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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.

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T

tmarg

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
Tons of snow wouldn't really be different from now, but could I get away with not owning a car? That's sort of been my dream since high school, to get around just on public transportation or walking. One of the most exciting parts of visiting Chicago this year was being able to ride the light rail or bus everywhere I needed to go.

or water

lifeless deserts with no hope suck
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Lansing probably isn't the best choice if that's your goal. The campus is really big and more segregated from the rest of the city than the other schools I've attended. It's still possible, but probably easier elsewhere.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Nate Cohn pointed out that Dem turnout has consistently outpaced GOP turnout in every special election thus far.

Good job everyone, we solved our turnout problem! And all we had to do was elect Donald Fucking Trump!
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It's almost enough to make me think our midterm issue had more to do with having a Democratic president than Democrats just not showing up for midterms. But I suppose if that were true there would be some evidence. Hypothetically, there would be decades worth of evidence that this was the case.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
It's almost enough to make me think our midterm issue had more to do with having a Democratic president than Democrats just not showing up for midterms. But I suppose if that were true there would be some evidence. Hypothetically, there would be decades worth of evidence that this was the case.
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I feel Trump himself has something to do with it. Would anyone be this upset if Kasich was president?

But yes, overall there's ample evidence that off-year turnout simply favors the out party.
 
J

jtb

Banned
I think for the 2016 election, Google Consumer Surveys was open that they did 50 state polls, but did not weight the individual state results -- just releasing them for transparency/cross-tab purposes. Pretty sure 538 didn't weight the individual state polls in their calculus either. Maybe for trend lines, idk.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Nate Cohn pointed out that Dem turnout has consistently outpaced GOP turnout in every special election thus far.

Good job everyone, we solved our turnout problem! And all we had to do was elect Donald Fucking Trump!
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At this point people will be wearing McArdle was Right shirts in a few years.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Both those things are true but it does put a damper on hopium. I want these clowns railroaded out of every elected seat in the government.
 
B

Barzul

Member
Interesting article not sure if posted.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...oms/521940/?utm_source=poltw#article-comments

Rand Paul and Ron Wyden are sponsoring a bill to stop what they (and I) see as unconstitutional searches of Americans smartphones, laptops and being forced to reveal passwords or face delays at the border. Wonder if Trump would even sign it, if this passed?

This whole thing has been a insult to the 4th amendment imo. The only reason Border Patrol has any power is because the constitution gives it to them, so how can they just ignore one of it's amendments like the border is neither here or there.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Barzul said:
Interesting article not sure if posted.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...oms/521940/?utm_source=poltw#article-comments

Rand Paul and Ron Wyden are sponsoring a bill to stop what they (and I) see as unconstitutional searches of Americans smartphones, laptops and being forced to reveal passwords or face delays at the border. Wonder if Trump would even sign it, if this passed?

This whole thing has been a insult to the 4th amendment imo. The only reason Border Patrol has any power is because the constitution gives it to them, so how can they just ignore one of it's amendments like the border is neither here or there.
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Good for them.
 
H

Hooligan69

Member
RastaMentality said:
Nikki sounds like she's operating completely separate of the administration though. Nothing she's saying holds any weight.
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I thought she was given that appointment to get her the fuck outta dodge, so she wouldn't run in 2020 against him. She was seen as a potential threat. Who knows...
 
B

BoogieWoogie

Banned
Do you ever notice that Trump makes the duck face when he's doing "blue collar things"? Doing the wave, driving the truck, wearing the hard hat?
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
@JuddLegum
Russian propaganda network hires Breitbart reporter https://goo.gl/Typ5xg
C8rUekTWsAAUvfO.jpg


What a quote.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Act Blue: $112m donations processed in Q1 2017

um, holy shit?

We handled nearly $112 million from over 4 million contributions during Q1. For context, ActBlue was founded in 2004 and we didn't reach 4 million total contributions in the lifetime of the organization until 2012.
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Q1 13: $16,904,456
Q1 15: $26,903,206

The less reliant Dems are on big money donors, the better. Both Sanders and Trump very shrewdly and effectively used the puppet line of attack.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
jtb said:
The less reliant Dems are on big money donors, the better. Both Sanders and Trump very shrewdly and effectively used the puppet line of attack.
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Will anyone be able to amass a small money donor war chest again like Sanders did with Reddit? Maybe another site.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
RastaMentality said:
Will anyone be able to amass a small money donor war chest again like Sanders did with Reddit? Maybe another site.
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Jon Ossoff seems to be doing a good job of that, but he has the benefit of running in the only high profile election right now.

If he makes it out of the primary, Perriello might be a compelling candidate for that sort of energy.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Jon Ossoff seems to be doing a good job of that, but he has the benefit of running in the only high profile election right now.

If he makes it out of the primary, Perriello might be a compelling candidate for that sort of energy.
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Anyone else read this article about the Montana special election to replace Zinke?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...uge-blow-to-trump_us_58e3fcc5e4b03a26a3670c30

Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) was the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s national mobilization chair in 2016. “Montana special election?” Clyburn said, when HuffPost asked if the DCCC planned to get more involved in the race. Somebody nearby told him the race was to replace Zinke. “Oh, I didn’t know about that,” Clyburn said.
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I mean.... come on.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
jtb said:
Anyone else read this article about the Montana special election to replace Zinke?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...uge-blow-to-trump_us_58e3fcc5e4b03a26a3670c30



I mean.... come on.
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I said it before in the thread but the DCCC's treatment of the Montana special election is probably prudent. If Quist is going to win, it's going to be because Montana voters like him better than Gianforte. Gianforte isn't particularly well liked in Montana, a state with a strong independent streak. One of the major attacks against Gianforte when he ran for Governor last year was that he campaigned with a New Jersey millionaire. He was framed as someone who was bought by outside interests and would sell Montana out.

Bullock won a close race by running behind that. Democrats need to be wary of being seen as outside meddlers. In a race between Quist and Gianforte, Quist stands an outside chance. If it becomes a race between the Democratic and Republican Parties, Gianforte wins by 15+.
 
M

mo60

Member
whyamihere said:
They are a bad pollster.
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I remember they had polls showing trump winning like somewhere between 20 and 40 percent of the vote last year in DC. They did eventually show trump polling closer to what he got in DC closer to November 8th but they were still way off with Clinton.
 
M

Makai

Member
metalslimer said:
The North Korea situation is scary as fuck. One area where isolationist ideas of Bannon would come in handly.
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It really puts into perspective how arrogant mutually assured destruction is. It's awesome that we don't have total wars anymore, but that could be due more to hegemony and international institutions. And even if MAD is the reason for peace, it comes with elevated risk of annihilating much of human civilization. And when the game theoretic foundation is prisoners dilemma or chicken, gtfo
 
N

NullPointer

Member
Barzul said:
This whole thing has been a insult to the 4th amendment imo. The only reason Border Patrol has any power is because the constitution gives it to them, so how can they just ignore one of it's amendments like the border is neither here or there.
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I'm no lawyer but I don't think the 4th amendment applies all that much to borders (and possibly ports).
 
T

Team Alucard

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Yeah, I think that will be key for an online fundraising strategy. When Sanders endorsed a few House candidates last year (Teachout was one, the NV-4 candidate too? And one other?) they got huge surges in donations.

Here's that Cohn article I mentioned earlier:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/...dterm-turnout-that-seems-ready-to-change.html

C8p-m4CWAAI2Y-6.jpg
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You have to take into account the political leanings of the districts. These arent statewide races. For example, that Iowa Special election was for the Senate seat that represents Davenport, the 2nd most liberal city in the state after Iowa City.
 
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