irreversible actions Trump has put in place.

Trump has shown that running on white supremacist fascism and contempt for democracy is a winning strategy, and hurt many people in his short time in office. 2018 and 2020 alone can't offset that long term damage. This fight is only beginning.

 

[CygnusXS]

Here's a nice article for you guys that actually talks to non-white people who could be victims of Trump's policies. It's about dairy farm labourers in Vermont.

Fun note:

According to a 2015 study by Texas A&M University for the National Milk Producers Federation, immigrant labour makes up 51 per cent of the dairy industry's workforce. Removing those workers, the report says, would lead to milk prices increasing 90 per cent and cost the U.S. economy more than $32 billion.

 

[Chumley]

Trump has shown that running on white supremacist fascism and contempt for democracy is a winning strategy, and hurt many people in his short time in office. 2018 and 2020 alone can't offset that long term damage. This fight is only beginning.

There will absolutely be long term damage but if the Dems capitalize on all of this the right way, they'll win everything back. It's there for the taking. Trump is the worst President in American history even if none of this Russia shit ever happened.

 

[whyamihere]

Past Gallup lows: http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polli...ource=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

Trump: 35%*
Obama: 38%
W: 25%
Clinton: 37%
HW: 29%
Reagan: 35%
Carter: 28%
Ford: 37%
Nixon: 24%
LBJ: 35%
Kennedy: 56%
Eisenhower: 48%
Truman: 22%

 

[Sibylus]

There will absolutely be long term damage but if the Dems capitalize on all of this the right way, they'll win everything back. It's there for the taking. Trump is the worst President in American history even if none of this Russia shit ever happened.

Even if Dems "win everything back", long term they have to check the rise of fascism and counterattack or this will have all been for nothing. 2016 has consequences that will be with us for decades.

 

[Grexeno]

Past Gallup lows: http://www.gallup.com/opinion/pollin...campaign=tiles

Trump: 35%*
Obama: 38%
W: 25%
Clinton: 37%
HW: 29%
Reagan: 35%
Carter: 28%
Ford: 37%
Nixon: 24%
LBJ: 35%
Kennedy: 56%
Eisenhower: 48%
Truman: 22%

Man how the hell did Truman get below Nixon?

 

[Tommy DJ]

Trump has shown that running on white supremacist fascism and contempt for democracy is a winning strategy, and hurt many people in his short time in office. 2018 and 2020 alone can't offset that long term damage. This fight is only beginning.

The fact that Trump even got as far as he did is enough proof that running on such a platform is a viable strategy. He didn't need to win for the next Republican candidate run the exact same platform but without the insanity he offered.

Assuming the USA gets out of this presidency without some military coup or something, its probably better in the long run for the USA if only because I have zero doubt that Hillary Clinton would have been a single term president in such a hostile congress and the Democratic Party wouldn't be in the process of positively rebuilding their foundations. 2020 would have probably been a disaster.

The sheer visceral reaction that a lot of white America had towards black people simply asking police officers to be held accountable when killing people is enough proof that racism and authoritarianism was already popular or acceptable among a lot of Americans. Trump winning didn't suddenly make these things popular...it was always popular, particularly on the internet, and Trump is really just the end result.

 

[Sibylus]

The fact that Trump even got as far as he did is enough proof that running on such a platform is a viable strategy. He didn't need to win for the next Republican candidate run the exact same platform but without the insanity he offered.

Assuming the USA gets out of this presidency without some military coup or something, its probably better in the long run for the USA if only because I have zero doubt that Hillary Clinton would have been a single term president in such a hostile congress and they wouldn't be in the process of positively rebuilding their foundations.

The sheer visceral reaction that a lot of white America had towards black people simply asking police officers to be held accountable for killing people is enough proof that racism and authoritarianism was already popular or acceptable among a lot of Americans. Trump winning didn't suddenly make these things popular...it was always popular, particularly on the internet, and Trump is really just the end result.

White supremacism has always been palatable, no disagreement there. Specifically married to fascism to make it all go down smoother, that's the nascent existential danger to which I refer.

 

[Holmes]

his fucking sexual assault charges which I kid you not some Republicans don't even remember

Sometimes I think back at this and I'm just so shocked. I almost have a panic attack. The President once said he wanted to grab a married woman..well you know the quote.

On the other hand, sometimes I remember Ana Navarro's reactions and freak outs over this and it's worth it.

 

[TiredofWinning]

Man how the hell did Truman get below Nixon?

Firing MacCarthur

Best decision Truman ever made.